Invest 96L: Organizing in the Gulf

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:17 AM GMT on July 08, 2010

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Hi everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff while he's on vacation.

Invest 96L appears to be in the process of developing into a tropical cyclone. The strength and extent of it's thunderstorms is much improved from yesterday (I used CIMMS tropical storm page for my analysis). It's under an upper-level anticyclone which promotes development because it efficiently removes "exhaust" from the thunderstorms. Shear is relatively low (~10 knots), and SST's are adequate for supporting a tropical cyclone (~28 deg. C). In the most recent Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC mentioned that research flights found that upper-level conditions were promising for storm development, so they assess the chances of 96L of becoming a tropical cyclone at 80%. My take is that 96L has an 80% chance of becoming TD #2, and about a 40% chance of being named Bonnie. My reasoning is that 96L has about 24 hours to intensify before interactions with land start interfering with intensification processes. Also, model intensity forecasts are not very supportive of 96L attaining tropical storm force winds. The model track forecast aids have 96L's center of circulation making landfall somewhere between Brownsville and Corpus Christi.

Impacts
The 12Z operational GFS, HWRF, NOGAPS, and 18Z NAM tell a similar story about the surface winds. Near tropical-storm force winds affect the Texas coast from Corpus Christi to Matagorda Bay. A broad area of 30+ mph winds also affects the Deepwater Horizon oil spill recovery efforts. The 12Z Canadian global model downplays the wind strengths, and the 12Z parallel GFS fails to develop any significant surface wind (> 20 mph). That said, I believe that 96L's greatest impact will be in the form of rain.

The Rio Grande from Del Rio to Laredo is either at major flood stage or is forecast to reach major flood stage in the next 24 hours. This is due to Alex and the moisture he brought to the high terrain of northern Mexico. Nearly all of the forecast models I've looked at forecast 2-3 inches of rain over the Rio Grande Valley in the next 5 days. That will only encourage more flooding. The main forecast problem is how much rain will fall along the Gulf Coast. The parallel GFS and HWRF suggest that 4.5 to 6.5 inches of rain will fall in the Galveston/Houston area in the next 5 days. In my opinion, people living in this area should be prepared for flooding.


Fig. 1. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z parallel GFS. Operational GFS


Fig. 2. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z HWRF.


Fig. 3. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z Canadian global model. NOGAPS

Emergency Preparations
People living along the Gulf coast from south of the Rio Grande to the Texas/Louisiana border should review their emergency preparations (hurricane preparations also make for good flood preparations). Jeff has put together a guide to hurricane preparedness with plenty of links for more information.

Next Update
If 96L becomes TD2 or Bonnie, I'll have an update tonight. Shaun Tanner may post something in the morning if that's when the naming occurs. Otherwise, I'll post a tropical update tomorrow afternoon.

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Quoting miguel617:
Mexican media (newspapers and TV) are referring to TD2 as Bonnie. I had an argument with my wife last night and with one of my coworkers this morning because I told them it did not have a name yet. They both saw it on TV as Bonnie. It will be be funny when the real Bonnie pops up in the next couple of weeks.
lmao!!...i saw them referring to it as Bonnie on some national show this morning...and just laughed...
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Here is the link that states neither the sunken shrimp boat NOR the BP spill are responsible for the Cocoa Beach tarballs...

http://www.floridatoday.com/article/20100708/NEWS01/7080319/1086/Crews+continue+collecting+tar+ball s+in+Brevard
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1338. MahFL
If the new center is south, it would have longer over water as it crosses that barrier island into the Bay of Madre ?
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Mexican media (newspapers and TV) are referring to TD2 as Bonnie. I had an argument with my wife last night and with one of my coworkers this morning because I told them it did not have a name yet. They both saw it on TV as Bonnie. It will be be funny when the real Bonnie pops up in the next couple of weeks.
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Quoting MahFL:
Still seems TD2 has multiple centers vying for dominence......

looks that way
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Quoting Waltanater:
Does anyone know where I can dl a KML or KMZ file for Google Earth on Storm Tracking (one that INCLUDES the "Cone of Uncertainty?") Last year they had one, but this year it only has a "line" for the projected path. Really need one for work purposes.


I think you are out of luck finding that. Your best bet is to use one of the GIS files from NHC and convert it to KML.
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Well first of all I lol'd sarcastically at the raw T# in my post, definitely not trying to pitch it to anyone, and second of all extreme explained clearly in one of his posts not too far after mine what a raw T# was and how it can be overblown many times, although if persistent it could raise the overall CI#. But I'm not trying to get involved in an argument here, I just wanted to explain how we were doing the opposite of selling this thing off as just under a hurricane. Just wanted to make things clearer. :)


why would i want to argue on a weather blog...i respect your opinion, and id hope youd respect mine even though we disagree sometimes...lol...

so what do you think of the windshift now right off the texas coast....?
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1333. calder
Quoting Drakoen:


Interesting that it is not marked as suspect


There have been loads of values that looked suspect today
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TD2 looking a bit more like an actual TD with a new blow up of convection to the northwest of the center, but time is running out for TS Bonnie to be named.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
1331. calder
Quoting ryang:
NW winds found and 44 knots at the surface....


Just don't believe that value can be valid looking at the corresponding flight level winds
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1330. Drakoen
Quoting ryang:
NW winds found and 44 knots at the surface....


Interesting that it is not marked as suspect
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Quoting Drakoen:
Seems as though TD2 is just off the coast of southern Texas according to the recon.


lmao...i was wondering who all was watching recon and saw the wind shift just to the ne of south padre...this thing is so disorganized...lol
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1328. MahFL
Still seems TD2 has multiple centers vying for dominence......
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Looking at the area off the east coast I'd say the chances of something Tropical developing are way better than is thought. The highest winds are right next to the COC. Lots of warm water from the GS.
It's definitely a Low.
Sub tropical development 80%
Tropical Development 30%
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Does anyone know where I can dl a KML or KMZ file for Google Earth on Storm Tracking (one that INCLUDES the "Cone of Uncertainty?") Last year they had one, but this year it only has a "line" for the projected path. Really need one for work purposes.
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1325. Squid28
Quoting angiest:


I'm pretty sure I've seen tarballs on Galveston before. Granted, ours were confirmed to be from DWH, but tarballs are a wee bit different from a layer of crude floating in on the waves.

According to the news, the collected 2 gallons of tarballs on and near Galveston.


Angie,
I think they are up to like 18 gallons of tarballs now. Also they did find crude slicks over on Mcfaddin beach by Port Arthur yesterday.

McFaddin beach oil

Beaumont Paper
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Quoting Jeff9641:
Some of these Tarballs I measured were 5" in diameter and very hard.


Could be from natural seepage a not related to the BP spill or a ship sinking
Member Since: January 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529
Quoting watchingnva:


aww, apparently i hurt someones feelings...lol...i do, and when it comes to td strength...their a joke...that of course is my opinion ;)


LOL your ridiculous. If you know what a raw T# is, then why did you accuse me of calling it just under a hurricane when I stated in my post that it was a RAW T#? And then when you realized you've been figured out you rely on false claims that you've hurt the other person to help your ego. *poof*
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1322. Drakoen
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 JUL 2010 Time : 124500 UTC
Lat : 25:15:11 N Lon : 95:49:29 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 /1005.0mb/ 35.0kt



Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.5 2.7 3.3

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -39.3C Cloud Region Temp : -51.9C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.67 ARC in LT GRAY

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1321. ryang
NW winds found and 44 knots at the surface....
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Quoting calder:


actually did today, just after 8


Wow lol
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1318. aquak9
DaytonaWatcher- yes, a damn shame indeed. The impacts will still be evident long after we're all dead.

Just trying to hold on to my blissful ignorance as long as I can. I wish the panhandle and northern gulf states were as lucky...
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Quoting sails1:
Low pressue off the mid atlantic coast continues to show signs of development. Cold core working down to the surface. May be classified as a depression in the next two days. Cold front mid week will not be strong enough to send it out to sea as high pressure rebuilds in the southern US. Does anyone agree with this?


It seems according to the nhc that it just might get pushed back west or swest into the "carolinas"

sorry presslord
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1316. Drakoen
Seems as though TD2 is just off the coast of southern Texas according to the recon.
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Quoting watchingnva:


my point is that a lot of people on here try to point out t#'s and the other estimated numbers...when they are almost always wrong or largely overblown...

oh, and that until i see a true west wind from recon, this thing being even a td is a joke...


Well first of all I lol'd sarcastically at the raw T# in my post, definitely not trying to pitch it to anyone, and second of all extreme explained clearly in one of his posts not too far after mine what a raw T# was and how it can be overblown many times, although if persistent it could raise the overall CI#. But I'm not trying to get involved in an argument here, I just wanted to explain how we were doing the opposite of selling this thing off as just under a hurricane. Just wanted to make things clearer. :)
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Member Since: January 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529
Quoting aquak9:
WOM- water/oil mixture, yes. Confirmed a few weeks ago, very dispersed, offa the east coast of Florida, about 100 miles out.

There is no doubt we'll see the DWH effects here soon enough.


Do you have a link for this confirmation of oil off Florida's east coast Aqua?
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1311. tkeith
Quoting aquak9:
WOM- water/oil mixture, yes. Confirmed a few weeks ago, very dispersed, offa the east coast of Florida, about 100 miles out.

There is no doubt we'll see the DWH effects here soon enough.
Sad, but unfortunatly true Aqua.
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1310. sails1
Low pressue off the mid atlantic coast continues to show signs of development. Cold core working down to the surface. May be classified as a depression in the next two days. Cold front mid week will not be strong enough to send it out to sea as high pressure rebuilds in the southern US. Does anyone agree with this?
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Is that a center trying to reform?

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Quoting aquak9:


read post 1279. We always have the occasional tarball on the east coast. And review the loop current. Miami and the Keys will get hit first. When the DWH tarballs show up down there, then it is only a matter of time before we see them further up the east coast.

Until then, enjoy the beach while you can. That's what I'm doing.
Oh i definately am, and I am NOT in the "tarballs on volusia county beaches or east coast beaches camp" but I was just saying they are still testing and we dont know for sure. What we do know is that they will be around for a long time, either from the disaster in the gulf or from some other source and that it is a damn shame.
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


What? Do you even know what a raw T# is? good luck....


aww, apparently i hurt someones feelings...lol...i do, and when it comes to td strength...their a joke...that of course is my opinion ;)
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1306. aquak9
WOM- water/oil mixture, yes. Confirmed a few weeks ago, very dispersed, offa the east coast of Florida, about 100 miles out.

There is no doubt we'll see the DWH effects here soon enough.
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I think about every wave mentioned in the 8 a.m. Discussion had a cyclonic low.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W FROM 5N TO 15N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE A NORTHERN LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM LOCATED WEST OF THE AXIS NEAR 12N22W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W FROM 5N TO 17N MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS NEAR THE WAVE AXIS EVIDENT IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY ...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N57W TO INLAND OVER EASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 5N62W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS INDICATED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY...

It's all still in the ICTZ and looks like winds aren't favorable but there is a lot going on right now to juice up the environment.
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1304. calder
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


I know. But it doesn't actually come out at 8AM


actually did today, just after 8
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Quoting Progster:
NAEFS ensemble dries out S texas from the 12th - 23rd and shifts most of the precip action to the east coast.

Link
I hope this is true, Texas will take the High Pressure system over the East right on top of us through August, this will make it hot and lower the humidity by 30 percent. All Lakes are either full or flooded so Texas will be alright with 45 days without rain.
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http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.shtml



copy paste read above
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Pretty crazy. There was a COC under all that convection yesterday off the East Coast. The Low to the north is hiding it and shearing/sucking off the convection.
They updated while I was posting!!!
Ok new ASCAT show circulation off NC as closed as well

and
Pretty crazy. There was a COC under all that convection yesterday off the East Coast. The Low to the north is hiding it and shearing/sucking off the convection.
Ok new ASCAT show circulation off NC as closed as well

and
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Joe Bastardi is a meteorologist unlike me, you, and a lot on this blog. Respect him.


I didn't say that I didn't respect him. Heck he could kick my butt LOL
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
That's true, LOL.


Then again who normally wins when a boxer meets a wrestler ?

Hardcoreweather = Boxer
JB = Wrestler
Member Since: January 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529
Quoting FLdewey:


That is NOT TRUE. Those tar balls are believed to be from a sunken shrimp boat. We've had tar balls on the East coast long before BP screwed up. The oil spill has not reached the Atlantic.


thank you for saying that...misinformation runs thick sometimes...
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I don't think anyone said this was "just under" hurricane strength. In the post you quoted it clearly says he is talking about raw T#.


my point is that a lot of people on here try to point out t#'s and the other estimated numbers...when they are almost always wrong or largely overblown...

oh, and that until i see a true west wind from recon, this thing being even a td is a joke...
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If the feds gave me a brick of gold and I sold it, you'd say taxpayer dollars were being spent on me.
JoeBastardi gets his info from the feds without paying for it, then sells it to the public.
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1293. aquak9
Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:


You know what it doesnt even matter. People believe what they want even if the truth stares them in the face.


read post 1279. We always have the occasional tarball on the east coast. And review the loop current. Miami and the Keys will get hit first. When the DWH tarballs show up down there, then it is only a matter of time before we see them further up the east coast.

Until then, enjoy the beach while you can. That's what I'm doing.
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


I know. But it doesn't actually come out at 8AM


Also this is the last before 2PM, so the 8AM is usually what they're thinking about for the 11AM advisory. Of course it's preliminary and unofficial, and it can change, but I was just throwing it out there :)
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Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:


I didn't say that I didn't respect him. Heck he could kick my butt LOL
That's true, LOL.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.