Invest 96L: Organizing in the Gulf

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:17 AM GMT on July 08, 2010

Share this Blog
2
+

Hi everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff while he's on vacation.

Invest 96L appears to be in the process of developing into a tropical cyclone. The strength and extent of it's thunderstorms is much improved from yesterday (I used CIMMS tropical storm page for my analysis). It's under an upper-level anticyclone which promotes development because it efficiently removes "exhaust" from the thunderstorms. Shear is relatively low (~10 knots), and SST's are adequate for supporting a tropical cyclone (~28 deg. C). In the most recent Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC mentioned that research flights found that upper-level conditions were promising for storm development, so they assess the chances of 96L of becoming a tropical cyclone at 80%. My take is that 96L has an 80% chance of becoming TD #2, and about a 40% chance of being named Bonnie. My reasoning is that 96L has about 24 hours to intensify before interactions with land start interfering with intensification processes. Also, model intensity forecasts are not very supportive of 96L attaining tropical storm force winds. The model track forecast aids have 96L's center of circulation making landfall somewhere between Brownsville and Corpus Christi.

Impacts
The 12Z operational GFS, HWRF, NOGAPS, and 18Z NAM tell a similar story about the surface winds. Near tropical-storm force winds affect the Texas coast from Corpus Christi to Matagorda Bay. A broad area of 30+ mph winds also affects the Deepwater Horizon oil spill recovery efforts. The 12Z Canadian global model downplays the wind strengths, and the 12Z parallel GFS fails to develop any significant surface wind (> 20 mph). That said, I believe that 96L's greatest impact will be in the form of rain.

The Rio Grande from Del Rio to Laredo is either at major flood stage or is forecast to reach major flood stage in the next 24 hours. This is due to Alex and the moisture he brought to the high terrain of northern Mexico. Nearly all of the forecast models I've looked at forecast 2-3 inches of rain over the Rio Grande Valley in the next 5 days. That will only encourage more flooding. The main forecast problem is how much rain will fall along the Gulf Coast. The parallel GFS and HWRF suggest that 4.5 to 6.5 inches of rain will fall in the Galveston/Houston area in the next 5 days. In my opinion, people living in this area should be prepared for flooding.


Fig. 1. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z parallel GFS. Operational GFS


Fig. 2. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z HWRF.


Fig. 3. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z Canadian global model. NOGAPS

Emergency Preparations
People living along the Gulf coast from south of the Rio Grande to the Texas/Louisiana border should review their emergency preparations (hurricane preparations also make for good flood preparations). Jeff has put together a guide to hurricane preparedness with plenty of links for more information.

Next Update
If 96L becomes TD2 or Bonnie, I'll have an update tonight. Shaun Tanner may post something in the morning if that's when the naming occurs. Otherwise, I'll post a tropical update tomorrow afternoon.

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 941 - 891

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37Blog Index

941. robert88
8:04 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
Quoting IKE:


That...or Stewart and his new buddy found some tree to burn...if ya know what I mean and thought they saw something with...I hate to even call it a TD.


From the 1am advisory....

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...

Ya think?


Must of got a hold of the skunky funky heh LOL Let's just hope everything is all good over there when August and September arrive.
Member Since: May 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 907
939. NCHurricane2009
8:00 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
One more hour to see if the next advisory declares TD2 dead. If not dead by 5 AM, dead by 11 AM.
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 474 Comments: 3668
938. aspectre
8:00 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
inre post906, I subtracted when I shouldn't have. So I edited in the corrections:
"TD2...was 215miles(~346.2kilometres) away from the coast..."
and "...heading toward Brownsville,Texas landfall within 13hours..."

Actual calculation led to landfall in 12hours54minutes from when I posted


Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
937. IKE
7:59 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
Quoting robert88:
The center or what was the center should be making landfall in about 6-8 hours. The NHC sure did goof on the graph with timing. There must of been some fresh meat working in Miami tonight lol


Looking at a 6 hour loop of it....I agree, it will be on land in 6 hours at the rate it's moving.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
936. IKE
7:57 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
Quoting robert88:
The center or what was the center should be making landfall in about 6-8 hours. The NHC sure did goof on the graph with timing. There must of been some fresh meat working in Miami tonight lol


That...or Stewart and his new buddy found some tree to burn...if ya know what I mean and thought they saw something with...I hate to even call it a TD.


From the 1am advisory....

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...

Ya think?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
935. NCHurricane2009
7:56 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
The history of TD2's origins (on my blog) show that it formed along a surface trough environment, that's why it looks so elongated north-south right now, and also why its struggling.

When a tropical cyclone forms near or in a trough axis, it struggles to become the dominant point of surface convergence and hence convection. The surface trough "steals" the some convection because it too has surface convergence. Its hard for all of the convection to develop over the TD's center when it can also develop anywhere else along the trough. If this thing doesn't fight and get convection over the center, it'll die in the trough.
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 474 Comments: 3668
934. robert88
7:53 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
The center or what was the center should be making landfall in about 6-8 hours. The NHC sure did goof on the graph with timing. There must of been some fresh meat working in Miami tonight lol
Member Since: May 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 907
933. IKE
7:46 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
Woke up and had to take a look....LOL!




You can see the "center", heading for the coast on the Brownsville radar....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
932. robert88
7:41 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
Quoting TampaSpin:
NHC is probably ashamed to post it after upgrading 96L to TD2 ......that was crazy!


LMAO... The LLC has stretched out bigtime and i am starting to wonder if it even still exists. This is the worst right off the press TD i have seen in quite a while. 90L looked better than this mess.
Member Since: May 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 907
931. transitzone
7:37 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
Quoting Kristina40:
I remember Dennis. He wasn't much of anything but he was my first experience with a Tropical...I went crazy pacing from window to window, watching the winds so I'd know when the tree in the front yard would be "dangerous"...Ugh.

LOL, grok that. I walked outside in what passed for the eye of Carla when it passed over Arlington, Tx, had a moderate sized pecan tree leaning over 45 degrees one way. When she passed, it was flat on the ground, the other direction. Snapped the tap root about 3 ft down. Its a 5 hr drive today to the coast, longer back then - was pre-Interstate
Member Since: March 22, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 62
930. NCHurricane2009
7:25 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
Quoting HurricaneKing:


LOL Well i guess you could live off IV injections right? LOL

Anyway the system off the east coast looks like its beginning the transition to subtropical but I doubt it will make it.

Td 2 looks like its opening back into a wave. Its easier to find the llc of the broad subtropical feature then it is to find td 2's llc.

And since its almost 3:30am I think im going to call it a night.


G'night,

If I know what's good for me, I should probably go to sleep too, but I haven't been able to sleep at night for a little while.
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 474 Comments: 3668
929. HurricaneKing
7:22 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


LOL, I was about to make a more off-comment topic, but I have to get this out of my system.

I saw on the history channel, the guy hosting the show food tech at the intro said "I am Mark, I've been eating food my whole life," and I laughed so much more than I have in a while, 'cause I was like, everyone who is alive has been eating food their whole life.

Okay, back to the tropics...conclusion...
System off of the carolina coast looks like it has some subtropical development potential. TD 2 in my opinion is struggling to maintain a closed circulation within a surface trough it develop within.


LOL Well i guess you could live off IV injections right? LOL

Anyway the system off the east coast looks like its beginning the transition to subtropical but I doubt it will make it.

Td 2 looks like its opening back into a wave. Its easier to find the llc of the broad subtropical feature then it is to find td 2's llc.

And since its almost 3:30am I think im going to call it a night.
Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 71 Comments: 2481
928. NCHurricane2009
7:17 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
Quoting HurricaneKing:


Very nice. My major right now is meteorology with a minor in environmental sciences.

((I wonder how off topic this conversation is LOL))


LOL, I was about to make a more off-comment topic, but I have to get this out of my system.

I saw on the history channel, the guy hosting the show food tech at the intro said "I am Mark, I've been eating food my whole life," and I laughed so much more than I have in a while, 'cause I was like, everyone who is alive has been eating food their whole life.

Okay, back to the tropics...conclusion...
System off of the carolina coast looks like it has some subtropical development potential. TD 2 in my opinion is struggling to maintain a closed circulation within a surface trough it develop within.
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 474 Comments: 3668
927. HurricaneKing
7:12 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


LOL, I did get my meteorology minor from NC State too, but I have graduated from state.

Tropical weather watching just a hobby. Did that minor just in case my major (mechanical engineering) failed me, LOL.


Very nice. My major right now is meteorology with a minor in environmental sciences.

((I wonder how off topic this conversation is LOL))
Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 71 Comments: 2481
926. NCHurricane2009
7:09 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
Quoting HurricaneKing:


I live in Raleigh most of the year. Im in the process of getting my met degree at Nc State.


LOL, I did get my meteorology minor from NC State too, but I have graduated from state.

Tropical weather watching just a hobby. Did that minor just in case my major (mechanical engineering) failed me, LOL.
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 474 Comments: 3668
925. HurricaneKing
7:07 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Cool, nice to see someone else tonight is blogging from NC. I live just outside of Raleigh.

I'll keep on watching this one alongside with you.


I live in Raleigh most of the year. Im in the process of getting my met degree at Nc State.
Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 71 Comments: 2481
924. NCHurricane2009
7:06 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
Quoting HurricaneKing:


I know it's supposed to bring us thunderstorms tomorrow ((I live 20 minutes from New Bern North Carolina)) Im not going to say no that the low cant since you can never say never but most of the models keep the ull and the surface reflection just off the coast of North Carolina at its closest approach.


Cool, nice to see someone else tonight is blogging from NC. I live just outside of Raleigh.

I'll keep on watching this one alongside with you.
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 474 Comments: 3668
923. HurricaneKing
7:03 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Sounds like it'll wobble around underneath that ULL, then accelerate off to the NE once the front and its associated upper trough steers it.

I also know the ULL is retrograding westward (its supposed to bring me some possible T-storms tomorrow). Is there any chance that surface low/subtropical cyclone thingy could make landfall in NC (tracking west before turning NE)?


I know it's supposed to bring us thunderstorms tomorrow ((I live 20 minutes from New Bern North Carolina)) Im not going to say no that the low cant since you can never say never but most of the models keep the ull and the surface reflection just off the coast of North Carolina at its closest approach.
Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 71 Comments: 2481
922. xcool
7:01 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
SHOWS CV VERY WEAK
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670
921. NCHurricane2009
7:00 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
Quoting HurricaneKing:


I dont think if it develops it will become fully tropical. There is a front coming into the area by Saturday that will sweep it out to sea. It has now until late Friday to get together so it probably wont make it but I wont be surprised if its invested later today.


Sounds like it'll wobble around underneath that ULL, then accelerate off to the NE once the front and its associated upper trough steers it.

I also know the ULL is retrograding westward (its supposed to bring me some possible T-storms tomorrow). Is there any chance that surface low/subtropical cyclone thingy could make landfall in NC (tracking west before turning NE)?
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 474 Comments: 3668
920. xcool
6:59 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
WOW ECWMF
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670
919. HurricaneKing
6:55 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Wow, yeah, there is a surface low at those coordinates on that analysis cited in post 903.

Well, this is more interesting than I gave it credit earlier. If it develops, it'll likely be a subtropical cyclone before it becomes fully tropical because its under the ULL.


I dont think if it develops it will become fully tropical. There is a front coming into the area by Saturday that will sweep it out to sea. It has now until late Friday to get together so it probably wont make it but I wont be surprised if its invested later today.
Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 71 Comments: 2481
918. NCHurricane2009
6:50 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
Quoting HurricaneKing:
Oh and on that loop the area of low pressure im talking about is just to the west of the northern ball of convection. Its located at 33.5N and 71.5W. (Imo)


Wow, yeah, there is a surface low at those coordinates on that analysis cited in post 903.

Well, this is more interesting than I gave it credit earlier. If it develops, it'll likely be a subtropical cyclone before it becomes fully tropical because its under the ULL.
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 474 Comments: 3668
917. aspectre
6:50 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
908 NCHurricane2009 "Since TD2's center is weak right now, the center point of landfall doesn't matter. The effects in Bronsville will be the same as the areas around Brownsville if the center did make landfall there. This thing will make weak wind, rain will be the primary impact."

True. But TD2 has organised itself recently, and has yet to undergo DiurnalMaximum. And the aftcasted landfall time is well after DMax. Plus it is moving quite rapidly. So if it slows down, there is a good chance that TD2 will muscle up to become a strong TropicalStorm.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
916. HurricaneKing
6:48 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
I think at 8am it may have a 20-30% circle put on it if the covection maintains/expands.
Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 71 Comments: 2481
915. HurricaneKing
6:47 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


I see what you are saying. Is there a surface low center under the ULL? If so, perhaps subtropical cyclone development possible. If not, this has got a long way to go.

I have been watching this cut-off ULL since July 4th, it needs a consolidated surface low pressure center to develop though.


I've also been watching this area for awhile. Most of the day there was an open swirl just under the ull on visible but as it was getting dark and the convection began to fire it look like it was closing off in that general area.

Right now using all the different views I have it appears that a low pressure area is on the edge of the convection nearly stationary/drifting north. Thats why I believe subtropical development may be in the process of occuring.
Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 71 Comments: 2481
914. NCHurricane2009
6:44 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
Quoting HurricaneKing:


I respectfully disagree. If they were willing to upgrade 96L to td 2 then that should at least have a yellow circle. The northern area under the ull is producing enough organized albeit weak convection and it appears the spin may be tightening up.

Link


I see what you are saying. Is there a surface low center under the ULL? If so, perhaps subtropical cyclone development possible. If not, this has got a long way to go.

I have been watching this cut-off ULL since July 4th, it needs a consolidated surface low pressure center to develop though.
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 474 Comments: 3668
913. xcool
6:40 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
Alex (85 ACE = 7.3725)
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670
912. HurricaneKing
6:39 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
Oh and on that loop the area of low pressure im talking about is just to the west of the northern ball of convection. Its located at 33.5N and 71.5W. (Imo)
Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 71 Comments: 2481
910. Kristina40
6:37 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
I remember Dennis. He wasn't much of anything but he was my first experience with a Tropical...I went crazy pacing from window to window, watching the winds so I'd know when the tree in the front yard would be "dangerous"...Ugh.
Member Since: June 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 760
908. NCHurricane2009
6:36 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
Quoting aspectre:
TropicalDepressionTwo was^heading toward a Brownsville,Texas landfall in 10hours10minutes
(Straightline^projection using its last 2 positions. Take with HUGE grain of salt)

Copy&paste 23.9N93.9W-24.3N94.5W, 24.3N94.5W-26.1N97.3W, TAM, MOB, PBI, SAL, 28.7N88.4W into the GreatCircleMapper.

Shortest red line denotes the movement between last two positions. Below the map shows:
TD2 had a heading of 306.1degrees (~8.9degrees west of NorthWest) while traveling
a distance of 47miles(~[75.7]kilometres) over 3hours at a speed of ~[15.7]mph(~[25.3]k/h),
and was 168miles(~270.5kilometres) away from the coast in the direction of its heading.

^ Straightline projections are not forecasts of what will happen in the future,
especially not for TropicalCyclones. They aftcast what has already happened.
* DeepwaterHorizon is marked at 28.7N88.4W


Since TD2's center is weak right now, the center point of landfall doesn't matter. The effects in Bronsville will be the same as the areas around Brownsville if the center did make landfall there. This thing will make weak wind, rain will be the primary impact.
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 474 Comments: 3668
907. HurricaneKing
6:35 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


I disagree:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_00Z.gif

The surface analysis shows several low pressure centers. There is no dominant surface low off of the east coast to make this thing worthy of a yellow circle IMO (in my opinion).


I respectfully disagree. If they were willing to upgrade 96L to td 2 then that should at least have a yellow circle. The northern area under the ull is producing enough organized albeit weak convection and it appears the spin may be tightening up.

Link
Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 71 Comments: 2481
906. aspectre
6:34 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
TropicalDepressionTwo was^heading toward Brownsville,Texas landfall within 13hours
(Straightline^projection using its last 2 positions. Take with HUGE grain of salt)

Copy&paste 23.9N93.9W-24.3N94.5W, 24.3N94.5W-26.1N97.3W, TAM, MOB, PBI, SAL, 28.7N88.4W into the GreatCircleMapper

Shortest red line denotes the movement between last two positions. Below the map shows:
TD2 had a heading of 306.1degrees (~8.9degrees west of NorthWest) while traveling
a distance of 47miles(~75.7kilometres) over 3hours at a speed of ~15.7mph(~25.3k/h),
and was 215miles(~346.2kilometres) away from the coast in the direction of its heading.

^ Straightline projections are not forecasts of what will happen in the future,
especially not for TropicalCyclones. They aftcast what has already happened.
* DeepwaterHorizon is marked at 28.7N88.4W
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
905. NCHurricane2009
6:32 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
Quoting weatherblog:
I'd say this year has been even in terms of activity with 2005.

92L=Arlene
Alex=Bonnie
95L=Cindy
TD2=Dennis

Of course, not literally, but you get my point.


June 2010 was actually more active than June 2005, because Major Hurricane Alex released more ACE (accumulated cyclone energy) than Tropical Storms Arlene and Bret did combined.

We'll have to see how July turns out.
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 474 Comments: 3668
904. xcool
6:31 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
we had 2 TD .1 BIG HURRICANE
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670
903. NCHurricane2009
6:30 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
Quoting HurricaneKing:
And now its out. Nothing on it. Personally I expected a yellow circle on the trough split off the east coast.


I disagree:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_00Z.gif

The surface analysis shows several low pressure centers. There is no dominant surface low off of the east coast to make this thing worthy of a yellow circle IMO (in my opinion).
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 474 Comments: 3668
902. xcool
6:30 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670
901. weatherblog
6:30 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
I'd say this year has been even in terms of activity with 2005.

92L=Arlene
Alex=Bonnie
95L=Cindy
TD2=Dennis

Of course, not literally, but you get my point.
Member Since: July 10, 2006 Posts: 27 Comments: 1623
NHC is probably ashamed to post it after upgrading 96L to TD2 ......that was crazy!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneKing:



The advisory for tropical depression 2 has been out. The TWD has been out and the Tropical weather outlook for the pacific has been out. The Tropical weather outlook for the Atlantic is not out.


Haha, you're right. I'd just automatically homed in on the new advisory and then forgot about the TWO.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting btwntx08:
looks something is trying to fire just north of the center


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn-l.jpg

That's the latest image of TD 2 I have, I don't see really any decent convection north of the center. Do you have the link or URL of the image you are looking at?
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 474 Comments: 3668
And now its out. Nothing on it. Personally I expected a yellow circle on the trough split off the east coast.
Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 71 Comments: 2481
Quoting jamesrainier:


It's been out at least 38 minutes.



The advisory for tropical depression 2 has been out. The TWD has been out and the Tropical weather outlook for the pacific has been out. The Tropical weather outlook for the Atlantic is not out.
Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 71 Comments: 2481
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


More like Bugs Donnie if convection doesn't develop at the center (get it, Donnie=Done), okay now I sound ridiculous.



You probably should get some sleep. ;P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneKing:
Has anyone else noticed they havent posted the 2am Tropical weather outlook?


Noticed the same thing too, maybe my bad joke in post 883 killed their mood too!
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 474 Comments: 3668

Viewing: 941 - 891

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.