Invest 96L: Organizing in the Gulf

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:17 AM GMT on July 08, 2010

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Hi everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff while he's on vacation.

Invest 96L appears to be in the process of developing into a tropical cyclone. The strength and extent of it's thunderstorms is much improved from yesterday (I used CIMMS tropical storm page for my analysis). It's under an upper-level anticyclone which promotes development because it efficiently removes "exhaust" from the thunderstorms. Shear is relatively low (~10 knots), and SST's are adequate for supporting a tropical cyclone (~28 deg. C). In the most recent Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC mentioned that research flights found that upper-level conditions were promising for storm development, so they assess the chances of 96L of becoming a tropical cyclone at 80%. My take is that 96L has an 80% chance of becoming TD #2, and about a 40% chance of being named Bonnie. My reasoning is that 96L has about 24 hours to intensify before interactions with land start interfering with intensification processes. Also, model intensity forecasts are not very supportive of 96L attaining tropical storm force winds. The model track forecast aids have 96L's center of circulation making landfall somewhere between Brownsville and Corpus Christi.

Impacts
The 12Z operational GFS, HWRF, NOGAPS, and 18Z NAM tell a similar story about the surface winds. Near tropical-storm force winds affect the Texas coast from Corpus Christi to Matagorda Bay. A broad area of 30+ mph winds also affects the Deepwater Horizon oil spill recovery efforts. The 12Z Canadian global model downplays the wind strengths, and the 12Z parallel GFS fails to develop any significant surface wind (> 20 mph). That said, I believe that 96L's greatest impact will be in the form of rain.

The Rio Grande from Del Rio to Laredo is either at major flood stage or is forecast to reach major flood stage in the next 24 hours. This is due to Alex and the moisture he brought to the high terrain of northern Mexico. Nearly all of the forecast models I've looked at forecast 2-3 inches of rain over the Rio Grande Valley in the next 5 days. That will only encourage more flooding. The main forecast problem is how much rain will fall along the Gulf Coast. The parallel GFS and HWRF suggest that 4.5 to 6.5 inches of rain will fall in the Galveston/Houston area in the next 5 days. In my opinion, people living in this area should be prepared for flooding.


Fig. 1. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z parallel GFS. Operational GFS


Fig. 2. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z HWRF.


Fig. 3. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z Canadian global model. NOGAPS

Emergency Preparations
People living along the Gulf coast from south of the Rio Grande to the Texas/Louisiana border should review their emergency preparations (hurricane preparations also make for good flood preparations). Jeff has put together a guide to hurricane preparedness with plenty of links for more information.

Next Update
If 96L becomes TD2 or Bonnie, I'll have an update tonight. Shaun Tanner may post something in the morning if that's when the naming occurs. Otherwise, I'll post a tropical update tomorrow afternoon.

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CONSISTENCY!!! That is the only beef i have with the NHC. How many systems have we seen over the years that looked better than this mess that were never declared TD's. Joe Bastardi was right on calling out and bashing the NHC on examples just like this. Pffft
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Quoting IKE:
Even the convection to the east of the center that the NHC said was..."OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTER HAS BEEN INCREASING."....is now decreasing...Link

0315UTC IR....



I just want to make sure I understand. 95L was a TD ans 96L is not. The NHC is either to aggressive or too conservative. I think people here will never be satisfied
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


where is that dead horse graphic?


Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23501

.."Our Haus,..in the middle of the street"..
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Quoting extreme236:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022010
1000 PM CDT WED JUL 07 2010

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY FROM KAREN'S
REMNANTS HAS PLAYED A ROLE IN THE GENESIS OF THIS CYCLONE.
HOWEVER...THE EVIDENCE IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO ATTACH THAT NAME TO
THIS SYSTEM.


Not your style extreme. BTW..how about that link?
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How are the SST's under TD2 after Alex ?
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


so it was a conspiracy? LMAO

then where was all the rain coming from that Florida got all week?



There was a trof over fla for sure. But air masses modify over time when the surface they move over changes. What came into the gulf a week before 95L was a front. But what maintained the "frontal trof" was convection..not baroclinicity.

I'm not talking about motive or conspiracy...just data.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 490
We're now under a flash flood watch through tomorrow at 7pm in Central Texas (Austin)
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Put a shirt on while the tropics are active!
We do harass every noob that shows up with a shirtless avatar...
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Quoting SLU:


not according to the bouy 41041 which also had 31.5kts winds.


where is that dead horse graphic?
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Quoting extreme236:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022010
1000 PM CDT WED JUL 07 2010

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY FROM KAREN'S
REMNANTS HAS PLAYED A ROLE IN THE GENESIS OF THIS CYCLONE.
HOWEVER...THE EVIDENCE IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO ATTACH THAT NAME TO
THIS SYSTEM.


LOL!

Timeless.
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628. SLU
Quoting Hurricanes101:


um yea TD 2 has something 92L did not have

a closed circulation


not according to the bouy 41041 which also had 31.5kts winds.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4797
Quoting extreme236:


LMAO!


I was just about to post that! lol. The old joke from 2007.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23501
Quoting Levi32:
Don't be surprised if TD 2 isn't so naked by morning.
Definitely, folks might be in for a shock tomorrow and the next 24 hours before landfallll
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022010
1000 PM CDT WED JUL 07 2010

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY FROM KAREN'S
REMNANTS HAS PLAYED A ROLE IN THE GENESIS OF THIS CYCLONE.
HOWEVER...THE EVIDENCE IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO ATTACH THAT NAME TO
THIS SYSTEM.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Quoting extreme236:


WATER TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION ARE ABOVE 28C AND THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS RELATIVELY LOW...
Exactly.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
TD2 is likely the remnants of Karen...



LMAO!
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
TD two doesn't have much good convection around the center. Is there a good reason why it couldn't build any later tonight?


Put a shirt on while the tropics are active!
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Wow, not really sure what the argument is about TD 2. It definitely has the structure for a tropical depression. All of you that are referring to 92L really don't understand what it takes to designate a tropical cyclone. It may have had a closed circulation for 6 hours and that's pushing it. By the way, you noticed it fell apart, right? In d-min, you should expect a decrease in convection. D-max will do wonders for TD-2 and most likely propel it to Tropical Storm Bonnie.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Apart from the cool SSTs below there is no reason for the system not develop convection. Anyways, it isn't like the SSTs are freezing, they are warm enough to support a cyclone.


WATER TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION ARE ABOVE 28C AND THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS RELATIVELY LOW...
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
619. IKE
Even the convection to the east of the center that the NHC said was..."OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTER HAS BEEN INCREASING."....is now decreasing...Link

0315UTC IR....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting Progster:


No, they didn't. What surface observations showed was a homogeneous air mass in the vicinity of 95L with similar T and Td for hundreds of miles in all directions. There was no airmass change anywhere near 95L for a day or 2 prior to its landfall. The TPC analysis at 12Z on the day of its landfall showed a quasistationary front attached to it. That is ludicrous. You can't have a essentially non-moving front attached to a rotating wind field.

The front was placed as an artifice to gloss over the fact that 95L had a non-standard vertical entropic profile, more like a sub-trop storm, but without its classic characteristics.


so it was a conspiracy? LMAO

then where was all the rain coming from that Florida got all week?

Right from that same frontal boundary
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I agree. Watch all of you killing this system are going to wake up to a surprise.


May very well wake up to a nice consolidated storm with deep convection by morning. I just don't think it was time to classify it yet, that is my argument, not that it will remain a naked swirl, these things are bound to blow up with storms.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
TD two doesn't have much good convection around the center. Is there a good reason why it couldn't build any later tonight?


No reason, look at the spiral banding.. feeding in energy from across all the Gulf. Also, the reason we're seeing convection wane is 2 reasons. First of all, durinal effects do effect TD's like TD2. Second of all TD2 is traveling over an area of upwelling left by Alex. It heading north into higher amounts of TCHP and SST's and will have no trouble blowing up into Bonnie before landfall at imo 7:30 pm tomorrow evening.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23501
Quoting IKE:
ALTHOUGH INNER-CORE CONVECTION NO LONGER EXISTS WE FELT IT PRUDENT TO UPDATE 96L TO TD2 SINCE WE REFUSED TO SEND RECON IN TO 95L AND WE FELT WE OWED IT TO YOU TO GET A TD2 DESIGNATED.

$$$

i thought this was real for a second.
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TD2 is likely the remnants of Karen...

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612. Daveg
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
TD two doesn't have much good convection around the center. Is there a good reason why it couldn't build any later tonight?


No reason at all. It's in a good environment.
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
TD two doesn't have much good convection around the center. Is there a good reason why it couldn't build any later tonight?
Apart from the cool SSTs below there is no reason for the system not develop convection. Anyways, it isn't like the SSTs are freezing, they are warm enough to support a cyclone.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
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Quoting Levi32:
Don't be surprised if TD 2 isn't so naked by morning.


I think the NHC has been right on all of this

92L was impressive yes, but we never at any point and time had a verified closed circulation with it; that is why it never become a TD

96L has a well-defined, closed circulation
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Evening All.

Hopefully this doesn't continue to be the year of the brother/sister one, two punch.

I can tell ya, it's not fun at all.
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Quoting IKE:
ALTHOUGH INNER-CORE CONVECTION NO LONGER EXISTS WE FELT IT PRUDENT TO UPDATE 96L TO TD2 SINCE WE REFUSED TO SEND RECON IN TO 95L AND WE FELT WE OWED IT TO YOU TO GET A TD2 DESIGNATED.

$$$


Inner core convection isn't the only convection that matters. It does if were looking for further development in a tropical storm. At that point it does matter.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Is it going to drag all of that convection over the Yucatan with it to Texas? That looks much more serious than TD2 itself.
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Ryan, you around?

Is this really m/s? GFS 18 Z run calling for 22 m/s, or x 2.23693 = 49 mph at the site of BPs problem ?!?

No way...



(Yeah, I know, 925 mb, difference would be small.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


surface observations showed that 95L was attached to a frontal boundary up until 3 hours before it made landfall


No, they didn't. What surface observations showed was a homogeneous air mass in the vicinity of 95L with similar T and Td for hundreds of miles in all directions. There was no airmass change anywhere near 95L for a day or 2 prior to its landfall. The TPC analysis at 12Z on the day of its landfall showed a quasistationary front attached to it. That is ludicrous. You can't have a essentially non-moving front attached to a rotating wind field.

The front was placed as an artifice to gloss over the fact that 95L had a non-standard vertical entropic profile, more like a sub-trop storm, but without its classic characteristics.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 490
Quoting extreme236:
92L was rather far south and I recall multiple times we would look at windsat passes and ASCAT and see a circulation that was almost closed, but not quite.


Exactly. The NHC isnt as dumb as some here make them out to be.
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U betcha..

MArsh aint never LAndfall either..

Specially below Houma


snicker,ack..see "docNDswamps Blog"
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Bonnie/TD is very well organized. It's just missing a few extra showers.
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Quoting Levi32:
Don't be surprised if TD 2 isn't so naked by morning.
I agree. Watch all of you killing this system are going to wake up to a surprise.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
598. IKE
ALTHOUGH INNER-CORE CONVECTION NO LONGER EXISTS WE FELT IT PRUDENT TO UPDATE 96L TO TD2 SINCE WE REFUSED TO SEND RECON IN TO 95L AND WE FELT WE OWED IT TO YOU TO GET A TD2 DESIGNATED.

$$$
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
597. JLPR2
Quoting BahaHurican:
This would all actually be fun if TD2 was going to remain a naked swirl... however, that's not likely....

And I beg all to remember our stripper Karen who bared all daily for about a week before declassification [ok, maybe it didn't take that long...]


haha! XD LOL!
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Don't be surprised if TD 2 isn't so naked by morning.
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It is very likely that TD2 will kill a few people due to the rain it will be dumping on the already saturated grounds that Alex crossed not too long ago.

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594. Daveg
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
The Soon to be naked swirl =TD#2



Not likely.
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Quoting Daveg:
My God... seriously?

First a lot of folks here saying this thing was dead even before it left the Yucatan.

Then later that it was dead in the gulf and would never be a TD. THEN changed course when they saw the strengthening.

And now start bashing the NHC for declaring it a TD and are calling it dead again because it's lost a bit of convection near the center.

Wow... incredible and juvenile and ... hell just embarrassing.


It's said aint it? And its usually the same type of people too.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23501
Quoting FKlusmann:

Hello.

When is the Mosquito Festival this year?

mosqfest is Clute correct? or are there two?
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Clear, well-defined, and apparent LLC with TD2.

92L was the opposite, amazing structure and convection, no well-defined LLC.



EXACTLY!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.