Invest 96L: Not Looking So Good

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:40 PM GMT on July 06, 2010

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Hi everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff while he is on vacation.

Invest 96L is currently over the Yucatan peninsula and is not looking as impressive as it did over the holiday weekend. Right now, the cloud tops are warming, which indicate that the thunderstorms are weakening. This is likely due to 96L's being ashore right now. Looking into the future, 96L's doesn't show much promise of becoming a significant tropical cyclone. Nearly all of the model guidance has 96L moving in a northwesterly direction along the cool waters churned up in Alex's wake. It looks like 96L will miss the warm SST's at 25N, 87W. It's also expected to move from low shear to higher shear over the the Gulf of Mexico. The ocean offshort of the coastal bend of Texas (Corpus Christi to west of Houston) may allow 96L to intensify if it gets there. There is a small band of warm SST's at the continental shelf, and the wind shear is low (<10 knots).

Looking at the dynamical model output, the story is still murky. Looking at the broad picture, a broad area of 20+ mph winds will affect the Gulf coastline somewhere between Corpus Christi and southeast Louisiana. NAM favors SE Louisiana, while GEM and the parallel GFS favor the coast east of Corpus Christi. HWRF and NOGAPS have the wind affecting the coast west of Houston, while the operational GFS has the wind coming ashore east of Houston. NOGAPS and HWRF are also the only models that show surface winds that are tropical storm force.

I think that that the upper-level circulation and the surface circulation are not strongly coupled together in teh model simulations. This would explain the the discrepancies between the wind swaths I'm describing and the hurricane forecast aids. Those aids use an automatic process to identify the vortex center in the model data that may favor upper-level features for tracking instead of surface features.

To sum it all up, I believe that 96L has a <50 % chance becoming a tropical cyclone before it makes landfall. If it does so, it will likely be near the coast when that happens. In any event though, the winds and waves it generates will likely disrupt oil spill recovery efforts. Also, I would expect a broad area of showers and 20+ mph winds will affect the Gulf coast somewhere from south Texas to Louisiana.


Fig. 1 Plot of maximum winds (mph) over the next 5 days from the 12Z GFS. Parallel GFS wind swath.


Fig. 2 Plot of maximum winds (mph) over the next 5 days from the 12Z NOGAPS. Canadian Global wind swath.


Fig. 3 Plot of maximum winds (mph) over the next 5 days from the 12Z HWRF.


Fig. 4 Plot of maximum winds (mph) over the next 5 days from the 18Z NAM.

Next Update
Tweaks later tonight as necessary, possibly a late night entry describing the Northeast heat wave. Tropical update will be posted Wednesday afternoon.

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812. IKE
9:09 AM GMT on July 07, 2010
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
811. apocalyps
8:52 AM GMT on July 07, 2010
96L looks no good however back over water he could develope into TD today
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 960
809. GTcooliebai
8:07 AM GMT on July 07, 2010
ULL moving away from 96L, will be interesting to see if the dry air will move with it or stick around to inhibit 96L development. The circulation is still profound though.



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
804. IKE
7:47 AM GMT on July 07, 2010
803. canehater1
7:32 AM GMT on July 07, 2010
96-L little more than a trough now no apparent circulation....just enough of a nuisance to
keep skimmer vessels in port another day or two. There has been no organized skimming at
Deepwater Horizon site since Alex...hopefully
winds and seas subside sooner than expected....
Member Since: September 8, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 1085
802. KoritheMan
7:16 AM GMT on July 07, 2010
Quoting Hurricanejer95:


You can get 40 frames of radar without paying just change num (number of frames)
http://www.wunde rground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=1&ID=DAX&type=N0R&showstorms=99 &lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x =400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&a mp;lightning=0&lerror=20&num _stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=1

to

http://www.wunde rground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=40&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=1&ID=DAX&type=N0R&showstorms=99 &lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x =400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&a mp;lightning=0&lerror=20&num _stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=1

but you still get ads





Interesting circumvention method. lol
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21330
801. Morgana
7:10 AM GMT on July 07, 2010
Ya'll convinced me to pop for the $10.00 I have lurked for years...long time.
Member Since: June 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 11
800. robert88
7:01 AM GMT on July 07, 2010
96L looks a little dry tonight. It has about 48-54 hours to do something until it hits land going by the OOZ GFDL. 96L better start popping soon or it's toast lol I don't think this invest has much of a chance looking at the latest satellite images. I think the NHC is being quite generous with 40% imo. It sure doesn't have the time that Alex had. The GFS has been persistent showing the TUTT moving away and light trade winds in the E Atlantic within the next 14 days. That is when things are going to get real interesting with these CV waves coming across. The pattern looks more similar to what you see in mid August and does not bode well for residents in the W GOM. You guys are going to be glued to the tv and internet in the next couple of weeks most likely.
Member Since: May 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 908
796. Hurricanejer95
6:33 AM GMT on July 07, 2010
Quoting KoritheMan:
I'm now considering paying just for the radar. $10 isn't a whole lot, anyway...


You can get 40 frames of radar without paying just change num (number of frames)
http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=1&ID=DAX&type=N0R&showstorms=99&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x =400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num _stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=1

to

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=40&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=1&ID=DAX&type=N0R&showstorms=99&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x =400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num _stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=1

but you still get ads



Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 259
794. KarenRei
6:17 AM GMT on July 07, 2010
Quoting TampaSpin:
Don't know if you all have looked at the BP oil LIve feeds lately or not, but the BOP appears to be swaying back and forth now....could be just an illusion but, it sure looks very unstable now......i have links on my WU blog to my site with the live feeds if anyone wants to observe.


Well, they've got 8-10' waves out there right now, so I'm not surprised.
Member Since: September 7, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 940
793. TampaSpin
6:14 AM GMT on July 07, 2010
Don't know if you all have looked at the BP oil LIve feeds lately or not, but the BOP appears to be swaying back and forth now....could be just an illusion but, it sure looks very unstable now......i have links on my WU blog to my site with the live feeds if anyone wants to observe.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
792. TexasHurricane
6:11 AM GMT on July 07, 2010
Quoting Daveg:


Just like watching Alex all over again (as far as tracking)....weird. Ok, now I'm out.
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
791. sirmaelstrom
6:09 AM GMT on July 07, 2010
Quoting duajones78413:
Corpus Christian here, what might I expect from 96? I realize there is no way to give exact expectations, but based on what you guys study, should I be concerned?


NHC currently is calling for a 40% chance of a tropical depression within 48 hrs, while most models are currently showing a landfall within 100 miles or so of Brownsville. I'm not exactly sure where Corpus Christi is but if it's near Brownsville, I would at least keep an eye on it. Most likely a heavy rain event at the minimum.

NHC
Models for 96L
Member Since: February 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 580
790. Daveg
6:08 AM GMT on July 07, 2010
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 426
789. TexasHurricane
6:08 AM GMT on July 07, 2010
Nite all, check back tomorrow.
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
788. KarenRei
6:04 AM GMT on July 07, 2010
Quoting duajones78413:
Corpus Christian here, what might I expect from 96? I realize there is no way to give exact expectations, but based on what you guys study, should I be concerned?


TS, may or may not hit you.
Member Since: September 7, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 940
786. TampaSpin
6:02 AM GMT on July 07, 2010
Quoting KoritheMan:
I'm now considering paying just for the radar. $10 isn't a whole lot, anyway...


Been on WU for some time myself.......Use to Pay the $10.00 but, since i have been Banned for no truly good cause......other than truly helping people......i would never pay them $10.00 again......JMHO!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
785. AllBoardedUp
6:01 AM GMT on July 07, 2010
Quoting jlp09550:


You're welcome.

I'm heading to bed now. Not enough cooking in the GOM at the moment to keep me awake. Here's the latest imagery from GHCC anyways.



Goodnight.
Quoting jlp09550:


You're welcome.

I'm heading to bed now. Not enough cooking in the GOM at the moment to keep me awake. Here's the latest imagery from GHCC anyways.



Goodnight.
Same here, been a long day.
Member Since: July 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 626
784. duajones78413
5:57 AM GMT on July 07, 2010
Corpus Christian here, what might I expect from 96? I realize there is no way to give exact expectations, but based on what you guys study, should I be concerned?
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 287
783. jlp09550
5:57 AM GMT on July 07, 2010
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
772, thanks, I might have to look into being a paid member. You ought to get a commission!


You're welcome.

I'm heading to bed now. Not enough cooking in the GOM at the moment to keep me awake. Here's the latest imagery from GHCC anyways.



Goodnight.
Member Since: February 21, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 340
782. AllBoardedUp
5:54 AM GMT on July 07, 2010
772, thanks, I might have to look into being a paid member. You ought to get a commission!
Member Since: July 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 626
780. sirmaelstrom
5:51 AM GMT on July 07, 2010
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
I have a free membership, but I don't see that many ads. Usually, one at the top of the screen, one at the top right and one at the bottom, but that's all. No pop up either. But I do have Firefox.


I have Firefox and never saw the ads either (even before upgrading to the paid account). I'm pretty sure the pop-up blocker prevents them.
Member Since: February 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 580
779. KoritheMan
5:51 AM GMT on July 07, 2010
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
I have a free membership, but I don't see that many ads. Usually, one at the top of the screen, one at the top right and one at the bottom, but that's all. No pop up either. But I do have Firefox.


Yeah, I don't get any ads either (because I use Firefox/Adblock), despite not being a paid member. Hence my earlier question to Keeper about circumvention of ads via Adblock.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21330
778. Houstonia
5:50 AM GMT on July 07, 2010
I guess I need to pay up... ;-)

Handle: Houstonia
Status: Your No-Ads Membership Expired!
Expiration: 2009-08-29 21:56:23
Signed Up: 2003-05-20 16:53:44

You have posted 0 entries in your own blog.
You have posted 62 comments in all blogs.

I've probably posted more comments this year than all years combined...
Member Since: May 20, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 71
777. AllBoardedUp
5:49 AM GMT on July 07, 2010
I have a free membership, but I don't see that many ads. Usually, one at the top of the screen, one at the top right and one at the bottom, but that's all. No pop up either. But I do have Firefox.
Member Since: July 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 626
776. KoritheMan
5:49 AM GMT on July 07, 2010
I'm now considering paying just for the radar. $10 isn't a whole lot, anyway...
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21330
775. Levi32
5:48 AM GMT on July 07, 2010
Quoting jlp09550:




Right...it was email alerts, not calender.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
774. KarenRei
5:48 AM GMT on July 07, 2010
Quoting TexasHurricane:
96L don't seem to be looking so good....



I disagree (IMHO) -- it seems to be consolidating its circulation in the northern Yucatan. Now, it doesn't have any deep convection there right now. But I bet by tomorrow morning it'll be firing. Convection comes and goes; consolidating to a single circulation is the most important thing for it to do right now.
Member Since: September 7, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 940
773. KoritheMan
5:47 AM GMT on July 07, 2010
.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21330
772. jlp09550
5:47 AM GMT on July 07, 2010
Quoting KoritheMan:


Just thought of something. Assuming that the only benefit a paid membership offers is the lack of ads, then can't that easily be circumvented via Firefox's Adblock add-on?

If so, then I think perhaps the admins need to look into that.


Member Since: February 21, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 340
771. Levi32
5:47 AM GMT on July 07, 2010
Quoting KoritheMan:


Just thought of something. Assuming that the only benefit a paid membership offers is the lack of ads, then can't that easily be circumvented via Firefox's Adblock add-on?

If so, then I think perhaps the admins need to look into that.


You also get up to 40-frame radar loops instead of only 6, as well as some calender thingy features which I never use so I don't know much about. There are a good few items that you get for being a paid member besides ads.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
770. reedzone
5:46 AM GMT on July 07, 2010
The NON-TROPICAL low is starting to acquire some Subtropical characteristics as some convection is forming and banding becoming evident. The NHC may take notice tomorrow if it continues to organize.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7437
769. sirmaelstrom
5:46 AM GMT on July 07, 2010
Quoting KoritheMan:


Just thought of something. Assuming that the only benefit a paid membership offers is the lack of ads, then can't that easily be circumvented via Firefox's Adblock add-on?

If so, then I think perhaps the admins need to look into that.


Paid membership also gets you 40 frames of radar as opposed to six. It's actually quite nice.
Member Since: February 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 580
768. TexasHurricane
5:45 AM GMT on July 07, 2010
96L don't seem to be looking so good....

Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
766. AllBoardedUp
5:45 AM GMT on July 07, 2010
Quoting TexasGulf:


Methane emissions from Houston's annual Burrito Festival refracting from the sunlight above the clouds.

In some distant galaxy, other life forms are viewing the far away annual glow from that one spot on the planet Earth. They still think it's some atmospheric phenomenon.
We need to find a way to harness all that energy and put it to good use!
Member Since: July 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 626
765. KoritheMan
5:44 AM GMT on July 07, 2010
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
3051 comments and 44 entries posted by all members in the last 24 hours.

You have posted 74 entries in your own blog.

You have posted 27169 comments in all blogs.


Handle: KEEPEROFTHEGATE
Status: No-Ads Paid Membership
Expiration: 2011-07-01 03:06:05
Signed Up: 2006-07-15 14:37:36




Just thought of something. Assuming that the only benefit a paid membership offers is the lack of ads, then can't that easily be circumvented via Firefox's Adblock add-on?

If so, then I think perhaps the admins need to look into that.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21330
764. TexasGulf
5:43 AM GMT on July 07, 2010
Quoting Skyepony:
Ya'll seen this wunderphoto by teach50? Thoughts?


Methane emissions from Houston's annual Burrito Festival refracting from the sunlight above the clouds.

In some distant galaxy, other life forms are viewing the far away annual glow from that one spot on the planet Earth. They still think it's some atmospheric phenomenon.
Member Since: April 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 354
763. AllBoardedUp
5:42 AM GMT on July 07, 2010
What is the difference between the paid and free memberships? Do you have access to more information, etc?
Member Since: July 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 626
762. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
5:37 AM GMT on July 07, 2010
3051 comments and 44 entries posted by all members in the last 24 hours.

You have posted 74 entries in your own blog.

You have posted 27169 comments in all blogs.


Handle: KEEPEROFTHEGATE
Status: No-Ads Paid Membership
Expiration: 2011-07-01 03:06:05
Signed Up: 2006-07-15 14:37:36


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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