Invest 96L: Organizing in the Gulf

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:17 AM GMT on July 08, 2010

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Hi everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff while he's on vacation.

Invest 96L appears to be in the process of developing into a tropical cyclone. The strength and extent of it's thunderstorms is much improved from yesterday (I used CIMMS tropical storm page for my analysis). It's under an upper-level anticyclone which promotes development because it efficiently removes "exhaust" from the thunderstorms. Shear is relatively low (~10 knots), and SST's are adequate for supporting a tropical cyclone (~28 deg. C). In the most recent Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC mentioned that research flights found that upper-level conditions were promising for storm development, so they assess the chances of 96L of becoming a tropical cyclone at 80%. My take is that 96L has an 80% chance of becoming TD #2, and about a 40% chance of being named Bonnie. My reasoning is that 96L has about 24 hours to intensify before interactions with land start interfering with intensification processes. Also, model intensity forecasts are not very supportive of 96L attaining tropical storm force winds. The model track forecast aids have 96L's center of circulation making landfall somewhere between Brownsville and Corpus Christi.

Impacts
The 12Z operational GFS, HWRF, NOGAPS, and 18Z NAM tell a similar story about the surface winds. Near tropical-storm force winds affect the Texas coast from Corpus Christi to Matagorda Bay. A broad area of 30+ mph winds also affects the Deepwater Horizon oil spill recovery efforts. The 12Z Canadian global model downplays the wind strengths, and the 12Z parallel GFS fails to develop any significant surface wind (> 20 mph). That said, I believe that 96L's greatest impact will be in the form of rain.

The Rio Grande from Del Rio to Laredo is either at major flood stage or is forecast to reach major flood stage in the next 24 hours. This is due to Alex and the moisture he brought to the high terrain of northern Mexico. Nearly all of the forecast models I've looked at forecast 2-3 inches of rain over the Rio Grande Valley in the next 5 days. That will only encourage more flooding. The main forecast problem is how much rain will fall along the Gulf Coast. The parallel GFS and HWRF suggest that 4.5 to 6.5 inches of rain will fall in the Galveston/Houston area in the next 5 days. In my opinion, people living in this area should be prepared for flooding.


Fig. 1. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z parallel GFS. Operational GFS


Fig. 2. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z HWRF.


Fig. 3. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z Canadian global model. NOGAPS

Emergency Preparations
People living along the Gulf coast from south of the Rio Grande to the Texas/Louisiana border should review their emergency preparations (hurricane preparations also make for good flood preparations). Jeff has put together a guide to hurricane preparedness with plenty of links for more information.

Next Update
If 96L becomes TD2 or Bonnie, I'll have an update tonight. Shaun Tanner may post something in the morning if that's when the naming occurs. Otherwise, I'll post a tropical update tomorrow afternoon.

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Just over an inch of rain overnight from 96L here in Corpus Christi
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The way NHC is handling things this year we might have 30 storms and 60 Invest to work with....This i hope does not get named! There is hardly any banding at all....Zeppo..
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02L stays as a tropical depression.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21098
Quoting reedzone:
This should of been classified as TD2 at 11 a.m. rather then 11 p.m. last night. Convection is not as ragged as last night, nice small ball of convection finally forming rather then dissipating convection last night, but is it too late for Bonnie? Possibly, but we'll see what happens, it makes landfall this evening, probably before 7 p.m. I keep my percentage around 10% for TD2 to be named.

So if TD2 is named in post season, what name will it get? Bonnie???
What if we get a Hurricane next week and it's called Bonnie, will it bw renamed like all other hurricanes during the rest of the season?
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Tropical Depression 2 finally looks like a decent Tropical Depression, I expected this around this time today. Should stay as a TD but I have a 10% on it being named, ya know.. if it does those blow ups right before the landfall thing.. ;)
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7360
Might have to be downgraded to
Quoting StormW:


There's only one center, and its about 53 miles SE of Brownsville.


I disagree the center is near Port Isabel and this storm is making landfall now and will remain a TD
Member Since: January 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529
Likely the final advisory of 02L while its over water will come in in the next 30 minutes.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21098
Quoting atmoaggie:
Yep.

I wonder why they cannot use a high resolution look-up-table of bathemetry. Might just be that we haven't good enough bathemetry data to be sure it would work well enough...a not include bad data and/or exclude good data.


Plus what is the computing power of the on-board SFMR? Since it was developed in the 90s, like most government applications probably has not seen an upgrade in technology.
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1381. aquak9
Quoting pvbeachbum:
Anyone have a link confirming what Aqua said in post 1306 about an oil slick 100 miles off the east Florida coast? I have not yet found any information regarding it...


I did not say OIL SLICK. I did say, WOM. Stands for Water/Oil Mixture. NOT an oil slick. Huge difference.

really, a water/oil/dispersant mixture, extremely dilute. Loop current at least 100 miles east of us. No worries.
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1380. calder
Quoting StormW:


There's only one center, and its about 53 miles SE of Brownsville.


:)
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Quoting beell:


A very nice 200 mile long surface trough!
Bingo!

(grannies everywhere just used their potty-mouth)
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
IMO this will be the last advisory on TD2, no name.


Bonnie's gonna have to wait, maybe it will show up off the East Coast, but that to is a low chance.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7360
Quoting CybrTeddy:


There you go again.


Just stating what i see......No way this should be Bonnie....NO WAY!
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Yeah you're right 100%, I regret those posts, I wouldn't really ignore you I just wanted the argument to end as I do respect your opinion. The wind shift kinda makes me think there are 2 centers battling, but I could be wrong, hey weren't you the guy near richmond? How was that heat XD


yea, that was me...lol...got up to 105.8 here to the se of richmond near the james in prince george county...with a peak index of 112...is was miserable, and i hid inside...lol...today is only getting up to 97ish...but...

the dewpoint went from 68 yesterday to 76 today...so it feels like soup outside...lol...index is supposed to be 103-106...i have a feeling if we dont have alot of clouds this afternoon, its going to feel worse today bc of the humidity...lol...yay...
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Quoting StormW:


There's only one center, and its about 53 miles SE of Brownsville.
It still has another 1-3 hours before landfall.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21098
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


May be the affect of shoaling (shallow water) close to the coast, which the automated QC algorithm doesn't take into account.
Yep.

I wonder why they cannot use a high resolution look-up-table of bathemetry. Might just be that we haven't good enough bathemetry data to be sure it would work well enough...a not include bad data and/or exclude good data.
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IMO this will be the last advisory on TD2, no name.
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1371. RTLSNK
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1369. angiest
Quoting katroy:
Greetings... could someone tell me if Tropical Depression Two and Invest 96L are one and the same or two different systems?


Last night invest 96L was upgraded to TD2.
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Quoting TampaSpin:
NHC NHC you gotta be kidding me......this is the worst looking TD i may have ever seen "TO BE UPGRADED" WOW!



Well, it should have been classified a TD on the next update, not last night. Convection finally increasing as it leaves the cooler waters of Alex's wake. Bad timing on the NHC part, it finally looks like a decent TD to me, still doesn't cut it for Bonnie.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7360
1367. calder
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I've seen at least one almost every pass. They all seem to be in the N quadrant of TD2.


this current pass will be interesting
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Ike, if it is, then the nhc was off by 9 hours as they have landfall around 6 or 7 tonight as of their last update. I think the center is not where it appears to be on radar, which i also thinks makes no sense whatsoever, so therefore i have no idea what i think.
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1365. IKE
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Based on all the 40+mph SFMR wind reports 02L should become Bonnie at 11 AM EDT.


No west wind...sorry. Maybe they'll find it in the next 30 minutes.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1364. beell
Quoting StormW:


If you look at current radar, it's fixing to come ashore...it is making that WNW bend right now.

DOPPLER


A very nice 200 mile long surface trough!
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Still not much convection to get excited about. But, is enough to be confident that it is actually raining in a few places, unlike yesterday evening...

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Quoting TampaSpin:
NHC NHC you gotta be kidding me......this is the worst looking TD i may have ever seen "TO BE UPGRADED" WOW!



There you go again.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23850
1361. katroy
Greetings... could someone tell me if Tropical Depression Two and Invest 96L are one and the same or two different systems?
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Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11098
Based on all the 40+mph SFMR wind reports 02L should become Bonnie at 11 AM EDT.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21098
Quoting calder:


agree, but there have only been a handful of ts strength sfc winds. Might be enough to classify it right enough.


I've seen at least one almost every pass. They all seem to be in the N quadrant of TD2.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23850
Anyone have a link confirming what Aqua said in post 1306 about an oil slick 100 miles off the east Florida coast? I have not yet found any information regarding it...
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NHC NHC you gotta be kidding me......this is the worst looking TD i may have ever seen "TO BE UPGRADED" WOW!

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1354. MahFL
Quoting StormW:


If you look at current radar, it's fixing to come ashore...it is making that WNW bend right now.

DOPPLER


Why use the LR when its on short range, there is another center located south, SE of that barrier island in MX.

Link
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Quoting sails1:
Low pressue off the mid atlantic coast continues to show signs of development. Cold core working down to the surface. May be classified as a depression in the next two days. Cold front mid week will not be strong enough to send it out to sea as high pressure rebuilds in the southern US. Does anyone agree with this?

Not sure it will make depression as it is already a LOW. It will go straight to Sub Tropical maybe Tropical.
And the combination of the Front and the High will push it north and out across the North Atlantic
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AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
1351. calder
Quoting CybrTeddy:


And several that didn't. Found some earlier flight winds of 41 knots.


agree, but there have only been a handful of ts strength sfc winds. Might be enough to classify it right enough.
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1350. IKE
Quoting reedzone:
This should of been classified as TD2 at 11 a.m. rather then 11 p.m. las night. Convection is not as ragged as last night, nice small ball of convection finally forming rather then dissipating convection last night, but is it too late for Bonnie? Possibly, but we'll see what happens, it makes landfall this evening, probably before 7 p.m. I keep my percentage around 10% for TD2 to be named.


It's land-falling now.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting calder:


There have been loads of values that looked suspect today


And several that didn't. Found some earlier flight winds of 41 knots.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23850
Quoting watchingnva:


why would i want to argue on a weather blog...i respect your opinion, and id hope youd respect mine even though we disagree sometimes...lol...

so what do you think of the windshift now right off the texas coast....?


Yeah you're right 100%, I regret those posts, I wouldn't really ignore you I just wanted the argument to end as I do respect your opinion. The wind shift kinda makes me think there are 2 centers battling, but I could be wrong, hey weren't you the guy near richmond? How was that heat XD
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This should of been classified as TD2 at 11 a.m. rather then 11 p.m. last night. Convection is not as ragged as last night, nice small ball of convection finally forming rather then dissipating convection last night, but is it too late for Bonnie? Possibly, but we'll see what happens, it makes landfall this evening, probably before 7 p.m. I keep my percentage around 10% for TD2 to be named.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7360
Quoting Drakoen:


Interesting that it is not marked as suspect


May be the affect of shoaling (shallow water) close to the coast, which the automated QC algorithm doesn't take into account.
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35 knots
(~ 40.2 mph)
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23850
Quoting Chicklit:

looks that way
Looks like the center is very broad to me and any wind circulation on the south side is being offset by TD2s movement to the NW
15knots of west winds offset by 15knots westerly component of movement appears to sit still on radar.
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Good Morning all.
TD2??? gee that's what happens when i go to bed and not come online all day.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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