Invest 96L: Organizing in the Gulf

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:17 AM GMT on July 08, 2010

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Hi everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff while he's on vacation.

Invest 96L appears to be in the process of developing into a tropical cyclone. The strength and extent of it's thunderstorms is much improved from yesterday (I used CIMMS tropical storm page for my analysis). It's under an upper-level anticyclone which promotes development because it efficiently removes "exhaust" from the thunderstorms. Shear is relatively low (~10 knots), and SST's are adequate for supporting a tropical cyclone (~28 deg. C). In the most recent Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC mentioned that research flights found that upper-level conditions were promising for storm development, so they assess the chances of 96L of becoming a tropical cyclone at 80%. My take is that 96L has an 80% chance of becoming TD #2, and about a 40% chance of being named Bonnie. My reasoning is that 96L has about 24 hours to intensify before interactions with land start interfering with intensification processes. Also, model intensity forecasts are not very supportive of 96L attaining tropical storm force winds. The model track forecast aids have 96L's center of circulation making landfall somewhere between Brownsville and Corpus Christi.

Impacts
The 12Z operational GFS, HWRF, NOGAPS, and 18Z NAM tell a similar story about the surface winds. Near tropical-storm force winds affect the Texas coast from Corpus Christi to Matagorda Bay. A broad area of 30+ mph winds also affects the Deepwater Horizon oil spill recovery efforts. The 12Z Canadian global model downplays the wind strengths, and the 12Z parallel GFS fails to develop any significant surface wind (> 20 mph). That said, I believe that 96L's greatest impact will be in the form of rain.

The Rio Grande from Del Rio to Laredo is either at major flood stage or is forecast to reach major flood stage in the next 24 hours. This is due to Alex and the moisture he brought to the high terrain of northern Mexico. Nearly all of the forecast models I've looked at forecast 2-3 inches of rain over the Rio Grande Valley in the next 5 days. That will only encourage more flooding. The main forecast problem is how much rain will fall along the Gulf Coast. The parallel GFS and HWRF suggest that 4.5 to 6.5 inches of rain will fall in the Galveston/Houston area in the next 5 days. In my opinion, people living in this area should be prepared for flooding.


Fig. 1. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z parallel GFS. Operational GFS


Fig. 2. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z HWRF.


Fig. 3. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z Canadian global model. NOGAPS

Emergency Preparations
People living along the Gulf coast from south of the Rio Grande to the Texas/Louisiana border should review their emergency preparations (hurricane preparations also make for good flood preparations). Jeff has put together a guide to hurricane preparedness with plenty of links for more information.

Next Update
If 96L becomes TD2 or Bonnie, I'll have an update tonight. Shaun Tanner may post something in the morning if that's when the naming occurs. Otherwise, I'll post a tropical update tomorrow afternoon.

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Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:


I didn't say that I didn't respect him. Heck he could kick my butt LOL
That's true, LOL.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1290. angiest
Quoting aquak9:
dewey- give me 2 hours on any beach from St.Aug to fernandina- I can find a tarball.

I'm with you. Fear-mongering.


I'm pretty sure I've seen tarballs on Galveston before. Granted, ours were confirmed to be from DWH, but tarballs are a wee bit different from a layer of crude floating in on the waves.

According to the news, the collected 2 gallons of tarballs on and near Galveston.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Joe Bastardi is a meteorologist unlike me, you, and a lot on this blog. Respect him.


I didn't say that I didn't respect him. Heck he could kick my butt LOL
Member Since: January 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529
1288. MahFL
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Joe Bastardi is a meteorologist unlike me, you, and a lot on this blog. Respect him.


JB works for a profit making company, he sometimes exagerates.......
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
12z is 8AM EDT.


I know. But it doesn't actually come out at 8AM
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Quoting aquak9:
tests still out on cocoa beach tar balls

Link


You know what it doesnt even matter. People believe what they want even if the truth stares them in the face.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
On a off topic note.. the oil spill has now reached the Atlantic. Tar balls reported in Cape Canaveral.

From what i heard they are from a shrimp boat that sank last week.
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
12Z ATCF fix out

AL, 02, 2010070812, , BEST, 0, 254N, 962W, 30, 1006, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 180, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, TWO, D,

Hmm, they may not upgrade it afterall, although I think they should and will.
12z is 8AM EDT. Even the coordinates on it are wrong compared to the 8AM EDT advisory.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
12Z ATCF fix out

AL, 02, 2010070812, , BEST, 0, 254N, 962W, 30, 1006, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 180, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, TWO, D,

Hmm, they may not upgrade it afterall, although I think they should and will.
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Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
JB always tells you that at least 100 Different things can happen so he has to be right
Joe Bastardi is a meteorologist unlike me, you, and a lot on this blog. Respect him.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194


AOI
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1279. aquak9
dewey- give me 2 hours on any beach from St.Aug to fernandina- I can find a tarball.

I'm with you. Fear-mongering.
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JB always tells you that at least 100 Different things can happen so he has to be right
Member Since: January 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529
Quoting watchingnva:


umm, with recon on google earth he has a valid point....

Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 329° at 7 knots (From the NNW at ~ 8.0 mph

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
That would be the closest to a west wind they found on the first circle around...
I don't understand what you're trying to tell me.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
anybody other than Reed kind of shocked that the east coast system doesn't at least have a little yellow circle on it ?

Nope.. because if anything does develop it will go out to sea, no models had it developing yesterday and the upper level circulation will probably keep anything purely tropical from developing...
But it would be really cool to see two storms spinning around each other for a couple days...
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1273. aquak9
tests still out on cocoa beach tar balls

Link
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my ppoint exactly doug jb is quite a forecaster but these poeple on this blog have no problem critisizing him.At least my tax dollars dont pay his salary lol
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Quoting watchingnva:


you guys trying to pitch this thing as a ts and wasting a name is one thing...trying to convince someone its "just under" hurricane strength...good luck...


What? Do you even know what a raw T# is? good luck....
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Quoting Chicklit:
Dr. Masters is soooo smart. He said in the blog he wrote just before he left that we may see something develop off the east conus.


JB said it a week ago. No fooling.
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Off the east coast.
Visible sat loops we have two features.
The Low of the NC Coast which is while upper level ciculation makes it apper to be sub tropical the lower lever circulation off the NC/VA line looks like it is trying to spin up a tighter core.

If you look at the South East Corner 28N,67W you will see another organizing circulation with some good convection still firing being dragged NE by the upper level circulation.
I have to admit this is way more interesting than the Gulf..
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1267. Makoto1
I'm beginning to think I was wrong... Maybe there really isn't a closed low here. Up to 26N and still no west wind.
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Dr. Masters is soooo smart. He said in the blog he wrote just before he left that we may see something develop off the east conus.
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1264. aquak9
Quoting heavyweatherwatcher:
Analysis of the Cocoa Beach tarballs has RULED OUT the BP spill... the tarballs are from an unidentified source...


link please
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
If the NHC knew that the circulation was still open they would have not upgraded it to a tropical depression. Just take a look at the ASCAT from yesterday, clearly a closed low.

Ughhhhh, I hate that I'm not on my main computer (No Google Earth).


umm, with recon on google earth he has a valid point....

Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 329° at 7 knots (From the NNW at ~ 8.0 mph

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
That would be the closest to a west wind they found on the first circle around...
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anybody other than Reed kind of shocked that the east coast system doesn't at least have a little yellow circle on it ?
Member Since: January 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529
Quoting FLdewey:


That is NOT TRUE. Those tar balls are believed to be from a sunken shrimp boat. We've had tar balls on the East coast long before BP screwed up. The oil spill has not reached the Atlantic.


We dont know if they are or they arent, they are testing them so you are both wrong.
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Analysis of the Cocoa Beach tarballs has RULED OUT the BP spill... the tarballs are from an unidentified source...
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Quoting watchingnva:


you guys trying to pitch this thing as a ts and wasting a name is one thing...trying to convince someone its "just under" hurricane strength...good luck...
I don't think anyone said this was "just under" hurricane strength. In the post you quoted it clearly says he is talking about raw T#.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1257. aquak9
Quoting CybrTeddy:
On a off topic note.. the oil spill has now reached the Atlantic. Tar balls reported in Cape Canaveral.


analysis has not yet confirmed the source
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Quoting vortextrance:
Port Isabel buoy has NNW winds. Can't find anything south of their with due west winds.


There is a good reason for that.... there are none
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I see a center of circulation on the BRO long range radar linked below

Link
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Good morning, sorry to see the area of Tex Mex already hit by Alex is getting more rain but glad the system has remained relatively weak.
Here's the 8 a.m. Discussion anyway on the stuff going on in the Western Atlantic.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...A DEEP LAYERED LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA SPINNING NEAR 34N72W.

THIS SYSTEM SUPPORTS A SURFACE LOW NE OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 27N70W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS EAST OF THE LOW CENTER TO NEAR 28N62W.

THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE W ATLC FROM 21N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 62W AND 72W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO OVER THE FAR W ATLANTIC ALONG 78W FROM 23N TO 28N PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAHAMAS W OF 75W.

DIFFLUENCE FLOW IN THE FAR UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS FURTHER SUPPORTING THE OVERALL TROUGHING IN THIS REGION.
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Wow, raw T#'s just under hurricane status? lol


you guys trying to pitch this thing as a ts and wasting a name is one thing...trying to convince someone its "just under" hurricane strength...good luck...
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AMEN DOUG.The people who get upset when someone critisizes the nhc need to take a look in the mirror. They are the same ones that constantly critisize the federal gov justified or not.Hello the nhc is a goverment agency thier fair game just like any other gov agency.the only ones ill never critisize is the hhs they put thier life on the line and report back what they find not designate it. these guys at the nhc are well educated and highly paid. they sit and look at computers and models all day .I have a mba in business and i sure as hell make plenty of mistakes in my field, thing is people who correct me do not have mba's and lot of times are right in thier critisism.So in closing they are paid by us the american taxpayer so yes they are fair game .Have a blessed day.
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Port Isabel buoy has NNW winds. Can't find anything south of their with due west winds.
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1249. angiest
Regarding the ragged appearance of TD2 on radar, see if you can find the TD in this picture:



The next day it had turned into this:



This was 1998's Tropical Storm Charley, which was the first tropical cyclone I remember experiencing in Houston.
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Lets see.. 1. I don't know why you're sorry.
2. It is true. 3. You got that right. 4. Objective data is all too often at odds with there own discussions.


I often do that when I make posts when I disagree I don't know why its just a habit lol. Yes objective data tends to be at odds sometimes, but I've rarely seen instances where the data is way off base from what the NHC said. Their reasoning last night for naming this system isn't much different than what you would see on many other TD's.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234




Link
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On a off topic note.. the oil spill has now reached the Atlantic. Tar balls reported in Cape Canaveral.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24575
Quoting extreme236:


I'm sorry, but even if this is true, we just simply aren't the experts. Criticizing the gets us nowhere and quite frankly doesn't matter. They have reasoning that is capable of supporting their decisions either way.



Lets see.. 1. I don't know why you're sorry.
2. It is true. 3. You got that right. 4. Objective data is all too often at odds with their own discussions.
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Quoting calder:


didnt have the low centre fix on my image, thought it was closer to shore


On the first run. they got readings around 1008... not what I would call a major or even minor anything.
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1242. calder
Quoting Orcasystems:


I don't think there is anything for them to really find?



AOI


didnt have the low centre fix on my image, thought it was closer to shore
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1233 PensacolaDoug "The TPC (NHC) has been remarkably inconsistent with their designation practices for several years now."

Certain tropical cyclones have been remarkably inconsistent (with those experienced previously) during the past several years.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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