Invest 96L: Organizing in the Gulf

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:17 AM GMT on July 08, 2010

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Hi everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff while he's on vacation.

Invest 96L appears to be in the process of developing into a tropical cyclone. The strength and extent of it's thunderstorms is much improved from yesterday (I used CIMMS tropical storm page for my analysis). It's under an upper-level anticyclone which promotes development because it efficiently removes "exhaust" from the thunderstorms. Shear is relatively low (~10 knots), and SST's are adequate for supporting a tropical cyclone (~28 deg. C). In the most recent Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC mentioned that research flights found that upper-level conditions were promising for storm development, so they assess the chances of 96L of becoming a tropical cyclone at 80%. My take is that 96L has an 80% chance of becoming TD #2, and about a 40% chance of being named Bonnie. My reasoning is that 96L has about 24 hours to intensify before interactions with land start interfering with intensification processes. Also, model intensity forecasts are not very supportive of 96L attaining tropical storm force winds. The model track forecast aids have 96L's center of circulation making landfall somewhere between Brownsville and Corpus Christi.

Impacts
The 12Z operational GFS, HWRF, NOGAPS, and 18Z NAM tell a similar story about the surface winds. Near tropical-storm force winds affect the Texas coast from Corpus Christi to Matagorda Bay. A broad area of 30+ mph winds also affects the Deepwater Horizon oil spill recovery efforts. The 12Z Canadian global model downplays the wind strengths, and the 12Z parallel GFS fails to develop any significant surface wind (> 20 mph). That said, I believe that 96L's greatest impact will be in the form of rain.

The Rio Grande from Del Rio to Laredo is either at major flood stage or is forecast to reach major flood stage in the next 24 hours. This is due to Alex and the moisture he brought to the high terrain of northern Mexico. Nearly all of the forecast models I've looked at forecast 2-3 inches of rain over the Rio Grande Valley in the next 5 days. That will only encourage more flooding. The main forecast problem is how much rain will fall along the Gulf Coast. The parallel GFS and HWRF suggest that 4.5 to 6.5 inches of rain will fall in the Galveston/Houston area in the next 5 days. In my opinion, people living in this area should be prepared for flooding.


Fig. 1. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z parallel GFS. Operational GFS


Fig. 2. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z HWRF.


Fig. 3. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z Canadian global model. NOGAPS

Emergency Preparations
People living along the Gulf coast from south of the Rio Grande to the Texas/Louisiana border should review their emergency preparations (hurricane preparations also make for good flood preparations). Jeff has put together a guide to hurricane preparedness with plenty of links for more information.

Next Update
If 96L becomes TD2 or Bonnie, I'll have an update tonight. Shaun Tanner may post something in the morning if that's when the naming occurs. Otherwise, I'll post a tropical update tomorrow afternoon.

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791. Relix
Quoting SLU:


yep ...





I think that's the wave some models forecast to become a Hurricane and pass a few miles south of PR.
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I am keeping a close eye on TD2 now, but that Carolina low is what interests me. I live in the VA Beach region and that is something I want to keep my eyes on just incase.

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789. xcool
homelesswander thanks
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Quoting xcool:


hmmm
I hate to say it, but that loop makes TD2 look like it's just sucked in a really deep breath....

On that note, good night to all. I may or may not get in here in the a.m. depending on how early I get up .... but I expect TD2 will be approaching Bonnie designation....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21888
95L inland yesterday afternoon Pumping still
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I was going back looking at some of the earlier invests and both 90 and 92L looked better than TD 2
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The low between North Carolina and Bermuda is over SSTs of 27-28C. Subtropical transition is definitely possible before it is pulled north in 24-36 hours.

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Quoting xcool:


good analog year!!!!! imo


Hey xcool. Good call. I agree. :)
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Quoting Levi32:


Why are these so very different?

(what am I missing)
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Both version of the GFS 00z show an increase in convection with TD2.
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.
Oops.
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779. IKE
Quoting thelmores:


Well..... when you are laying on the floor...... the only way to go is up! LOL


Laying on the floor or 6 feet under?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting Levi32:


Mhm. It has been given attention for several days now. This was expected.
Technically this is the yellow circle # 3 from this weekend past. JUst the circle was a few days premature.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21888
777. xcool


hmmm
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Quoting Progster:


Link

Cold core to warm core...to a big ET
Hmmm, if it actually builds some winds and hangs around long enough, that could give more floods to coastal VA, like last November's ExIda.
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Quoting Drakoen:
TD2 will probably improve convectively overnight.


Well..... when you are laying on the floor...... the only way to go is up! LOL
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Quoting Levi32:
Guys, at least they are giving warning to the people in the Rio Grande Valley and surrounding areas that may have to deal with more lost lives due to flooding on top of Alex's previous rainfall.



Agree. It's not the technicality of declaring a TD that's crucial, but rather making considerations due the public to keep them and property as safe as possible.


And, imo, the same considerations should have been made with 95L.
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Quoting atmoaggie:
That's GFS's latest NC low. Tropical/extra-trop? Who's got a phase diagram handy?


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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Speaking of fish. I heard Tony Hayward is working on a new pilot cooking show to raise money for the clean up efforts.

"Cooking With Crude"

First episode is to focus on properly preparing a pre-oiled fillet. Claims that you don't even need a non-stick skillet?

Also heard he was teaming up with Bobby Flay on a revolutionary Mole recipe.


Remember, for all you cholesterol avoiders out there...crude oil is mostly "vegetable oil".
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Quoting Drakoen:
TD2 will probably improve convectively overnight.
Yeah, and is likely to improve between now and flooding. I never said it should be called what it is...a tropical system capable of threatening life and property.
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Quoting Levi32:
On another note....check out the trough-split upper low off of the Carolinas now having worked down to the surface and firing some convection near the center.







I was just looking at this feature...... looks like this low is heading towards the coast, but probably won't make it before the front kicks it out to sea for good.

Could we get STD3? LOL

It's got more convection than TD2 does! LOL
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768. xcool
lol
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Not surprised... this is Thursday, right? That's when earlier forecasts were suggesting we would see some sorth of semi-tropical feature out there... and I drew attention to it earlier this evening.

Isn't this also the feature reed was talking about when I first came in?


Mhm. It has been given attention for several days now. This was expected.
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766. SLU
Quoting JLPR2:


West winds?


yep ...



Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 5052
765. IKE
Navy's smart, still listing it as an invest....must be asleep....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
TD 2 is not dying, rather is as low as it can get under the conditions it's in. All it can do is get better from here on out until landfall. Tomorrow this very well may look a lot more like a tropical cyclone before landfall with more convection than it has now, if it can adjust to its environment before then.
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763. xcool


good analog year!!!!! imo
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Quoting Levi32:
On another note....check out the trough-split upper low off of the Carolinas now having worked down to the surface and firing some convection near the center.





Not surprised... this is Thursday, right? That's when earlier forecasts were suggesting we would see some sort of semi-tropical feature out there... and I drew attention to it earlier this evening.

Isn't this also the feature reed was talking about when I first came in?
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21888
Quoting Levi32:
On another note....check out the trough-split upper low off of the Carolinas now having worked down to the surface and firing some convection near the center.







interesting
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Quoting atmoaggie:
That's GFS's latest NC low. Tropical/extra-trop? Who's got a phase diagram handy?


Link

Cold core to warm core...to a big ET
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Quoting Drakoen:
TD2 will probably improve convectively overnight.


I would agree. I just have this gut feeling that it will be a big ball of convection tomorrow morning. We shall see if that verifies.
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The High pressure swinging around (1016) is doing it in.



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Quoting Levi32:
On another note....check out the trough-split upper low off of the Carolinas now having worked down to the surface and firing some convection near the center.







So, as one circle is gone due to formation, do we get another? Seems plausible.
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TD2 will probably improve convectively overnight.
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If it comes in like that TX will be lucky to get 1/2 inch of rain lol
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754. IKE
Quoting thelmores:


Nah......

Thats just a Flock of Seagulls! LOL




Six-million plus views...great song.

I'm serious...that looks like the COC of TD2......er...what's left of a dying TD....lol.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Speaking of fish. I heard Tony Hayward is working on a new pilot cooking show to raise money for the clean up efforts.

"Cooking With Crude"

First episode is to focus on properly preparing a pre-oiled fillet. Claims that you don't even need a non-stick skillet?

Also heard he was teaming up with Bobby Flay on a revolutionary Mole recipe.

Oh boy. Check out my blog for more mockery of BP, though I haven't been in there for quite a few days.
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On another note....check out the trough-split upper low off of the Carolinas now having worked down to the surface and firing some convection near the center.





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Quoting Hurricanes101:
95L was never upgraded, atcf went back and took down the TD classification

I guess we could see it given the old unnamed storm designation after the season is over


Smart...a-- the percentage was upgraded to 60%..go to bed.....GEESH!
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Quoting IKE:
Just gets worse on every updated 30 minute frame.....

Heh, yep.
Cloud top temps:

Is it even raining?
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Click FRONTS and MSLP

Floater - Water Vapor Loop
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Quoting Progster:


Not a big deal...purely an academic discussion by shirtless fish-bearing weather freaks.


Speaking of fish. I heard Tony Hayward is working on a new pilot cooking show to raise money for the clean up efforts.

"Cooking With Crude"

First episode is to focus on properly preparing a pre-oiled fillet. Claims that you don't even need a non-stick skillet?

Also heard he was teaming up with Bobby Flay on a revolutionary Mole recipe.
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well the good news i guess if you wan't to call it that is the rate of speed in which its travelling, might mean less convection issues with the daytime heating from the sun tomorrow before landfall the bad news how much rain is trop2/Bonnie going to drop in se texas any estimates, what do u guys think 6-12 inches or more now, sigh those poor people can't get a break.I am not sure but have the rivers reached there crest point from alex's staggering rainfall amounts yet.what a shame i thought for those people's sake this storm would have died over the ucitan i guess it was no enough land mass, cooler water, dry air and wind shear to do the job.
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A struggling System tonight

Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop

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Quoting Progster:


Hard to see but what's with the wind swath from Nova Scotia to Norfolk?
That's GFS's latest NC low. Tropical/extra-trop? Who's got a phase diagram handy?
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Quoting Progster:


Hard to see but what's with the wind swath from Nova Scotia to Norfolk?

An upper level non-tropical Low moving SW from south of Nova Scotia is causing an increased pressure gradient, as it is pushing against the upper level ridge over NC.
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Quoting IKE:
The patch/spin of rain that's further east on this Brownsville radar looks like the spin of TD2....



Nah......

Thats just a Flock of Seagulls! LOL


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741. IKE
Just gets worse on every updated 30 minute frame.....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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