Invest 96L: Organizing in the Gulf

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:17 AM GMT on July 08, 2010

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Hi everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff while he's on vacation.

Invest 96L appears to be in the process of developing into a tropical cyclone. The strength and extent of it's thunderstorms is much improved from yesterday (I used CIMMS tropical storm page for my analysis). It's under an upper-level anticyclone which promotes development because it efficiently removes "exhaust" from the thunderstorms. Shear is relatively low (~10 knots), and SST's are adequate for supporting a tropical cyclone (~28 deg. C). In the most recent Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC mentioned that research flights found that upper-level conditions were promising for storm development, so they assess the chances of 96L of becoming a tropical cyclone at 80%. My take is that 96L has an 80% chance of becoming TD #2, and about a 40% chance of being named Bonnie. My reasoning is that 96L has about 24 hours to intensify before interactions with land start interfering with intensification processes. Also, model intensity forecasts are not very supportive of 96L attaining tropical storm force winds. The model track forecast aids have 96L's center of circulation making landfall somewhere between Brownsville and Corpus Christi.

Impacts
The 12Z operational GFS, HWRF, NOGAPS, and 18Z NAM tell a similar story about the surface winds. Near tropical-storm force winds affect the Texas coast from Corpus Christi to Matagorda Bay. A broad area of 30+ mph winds also affects the Deepwater Horizon oil spill recovery efforts. The 12Z Canadian global model downplays the wind strengths, and the 12Z parallel GFS fails to develop any significant surface wind (> 20 mph). That said, I believe that 96L's greatest impact will be in the form of rain.

The Rio Grande from Del Rio to Laredo is either at major flood stage or is forecast to reach major flood stage in the next 24 hours. This is due to Alex and the moisture he brought to the high terrain of northern Mexico. Nearly all of the forecast models I've looked at forecast 2-3 inches of rain over the Rio Grande Valley in the next 5 days. That will only encourage more flooding. The main forecast problem is how much rain will fall along the Gulf Coast. The parallel GFS and HWRF suggest that 4.5 to 6.5 inches of rain will fall in the Galveston/Houston area in the next 5 days. In my opinion, people living in this area should be prepared for flooding.


Fig. 1. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z parallel GFS. Operational GFS


Fig. 2. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z HWRF.


Fig. 3. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z Canadian global model. NOGAPS

Emergency Preparations
People living along the Gulf coast from south of the Rio Grande to the Texas/Louisiana border should review their emergency preparations (hurricane preparations also make for good flood preparations). Jeff has put together a guide to hurricane preparedness with plenty of links for more information.

Next Update
If 96L becomes TD2 or Bonnie, I'll have an update tonight. Shaun Tanner may post something in the morning if that's when the naming occurs. Otherwise, I'll post a tropical update tomorrow afternoon.

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1091. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting ryang:
Recon finding winds close to 35kts....depends if the NHC wants to upgrade it or not


I agree.. it's minimal at best. Also, where the surface winds were TS for a few minutes flight level was less.
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Quoting Skyepony:
AF303 just got to TD2 & is finding TS force winds..

Last night it looked organized but now it looks more like a low with gale force winds. I can't believe they will upgrade it even with the winds..
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Quoting Conus:
How are ya, Miami?
Doing good actually. I have screamed a couple times at my laptop in the past few hours though...
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I am surprised there is no mention of the CATL waves this AM as all attention is on TD2.
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1087. calder
Time: 11:40:30Z
Coordinates: 26.1167N 95.55W
Acft. Static Air Press: 921.3 mb (~ 27.21 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 793 meters (~ 2,602 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1009.1 mb (~ 29.80 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 145° at 41 knots (From the SE at ~ 47.1 mph)
Air Temp: 20.6°C (~ 69.1°F)
Dew Pt: 14.9°C (~ 58.8°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 42 knots (~ 48.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 34 knots (~ 39.1 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr (~ 0 in/hr)

One TS barb from recon at the minute. Probs not enough to say it's a TS at the moment..
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Quoting cg2916:
Good morning! We have TD2!



Wow, worst looking TD I've ever seen.
There have been plenty of tropical depressions that have looked worse than this. Either way, it is a tropical depression because it meets all the requirements.
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Quit with the JFV references, pls. They do nothing to advance the blog and seem so specious that they are annoying the hell out of me.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21486
1084. calder
Quoting tkeith:
1064.

Any rain at all there is gonna add insult to injury. TD or TS classification dont matter much at this point...


yeh, classification doesn't mean much in this situation
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Quoting aquak9:
MH09- you beat me to it!!!!!
LOL!!
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1081. cg2916
Good morning! We have TD2!



Wow, worst looking TD I've ever seen.
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Quoting StormW:



Yes, the strength and position of the A/B high will play a part in the position of the ITCZ. I don't remember which season it was, but we had an A/B high that was a little stronger, and further south which kept the ITCZ from shifting further north for a bit.

The A/B High has also been very broad all the last month.
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1079. aquak9
MH09- you beat me to it!!!!!
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1078. ryang
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Good morning JFV.


LOL...
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1077. aquak9
zombie alert code orange
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1076. ryang
Recon finding winds close to 35kts....depends if the NHC wants to upgrade it or not
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Quoting Skyepony:
AF303 just got to TD2 & is finding TS force winds..
Yup. Should be enough for classification to Bonnie later this morning at 11 AM EDT.
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1072. 900MB
Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:
what is this..


Looks like the real interest will be off the East Coast. I would expect an invest by 11. Possible TD or TS within 24 hours. Cold front Saturday should carry it out to sea unless the front stalls.
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Quoting StormW:


Well, the high so far, for the past couple of weeks has been averaging 1028-1030mb.

Storm your thoughts on how long the high is going to be a dominant factor in the atlantic.
I know very little about models/trends etc past 2-3 weeks
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1070. tkeith
1064.

Any rain at all there is gonna add insult to injury. TD or TS classification dont matter much at this point...
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1069. Skyepony (Mod)
AF303 just got to TD2 & is finding TS force winds..
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1068. bappit
Can't get no ... CV action.
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. Other than TD 2, has anyone else noticed that the Atlantic ITCZ has actually dropped down a few degrees in latitude the last couple of weeks? Just curious as to what has caused this drop since the ITCZ normally continues to "rise" in the Summer; it was actually running at around 8-9 degress North a few weeks ago (where Alex spinned up from) but it has dropped down to around 4-5 degrees North. Anyone have an idea as to what may have caused this recent dip?.........Thanks.

The ITCZ started out moving north very fast this season. Very active as well for most of late April- May.
Normally the ITCZ follows the Ocean waters heated by the sun. Since the waters are so warm already the relative low pressure belt is staying farther south. It has made the ITCZ broader and weaker. The Columbian Low is not there to give the ITCZ a boost in the west.
The Dust from the Large if not strong Azores high is also killing convection to the north keep the rising air farther south.
The trades which feed it have been weaker as well, all that rising air comes from the NE trades.
End result weak low latitude ITCZ
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1066. IKE
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A

7:00 AM CDT Thu Jul 8
Location: 25.7�N 96.2�W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: NW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb


Brownsville is at 26.0N and 97.5W.

Current weather...

Brownsville, Texas (Airport)
Updated: 13 min 25 sec ago
Partly Cloudy
79 °F
Partly Cloudy
Humidity: 94%
Dew Point: 77 °F
Wind: 6 mph from the NW
Pressure: 29.76 in (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Pollen: 3.80 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Few 2000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 20 ft
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Update cone of uncertainty with the latest coordinates. Landfall will likely come this afternoon as a weak tropical storm (40mph).

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1064. calder
Looking like it will make landfall as a depression though if it manages to make TS it will surely be a weak one. Regardless of this, the main concern from this TD was always going to be the rain. Stay safe in northern mex and southern TX.
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Just had a rain event here in Katy, Tx...Lasted 5mins and dropped about .14 in....
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1061. IKE
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
7:00 AM CDT Thu Jul 8
Location: 25.7°N 96.2°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: NW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb


At 4am it was at...

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 95.2W


It's moved .9N and 1.0W in 3 hours. System should be making landfall in the next 3+ hours.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
the two is out.... still a 35 mph depression.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


off the coast of NC, looking mighty interesting...


GOES East Full CONUS Loop

The feature off the East Coast is definitely looking less like a ULL and more like a mid to surface level system. Between the pressure drops and the healthy convection, I give this a 50% chance of being named a Subtropical Storm, as some of the models have been hinting.
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A

7:00 AM CDT Thu Jul 8
Location: 25.7N 96.2W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: NW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
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Quoting SavannahStorm:


First light.


off the coast of NC, looking mighty interesting...

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a td... looks like a line of tstorms
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NHC is later in posting than it's usual 15minutes early.
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WOW... We could have an STS on our hands soon.



Pressure reading off the Outer Banks.
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Quoting beell:


They should hurry...


They are moving so fast that radar caught them

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Quoting StormW:



Yes, the strength and position of the A/B high will play a part in the position of the ITCZ. I don't remember which season it was, but we had an A/B high that was a little stronger, and further south which kept the ITCZ from shifting further north for a bit.


Thanks....I was just trying to figure out why the recent dip when all of guidance this year has suggested a weaker high (less sheer) and it has been dropping back down instead of rising steadily recently.
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First light.
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1047. aquak9
Quoting beell:


They should hurry...


First smile of the day award goes to Beell!!
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I am looking at 52/27 I see a spin, not much convection, but I think the entire area can get going in time, and will. There is a lot of moisture ahead that it will eventually reach; just my opinion.
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1044. calder
Quoting JamaicaBeach:
Tides are running about 4 to 4.5' right now on the west end of Galveston Island and the winds are pretty gusty.

We are flooded in at the moment by high tide over the road to our house.


stay safe
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Tides are running about 4 to 4.5' right now on the west end of Galveston Island and the winds are pretty gusty.

We are flooded in at the moment by high tide over the road to our house.
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1042. IKE
Quoting sailingallover:

Death by hypothermia..

You did cancel that eye doctors appointment and pack a few crows on dry ice for shipping didn't you???


Yeah....LOL!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858




Surface pressures remain depressed in the area of the ULL/ Bahama wave feature. Seems a little moist to be just on the upper levels. . It may be working its way downward
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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