Invest 96L: Organizing in the Gulf

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:17 AM GMT on July 08, 2010

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Hi everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff while he's on vacation.

Invest 96L appears to be in the process of developing into a tropical cyclone. The strength and extent of it's thunderstorms is much improved from yesterday (I used CIMMS tropical storm page for my analysis). It's under an upper-level anticyclone which promotes development because it efficiently removes "exhaust" from the thunderstorms. Shear is relatively low (~10 knots), and SST's are adequate for supporting a tropical cyclone (~28 deg. C). In the most recent Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC mentioned that research flights found that upper-level conditions were promising for storm development, so they assess the chances of 96L of becoming a tropical cyclone at 80%. My take is that 96L has an 80% chance of becoming TD #2, and about a 40% chance of being named Bonnie. My reasoning is that 96L has about 24 hours to intensify before interactions with land start interfering with intensification processes. Also, model intensity forecasts are not very supportive of 96L attaining tropical storm force winds. The model track forecast aids have 96L's center of circulation making landfall somewhere between Brownsville and Corpus Christi.

Impacts
The 12Z operational GFS, HWRF, NOGAPS, and 18Z NAM tell a similar story about the surface winds. Near tropical-storm force winds affect the Texas coast from Corpus Christi to Matagorda Bay. A broad area of 30+ mph winds also affects the Deepwater Horizon oil spill recovery efforts. The 12Z Canadian global model downplays the wind strengths, and the 12Z parallel GFS fails to develop any significant surface wind (> 20 mph). That said, I believe that 96L's greatest impact will be in the form of rain.

The Rio Grande from Del Rio to Laredo is either at major flood stage or is forecast to reach major flood stage in the next 24 hours. This is due to Alex and the moisture he brought to the high terrain of northern Mexico. Nearly all of the forecast models I've looked at forecast 2-3 inches of rain over the Rio Grande Valley in the next 5 days. That will only encourage more flooding. The main forecast problem is how much rain will fall along the Gulf Coast. The parallel GFS and HWRF suggest that 4.5 to 6.5 inches of rain will fall in the Galveston/Houston area in the next 5 days. In my opinion, people living in this area should be prepared for flooding.


Fig. 1. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z parallel GFS. Operational GFS


Fig. 2. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z HWRF.


Fig. 3. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z Canadian global model. NOGAPS

Emergency Preparations
People living along the Gulf coast from south of the Rio Grande to the Texas/Louisiana border should review their emergency preparations (hurricane preparations also make for good flood preparations). Jeff has put together a guide to hurricane preparedness with plenty of links for more information.

Next Update
If 96L becomes TD2 or Bonnie, I'll have an update tonight. Shaun Tanner may post something in the morning if that's when the naming occurs. Otherwise, I'll post a tropical update tomorrow afternoon.

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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Clear, well-defined, and apparent LLC with TD2.

92L was the opposite, amazing structure and convection, no well-defined LLC.



EXACTLY!
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As I said and figured. As of 11PM we have TD2. Great call by the NHC. I know many of you are like well I've seen better systems then this not declared a depression, well the fact is this system is close to land and is a threat. Systems way out in the atlantic have higher means to be declared. IMO
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92L was rather far south and I recall multiple times we would look at windsat passes and ASCAT and see a circulation that was almost closed, but not quite.
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Quoting thelmores:


Fixed it! LOL

roflmao!
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The Soon to be naked swirl =TD#2

Member Since: January 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529
Quoting 900MB:


We are gonna have fun with this one!

Beware the naked swirl!!!
This would all actually be fun if TD2 was going to remain a naked swirl... however, that's not likely....

And I beg all to remember our stripper Karen who bared all daily for about a week before declassification [ok, maybe it didn't take that long...]
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The interesting thing to note about TD 2 is that the band to it's east really is a part of the system. It's a large system. TD's often have their strongest convection in bands.
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Clear, well-defined, and apparent LLC with TD2.

92L was the opposite, amazing structure and convection, no well-defined LLC.

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Quoting SLU:


Invest 92L (no TD)



TD #2

Now that's what I call consistency!

The last time I checked, tropical cyclone classification was not subjective. That seems to have changed since then.


It is partly subjective.
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580. Daveg
My God... seriously?

First a lot of folks here saying this thing was dead even before it left the Yucatan.

Then later that it was dead in the gulf and would never be a TD. THEN changed course when they saw the strengthening.

And now start bashing the NHC for declaring it a TD and are calling it dead again because it's lost a bit of convection near the center.

Wow... incredible and juvenile and ... hell just embarrassing.
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btw does this remind you of something

ALEX



TD#2

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
"ALTHOUGH INNER-CORE CONVECTION
HAS REALLY REALLY REALLY WANED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTER HAS BEEN INCREASING."


Fixed it! LOL
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11:00 pm EDT National Hurricane Center Advisory
-TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
Graphics Update


-No Projected Path issued for this update.
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Quoting SLU:


Invest 92L (no TD)



TD #2

Now that's what I call consistency!

The last time I checked, tropical cyclone classification was not subjective. That seems to have changed since then.


um yea TD 2 has something 92L did not have

a closed circulation
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


surface observations showed that 95L was attached to a frontal boundary up until 3 hours before it made landfall


And at that point it didn't have enough time to develop.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Geoff, either u develop a sense of humor, or u end up crazy, off the blog, or both.... lol


LOL...No one has ever said I don't have a sense of humor on here. Most of the time I am irritating as heck.
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Quoting Progster:


I don't agree. There wasn't a front for miles when it was approaching the LA coast.

TD2 will generate some new convection overnight...physics doesn't lie...much :)


surface observations showed that 95L was attached to a frontal boundary up until 3 hours before it made landfall
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Looks like a perfectly respectable tropical depression to me. Closed circulation. 1005 mb pressure.

Not looking that great, but lots of tropical depressions don't look that great. Tropical depressions are not strong storms!
You are exactly correct.
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Quoting 900MB:


We are gonna have fun with this one!

Beware the naked swirl!!!
watch her put a cute little number on and breathe some life into it
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And here is why, IMO, they classified while it looks like this...

THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL
OCCURRING ON TOP OF ALREADY SATURATED GROUND AND RAIN-SWOLLEN
CREEKS AND RIVERS...WHICH WILL ONLY ADD TO FLOOD CONDITIONS ALREADY
BEING EXPERIENCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS AND
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO CAUSED BY FORMER HURRICANE ALEX.
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569. SLU


Invest 92L (no TD)



TD #2

Now that's what I call consistency!

The last time I checked, tropical cyclone classification was not subjective. That seems to have changed since then.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


I think the more mature folks will need to migrate to another blog such as 456's or Drak's to actually talk about the tropics later in the season.

Plus they will be able to moderate the blog...
I say we go to Levi's blog. Lots of good up-to-date information there.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
The levees had better be checked soon. This one may have even more moisture farther north than Alex. It's not an anomaly. It's normal for there to be extreme evemts. Therefore the levees may be in trouble.
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Quoting IKE:
Memo to NHC: Take a look at what you just designated.....horrid looking...there's nothing left of it! LMAO!


Lets actually wait and see if anything happens with it before you guys stone it to death.
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The NHC did make the right call here, with the system being close to the coast and posing a major flooding threat. The only issues arise with systems way out in the middle of nowhere where they have higher standards to be met for TD status, and that's where the controversy lies. With this system near the coast, this is a good call. People need to be made aware of this dangerous storm.
\
THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL
OCCURRING ON TOP OF ALREADY SATURATED GROUND AND RAIN-SWOLLEN
CREEKS AND RIVERS...WHICH WILL ONLY ADD TO FLOOD CONDITIONS ALREADY
BEING EXPERIENCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS AND
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO CAUSED BY FORMER HURRICANE ALEX.
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Well tomorrow morning, if it acquires a convective burst...some of these comments in retrospect might seem a bit silly. Especially if the NHC intensity forecast pans out.
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Quoting extreme236:


Lol it's fine, people are just freaking out right now.
for sure..just got on, guess I missed the drama parade..lol
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562. beell
About a 6-8 hr difference in time over water between a WNW and NW course at 12 knots
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ALTHOUGH INNER-CORE CONVECTION
HAS WANED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE
EAST
OF THE CENTER HAS BEEN INCREASING.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


lol exactly, the NHC are the professionals


As I have stated many times, 95L was frontal, it was clearly still attached to the front up until 3 hours before it made landfall. A tropical system cannot be classified if it is attached to a front because the basic definition of a tropical cyclone is that it has to be non-frontal. People seem to refuse to understand this.

Once it detached from the front it only had 3 hours until landfall and did not increase its convection; therefore it was not classified and rightly so IMO


I don't agree. There wasn't a front for miles when it was approaching the LA coast.

TD2 will generate some new convection overnight...physics doesn't lie...much :)
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Quoting IKE:
Memo to NHC: Take a look at what you just designated.....horrid looking...there's nothing left of it! LMAO!
"ALTHOUGH INNER-CORE CONVECTION
HAS WANED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTER HAS BEEN INCREASING."
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
TD ? vs. the prior invest? It does have time on it's side, but the 12-24 hrs of convection? ..... Interesting, none the less!
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Quoting thelmores:


Well yea...... at the NHC after they pull the fire alarm! LOL

Is there a thunderstorm within 100 miles of the LLC? :D
anything to get the numbers lol twinkie depression 2 seen worse storms in the nidwest
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I hope dem Oil Levee's and Boom Hold come August-Sept.

I dont wanna sit on dee Levee and Moan again
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Quoting reedzone:
The fact of the matter is that this is a Tropical Depression (chuckles).. We must (lol) respect it as a TD (giggles).. Ok, lets move on to the track and strength of this weird little cridder.


Thats easy! Brownsvlle, 45mph, partly cloudy with a chance of rain! LOL
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552. JLPR2
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
The declaration of TD2 was a decent call.

Not all depression are supposed to have a -90C CDO and extensive banding. Some of you are just comparing this to pre-Alex, which is totally wrong.


yeah, good point as long as you have a closed LLC with the winds required you got a TD, but with no convection wouldn't it weaken?
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000
WTNT42 KNHC 080314
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022010
1000 PM CDT WED JUL 07 2010

DATA FROM SATELLITES...NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO BE
CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. ALTHOUGH INNER-CORE CONVECTION
HAS WANED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTER HAS BEEN INCREASING. DROPSONDE DATA FROM TWO
NOAA AIRCRAFT ON A RESEARCH MISSION IN AND AROUND THE DEPRESSION
INDICATE SURFACE WINDS NEAR 30 KT IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND
THIS WAS USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 310/10 DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER REFORMING WITHIN THE EARLIER CENTRAL CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH
THERE MAY BE SOME ERRATIC MOTION AS A RESULT OF POSSIBLE FURTHER
REFORMATION OF THE SYSTEM CENTER...THE GENERAL MOTION SHOULD BE
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. ALL OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT ON A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
STEADILY SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ACT
TO STEER THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE TEXAS-MEXICO BORDER AREA. THE
FORECAST TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED MODEL
GUIDANCE SUITE.

WATER TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION ARE ABOVE 28C AND THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS RELATIVELY LOW...SO THE DEPRESSION HAS ABOUT
24 HOURS OR SO OF FAVORABLE CONDITIONS BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS. AS A
RESULT...SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED UP UNTIL THAT TIME. THE
SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE INTENSITY UP TO 46 KT BY LANDFALL...BUT DUE
TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THIS SYSTEM...A SLOWER INTENSIFICATION RATE
SIMILAR TO THE LGEM MODEL IS EXPECTED.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL
OCCURRING ON TOP OF ALREADY SATURATED GROUND AND RAIN-SWOLLEN
CREEKS AND RIVERS...WHICH WILL ONLY ADD TO FLOOD CONDITIONS ALREADY
BEING EXPERIENCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS AND
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO CAUSED BY FORMER HURRICANE ALEX.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/0300Z 23.9N 93.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 08/1200Z 25.0N 95.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 09/0000Z 26.0N 97.6W 40 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 09/1200Z 26.7N 100.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
48HR VT 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
I think its best if most of us bow out of here tonight or go to another blog, because the NHC bashing will not stop for hours and we know it


I think the more mature folks will need to migrate to another blog such as 456's or Drak's to actually talk about the tropics later in the season.

Plus they will be able to moderate the blog...
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DATA FROM SATELLITES...NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO BE
CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. ALTHOUGH INNER-CORE CONVECTION
HAS WANED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTER HAS BEEN INCREASING.
DROPSONDE DATA FROM TWO
NOAA AIRCRAFT ON A RESEARCH MISSION IN AND AROUND THE DEPRESSION
INDICATE SURFACE WINDS NEAR 30 KT IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND
THIS WAS USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.
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548. IKE
Memo to NHC: Take a look at what you just designated.....horrid looking...there's nothing left of it! LMAO!
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
You know, as all you guys get paid to blog about tropical weather and they're just a bunch of unprofessional mets right?


lol exactly, the NHC are the professionals


As I have stated many times, 95L was frontal, it was clearly still attached to the front up until 3 hours before it made landfall. A tropical system cannot be classified if it is attached to a front because the basic definition of a tropical cyclone is that it has to be non-frontal. People seem to refuse to understand this.

Once it detached from the front it only had 3 hours until landfall and did not increase its convection; therefore it was not classified and rightly so IMO
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It was clear when they said 80%, it meant TD was imminent. In the morning all this debate about TD or not will seem foolish. Except maybe those who never had a handle on this system. The MHC are the experts; you will be less disappointed if you start from that perspective. They’ve done a better job than all the bloggers on this site.
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Quoting RickWPB:


Yeah, but the European doesn't develope it. Here it is anyway:
Link


Thanks
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Hi Txalways...

Danbury, TX here.

Hello.

When is the Mosquito Festival this year?
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Quoting extreme236:


By then people will probably be bashing them for not being aggressive enough..."thats obviously a major hurricane how can they be so dumb"
Lol, that's how it is.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
None of the stations in the Mobile, AL market even know that 96L has been upgraded very sad


Why should they care anyway? It's not going to effect them.
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Quoting extreme236:


By then people will probably be bashing them for not being aggressive enough..."thats obviously a major hurricane how can they be so dumb"


It will be the same people too.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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