Invest 96L: Organizing in the Gulf

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:17 AM GMT on July 08, 2010

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Hi everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff while he's on vacation.

Invest 96L appears to be in the process of developing into a tropical cyclone. The strength and extent of it's thunderstorms is much improved from yesterday (I used CIMMS tropical storm page for my analysis). It's under an upper-level anticyclone which promotes development because it efficiently removes "exhaust" from the thunderstorms. Shear is relatively low (~10 knots), and SST's are adequate for supporting a tropical cyclone (~28 deg. C). In the most recent Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC mentioned that research flights found that upper-level conditions were promising for storm development, so they assess the chances of 96L of becoming a tropical cyclone at 80%. My take is that 96L has an 80% chance of becoming TD #2, and about a 40% chance of being named Bonnie. My reasoning is that 96L has about 24 hours to intensify before interactions with land start interfering with intensification processes. Also, model intensity forecasts are not very supportive of 96L attaining tropical storm force winds. The model track forecast aids have 96L's center of circulation making landfall somewhere between Brownsville and Corpus Christi.

Impacts
The 12Z operational GFS, HWRF, NOGAPS, and 18Z NAM tell a similar story about the surface winds. Near tropical-storm force winds affect the Texas coast from Corpus Christi to Matagorda Bay. A broad area of 30+ mph winds also affects the Deepwater Horizon oil spill recovery efforts. The 12Z Canadian global model downplays the wind strengths, and the 12Z parallel GFS fails to develop any significant surface wind (> 20 mph). That said, I believe that 96L's greatest impact will be in the form of rain.

The Rio Grande from Del Rio to Laredo is either at major flood stage or is forecast to reach major flood stage in the next 24 hours. This is due to Alex and the moisture he brought to the high terrain of northern Mexico. Nearly all of the forecast models I've looked at forecast 2-3 inches of rain over the Rio Grande Valley in the next 5 days. That will only encourage more flooding. The main forecast problem is how much rain will fall along the Gulf Coast. The parallel GFS and HWRF suggest that 4.5 to 6.5 inches of rain will fall in the Galveston/Houston area in the next 5 days. In my opinion, people living in this area should be prepared for flooding.


Fig. 1. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z parallel GFS. Operational GFS


Fig. 2. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z HWRF.


Fig. 3. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z Canadian global model. NOGAPS

Emergency Preparations
People living along the Gulf coast from south of the Rio Grande to the Texas/Louisiana border should review their emergency preparations (hurricane preparations also make for good flood preparations). Jeff has put together a guide to hurricane preparedness with plenty of links for more information.

Next Update
If 96L becomes TD2 or Bonnie, I'll have an update tonight. Shaun Tanner may post something in the morning if that's when the naming occurs. Otherwise, I'll post a tropical update tomorrow afternoon.

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Quoting texwarhawk:
Since we have come to I lull in this blog I shall introduce myself. My name is Jared, come this fall I will be attending my freshman year of college majoring in atmospheric science. I have been using this website for a few years and have read almost every comment for the past two weeks. Thank You all for greatly expanding my insight into weather.


Welcome Jared. I'm not in school anymore but I've learned a lot here too. Some of our best bloggers are young people interested in meteorology also. Looking forward to your input as you get along in your studies.:)
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Quoting texwarhawk:
Since we have come to I lull in this blog I shall introduce myself. My name is Jared, come this fall I will be attending my freshman year of college majoring in atmospheric science. I have been using this website for a few years and have read almost every comment for the past two weeks. Thank You all for greatly expanding my insight into weather.


Nice! What University are you going to attend?
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what time does the D-max begin CT time
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I see we have a TD now.....by the NOAA image it doesn't look very good. Can't even tell where the center is..
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837. Conus
Thanks.
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Since we have come to I lull in this blog I shall introduce myself. My name is Jared, come this fall I will be attending my freshman year of college majoring in atmospheric science. I have been using this website for a few years and have read almost every comment for the past two weeks. Thank You all for greatly expanding my insight into weather.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 203
Quoting texwarhawk:
Hello People,
I'm going to come out of lurking for a moment-
does anyone believe the dry air to the east of TD2 will help to hinder any further intensification



Doubtful in my opinion, as the circulation is so firmly embedded in a moisture rich environment. Dry air isn't one of TD 2's problems right now.
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Quoting Patrap:
Hey,,itsa Bugs Bunny in the rainbow still Image.


LOL



LOL
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Who put the brakes on the blog?
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832. xcool
lol
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Thanks sarahjola. Cause my car is low on oil and I don't feel like walking down to the Lake with a castnet to get some.
lol! yes in deed
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Quoting Patrap:
Hey,,itsa Bugs Bunny in the rainbow still Image.

LOL



No if you look a little further down that is actually a fist with the index and pinky finger sticking up pointing at texas saying im about to rock out! lol
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Quoting houstongator:
From the NHC website:

Mission(Why We Exist)

To save lives, mitigate property loss, and improve economic efficiency by issuing the best watches, warnings, forecasts and analyses of hazardous tropical weather, and by increasing understanding of these hazards through global outreach.


Based on the possibility that this thing could ramp up to 50 or so mph, they had to put out something at 10PM in time for the news. No time to wait. It may not ramp up and it may die out - but as their first function is the safety of the US public, not science, it had to be done.

Quoting houstongator:
From the NHC website:

Mission(Why We Exist)

To save lives, mitigate property loss, and improve economic efficiency by issuing the best watches, warnings, forecasts and analyses of hazardous tropical weather, and by increasing understanding of these hazards through global outreach.


Based on the possibility that this thing could ramp up to 50 or so mph, they had to put out something at 10PM in time for the news. No time to wait. It may not ramp up and it may die out - but as their first function is the safety of the US public, not science, it had to be done.




E X A C T L Y. Thank you for posting that. The mission statement says it clearly. It's not the technicality of declaring a TD that's important, but rather as the statement says to protect life and property. They've done the right thing for 96 and they should have taken the same posture with 95.
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Thanks sarahjola. Cause my car is low on oil and I don't feel like walking down to the Lake with a castnet to get some.
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I think we put too much emphasize on categories when it comes to these storms. I'm not talking about Cat 1 versus a Cat 5, but categories that are in numerical order.

If people would prepare for the worst case scenario with in reason, then they should be alright. Is there that big of a difference in a Cat 2 storm with 108 mph wind and a Cat 3 with 112 mph winds.

A man who is in a making $205,000 per year really any richer than a man making $195,000 per year.

It's like arguing who was a better homerun hitter, Babe Ruth or Hank Aaron, it will go on for eternity with no one being proven right.

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Quoting Patrap:
Hey,,itsa Bugs Bunny in the rainbow still Image.

LOL

shhh... I'm hunting wabbits
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824. txjac
Quoting Patrap:
Hey,,itsa Bugs Bunny in the rainbow still Image.

LOL




lololololo ... too funny pat ..love it
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That cant be good..
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Hey,,itsa Bugs Bunny in the rainbow still Image.


LOL

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Quoting texwarhawk:
Hello People,
I'm going to come out of lurking for a moment-
does anyone believe the dry air to the east of TD2 will help to hinder any further intensification

Very doubtful. Not seeing that retrograde that much.

I'm out too. L8R, y'all.
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
My neighbor just came home from the tavern and told me there is a developing hurricane in the Gulf. He said he is thinking about evacuating. Is this true?
no! not at all.lol! that's good ole tavern humor.
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Gulf Of Mexico - Water Vapor Loop

Dat Big butted 1016mb HIGH is shoving 96L's envelope BIG time
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Quoting USSINS:
Ah, but a better, general and concerted alertness could have helped prevent loss of life, though fortunately, I've seen no casualties reported. They got lucky, having 15 inches of rain fall swest of Morgan City in just a short period of time. IMO, it's certainly better to err on the side of caution than not.

Atmo, I'm not talking about a rush to name a system or declare a TS without having met stringent criteria, but these tropical systems can wreak much havoc in their simplest forms/unformed. IMO, that's what the "TD" status used to be used and why it was declared, to create general awareness of an approaching dangerous system.

IIRC, they did have the flood warnings up.

Though, we have seen that much rain in a day here before, without a TD...
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Quoting texwarhawk:
Hello People,
I'm going to come out of lurking for a moment-
does anyone believe the dry air to the east of TD2 will help to hinder any further intensification



No..theres a nice sized moisture field surrounding TD2. So theres not much chance of it getting entrained into the circulation.
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AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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Quoting Conus:
Levi, how is the CV situation coming along, is it still looking promosing?


Perhaps....still a long way off. The pattern will be favorable for possible development out there after the 15th.
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TD2 will have no issue achieving TS status before landfall tomorrow night in my opinion. It's also not that big of a system so I wouldnt be surprised at all if it ramped up to a 65-70MPH tropical storm before landfall. Good night all.
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One can use the Modify feature to correct a post
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The system off the Carolina coast is interesting to view. Still looks non-tropical but I think that it may become an invest area soon. Not sure though. Thoughts?
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Hello People,
I'm going to come out of lurking for a moment-
does anyone believe the dry air to the east of TD2 will help to hinder any further intensification

Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 203
Ok so is it me, or is the center of td #2 pulling in the moisture from the east? Is that part fo the reorganization?
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809. Conus
promising, rather.
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808. Conus
Levi, how is the CV situation coming along, is it still looking promosing?
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
My neighbor just came home from the tavern and told me there is a developing hurricane in the Gulf. He said he is thinking about evacuating. Is this true?


Stormtopp drinks Uptown?

I was at Henry's on Magazine earlier..

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Quoting atmoaggie:
Ah, but the flooding is irrelevant as to whether or not it was a TD. Nothing would have changed with a 6 hour warning of TD conditions...



Ah, but a better, general and concerted alertness could have helped prevent loss of life, though fortunately, I've seen no casualties reported. They got lucky, having 15 inches of rain fall swest of Morgan City in just a short period of time. IMO, it's certainly better to err on the side of caution than not.

Atmo, I'm not talking about a rush to name a system or declare a TS without having met stringent criteria, but these tropical systems can wreak much havoc in their simplest forms/unformed. IMO, that's what the "TD" status used to be used and why it was declared, to create general awareness of an approaching dangerous system.
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Quoting Levi32:


The 2 diagrams depict different variables. The "Y-axis" on the image you posted is the 900-600mb relative thickness symmetry about the low center, indicating whether it is frontal in nature. The "X-axis" on your image is the 900-600mb thermal wind. The two together indicate whether the system is symmetric or asymmetric, and cold-core or warm-core, in the shallow levels (900-600mb thermal wind).

The image I posted also has 900-600mb thermal wind as the x-axis, but the y-axis, instead of being thickness symmetry, is 600-300mb thermal wind, indicating whether the upper portion of the storm is warm-core or cold-core. When dealing with a symmetric system, that diagram gives a more complete picture of whether the system is subtropical, fully tropical, or fully cold-core, as it describes both the shallow and deep layers of the atmospheric column.


Thanks, Levi32...out of the mouth of babes :)
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Quoting houstongator:
From the NHC website:

Mission(Why We Exist)

To save lives, mitigate property loss, and improve economic efficiency by issuing the best watches, warnings, forecasts and analyses of hazardous tropical weather, and by increasing understanding of these hazards through global outreach.


Based on the possibility that this thing could ramp up to 50 or so mph, they had to put out something at 10PM in time for the news. No time to wait. It may not ramp up and it may die out - but as their first function is the safety of the US public, not science, it had to be done.

Voice of reason.
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My neighbor just came home from the tavern and told me there is a developing hurricane in the Gulf. He said he is thinking about evacuating. Is this true?
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Right. So by that, would one correctly say that the phase diagram from GFS for TD2 shows a barelytropical?



Zoomed:


Yes and by our real-world observations we know that it is tropical. It appears as "barely" on the model because TD 2 is obviously a very weak system with little convective core to speak of, and thus its warm-core structure is ill-defined and not very strong. It has not matured to the point where it can significantly warm its core.

Strong hurricanes will dive deeper into that red box.
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Quoting USSINS:



Agree. It's not the technicality of declaring a TD that's crucial, but rather making considerations due the public to keep them and property as safe as possible.


And, imo, the same considerations should have been made with 95L.
From the NHC website:

Mission(Why We Exist)

To save lives, mitigate property loss, and improve economic efficiency by issuing the best watches, warnings, forecasts and analyses of hazardous tropical weather, and by increasing understanding of these hazards through global outreach.


Based on the possibility that this thing could ramp up to 50 or so mph, they had to put out something at 10PM in time for the news. No time to wait. It may not ramp up and it may die out - but as their first function is the safety of the US public, not science, it had to be done.

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800. SLU
Quoting Relix:


I think that's the wave some models forecast to become a Hurricane and pass a few miles south of PR.


Yeh that was 92L. The monster wave from mid-June

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Quoting atmoaggie:
Hmmm, if it actually builds some winds and hangs around long enough, that could give more floods to coastal VA, like last November's ExIda.


No big cold ridge to the W and N ...I actually think the wind swath is Swly;s caused by transient depressions on the polar front and the LLJ that develops S of NS as warm SWly's encounter the cold air/water on the n side of the gulf stream (the flow decouples due to a suddenly sharp sfc inversion).

And yes..same cyclone model, and different phase diagram...weird
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Quoting Levi32:


The 2 diagrams depict different variables. The "Y-axis" on the image you posted is the 900-600mb relative thickness symmetry about the low center, indicating whether it is frontal in nature. The "X-axis" on your image is the 900-600mb thermal wind. The two together indicate whether the system is symmetric or asymmetric, and cold-core or warm-core, in the shallow levels (900-600mb thermal wind).

The image I posted also has 900-600mb thermal wind as the x-axis, but the y-axis, instead of being thickness symmetry, is 600-300mb thermal wind, indicating whether the upper portion of the storm is warm-core or cold-core. That diagram gives a more complete picture of whether the system is subtropical, fully tropical, or fully cold-core.
Right. So by that, would one correctly say that the phase diagram from GFS for TD2 shows a barelytropical?



Zoomed:
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797. xcool
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Quoting robert88:
I was going back looking at some of the earlier invests and both 90 and 92L looked better than TD 2


again you are getting caught up in the appearance of the system

90L was determined to be non-tropical and 92L did not have sufficient organization
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794. SLU
Quoting robert88:
I was going back looking at some of the earlier invests and both 90 and 92L looked better than TD 2


and i still believe even up to now there was enough info to upgrade 92L


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Quoting robert88:
I was going back looking at some of the earlier invests and both 90 and 92L looked better than TD 2

Looks of a system do not matter.
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Why are these so very different?

(what am I missing)


The 2 diagrams depict different variables. The "Y-axis" on the image you posted is the 900-600mb relative thickness symmetry about the low center, indicating whether it is frontal in nature. The "X-axis" on your image is the 900-600mb thermal wind. The two together indicate whether the system is symmetric or asymmetric, and cold-core or warm-core, in the shallow levels (900-600mb thermal wind).

The image I posted also has 900-600mb thermal wind as the x-axis, but the y-axis, instead of being thickness symmetry, is 600-300mb thermal wind, indicating whether the upper portion of the storm is warm-core or cold-core. When dealing with a symmetric system, that diagram gives a more complete picture of whether the system is subtropical, fully tropical, or fully cold-core, as it describes both the shallow and deep layers of the atmospheric column.
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791. Relix
Quoting SLU:


yep ...





I think that's the wave some models forecast to become a Hurricane and pass a few miles south of PR.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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