Invest 96L: Organizing in the Gulf

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:17 AM GMT on July 08, 2010

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Hi everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff while he's on vacation.

Invest 96L appears to be in the process of developing into a tropical cyclone. The strength and extent of it's thunderstorms is much improved from yesterday (I used CIMMS tropical storm page for my analysis). It's under an upper-level anticyclone which promotes development because it efficiently removes "exhaust" from the thunderstorms. Shear is relatively low (~10 knots), and SST's are adequate for supporting a tropical cyclone (~28 deg. C). In the most recent Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC mentioned that research flights found that upper-level conditions were promising for storm development, so they assess the chances of 96L of becoming a tropical cyclone at 80%. My take is that 96L has an 80% chance of becoming TD #2, and about a 40% chance of being named Bonnie. My reasoning is that 96L has about 24 hours to intensify before interactions with land start interfering with intensification processes. Also, model intensity forecasts are not very supportive of 96L attaining tropical storm force winds. The model track forecast aids have 96L's center of circulation making landfall somewhere between Brownsville and Corpus Christi.

Impacts
The 12Z operational GFS, HWRF, NOGAPS, and 18Z NAM tell a similar story about the surface winds. Near tropical-storm force winds affect the Texas coast from Corpus Christi to Matagorda Bay. A broad area of 30+ mph winds also affects the Deepwater Horizon oil spill recovery efforts. The 12Z Canadian global model downplays the wind strengths, and the 12Z parallel GFS fails to develop any significant surface wind (> 20 mph). That said, I believe that 96L's greatest impact will be in the form of rain.

The Rio Grande from Del Rio to Laredo is either at major flood stage or is forecast to reach major flood stage in the next 24 hours. This is due to Alex and the moisture he brought to the high terrain of northern Mexico. Nearly all of the forecast models I've looked at forecast 2-3 inches of rain over the Rio Grande Valley in the next 5 days. That will only encourage more flooding. The main forecast problem is how much rain will fall along the Gulf Coast. The parallel GFS and HWRF suggest that 4.5 to 6.5 inches of rain will fall in the Galveston/Houston area in the next 5 days. In my opinion, people living in this area should be prepared for flooding.


Fig. 1. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z parallel GFS. Operational GFS


Fig. 2. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z HWRF.


Fig. 3. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z Canadian global model. NOGAPS

Emergency Preparations
People living along the Gulf coast from south of the Rio Grande to the Texas/Louisiana border should review their emergency preparations (hurricane preparations also make for good flood preparations). Jeff has put together a guide to hurricane preparedness with plenty of links for more information.

Next Update
If 96L becomes TD2 or Bonnie, I'll have an update tonight. Shaun Tanner may post something in the morning if that's when the naming occurs. Otherwise, I'll post a tropical update tomorrow afternoon.

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Quoting extreme236:


Raw T-numbers are objective numbers that the ADT measured the organization to be at on that cycle. These can often be much higher or lower than the Current Intensity (CI) number. But numerous higher raw T-numbers will increase that CI overtime if they persist.

Thank you very much for your explanation.
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Quoting extreme236:
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 JUL 2010 Time : 111500 UTC
Lat : 25:04:41 N Lon : 95:34:29 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.3 /1006.6mb/ 33.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.3 2.6 3.9


Wow, raw T#'s just under hurricane status? lol
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Quoting Bobbyweather:

Hi. I've been on here for awhile, but I still don't know what Raw T#'s are. Can you explain it, please?


Raw T-numbers are objective numbers that the ADT measured the organization to be at on that cycle. These can often be much higher or lower than the Current Intensity (CI) number. But numerous higher raw T-numbers will increase that CI overtime if they persist.
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1138. TxKeef
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
How often does radar pick up the recon plane ?




Is that a line of rain that appears to be following along side it? Hmmm...
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All the TS force winds were found around the northern portion of the convection of TD2.
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Quoting IKE:


Just looking at that radar...I don't see any prolonged heavy rain on there....so far.


I hope not. We really don't need it right now. In the last 24 hours I've had 3 inches here at the house ( on top of last week's 10). But they keep saying we will get more rain in the heat of the day. But at least it's keeping it cool and in the 80's!!! :D
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Found 4 readings of TS force winds from the Recon one was up to 40 knots.
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Quoting extreme236:
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 JUL 2010 Time : 111500 UTC
Lat : 25:04:41 N Lon : 95:34:29 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.3 /1006.6mb/ 33.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.3 2.6 3.9

Hi. I've been on here for awhile, but I still don't know what Raw T#'s are. Can you explain it, please?
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1131. FLdewey
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
How often does radar pick up the recon plane ?


Always... but usually the software filters it out as clutter.
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1130. IKE
They'll have to go over land to find west winds.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1129. calder
Quoting Skyepony:


SFMR

They've found some since where the flight winds were higher at the time. If it persists & improves til next advisory, I bet they'll call it. Looks like they got in there right after the TWO.


Btw, are you from Skye in scotland?
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1128. IKE
Quoting txalwaysprepared:
Good Morning!


Just looking at that radar...I don't see any prolonged heavy rain on there....so far.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 JUL 2010 Time : 111500 UTC
Lat : 25:04:41 N Lon : 95:34:29 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.3 /1006.6mb/ 33.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.3 2.6 3.9
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1126. GCAT
Here we go again, just like last week another
6+ inches of rain in the Galveston area to end the week. I hope this is not a developing trend for the western Gulf?
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Quoting apocalyps:
With this northern path 96L is on his way to become hurricane.Amazing.


ummmmmm
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How often does radar pick up the recon plane ?


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1123. ryang
Recon just found some NNW winds.....
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Quoting extreme236:


More central convection than last night lol


;P
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With this northern path 96L is on his way to become hurricane.Amazing.
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Several indications of TS winds per Recon.
Should be enough to upgrade to Bonnie.

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Quoting FLdewey:
Looking at the Color Infrared Loop she's a raggedy sad little system.


More central convection than last night lol
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1117. calder
Quoting wfyweather:
is it just me or was it a bogus call to make this td 2.


Maybe a little early, seeing as it looks like the decision to not name 95L was made as there was no sustained convection. On the other hand, the ULL conditions became really very favourable last night and, with the SST's and shear also remaining conducive for development, you could easily argue the NHC's case, even though convection waned during the night.
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TropicalDepressionTwo was^heading toward RioHondo,Texas landfall in 3&1/2 hours.
(Straightline^projection using its last 2 positions. Take with HUGE grain of salt)

Copy&paste 23.9N93.9W, 24.3N94.5W, 24.8N95.2W-25.7N96.2W, 25.7N96.2W-26.9N97.6W, TAM, MOB, PBI, SAL, 28.7N88.4W into the GreatCircleMapper

Shortest red line denotes the movement between last two positions. Below the map shows:
TD2 had a heading of 314.9degrees (~NorthWest) while traveling
a distance of 88miles(~141.7kilometres) over 3hours at a speed of ~29.3mph(~47.2k/h),
and was 120miles(~193.2kilometres) away from the coast in the direction of its heading.

^ Straightline projections are not forecasts of what will happen in the future,
especially not for TropicalCyclones. They aftcast what has already happened.
* DeepwaterHorizon is marked at 28.7N88.4W
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Good Morning!
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1114. FLdewey
Looking at the Color Infrared Loop she's a raggedy sad little system.
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1113. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting calder:


Does that make a difference since it's a straight extrapolation for surface level winds? Or do the surface winds come from dropsondes?


SFMR

They've found some since where the flight winds were higher at the time. If it persists & improves til next advisory, I bet they'll call it. Looks like they got in there right after the TWO.
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is it just me or was it a bogus call to make this td 2.
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sure is getting very very blobby in the central atlantic.
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1110. IKE
Lowest pressure...1007.4 mb
(~ 29.75 inHg)...at 24.8N and 97.1W...this system is making landfall within an hour...to 90 minutes.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1109. calder
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
They are finding 40Kt winds but can not close off a center so it's up to them to waste a perfectly good name like Bonnie on this rain maker


No 40kt surface winds have been found. Only one 34kt wind (39.1mph) has been found.
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Moving north not likely to hit land today.
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1107. cg2916
Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:


Looks like pre-Andrea.
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1105. IKE
Brownsville, Texas (Airport)
Updated: 22 min 21 sec ago
Scattered Clouds
81 °F
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 94%
Dew Point: 79 °F
Wind: 6 mph from the NW
Pressure: 29.76 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 88 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Pollen: 3.80 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Few 400 ft
Scattered Clouds 2000 ft
Scattered Clouds 3000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 20 ft
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
They are finding 40Kt SFMR winds but can not close off a center so it's up to them to waste a perfectly good name like Bonnie on this rain maker
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Tropical Update w/ Video
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I guess the only difference between this system and 95L was the frontal discussion. Check out the radar loops, they are nearly identical.
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1101. Skyepony (Mod)
See where recon dove in TD2 at less than 1000' then pulled up to 2600'? Way to start a day.
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Quoting cg2916:
Good morning! We have TD2!



Wow, worst looking TD I've ever seen.

Yep and it is a TD...just like 95L...ha ha.

Getting some good bands into Houston...
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1099. IKE
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1098. calder
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:


The advisory was issued in CDT so it should be kept in that time zone and not changed to match where you live


Pedantic.com
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1097. SLU
I honestly hope this rather shabby looking disturbance isn't upgraded to a TS unless there is a drastic improvement in organization because 95L which struck Louisiana a couple days ago had a much better structure and also evidence of TS force winds but it wasn't even granted TD status. There needs to be greater consistency so that we can get a true indication of the overall level of activity when the season ends. A system should not be named or numbered on the grounds that it is a rainfall threat because all tropical disturbances are also rainfall threats as long as they are close to land.

Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5364
Good Morning, late getting up it's my vacation.

Is the rain from TD2 going to continue to move inland NW and dissipate, or will it pull north and then northeast and drench all the places that are already well saturated?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yup. Should be enough for classification to Bonnie later this morning at 11 AM EDT.


The advisory was issued in CDT so it should be kept in that time zone and not changed to match where you live
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1094. calder
Quoting Skyepony:


I agree.. it's minimal at best. Also, where the surface winds were TS for a few minutes flight level was less.

Does that make a difference since it's a straight extrapolation for surface level winds? Or do the surface winds come from dropsondes?
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1093. IKE
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Be back later...
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1091. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting ryang:
Recon finding winds close to 35kts....depends if the NHC wants to upgrade it or not


I agree.. it's minimal at best. Also, where the surface winds were TS for a few minutes flight level was less.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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