Invest 96L: Organizing in the Gulf

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:17 AM GMT on July 08, 2010

Share this Blog
2
+

Hi everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff while he's on vacation.

Invest 96L appears to be in the process of developing into a tropical cyclone. The strength and extent of it's thunderstorms is much improved from yesterday (I used CIMMS tropical storm page for my analysis). It's under an upper-level anticyclone which promotes development because it efficiently removes "exhaust" from the thunderstorms. Shear is relatively low (~10 knots), and SST's are adequate for supporting a tropical cyclone (~28 deg. C). In the most recent Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC mentioned that research flights found that upper-level conditions were promising for storm development, so they assess the chances of 96L of becoming a tropical cyclone at 80%. My take is that 96L has an 80% chance of becoming TD #2, and about a 40% chance of being named Bonnie. My reasoning is that 96L has about 24 hours to intensify before interactions with land start interfering with intensification processes. Also, model intensity forecasts are not very supportive of 96L attaining tropical storm force winds. The model track forecast aids have 96L's center of circulation making landfall somewhere between Brownsville and Corpus Christi.

Impacts
The 12Z operational GFS, HWRF, NOGAPS, and 18Z NAM tell a similar story about the surface winds. Near tropical-storm force winds affect the Texas coast from Corpus Christi to Matagorda Bay. A broad area of 30+ mph winds also affects the Deepwater Horizon oil spill recovery efforts. The 12Z Canadian global model downplays the wind strengths, and the 12Z parallel GFS fails to develop any significant surface wind (> 20 mph). That said, I believe that 96L's greatest impact will be in the form of rain.

The Rio Grande from Del Rio to Laredo is either at major flood stage or is forecast to reach major flood stage in the next 24 hours. This is due to Alex and the moisture he brought to the high terrain of northern Mexico. Nearly all of the forecast models I've looked at forecast 2-3 inches of rain over the Rio Grande Valley in the next 5 days. That will only encourage more flooding. The main forecast problem is how much rain will fall along the Gulf Coast. The parallel GFS and HWRF suggest that 4.5 to 6.5 inches of rain will fall in the Galveston/Houston area in the next 5 days. In my opinion, people living in this area should be prepared for flooding.


Fig. 1. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z parallel GFS. Operational GFS


Fig. 2. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z HWRF.


Fig. 3. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z Canadian global model. NOGAPS

Emergency Preparations
People living along the Gulf coast from south of the Rio Grande to the Texas/Louisiana border should review their emergency preparations (hurricane preparations also make for good flood preparations). Jeff has put together a guide to hurricane preparedness with plenty of links for more information.

Next Update
If 96L becomes TD2 or Bonnie, I'll have an update tonight. Shaun Tanner may post something in the morning if that's when the naming occurs. Otherwise, I'll post a tropical update tomorrow afternoon.

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 891 - 841

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37Blog Index

Quoting HurricaneKing:
Has anyone else noticed they havent posted the 2am Tropical weather outlook?


Noticed the same thing too, maybe my bad joke in post 883 killed their mood too!
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 495 Comments: 3688
890. xcool
:0
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneKing:
Has anyone else noticed they havent posted the 2am Tropical weather outlook?


It's been out at least 38 minutes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Has anyone else noticed they havent posted the 2am Tropical weather outlook?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Phew, I am glad someone else posted, thought I killed the mood tonight with my lame joke in post 883.
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 495 Comments: 3688
Quoting PtownBryan:


No if you look a little further down that is actually a fist with the index and pinky finger sticking up pointing at texas saying im about to rock out! lol


That would be the Longhorn hand-sign.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting texwarhawk:
NC- even though it may seem harder to develop could that trough bring in much needed moisture into the TD that could ultimately wrap around the COC? or is that something that just doesn't happen?


Right now, the famed bugs-bunny band of convection is the latest moisture burst along the surface trough, with the center just west of that. Right now, doesn't look like the center is wrapping that convection in nicely.

If it does (i.e. when a burst of convection develops over the center), then the depression's central pressure could fall and give it a fighting chance to become the focal point of more convection along the trough, and even more development.

But if it doesn't, the center will lose its definition as the lowest pressure in the trough, and it will simply disappaer in the trough.

Either way, trough or not, this sytem will bring rain into NE Mexico and S Texas.
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 495 Comments: 3688
Quoting WatchingThisOne:


Bugs Bonnie?? lol


More like Bugs Donnie if convection doesn't develop at the center (get it, Donnie=Done), okay now I sound ridiculous.
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 495 Comments: 3688
NC- even though it may seem harder to develop could that trough bring in much needed moisture into the TD that could ultimately wrap around the COC? or is that something that just doesn't happen?
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 203
To elaborate, a tropical cyclone forming within a surface trough is tough. Anywhere in that trough, convection will fire in the trough's low-level inflow and convergence. The low pressure center must fight to become the dominant center of convergence within the trough.

Just look a the "bugs-bunny" looking band east of the center, that's along the surface convergence of the surface trough. When a tropical cyclone forms outside of a trough, its center of low pressure is the only point of convergence, and all convection organizes about its center, and it has an easier time developing.
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 495 Comments: 3688
Quoting texwarhawk:
I can't find a COC or anything building for TD2 and I remember it looking like this last night but does anyone believe that it can pull itself together like it did today this close to land???


IMO, it may not come back, and it could even dissipate before landfall. This is because this thing is struggling in a surface trough environment. The surface trough tonight is a band of north-south oriented surface low pressure. The low pressure center of TD 2 will simply fade away in the trough if it cannot fire convection at the center.
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 495 Comments: 3688
This is a tropical depression.....? I've seen better looking TDs at an eight year olds football game.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I can't find a COC or anything building for TD2 and I remember it looking like this last night but does anyone believe that it can pull itself together like it did today this close to land???
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 203
td 2 looks ill..could center have reformed 100 miles ese?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Evening all,

TD 2 doesn't look that great. If you want to understand why, primarily its because it formed along a surface trough (see my new blog entry on this)

The TS warnings should be respected as always because its not easy to predict Tropical cyclone intensity. But, I believe TD 2 may fail to become TS Bonnie. TD 2 seems similar to TD 11 of 1999, which also formed along a surface trough.
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 495 Comments: 3688


[ Source Link ]
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
871. xcool
GFS sux
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting texwarhawk:



University of Louisiana-Monroe, I'm from Houston though.


Oh wow i'm currently a Junior there persuing my Atmospheric Science degree
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
868. xcool
tropical storm before landfall maybe .......
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting texwarhawk:



University of Louisiana-Monroe, I'm from Houston though.


Tiger Bait!

LOL just messing. Good luck at school!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
865. xcool
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Quoting PtownBryan:


Nice! What University are you going to attend?


University of Louisiana-Monroe, I'm from Houston though.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 203
Quoting Patrap:
Hey,,itsa Bugs Bunny in the rainbow still Image.


LOL



Bugs Bonnie?? lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
For some people, any extra drop of rain is devastating.


E x a c t l y! Thanks for posting that. Truly tragic, but the MSM has once again failed to make the real truth readily available. I guess Lohan going to jail for 90 days is considerably more important. UGH!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Back on for a bit.. TD2 looks to have gotten worse.. If this doesn't do it tonight, I give it very little chance during the day. Lets go TD2!
On The other hand, it appears we will have 97L very soon, maybe a yellow circle at 2 a.m.?? probably not, yet they can classify this mess :P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
860. xcool
RobbieLSU lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RobbieLSU:


I'm kinda bored and I couldn't help myself. Admins, please don't ban me for modifying these images. I apologize beforehand if this counts as breaking the rules:





LOL...well at least it should be a friendly storm......just don't feed it to many carrots it might make em grow.... :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Hey,,itsa Bugs Bunny in the rainbow still Image.


LOL



When it is a TS lets call it Bugs Bonnie!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
To those of you joking about evacuations earlier...

"By JORGE VARGAS, Associated Press Writer Jorge Vargas, Associated Press Writer – 1 hr 40 mins ago

NUEVO LAREDO, Mexico – Reservoirs along the Texas-Mexico border rose to their highest levels in decades after days of drenching rain, forcing officials to close two border bridges Wednesday, dump water into flooded rivers and evacuate tens of thousands from homes as a new storm headed toward the region.

The dramatic rise of the Rio Grande caused by Hurricane Alex and continuing rains forced the closure of one major border crossing between downtown Laredo, Texas, and Nuevo Laredo, Mexico, and another crossing known as the Colombia Bridge, about 20 miles upriver.

Officials evacuated the flood-threatened Vega Verde subdivision in Del Rio, Texas, some 110 miles (180 kilometers) upstream from Laredo, while high waters in the northern Mexican state of Coahuila have already damaged some 10,000 homes — many swamped in waist-deep water.

"That means there are 40,000 people who don't have any place to sleep," Gov. Humberto Moreira told the Televisa network Wednesday.

To the southeast, Mexican officials evacuated nearly 18,000 people from houses in Ciudad Anahuac for fear that water would overflow the Venustiano Carranza dam and threaten lives. Mexico's National Water Commission said the dam currently had the largest emergency water release in the country.

Ciudad Anahuac Mayor Santos Garza Garcia said at least 1,500 homes had been flooded in the town of Rodriguez, across the Salado River from his city.

Officials in Laredo urged residents of low-lying areas to evacuate.

An airplane on an inspection tour of the flood zone crashed Wednesday, killing the mayor of the border town of Piedras Negras, the state public works director, a municipal civil defense official, a government photographer and the pilot and co-pilot. The plane was flying over a rain-swollen reservoir about 25 miles (40 kilometers) east of Eagle Pass, Texas, when it went down, said Ricardo Castillo, a spokesman for the border state of Coahuila.

Hurricane Alex dumped heavy rains on the region last week, causing flooding that killed at least 12 people in the Mexican state of Nuevo Leon, where Ciudad Anahuac is located, and leaving some 130,000 without water service.

The U.S. National Weather Service said the second tropical depression of the Atlantic hurricane season had formed over the western Gulf of Mexic and issued a tropical storm watch for the Mexico and Texas coasts on both sides of the Rio Grande.

The depression was about 265 miles (425 kilometers) east-southeast of Brownsville, Texas. Maximum sustained winds were about 35 mph (55 kph).Forecasters said it could become a tropical storm before hitting land and dumping more rain.

Water behind the binational Amistad Dam on the Rio Grande already is at its highest level since 1974, according to the International Boundary and Water Commission, forcing officials to release water from it at the fastest rate in a quarter century.

The commission said the downstream Falcon dam would probably reach capacity within the next few days, suggesting future releases there will raise water levels along the river's lower reaches.

Much of that downstream area is protected against flooding by levees, but Mexico's National Water Commission said it was worried about low-lying settlements, most built by poor people without official permission.

"One of country's most serious problems are irregular settlements on federal land and in flood-prone areas," it said.

Authorities walked a painful, delicate line — forced to release reservoir waters they know will add to flooding in hopes of avoiding worse disasters.

It was an unusual state of affairs in a semiarid region where Mexican and U.S. officials often squabble over rights to scarce water.

Garza Garcia, the Ciudad Anahuac mayor, said 20 floodgates had been opened by late Tuesday at the Venustiano Carranza Dam, which was releasing 600 cubic meters (21,190 cubic feet) per second into the Salado River, a tributary of the Rio Grande.

"It was preferable having controlled flooding than having the whole town disappear," Garza Garcia said. "The situation is very critical."

Luis Lobo, who drove 16 people from Ciudad Anahuac to Nuevo Laredo, said hundreds of people from Ciudad Anahuac and nearby villages left by foot and were by the side of the road.

"They are out in the open. Men, women, and children with nothing to eat," Lobo said after arriving in Nuevo Laredo.

Garza Garcia said soldiers planned to take food to those stranded.

Sally Spener, public affairs officer for the binational Water Commission that operates the Amistad Dam, said the agency had tried to limit releases "so that we would not exacerbate the flooding."

In Laredo, city spokeswoman Xochitl Mora said officials had telephoned 3,000 homes in low-lying areas urging the residents to leave before the Rio Grande crested. She said a shelter would be opened at the civic center.

Mora said Bridge One was closed as a precaution ahead of the expected crest on Thursday. The water was expected to rise as high as 43 feet late Thursday — high enough to top the bridge.

Officials removed the heavy steel shade canopies to ease the weight on Bridge One before the heaviest water pressure comes with the river crest, she said. About 11,000 pedestrians and 13,000 vehicles use the downtown bridge daily.

A second bridge leading into the northwestern edge of Laredo in an industrial area was also being closed to traffic before the river crests."

For some people, any extra drop of rain is devastating.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting homelesswanderer:


No worries. Ya didn't miss nothing good. :) Well this toothache won't give up. Gonna try to knock myself out now. Night everyone. See y'all tomorrow.


Night....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Hey,,itsa Bugs Bunny in the rainbow still Image.


I'm kinda bored and I couldn't help myself. Admins, please don't ban me for modifying these images. I apologize beforehand if this counts as breaking the rules:



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Night Homeless :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TexasHurricane:


oh really, I must of missed it.


No worries. Ya didn't miss nothing good. :) Well this toothache won't give up. Gonna try to knock myself out now. Night everyone. See y'all tomorrow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


It looks better than TD2. lol


Lol, sure does in a few ways. It has more vigorous of a spin too.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting homelesswanderer:


More like off and on. Was kinda crazy in here earlier so I left.


oh really, I must of missed it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
850. xcool
ha
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
Gradually colder thunderstorm tops trying to pop with the trough-split low between North Carolina and Bermuda.



It looks better than TD2. lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TexasHurricane:


Your still on homeless? :)


More like off and on. Was kinda crazy in here earlier so I left.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Gradually colder thunderstorm tops trying to pop with the trough-split low between North Carolina and Bermuda.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I see it here


But not here



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Welcome Jared. I'm not in school anymore but I've learned a lot here too. Some of our best bloggers are young people interested in meteorology also. Looking forward to your input as you get along in your studies.:)


Your still on homeless? :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
842. xcool
:0
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting texwarhawk:
Since we have come to I lull in this blog I shall introduce myself. My name is Jared, come this fall I will be attending my freshman year of college majoring in atmospheric science. I have been using this website for a few years and have read almost every comment for the past two weeks. Thank You all for greatly expanding my insight into weather.


Welcome Jared. I'm not in school anymore but I've learned a lot here too. Some of our best bloggers are young people interested in meteorology also. Looking forward to your input as you get along in your studies.:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 891 - 841

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
66 °F
Overcast