Invest 96L: Organizing in the Gulf

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:17 AM GMT on July 08, 2010

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Hi everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff while he's on vacation.

Invest 96L appears to be in the process of developing into a tropical cyclone. The strength and extent of it's thunderstorms is much improved from yesterday (I used CIMMS tropical storm page for my analysis). It's under an upper-level anticyclone which promotes development because it efficiently removes "exhaust" from the thunderstorms. Shear is relatively low (~10 knots), and SST's are adequate for supporting a tropical cyclone (~28 deg. C). In the most recent Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC mentioned that research flights found that upper-level conditions were promising for storm development, so they assess the chances of 96L of becoming a tropical cyclone at 80%. My take is that 96L has an 80% chance of becoming TD #2, and about a 40% chance of being named Bonnie. My reasoning is that 96L has about 24 hours to intensify before interactions with land start interfering with intensification processes. Also, model intensity forecasts are not very supportive of 96L attaining tropical storm force winds. The model track forecast aids have 96L's center of circulation making landfall somewhere between Brownsville and Corpus Christi.

Impacts
The 12Z operational GFS, HWRF, NOGAPS, and 18Z NAM tell a similar story about the surface winds. Near tropical-storm force winds affect the Texas coast from Corpus Christi to Matagorda Bay. A broad area of 30+ mph winds also affects the Deepwater Horizon oil spill recovery efforts. The 12Z Canadian global model downplays the wind strengths, and the 12Z parallel GFS fails to develop any significant surface wind (> 20 mph). That said, I believe that 96L's greatest impact will be in the form of rain.

The Rio Grande from Del Rio to Laredo is either at major flood stage or is forecast to reach major flood stage in the next 24 hours. This is due to Alex and the moisture he brought to the high terrain of northern Mexico. Nearly all of the forecast models I've looked at forecast 2-3 inches of rain over the Rio Grande Valley in the next 5 days. That will only encourage more flooding. The main forecast problem is how much rain will fall along the Gulf Coast. The parallel GFS and HWRF suggest that 4.5 to 6.5 inches of rain will fall in the Galveston/Houston area in the next 5 days. In my opinion, people living in this area should be prepared for flooding.


Fig. 1. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z parallel GFS. Operational GFS


Fig. 2. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z HWRF.


Fig. 3. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z Canadian global model. NOGAPS

Emergency Preparations
People living along the Gulf coast from south of the Rio Grande to the Texas/Louisiana border should review their emergency preparations (hurricane preparations also make for good flood preparations). Jeff has put together a guide to hurricane preparedness with plenty of links for more information.

Next Update
If 96L becomes TD2 or Bonnie, I'll have an update tonight. Shaun Tanner may post something in the morning if that's when the naming occurs. Otherwise, I'll post a tropical update tomorrow afternoon.

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741. IKE
Just gets worse on every updated 30 minute frame.....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Impacts are the end yakk at the end of the yakking.

Ya Know..Like cat 3's and 30 foot surges and all
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Quoting Bordonaro:

According to the NHC, TD2 may be relocating its center of circulation. The area where she sits was worked over REAL good by TS/Hurricane Alex, so there is less available heat energy in the Gulf of Mexico at the moment.

Biggest threat is the enhanced flooding potential over S TX, the Eastern half of TX an N Mexico.


Thanks appreciate it!
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Quoting atmoaggie:
I couldn't remember, but wiki says your memory is just fine.

"Hurricane Cindy was a tropical cyclone that briefly reached minimal hurricane strength in the Gulf of Mexico during July in the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season and made landfall in Louisiana. It was the third named storm and first hurricane of the season. Cindy was originally thought to have been a tropical storm at peak strength, but was upgraded to a Category 1 hurricane in the post-storm analysis."
Thank you, I keep forgetting about "good ole" Wiki for quick research.
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Quoting Patrap:
95L caused flooding if ya check the Parish reports.

And a lotta grief Tuesday as well.

Ah, but the flooding is irrelevant as to whether or not it was a TD. Nothing would have changed with a 6 hour warning of TD conditions...
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Ryan, you around?

Is this really m/s? GFS 18 Z run calling for 22 m/s, or x 2.23693 = 49 mph at the site of BPs problem ?!?

No way...



(Yeah, I know, 925 mb, difference would be small.)


And, after some looking, seeing nothing like 40 knots in the NCEP GFS plots of 10 meter winds...I think the units should be knots.


Hard to see but what's with the wind swath from Nova Scotia to Norfolk?
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Quoting AllBoardedUp:
If I remember correctly, Hurricane Cindy, July of 2005 came on shore as Tropical Storm Cindy. It wasn't upgraded to a hurricane until December of 2005. Can anyone verify this, I'm pretty sure, but not 100 percent.
I couldn't remember, but wiki says your memory is just fine.

"Hurricane Cindy was a tropical cyclone that briefly reached minimal hurricane strength in the Gulf of Mexico during July in the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season and made landfall in Louisiana. It was the third named storm and first hurricane of the season. Cindy was originally thought to have been a tropical storm at peak strength, but was upgraded to a Category 1 hurricane in the post-storm analysis."
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One last comment......

I have no problem with the NHC classifying TD2.
As long as the NHC has no problem with me stating the obvious fact that if TD2 was in the middle of the Atlantic, it would still at this point be 96L.

Prayers for those in Tex\Mex who are in harms way!

Nite all! :)
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Quoting Progster:


Lets see the fish
Like you don't know what a 20 lb Red looks like...
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730. IKE
The patch/spin of rain that's furthest east on this Brownsville radar looks like the spin of TD2....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting atmoaggie:
Seriously, guys, 95L *may* be classified in post-season analysis. Or not.

I went and looked, not one single severe wind report from South LA the day of landfall. Only a nado reported in NOLA, the next day. What on earth is the big deal?

Wasn't much of a threat to anyone.
If I remember correctly, Hurricane Cindy, July of 2005 came on shore as Tropical Storm Cindy. It wasn't upgraded to a hurricane until December of 2005. Can anyone verify this, I'm pretty sure, but not 100 percent.
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Hmm....ASCAT from one hour ago didn't capture the SW quad, but the surface center appears elongated northeast. At first glance it may appear that the circulation is open, but a recon mission just a couple hours ago coupled with visible imagery clearly confirmed a closed circulation with a large batch of west and NW surface winds south of the center.

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Ryan, you around?

Is this really m/s? GFS 18 Z run calling for 22 m/s, or x 2.23693 = 49 mph at the site of BPs problem ?!?

No way...



(Yeah, I know, 925 mb, difference would be small.)


And, after some looking, seeing nothing like 40 knots in the NCEP GFS plots of 10 meter winds...I think the units should be knots.
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Maybe atmo..but who gives a rats behind.

Not I,..

My Point all the way with 95L was with the Lack of discussion and resources the Miami Office did on it.

They were all googled eyed with 96L's convective circus in the Western Caribbean.

So focus on a Active invest on a sensitive coastline was a ball dropped.

Pffft.


Then when they had their pants around their ankles with the Upgrade to 60% on the Special,dat had me actually laughing.

Then the Improvement westward for 16 more Hours was comical as well.

95L caused flooding if ya check the Parish reports.

And a lotta grief Tuesday as well.

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11:00 pm EDT National Hurricane Center Advisory
-TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
Graphics Update


-No Projected Path issued for this update.
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Well, then I suppose I'm in the right place...


Lets see the fish
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Went out for a night swim and came back to see we have TD 2 which could become Bonnie within the next 24 hours.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


4-5 in. here predicted by FOX 4.



Is that a "conservative" estimate?
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720. IKE
....
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
A note on INSURANCE. It was noted the other day by another member that once a storm gets named, then your hurricane deductible kicks in and overrides the $500 or $1000 normal deductible. I was wondering exactly what the definition was in my policy. Was a TD an event that could trigger the hurricane deductible?
.
.
I found something interesting in my policy. The hurricane deductible kicks in not for a named storm....it has to be a HURRICANE. Could be anywhere in the state, but if any part of the state is under a hurricane warning and there is named HURRICANE, that dastardly hurricane deeductible kicks in. BUT, it does not kick in with a tropical storm. I don't now if that's the rule for all policies(I suspect that it is), but it is for my policy. Also, check your standard deductible. I thought mine was 500, but it's 1000. I'll call first thing tomorrow to change it to 500. It'll cost $12 more.
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718. IKE
Quoting reedzone:


Brownsville, batten down the hatches, this could get ugly :P

Ok, i'm going for real now.. just had to say that.. We'll see what TD2 does by morning.


I don't wish anyone harm, but that's funny.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting Bordonaro:

Lets hope not! Most of N Mexico & the eastern half pf TX may receive some serious heavy rain & flooding id it intensifies.


4-5 in. here predicted by FOX 4.
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Quoting robert88:


What about the 50 others that should of been declared as well? How come they aren't as special? I have been following the tropics for about 22 years now and i have seen the inconsistency building in Miami more and more over the years.

There is a list of requirements that must be met in order for a system to be classified. Did they meet those requirements?
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Quoting Progster:


Not a big deal...purely an academic discussion by shirtless fish-bearing weather freaks.
Well, then I suppose I'm in the right place...
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Quoting reedzone:


Brownsville, batten down the hatches, this could get ugly :P
Its a wee bit late to build the ark & load the animals in 2 by 2 before tomorrow night :o)!
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


could also keep it over water longer

Lets hope not! Most of N Mexico & the eastern half pf TX may receive some serious heavy rain & flooding id it intensifies.
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Quoting IKE:


Is that...a.....pinhole eye?


Brownsville, batten down the hatches, this could get ugly :P

Ok, i'm going for real now.. just had to say that.. We'll see what TD2 does by morning.
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711. SLU
Quoting Hurricanes101:


where is that dead horse graphic?


The "dead horse" info you requested ....

.... and by the way to convert m/s to knots you must multiply the m/s by 1.94. Enjoy ........

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/data/realtime2/41041.cwind
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Quoting Patrap:


Also maybe check out post #53 in my current entry atmo

Well worth the read.
Not bad. And surely will be analyzed post-season.
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This season has started out with some unusual cyclones, thats for sure.
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Quoting btwntx08:
i just had it with 689 ughhhh...if u can td 2 a swirl then i'll call 95L a swirl too hahaha


lol
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Quoting Bordonaro:

TD 2 is re-organizing as we speak. She is real close to the slightly cooler SST from Alex. IF TD2 relocated her COC further to the N or NE, watch out, she'll be over warmer SST's which would not be good!


could also keep it over water longer
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Good Evening everyone. I see that Tropical Depression 2 has formed in the SW Gulf of Mexico.
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704. IKE
Quoting Patrap:


Is that...a.....pinhole eye?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
TD two doesn't have much good convection around the center. Is there a good reason why it couldn't build any later tonight?

TD 2 is re-organizing as we speak. She is real close to the slightly cooler SST from Alex. IF TD2 relocated her COC further to the N or NE, watch out, she'll be over warmer SST's which would not be good!
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Quoting Patrap:



Id maybe rethink and check some er,..data.
Point was, no one had a report of wind damage. No shingles lost, no trees down, no power poles down. Nothing at all of note at SPC. "Thus, not a threat to anyone."

Now, it wasn't good for oil spill transport, but that ship had sailed by the time "landfall" was going on.

And with the data you posted, like I said, it *may* get classified post-season.
Quoting IKE:


The big deal is the NHC going to from 0 to 60 pct. and then back to 0% in 3 hours.[snip, trying to be small]
NHC didn't look good over how they handled 95L.

Yeah. I agree.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Got to give it to the ECMWF again for TD2. ECMWF predicted TD2 when Alex was hitting Mexico over a week ago and is now persistently developing a CV wave off Africa. One thing is for certain, even if you disagree with the NHC this season so far has proved it is no 2009. If we get Colin next week like the ECMWF verifies, it will be the earliest we've had a C named storm since 2005.


To be fair the CMC was predicting this for some time also, track wise at least.
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95L was never upgraded, atcf went back and took down the TD classification

I guess we could see it given the old unnamed storm designation after the season is over
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Even when 95L's chances were bumped up to 60%...the SAB still only gave it a T1.0
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
695. Daveg
Quoting reedzone:
Night Miamicanes09

I think I'm gonna step out for a while, take it easy guys.. The unthinkable in my opinion has happened. A TD classified with little to no convection near the center. So priceless :P

It is what it is, no use arguing over it. May be Bonnie by morning, lets see what this little cridder can do.


Uhhh... when they classified it, it had PLENTY of convection near the center. Simply because it has waned for a couple of hours doesn't make it any less of a TD.
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Thanks to all for the responses to my question! :)


Which was? I am working from home and popping in and out!
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11278
Quoting gator23:


regarding consistency:
When viewed from a satellite, tropical depressions appear to have little organization. However, the slightest amount of rotation can usually be perceived when looking at a series of satellite images. Instead of a round appearance similar to hurricanes, tropical depressions look like individual thunderstorms that are grouped together.

95L was part of a frontal boundary.


The last few hours before 95L was upgraded it was not a part of the Frontal Boundary .....it was detached.
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Thanks to all for the responses to my question! :)


Meant to....forgot lol. Sorry.

TD 2 may be prevented from firing up deep convection by Alex's cold water wake which it continues to track over. A wind-up right before landfall is possible though, after TD 2 deviates from Alex's track, which went into Mexico farther south, and is momentarily freed of Alex's wake in the final hours before landfall.

If TD 2 adjusts to its new environment we could see it look a lot more like a tropical cyclone tomorrow.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


You really gonna trust a buoy observation/ship ob over dropsonde data from the hurricane hunters?
No, of course not. (though dropsondes *can* give a false impression in their 4 minutes of obs in the presence of convective cells)

Just noting that our functioning buoys cannot show us much of anything, unfortunately.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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