Invest 96L: Organizing in the Gulf

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:17 AM GMT on July 08, 2010

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Hi everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff while he's on vacation.

Invest 96L appears to be in the process of developing into a tropical cyclone. The strength and extent of it's thunderstorms is much improved from yesterday (I used CIMMS tropical storm page for my analysis). It's under an upper-level anticyclone which promotes development because it efficiently removes "exhaust" from the thunderstorms. Shear is relatively low (~10 knots), and SST's are adequate for supporting a tropical cyclone (~28 deg. C). In the most recent Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC mentioned that research flights found that upper-level conditions were promising for storm development, so they assess the chances of 96L of becoming a tropical cyclone at 80%. My take is that 96L has an 80% chance of becoming TD #2, and about a 40% chance of being named Bonnie. My reasoning is that 96L has about 24 hours to intensify before interactions with land start interfering with intensification processes. Also, model intensity forecasts are not very supportive of 96L attaining tropical storm force winds. The model track forecast aids have 96L's center of circulation making landfall somewhere between Brownsville and Corpus Christi.

Impacts
The 12Z operational GFS, HWRF, NOGAPS, and 18Z NAM tell a similar story about the surface winds. Near tropical-storm force winds affect the Texas coast from Corpus Christi to Matagorda Bay. A broad area of 30+ mph winds also affects the Deepwater Horizon oil spill recovery efforts. The 12Z Canadian global model downplays the wind strengths, and the 12Z parallel GFS fails to develop any significant surface wind (> 20 mph). That said, I believe that 96L's greatest impact will be in the form of rain.

The Rio Grande from Del Rio to Laredo is either at major flood stage or is forecast to reach major flood stage in the next 24 hours. This is due to Alex and the moisture he brought to the high terrain of northern Mexico. Nearly all of the forecast models I've looked at forecast 2-3 inches of rain over the Rio Grande Valley in the next 5 days. That will only encourage more flooding. The main forecast problem is how much rain will fall along the Gulf Coast. The parallel GFS and HWRF suggest that 4.5 to 6.5 inches of rain will fall in the Galveston/Houston area in the next 5 days. In my opinion, people living in this area should be prepared for flooding.


Fig. 1. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z parallel GFS. Operational GFS


Fig. 2. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z HWRF.


Fig. 3. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z Canadian global model. NOGAPS

Emergency Preparations
People living along the Gulf coast from south of the Rio Grande to the Texas/Louisiana border should review their emergency preparations (hurricane preparations also make for good flood preparations). Jeff has put together a guide to hurricane preparedness with plenty of links for more information.

Next Update
If 96L becomes TD2 or Bonnie, I'll have an update tonight. Shaun Tanner may post something in the morning if that's when the naming occurs. Otherwise, I'll post a tropical update tomorrow afternoon.

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Quoting extreme236:


By then people will probably be bashing them for not being aggressive enough..."thats obviously a major hurricane how can they be so dumb"


It will be the same people too.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
Hmm their discussion isn't out yet, maybe they are "afraid" to post it? lol jk jk...
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7334
Quoting muddertracker:
I'm sure you are correct :) I was just making a funny..sorry, perhaps now is not the time for jokes...


Lol it's fine, people are just freaking out right now.
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The declaration of TD2 was a decent call.

Not all depression are supposed to have a -90C CDO and extensive banding. Some of you are just comparing this to pre-Alex, which is totally wrong.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Reed...I see a change in you! Taking it with a sense of humor. All of us make predictions that we believe are right...and turn out otherwise.
Geoff, either u develop a sense of humor, or u end up crazy, off the blog, or both.... lol
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None of the stations in the Mobile, AL market even know that 96L has been upgraded very sad
Member Since: January 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529
535. JLPR2
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Yeah, thats exactly why they classified this.

Let the NHC bashing continue...



Yeah...
This one sort of reminds me of TD 2-E, that one vanished from existence. :O LOL!

First Ascat pass: LOOK A CLOSED LOW
Next Ascat pass: WTH happened to the low? LOL!
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
That's nothing...Get ready for what's to come in August, September, and October.


By then people will probably be bashing them for not being aggressive enough..."thats obviously a major hurricane how can they be so dumb"
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You know, as all you guys get paid to blog about tropical weather and they're just a bunch of unprofessional mets right?
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
Quoting extreme236:


I'm sure, especially with TD 2, there were more than 2 forecasters making this call by themselves.
I'm sure you are correct :) I was just making a funny..sorry, perhaps now is not the time for jokes...
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Yeah, thats exactly why they classified this.

Let the NHC bashing continue...

That's nothing...Get ready for what's to come in August, September, and October.
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I think its best if most of us bow out of here tonight or go to another blog, because the NHC bashing will not stop for hours and we know it
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The fact of the matter is that this is a Tropical Depression (chuckles).. We must (lol) respect it as a TD (giggles).. Ok, lets move on to the track and strength of this weird little cridder.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7334
Quoting Levi32:


ECMWF


Thanks Levi.
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526. 900MB
Quoting reedzone:
If TD2 pulls a Humberto tomorrow, serve me a feast of crow! :P


Crow for 2 pleazzeee.
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it will be
whatever it will be
thats the way they do it see
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U.S. launch website for Gulf oil spill

......WASHINGTON - The U.S. government Wednesday launched a new website to give information on the Gulf of Mexico oil spill, moving away from the portal jointly run with oil giant BP.

Coast Guard Admiral Thad Allen, the top government official handling the spill, said the site www.RestoreTheGulf.gov was "designed to serve as a one-stop repository for news, data and operational updates related to administration-wide efforts to stop the BP oil leak."
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Yeah, thats exactly why they classified this.

Let the NHC bashing continue...



He's about as correct as Reed saying TD 2 wouldnt be red at 8pm and wouldn't become a TD tonight. He said look at reality. That reality is looking a lot different now huh?
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522. JLPR2
Quoting reedzone:
If TD2 pulls a Humberto tomorrow, serve me a feast of crow! :P


I'll probably choke on crow if that happens LOL!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Anyone have the link to the ECMWF???


Yeah, but the European doesn't develope it. Here it is anyway:
Link
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Quoting IKE:
Should evacuations begin?



Well yea...... at the NHC after they pull the fire alarm! LOL

Is there a thunderstorm within 100 miles of the LLC? :D
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519. IKE
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
NHC thinking Brownsville landfall.


I've got their radar up on long range. I'm having a hard time seeing any squalls on Bonnie's west side....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
518. 900MB
Quoting IKE:
Should evacuations begin?



We are gonna have fun with this one!

Beware the naked swirl!!!
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Quoting tropics21:
we had 45 mph winds in the midwest this week and last week does that mean we had a tropical depression ?lol they just want to make their quota of storms fior the year


Yeah, thats exactly why they classified this.

Let the NHC bashing continue...

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Time for Dr. Carver to change the title...
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TD2 makes me sleepy.
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Quoting muddertracker:
Wasn't it Stewart and Cangialosi that posted four circles the other night?


I'm sure, especially with TD 2, there were more than 2 forecasters making this call by themselves.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Anyone have the link to the ECMWF???


ECMWF
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511. IKE
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
The world is filled with impressive systems tonight!

Invest 91C



Looks as good as major cane TD2/Bonnie.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
If TD2 pulls a Humberto tomorrow, serve me a feast of crow! :P
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7334
Quoting muddertracker:
Wasn't it Stewart and Cangialosi that posted four circles the other night?


Those circles were just fine.
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Quoting JLPR2:
I guess convection is not everything? :\
Not for a tropical depression to be classified.
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Quoting tropics21:
we had 45 mph winds in the midwest this week and last week does that mean we had a tropical depression ?lol they just want to make their quota of storms fior the year


I had a 74 mph wind gust in a thunderstorm a few weeks ago is that a Hurricane? That makes as much sense as what you posted. Now the conspiracy begins..
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
Anyone have the link to the ECMWF???
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505. JLPR2
I guess convection is not everything? :\
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Wasn't it Stewart and Cangialosi that posted four circles the other night?
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NHC thinking Brownsville landfall.
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The world is filled with impressive systems tonight!

Invest 91C

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501. IKE
Quoting thelmores:


Nobody on this blog is perfect...... I mean look at how many times Dr. Masters screwed up last year! LOL


He also said Alex only had a 10% chance of reaching a cane in the GOM.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Well I am glad that this is all we are dealing with which is basically everyone laughing at the TD instead of what it could of been a couple of days ago when it was pointing at the Houston area! I'll take the joke with a bucket of extra crispy please!
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11pm TD#2 NAKED SWIRL TRACK

Member Since: January 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529
Quoting Mclem1:
We have TD2!!!
we had 45 mph winds in the midwest this week and last week does that mean we had a tropical depression ?lol they just want to make their quota of storms fior the year
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497. 7544
Quoting lickitysplit:
THAT is TD2?

isnt that a little...I dont know...desperate?


agree looks like they just want to use up numbers this season .
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496. 900MB
Clearly in an eye wall replacement cycle. LOL!

TD 2 declared and the crowd chuckles.
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495. IKE
Should evacuations begin?

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Reed...I see a change in you! Taking it with a sense of humor. All of us make predictions that we believe are right...and turn out otherwise.


Nobody on this blog is perfect...... I mean look at how many times Dr. Masters screwed up last year! LOL
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
After its impressive burst of activity the EPAC has flat-lined. Should stay that way for a while.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 072350
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED JUL 7 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI




CPC gives a moderate chance for EPAC development next week.
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Cone is out


EDIT: Someone beat me to it
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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