Invest 96L: Organizing in the Gulf

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:17 AM GMT on July 08, 2010

Share this Blog
2
+

Hi everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff while he's on vacation.

Invest 96L appears to be in the process of developing into a tropical cyclone. The strength and extent of it's thunderstorms is much improved from yesterday (I used CIMMS tropical storm page for my analysis). It's under an upper-level anticyclone which promotes development because it efficiently removes "exhaust" from the thunderstorms. Shear is relatively low (~10 knots), and SST's are adequate for supporting a tropical cyclone (~28 deg. C). In the most recent Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC mentioned that research flights found that upper-level conditions were promising for storm development, so they assess the chances of 96L of becoming a tropical cyclone at 80%. My take is that 96L has an 80% chance of becoming TD #2, and about a 40% chance of being named Bonnie. My reasoning is that 96L has about 24 hours to intensify before interactions with land start interfering with intensification processes. Also, model intensity forecasts are not very supportive of 96L attaining tropical storm force winds. The model track forecast aids have 96L's center of circulation making landfall somewhere between Brownsville and Corpus Christi.

Impacts
The 12Z operational GFS, HWRF, NOGAPS, and 18Z NAM tell a similar story about the surface winds. Near tropical-storm force winds affect the Texas coast from Corpus Christi to Matagorda Bay. A broad area of 30+ mph winds also affects the Deepwater Horizon oil spill recovery efforts. The 12Z Canadian global model downplays the wind strengths, and the 12Z parallel GFS fails to develop any significant surface wind (> 20 mph). That said, I believe that 96L's greatest impact will be in the form of rain.

The Rio Grande from Del Rio to Laredo is either at major flood stage or is forecast to reach major flood stage in the next 24 hours. This is due to Alex and the moisture he brought to the high terrain of northern Mexico. Nearly all of the forecast models I've looked at forecast 2-3 inches of rain over the Rio Grande Valley in the next 5 days. That will only encourage more flooding. The main forecast problem is how much rain will fall along the Gulf Coast. The parallel GFS and HWRF suggest that 4.5 to 6.5 inches of rain will fall in the Galveston/Houston area in the next 5 days. In my opinion, people living in this area should be prepared for flooding.


Fig. 1. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z parallel GFS. Operational GFS


Fig. 2. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z HWRF.


Fig. 3. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z Canadian global model. NOGAPS

Emergency Preparations
People living along the Gulf coast from south of the Rio Grande to the Texas/Louisiana border should review their emergency preparations (hurricane preparations also make for good flood preparations). Jeff has put together a guide to hurricane preparedness with plenty of links for more information.

Next Update
If 96L becomes TD2 or Bonnie, I'll have an update tonight. Shaun Tanner may post something in the morning if that's when the naming occurs. Otherwise, I'll post a tropical update tomorrow afternoon.

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1041 - 991

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37Blog Index





Surface pressures remain depressed in the area of the ULL/ Bahama wave feature. Seems a little moist to be just on the upper levels. . It may be working its way downward
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


Doesn't look likely.

Remember..I'm one that said 96L wouldn't be a TD!

TD2...moving on in....


Death by hypothermia..

You did cancel that eye doctors appointment and pack a few crows on dry ice for shipping didn't you???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
I was looking at that yesterday with the newest wave just exiting the African coast and saying it looked like the wave that would pull the ITCZ north with it... doesn't the size / location of the AB high have some influence on how quickly the ITCZ moves north?


I don't know the answer (gonna have to research this one and was hoping that Storm or 456 might have a clue). I know that the TUTT is sandwiched between the sub-tropical ridge to the North and the sub-equatorial ridge to the South adjacent to the ITCZ but the current location of the A-B high appears to be well to the North.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


Doesn't look likely.

Remember..I'm one that said 96L wouldn't be a TD!


Doesn't look like much of one right now either.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MahFL:
I said the other day all the CV waves are far too south.


I think they actually dipped down since the wave which created Alex traversed across the Atlantic...My point is that it will take a little bit of time for it to rise again so I would not expect any CV "action" in the short term.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1036. calder
Quoting MahFL:
I think TD2's forward motion is slowing.


Can't see any change in speed on latest sat loops...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1035. beell
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
Recon is on the way



They should hurry...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. Other than TD 2, has anyone else noticed that the Atlantic ITCZ has actually dropped down a few degrees in latitude the last couple of weeks? Just curious as to what has caused this drop since the ITCZ normally continues to "rise" in the Summer; it was actually running at around 8-9 degress North a few weeks ago (where Alex spinned up from) but it has dropped down to around 4-5 degrees North. Anyone have an idea as to what may have caused this recent dip?.........Thanks.
I was looking at that yesterday with the newest wave just exiting the African coast and saying it looked like the wave that would pull the ITCZ north with it... doesn't the size / location of the AB high have some influence on how quickly the ITCZ moves north?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TD#2 seems to be speeding up and landfall will be much sooner than forecasted
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1032. IKE
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Any chance for something to spin up from it ?


Doesn't look likely.

Remember..I'm one that said 96L wouldn't be a TD!

TD2...moving on in....

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1031. MahFL
I said the other day all the CV waves are far too south.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1030. MahFL
I think TD2's forward motion is slowing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Morning. Other than TD 2, has anyone else noticed that the Atlantic ITCZ has actually dropped down a few degrees in latitude the last couple of weeks? Just curious as to what has caused this drop since the ITCZ normally continues to "rise" in the Summer; it was actually running at around 8-9 degress North a few weeks ago (where Alex spinned up from) but it has dropped down to around 4-5 degrees North. Anyone have an idea as to what may have caused this recent dip?.........Thanks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


Looks headed across the Yucatan....

SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 AM EDT THU JUL 08 2010

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 78W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS
THE SOUTH PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND WILL ENTER THE E
CARIBBEAN TODAY THEN MOVE TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FRI
AND THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND. THIRD
TROPICAL WAVE WELL E OF THE AREA WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N
ATLC WATERS BY FRI...THROUGH THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER
THE WEEKEND...AND ENTER THE W CARIBBEAN MON.
Any chance for something to spin up from it ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1027. IKE
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Morning Ike. What about the wave around 78W. Looks to have some spin to it and moving WNW. Decent convection too. IMO even though 96L never had a LLC in the Caribbean still looked a whole lot better than it does right now.


Looks headed across the Yucatan....

SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 AM EDT THU JUL 08 2010

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 78W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS
THE SOUTH PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND WILL ENTER THE E
CARIBBEAN TODAY THEN MOVE TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FRI
AND THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND. THIRD
TROPICAL WAVE WELL E OF THE AREA WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N
ATLC WATERS BY FRI...THROUGH THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER
THE WEEKEND...AND ENTER THE W CARIBBEAN MON.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
is it just me or is this thing not slowing down like the nhc predicted?
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 203
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:


Possible STD trying to form


24 Hr Surface forecast
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Berryfine1:

Thanks!!! I live in Port Isabel, TX and when I woke to see two systems, I was about to go back to bed and give up. We really can't take much more water and dune erosion on the island.
lol well hopefully its just a TD or to be worst case with this system a weak TS based on current progression however as we both kno this could change.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:
what is this..


Possible STD trying to form
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


Based on the ECMWF that should continue west through the Caribbean with not much development...Link

Looks like the USA remains protected through the 18th of July according to the latest ECMWF run.
Morning Ike. What about the wave around 78W. Looks to have some spin to it and moving WNW. Decent convection too. IMO even though 96L never had a LLC in the Caribbean still looked a whole lot better than it does right now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1020. IKE
Looks to my 52 year-old eyes this will be on shore/inland by noon at the latest.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Recon is on the way

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
They made that a depression... It's gonna be a long season.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting caribbeantracker01:
nope it just have not been removed as yet anytime a system was named it takes a while to get down the invest map thats all its all the same system

Thanks!!! I live in Port Isabel, TX and when I woke to see two systems, I was about to go back to bed and give up. We really can't take much more water and dune erosion on the island.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1015. IKE
Quoting caribbeantracker01:
hey ike wats your take on the waves near the islands??


Based on the ECMWF that should continue west through the Caribbean with not much development...Link

Looks like the USA remains protected through the 18th of July according to the latest ECMWF run.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Berryfine1:
I'm a lurker here, just looking for good and current information. Can anyone explain why 96L is still on the map? Did it not convert into TD2? So now we have TWO systems heading directly for SPI?
nope it just have not been removed as yet anytime a system was named it takes a while to get down the invest map thats all its all the same system
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1013. WxLogic
Good morning,

So we have TD#2... Good things it doesn't have enough time to organize. It should have ~12 to 13hrs on water before land fall somewhere around the Brownsville, TX area. Definitely can reach TS strength once it reaches the warmer shelf waters of the western Gulf. I don't expect it to have more than 45MPH.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm a lurker here, just looking for good and current information. Can anyone explain why 96L is still on the map? Did it not convert into TD2? So now we have TWO systems heading directly for SPI?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thirty five miles south of San Antonio...over 22 inches of rain in June...guess we are in for another soaking!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


LOL.
hey ike wats your take on the waves near the islands??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
95L looked better than this poor excuse for a TD.... can't wait for recon to get into it so they can downgrade it. Have a great day :
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1007. IKE
Quoting severstorm:
Morning to all, Ike you can cancel the eye doctors app. today you are seeing just find. LOL


LOL.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Morning to all, Ike you can cancel the eye doctors app. today you are seeing just find. LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
hey anyone notice the waves in the central atlantic?????????
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
blowing up.Give this 24 hours and it would be hurricane.But it seems there will be not enough time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

It is looking a wee bit healthier....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hmmm... looks like we have a new WPac invest, 93L.... wasn't there last night.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
999. IKE
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Storm, a lot of pple were supporting the premise that 96L didn't strengthen quickly after crossing the Yucatan because of the cooler waters left by Alex. What's your take on that?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Latest entry in the criticize NHC contest



Click on image to view original size in a new window



Nice. First time in a while Ascat has caught the whole thing... really miss Quikscat...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hellooooo.... ello...llo...lo...o.....

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Latest entry in the criticize NHC contest



Click on image to view original size in a new window



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ansioso Canglialoso... LOL

OK, I'm quitting with the Canglioso jokes... but it's still weird to have AVILA coming off as the sane, conservative "wiser" head.... lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting texwarhawk:
theres a nice looking wave south of jamaca north of columbia- its a little south but moving north. Posibly somthing to look at imo

Isn't this the same Twave that was part of 96L and the Yellow Circles this weekend? Looks like it's trying to jumpstart a solo career...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1041 - 991

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.