Invest 96L: Organizing in the Gulf

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:17 AM GMT on July 08, 2010

Share this Blog
2
+

Hi everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff while he's on vacation.

Invest 96L appears to be in the process of developing into a tropical cyclone. The strength and extent of it's thunderstorms is much improved from yesterday (I used CIMMS tropical storm page for my analysis). It's under an upper-level anticyclone which promotes development because it efficiently removes "exhaust" from the thunderstorms. Shear is relatively low (~10 knots), and SST's are adequate for supporting a tropical cyclone (~28 deg. C). In the most recent Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC mentioned that research flights found that upper-level conditions were promising for storm development, so they assess the chances of 96L of becoming a tropical cyclone at 80%. My take is that 96L has an 80% chance of becoming TD #2, and about a 40% chance of being named Bonnie. My reasoning is that 96L has about 24 hours to intensify before interactions with land start interfering with intensification processes. Also, model intensity forecasts are not very supportive of 96L attaining tropical storm force winds. The model track forecast aids have 96L's center of circulation making landfall somewhere between Brownsville and Corpus Christi.

Impacts
The 12Z operational GFS, HWRF, NOGAPS, and 18Z NAM tell a similar story about the surface winds. Near tropical-storm force winds affect the Texas coast from Corpus Christi to Matagorda Bay. A broad area of 30+ mph winds also affects the Deepwater Horizon oil spill recovery efforts. The 12Z Canadian global model downplays the wind strengths, and the 12Z parallel GFS fails to develop any significant surface wind (> 20 mph). That said, I believe that 96L's greatest impact will be in the form of rain.

The Rio Grande from Del Rio to Laredo is either at major flood stage or is forecast to reach major flood stage in the next 24 hours. This is due to Alex and the moisture he brought to the high terrain of northern Mexico. Nearly all of the forecast models I've looked at forecast 2-3 inches of rain over the Rio Grande Valley in the next 5 days. That will only encourage more flooding. The main forecast problem is how much rain will fall along the Gulf Coast. The parallel GFS and HWRF suggest that 4.5 to 6.5 inches of rain will fall in the Galveston/Houston area in the next 5 days. In my opinion, people living in this area should be prepared for flooding.


Fig. 1. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z parallel GFS. Operational GFS


Fig. 2. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z HWRF.


Fig. 3. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z Canadian global model. NOGAPS

Emergency Preparations
People living along the Gulf coast from south of the Rio Grande to the Texas/Louisiana border should review their emergency preparations (hurricane preparations also make for good flood preparations). Jeff has put together a guide to hurricane preparedness with plenty of links for more information.

Next Update
If 96L becomes TD2 or Bonnie, I'll have an update tonight. Shaun Tanner may post something in the morning if that's when the naming occurs. Otherwise, I'll post a tropical update tomorrow afternoon.

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 691 - 641

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37Blog Index

Quoting MississippiWx:


You really gonna trust a buoy observation/ship ob over dropsonde data from the hurricane hunters?
No, of course not. (though dropsondes *can* give a false impression in their 4 minutes of obs in the presence of convective cells)

Just noting that our functioning buoys cannot show us much of anything, unfortunately.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TD#2 will be inland allot sooner than they are forecasting and hopefully it remains a naked swirl cause Texas has been having some major flooding problems
Member Since: January 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529
Quoting robert88:


What about the 50 others that should of been declared as well? How come they aren't as special? I have been following the tropics for about 22 years now and i have seen the inconsistency building in Miami more and more over the years.

I AGREE! The dolphins need to be more consistent or they will never win a superbowl! Oh... wrong blog.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Got to give it to the ECMWF again for TD2. ECMWF predicted TD2 when Alex was hitting Mexico over a week ago and is now persistently developing a CV wave off Africa. One thing is for certain, even if you disagree with the NHC this season so far has proved it is no 2009. If we get Colin next week like the ECMWF verifies, it will be the earliest we've had a C named storm since 2005.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24575
Quoting atmoaggie:

And this fits one of my favs from Berlioz, IMO: "Time is a great teacher. Unfortunately, it kills all its pupils."

Besides the obvious wisdom of Grothar in his meaning, I think it also applies well to hindsight.


Who knew weather, and the english language could be tied hand in hand lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Also maybe check out post #53 in my current entry atmo

Well worth the read.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Another person who doesnt understand the requirements for a tropical cyclone...


What about the 50 others that should of been declared as well? How come they aren't as special? I have been following the tropics for about 22 years now and i have seen the inconsistency building in Miami more and more over the years.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:





...loved your vid :) Nice dog, too :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Daveg:
This is NHC / 95L crap is getting sad... guess it's time to call it a night.

I agree. I am out. They do a good job and a part of me wishes that they would stop work for one season so than the folks on here would stop complaining about them. Go find an organization that does it better than they do and stop complaining.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
681. JLPR2
Quoting SLU:


not according to the bouy 41041 which also had 31.5kts winds.


West winds?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MrstormX:
Maybe I was a bit harsh on the NHC earlier, stumbled across this quote and it made me wonder...

"Confidence comes not from always being right, but from not being afraid to be wrong."

And this fits one of my favs from Berlioz, IMO: "Time is a great teacher. Unfortunately, it kills all its pupils."

Besides the obvious wisdom of Grothar in his meaning, I think it also applies well to hindsight.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Night Miamicanes09

I think I'm gonna step out for a while, take it easy guys.. The unthinkable in my opinion has happened. A TD classified with little to no convection near the center. So priceless :P

It is what it is, no use arguing over it. May be Bonnie by morning, lets see what this little cridder can do.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7437
678. IKE
Quoting atmoaggie:
Seriously, guys, 95L *may* be classified in post-season analysis. Or not.

I went and looked, not one single severe wind report from South LA the day of landfall. Only a nado reported in NOLA, the next day. What on earth is the big deal?

Wasn't much of a threat to anyone.


The big deal is the NHC going to from 0 to 60 pct. and then back to 0% in 3 hours.

If they had simply kept it at near 0% throughout until landfall it wouldn't have been that big of a deal.

Then they also said it made landfall...when it then went back off of the coast as it was moving west to WNW.

NHC didn't look good over how they handled 95L.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting PtownBryan:
So can anyone here explain what happened to TD #2? Why is all of the moisture and rain disappearing? One local met'gst said with it calmed down it is just giving it time to regenerate I guess for a later time. Could some of it have to do with the sun going down? I know that really doesn;t have an effect usually on tropical cyclones but this is just odd for it to disappear. Thanks in advance!

According to the NHC, TD2 may be relocating its center of circulation. The area where she sits was worked over REAL good by TS/Hurricane Alex, so there is less available heat energy in the Gulf of Mexico at the moment.

Biggest threat is the enhanced flooding potential over S TX, the Eastern half of TX an N Mexico.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:
Seriously, guys, 95L *may* be classified in post-season analysis. Or not.

I went and looked, not one single severe wind report from South LA the day of landfall. Only a nado reported in NOLA, the next day. What on earth is the big deal?

Wasn't much of a threat to anyone.


Not a big deal...purely an academic discussion by shirtless fish-bearing weather freaks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:
Seriously, guys, 95L *may* be classified in post-season analysis. Or not.

I went and looked, not one single severe wind report from South LA the day of landfall. Only a nado reported in NOLA, the next day. What on earth is the big deal?

Wasn't much of a threat to anyone.



Id maybe rethink and check some er,..data.

LOL

NDBC obs
Marsh Island / Buoy Station MRSL1, as 95L approached, passed directly over station -
07 06 3:00 am: SE @ 21.0 / 35.0 kts - 29.80" - AT: 78.6F
07 06 2:00 am: S @ 15.0 / 20.0 kts - 29.81" - AT: 84.7F
07 06 1:00 am: SSE @ 27.0 / 29.9 kts - 29.73" - AT: 81.0F
07 06 12:00 am: SSE @ 25.1 / 28.9 kts - 29.69" - AT: 79.5F
07 05 11:00 pm: ENE @ 28.9 / 36.9 kts - 29.81" - AT: 78.6F
07 05 10:00 pm: ENE @ 27.0 / 33.0 kts - 29.81" - AT: 78.8F
07 05 9:00 pm: ENE @ 25.1 / 28.9 kts - 29.81" - AT: 81.0F
07 05 8:00 pm: ENE @ 19.0 / 22.0 kts - 29.83" - AT: 81.7F
07 05 7:00 pm: ENE @ 15.0 / 19.0 kts - 29.81" - AT: 82.8F
07 05 5:00 pm: ENE @ 8.9 / 11.1 kts - 29.83" - AT: 81.9F

Freshwater Locks Station FRWL1 (on the coast to NW of MRSL1)
07 06 12:30 am: NE@ 24.1 / 32.1 kts - 29.76" - AT: 78.1F - WT: 87.8F

NWS Hourly Reports (Salt Point wind speeds listed in mph and pressure by inches mercury, others in knots / millibars)-

11PM July 5:
SALT POINT N/A 79 77 94 SE18G30 29.84"S
MARSH ISLAND 0300 79 60/ 27/ 33 1009.6S
FRESH WATER LOCK 0400 79 88 50/ 11/ 17 1009.9R

12AM July 6:
SALT POINT N/A 79 77 94 SE9G25 29.85"R
MARSH ISLAND 0400 79 70/ 29/ 37 1009.4F
FRESH WATER LOCK 0500 77 88 50/ 14/ 19 1009.8F

1AM July 6:
SALT POINT N/A 79 78 97 SE9G30 29.83"F
MARSH ISLAND 0500 80 150/ 25/ 29 1005.3F
FRESH WATER LOCK 0600 79 88 50/ 15/ 23 1007.8S

2AM July 6:
SALT POINT N/A 77 75 93 S9G25 29.87"R
MARSH ISLAND 0600 81 160/ 27/ 30 1006.9R
FRESH WATER LOCK 0700 79 87 140/ 18/ 24 1008.0R

Nearby morn obs showing light sfc westerly winds after landfall, to help confirm closed circulation -

6AM July 6:
MARSH ISLAND 1000 78 240/ 7/ 11 1010.1
BUOY 30 S HIGH I 1100 84 85 260/ 8/ 10 1009.8F

8AM July 6:
SULPHUR CLOUDY 77 77 100 W5 29.86R
CHENAULT AIRPK CLOUDY 75 75 100 W7 29.85R

9AM July 6:
CHENAULT AIRPK CLOUDY 77 77 100 W5 29.88R

10AM July 6:
MARSH ISLAND 1400 79 270/ 1/ 3 1013.1R
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:
Obvious closed surface circ...



Oh, right...


You really gonna trust a buoy observation/ship ob over dropsonde data from the hurricane hunters?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
672. Daveg
This is NHC / 95L crap is getting sad... guess it's time to call it a night.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Lots of moisture

Decent environment

I recall hearing that one of the NHC's own people (I am thinking Stewart for some reason) said that the atmospheric environment was more important for intensification than SSTs.

I've not been impressed with 96L and have not commented about it, but if the NHC has the data to support it, I don't have a beef with this designation. "If the shoe fits" and all. It is going to affect land and there is no good reason why it shouldn't at least hold its own and possibly grow before it does.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Maybe I was a bit harsh on the NHC earlier, stumbled across this quote and it made me wonder...

"Confidence comes not from always being right, but from not being afraid to be wrong."
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:
Seriously, guys, 95L *may* be classified in post-season analysis. Or not.

I went and looked, not one single severe wind report from South LA the day of landfall. Only a nado reported in NOLA, the next day. What on earth is the big deal?

Wasn't much of a threat to anyone.


well said, the flooding TD 2 can and probably will bring to already rain soaked areas could have much bigger impacts than 95L ever did
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting robert88:
CONSISTENCY!!! That is the only beef i have with the NHC. How many systems have we seen over the years that looked better than this mess that were never declared TD's. Joe Bastardi was right on calling out and bashing the NHC on examples just like this. Pffft


regarding consistency:
When viewed from a satellite, tropical depressions appear to have little organization. However, the slightest amount of rotation can usually be perceived when looking at a series of satellite images. Instead of a round appearance similar to hurricanes, tropical depressions look like individual thunderstorms that are grouped together.

95L was part of a frontal boundary.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Im out.

Goin fishing tomorrow at dawn.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Seriously, guys, 95L *may* be classified in post-season analysis. Or not.

I went and looked, not one single severe wind report from South LA the day of landfall. Only a nado reported in NOLA, the next day. What on earth is the big deal?

Wasn't much of a threat to anyone.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just looked up aquapalooza.. cool event. Not sure - flash flood notice took me by surprise (too busy monitoring for people on the coast - lol).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Another person who doesnt understand the requirements for a tropical cyclone...
You have no idea how many times I've posted the definition from the NHC glossary of a "tropical cyclone". Oh well. Night everyone!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Hurricanes101:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022010
1000 PM CDT WED JUL 07 2010

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED A BASHING THE NHC WARNING FOR THE WEATHERUNDERGROUND; THIS MEANS THAT BASHING OF THE NHC IS LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR NOTICED A UPROAR OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON WEATHERUNDERGROUND THAT RESEMBLED BASHING OF OUR AGENCIES. WE HAVE ALL PUT UP OUR SHOWER CURTAINS IN DEFENSE OF THIS AND OTHERS IN THE AREA SHOULD TAKE THE PROPER PRECAUTIONS.


love it! needs to end with evacuations are imminent
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
660. IKE
Quoting atmoaggie:
Obvious closed surface circ...



Oh, right...


LOL.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Another person who doesnt understand the requirements for a tropical cyclone...


obviously
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Long running joke...At least be holding a fish.


Hey now, lol. I changed it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:
Obvious closed surface circ...



Oh, right...


It's not particularly large on the south side....recon dropsondes confirmed a closed circulation with a large area of west and NW winds at the surface just a couple hours ago.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
So can anyone here explain what happened to TD #2? Why is all of the moisture and rain disappearing? One local met'gst said with it calmed down it is just giving it time to regenerate I guess for a later time. Could some of it have to do with the sun going down? I know that really doesn;t have an effect usually on tropical cyclones but this is just odd for it to disappear. Thanks in advance!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
Guys, at least they are giving warning to the people in the Rio Grande Valley and surrounding areas that may have to deal with more lost lives due to flooding on top of Alex's previous rainfall.


A good point on why they probably rushed it, peoples lives are at stake. This I can agree on...
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7437
Quoting Matagordville:

mosqfest is Clute correct? or are there two?


I'm not sure. I saw some signs on 35 two years back. I think it is in July.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting robert88:
CONSISTENCY!!! That is the only beef i have with the NHC. How many systems have we seen over the years that looked better than this mess that were never declared TD's. Joe Bastardi was right on calling out and bashing the NHC on examples just like this. Pffft


Another person who doesnt understand the requirements for a tropical cyclone...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
There is a possibility that 95L will be recognized as an "Unnamed Tropical Storm" in the post season analysis.


its possible
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:
We do harass every noob that shows up with a shirtless avatar...


I'm really REALLy glad you do! cuz you should and they deserve it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Obvious closed surface circ...



Oh, right...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:
We do harass every noob that shows up with a shirtless avatar...


Long running joke...At least be holding a fish.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11541
There is a possibility that 95L will be recognized as an "Unnamed Tropical Storm" in the post season analysis.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022010
1000 PM CDT WED JUL 07 2010

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED A BASHING THE NHC WARNING FOR THE WEATHERUNDERGROUND; THIS MEANS THAT BASHING OF THE NHC IS LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR NOTICED A UPROAR OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON WEATHERUNDERGROUND THAT RESEMBLED BASHING OF OUR AGENCIES. WE HAVE ALL PUT UP OUR SHOWER CURTAINS IN DEFENSE OF THIS AND OTHERS IN THE AREA SHOULD TAKE THE PROPER PRECAUTIONS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
645. SLU
Quoting Levi32:


It is partly subjective.


Therein lies the controversy
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5367
644. xcool
GeoffreyWPB lmaoo.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AustinTXWeather:
We're now under a flash flood watch through tomorrow at 7pm in Central Texas (Austin)


Yep...just saw that. I hope they don't cancel aquapalooza!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Guys, at least they are giving warning to the people in the Rio Grande Valley and surrounding areas that may have to deal with more lost lives due to flooding on top of Alex's previous rainfall.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
CONSISTENCY!!! That is the only beef i have with the NHC. How many systems have we seen over the years that looked better than this mess that were never declared TD's. Joe Bastardi was right on calling out and bashing the NHC on examples just like this. Pffft
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 691 - 641

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
39 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron