Invest 95L Brushes Louisiana Coastline

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:42 AM GMT on July 06, 2010

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Hi all,

Dr. Rob Carver, filling in for Jeff this week.

Midnight CDT Update
The low known as Invest 95L stopped it's northward progression and is now moving west along the Louisiana coastline. This is the oddest mesoscale convective complex/tropical feature I've seen in awhile. It's still producing a lot of rain, 2+ inches inland and 6+ inches over the ocean.


Base reflectivity from Lake Charles, LA at 11PM July 5 showing a very nice comma head. Animated loop.


Invest 95L is making landfall now in southern Louisiana near Terrebonne Bay. A CMAN station in Terrebonne Bay is currently reporting winds from the SE at 21 mph and the pressure is 1009 mb. Looking at the radar data, Invest 95L never had convection around the center of circulation. Also, it was hard to see a distinct surface circulation in the different analyses available. I believe soaking rains for southern Lousisana are going to be Invest 95L's main legacy. It's already produced 5+ inches of rain in some offshore locations according to radar-derived rainfall estimates.


Fig. 1 Meteogram for TRBL1 in Terrebonne Bay, LA. Tabular data are here.


Fig. 2 Base reflectivity from New Orleans, LA at 706PM, July 5. Animated loop.

Invest 96L
430 AM Update
In sum, the 00Z model runs don't present a different picture. It is curious to note that the Canadian Global model does not intensify 96L at all in the 00Z run, while NOGAPS has shifted towards a SE Louisiana landfall. I think the following discussion is still valid.

96L is going to be an interesting feature to forecast. It's still on the edge of a strong wind shear gradient. 40+ knots of shear are on the NE side of 96L, and <10 knots are on the SW side. The "center" of 96L is under about 15 knots of shear. This is likely inhibiting 96L. Nearly all forecast models take 96L NW through the Yucatan peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico. Near the Yucatan itself, sea-surface temperatures are relatively cool, not the best environment for intensification. However, at 25N, 87W there is a hotspot of SST's, which would promote rapid intensification. However, there's currently 20 knots of shear over the hotspot, so the thunderstorms that do form as a result will be well ventilated, and not cause 96L to intensify.

The dynamical models have different takes on how 96L intensifies in the next 120 hours. The 18Z operational GFS strongly intensifies 96L over the hotspot and takes 96L towards Grand Isle, LA. The parallel (for testing model configuration changes) GFS has a similar track, but does not strengthen 96L as much. This indicates uncertainty on how the models are handling the upper-level winds.

The 18Z HWRF solution is much like the parallel GFS solution. The 12Z Canadian global model has a more westerly track, pushing 96L towards Port Arthur, but it strengthens 96L right before it makes landfall, not when it's over open water. NOGAPS takes the "a little from column A, a little from column B" approach, with a spinup over the hotspot (op. GFS solution), but a westerly landfall (the Canadian solution). More data to initialize the models from synoptic reconnaissance flights will help reduce uncertainty.

The bottom line, 96L will move into the Gulf of Mexico and is then shrouded by the mists of uncertainty. I also think that it's a possibility (>50%) that it will become a tropical cyclone sometime in the next 48-72 hours (leaning towards sometime in day 2-3 based on the model runs.)


Fig. 3 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 GFS model run.Parallel GFS version.


Fig. 4 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 HWRF model run.


Fig. 5 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 12Z July 5 CMC global model run.NOGAPS wind swath.

Next update
I'll probably tweak this blog later tonight as new model runs come in. I'll have a full update tomorrow afternoon (Pacific time).

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2120. centex
3:53 AM GMT on July 07, 2010
There are some cools temps right off coast.

Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3233
2119. BahaHurican
1:40 AM GMT on July 07, 2010
Quoting Levi32:


That upper low is splitting off as it backs southwestward and will be interacting with an old front and tropical wave east of the Bahamas during the next few days. There is a small chance we could see something, perhaps not purely tropical, try to wind up from this and head north, but we'll have to see. It's another large mess that has to bundle the energy in order to develop. Either way, it is likely not a big concern for anyone on the U.S. coastline, but the Canadian Maritimes may eventually feel the effects of any system that could potentially develop.
I'm just glad we're getting a little break from the rain and overcast skies... I'm sure it won't last much longer...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22081
2118. thelmores
1:07 AM GMT on July 07, 2010
not too shabby for the end of the first week in July!


Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
2117. mtyweatherfan90
12:51 AM GMT on July 07, 2010
not good :( models shifting further south

Member Since: July 9, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 334
2116. Orcasystems
12:19 AM GMT on July 07, 2010


AOI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
2115. aspectre
12:08 AM GMT on July 07, 2010
Either Patrap "WAmp..wahhhhhhhhh"ed the next/1536blog too hard
or NRAamy's "SQUAWK!!!" blew out the sensors it uses to detect incoming messages.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
2114. CanesfanatUT
12:06 AM GMT on July 07, 2010
Gig 'em (atmo) - we at teh new blog, brah. So no whinin' this time. LOL
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 527
2113. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
12:02 AM GMT on July 07, 2010
BLOG UPDATE
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53805
2112. wunderkidcayman
12:02 AM GMT on July 07, 2010
they up the % to 40%
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11975
2111. CaicosRetiredSailor
12:00 AM GMT on July 07, 2010
BIG BLOG HOLE

and Rob and new blog fell into it.....
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6032
2109. StormSurgeon
11:57 PM GMT on July 06, 2010
Quoting Levi32:


Calculus, and it's not just up, it's everywhere. It's a miracle I found any time to track Alex lol.


Heard that, divided by pi.........
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
2108. nrtiwlnvragn
11:56 PM GMT on July 06, 2010
NEW BLOG
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11156
2107. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
11:55 PM GMT on July 06, 2010
Quoting Patrap:
Yup..and the 13 other eyewall's and specifics to them.

Let alone the TS's and other Vortexes to boot.

Plttttttttttttt...............

Im lost as to Snowflakes I must admit.

your not lost i know right where you are
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53805
2106. HurricaneSwirl
11:54 PM GMT on July 06, 2010
No posts for 10 minutes?
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
2105. Levi32
11:53 PM GMT on July 06, 2010
Quoting Dakster:
Levi32,

And the good news is??? You left that part out.

Is this a setup for the CV storms to track right into Florida or would they curve before hitting CONUS.


It's a pattern that favors long-track storms that could continue WNW right towards the Caribbean and United States without recurving. Florida could certainly be a potential target for such a system that makes it all the way west, like Frances in 2004.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
2104. GeoffreyWPB
11:52 PM GMT on July 06, 2010
New Blog.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11150
2103. IKE
11:52 PM GMT on July 06, 2010
Merida, MX (Airport)....21.0N and 89.7W
Updated: 22 min 6 sec ago
Overcast
81 °F
Overcast
Humidity: 94%
Dew Point: 79 °F
Wind: 7 mph from the SW
Pressure: 29.74 in (Steady)
Heat Index: 88 °F
Visibility: 7.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 1000 ft
Overcast 2500 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 33 ft
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2102. Tazmanian
11:51 PM GMT on July 06, 2010
new blog
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115078
2101. beell
11:51 PM GMT on July 06, 2010
blog: new
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16605
2100. StormSurgeon
11:51 PM GMT on July 06, 2010
Quoting Levi32:


Calculus, and it's not just up, it's everywhere. It's a miracle I found any time to track Alex.


Made it through Calc 1 and then changed majors to Geography. Couldn't handle the math....as many here.
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
2099. Patrap
11:50 PM GMT on July 06, 2010
Er..NEW Blog Dogs and cats
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128259
2098. GeoffreyWPB
11:50 PM GMT on July 06, 2010
How many TWO's will be posted:

1. One
2. 2-4
3. 5-8
4. It doesn't matter...It will be too many.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11150
2097. cyclonekid
11:49 PM GMT on July 06, 2010
Quoting Levi32:


That upper low is splitting off as it backs southwestward and will be interacting with an old front and tropical wave east of the Bahamas during the next few days. There is a small chance we could see something, perhaps not purely tropical, try to wind up from this and head north, but we'll have to see. It's another large mess that has to bundle the energy in order to develop. Either way, it is likely not a big concern for anyone on the U.S. coastline, but the Canadian Maritimes may eventually feel the effects of any system that could potentially develop.
Oohh. Thanks!
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1731
2095. WatchingThisOne
11:49 PM GMT on July 06, 2010
NEW BLOG
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1266
2094. Hurricanes101
11:49 PM GMT on July 06, 2010
Quoting belizeit:
Recon is now finding west winds


This is not a recon mission for 96L
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7683
2093. Tazmanian
11:47 PM GMT on July 06, 2010
Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
1009mb (Surface) 140° (from the SE) 15 knots (17 mph)
991mb 130° (from the SE) 14 knots (16 mph)
909mb 130° (from the SE) 23 knots (26 mph)
850mb 130° (from the SE) 23 knots (26 mph)
743mb 130° (from the SE) 21 knots (24 mph)
681mb 105° (from the ESE) 10 knots (12 mph)
617mb 175° (from the S) 11 knots (13 mph)
571mb 195° (from the SSW) 4 knots (5 mph)
546mb 220° (from the SW) 11 knots (13 mph)
528mb 220° (from the SW) 11 knots (13 mph)
498mb 170° (from the S) 12 knots (14 mph)
485mb 195° (from the SSW) 14 knots (16 mph)
410mb 165° (from the SSE) 19 knots (22 mph)
383mb 145° (from the SE) 10 knots (12 mph)
353mb 160° (from the SSE) 11 knots (13 mph)
286mb 160° (from the SSE) 1 knots (1 mph)
211mb 30° (from the NNE) 7 knots (8 mph)
203mb 10° (from the N) 10 knots (12 mph)
180mb 20° (from the NNE) 20 knots (23 mph)
172mb 355° (from the N) 22 knots (25 mph)
162mb 355° (from the N) 27 knots (31 mph)
147mb 10° (from the N) 50 knots (58 mph)
The highest wind observed in the "Significant Wind Levels" section is noted in bold.
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115078
2092. JLPR2
11:47 PM GMT on July 06, 2010
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8690
2091. Hurricanes101
11:47 PM GMT on July 06, 2010
Quoting belizeit:
Recon is now finding west winds


its not a recon mission for 96L
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7683
2089. MiamiHurricanes09
11:47 PM GMT on July 06, 2010
NEW BLOG
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
2088. WatchingThisOne
11:46 PM GMT on July 06, 2010
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
go to blog display page look to your right and down to Community Participation just under featured bloggers list


Link to "blog display page" ? Can't find the sucker.
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1266
2087. transitzone
11:46 PM GMT on July 06, 2010
Quoting Levi32:
Non-tasked recon mission at the 650mb (12000ft) level is checking out 96L. There is a wind shift from SE to NE around the NW Yucatan Peninsula. Keep in mind these are winds at 650mb...not surface winds. Extrapolated surface pressures are also iffy at this altitude.



Levi - What GE plugin are you using for this? The one I'm using to pick up the flights is not pulling this data in. Thanks
Member Since: March 22, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 62
2086. hurricane47
11:45 PM GMT on July 06, 2010
In the older books on Hurricanes any pressure falling below 28.00 was considered a great Hurricane. These were the days before the Saffir-Simpson scale was adopted. The Sept 1947 Hurricane that hit Ft Laud was 27.97 with winds of 155. I know because I first became interested in storms at the age of 14 with this CV type and remember it very vividly.
Member Since: June 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 16
2085. Dakster
11:44 PM GMT on July 06, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
To me knowledge (So I'm probably wrong, lol) there is a high placed over the S.E US and GOM and the B/A high so it will likely be a westward trucker type of system that goes straight into the Yucatan after a long trak across the Atlantic and Caribbean.


Ala Hurricane Season 2006?
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10278
2084. beell
11:44 PM GMT on July 06, 2010
One thing is for certain, Anything I or anyone else may say to or about Levi...it will not deter him in the pusuit of his tropical passion. Refreshing!
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16605
2083. Dakster
11:43 PM GMT on July 06, 2010
Cosmic - Yeah me too. I would like a nice red 'X' and 'you are here'...
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10278
2082. MiamiHurricanes09
11:43 PM GMT on July 06, 2010
Quoting Dakster:
Levi32,

And the good news is??? You left that part out.

Is this a setup for the CV storms to track right into Florida or would they curve before hitting CONUS.
To me knowledge (So I'm probably wrong, lol) there is a high placed over the S.E US and GOM and the B/A high so it will likely be a westward trucker type of system that goes straight into the Yucatan after a long trek across the Atlantic and Caribbean.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
2081. Levi32
11:43 PM GMT on July 06, 2010
Quoting cyclonekid:
Levi, what are the chances of this non-tropical low to acquire subtropical characteristics??



That upper low is splitting off as it backs southwestward and will be interacting with an old front and tropical wave east of the Bahamas during the next few days. There is a small chance we could see something, perhaps not purely tropical, try to wind up from this and head north, but we'll have to see. It's another large mess that has to bundle the energy in order to develop. Either way, it is likely not a big concern for anyone on the U.S. coastline, but the Canadian Maritimes may eventually feel the effects of any system that could potentially develop.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
2080. centex
11:43 PM GMT on July 06, 2010
What is the forecast for the dry air in western gulf? Like in 24-36 hours?
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3233
2079. belizeit
11:43 PM GMT on July 06, 2010
Recon is now finding west winds
Member Since: January 10, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 920
2078. CosmicEvents
11:42 PM GMT on July 06, 2010
Quoting Levi32:
I'm not surprised by this on the long-range GFS at all. It has been showing a ridiculously favorable pattern for Cape Verde development in the 2nd half of July.

It's hard to find the US in that image from #2053. Maybe it's just me though. I find that many times, it takes me a few seconds to make out the geographical outline in some types of maps.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5578
2077. cirrocumulus
11:41 PM GMT on July 06, 2010
96L will probably grow rapidly once it is done with the Yucatan.
Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606
2076. itrackstorms
11:41 PM GMT on July 06, 2010
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 152
2075. Levi32
11:40 PM GMT on July 06, 2010
Perhaps feeling the warming of the temperature by several degrees Celsius inside the eye of a hurricane could inspire one to infer the core structure of a hurricane....you never know.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
2074. MiamiHurricanes09
11:40 PM GMT on July 06, 2010
Quoting Levi32:


That's the end of the run, to the disappointment of many...lol.
Lol. Well it goes to show how favorable conditions will be for a Cape Verde type system to develop regardless of how far out it is.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
2073. Levi32
11:39 PM GMT on July 06, 2010
Quoting StormSurgeon:


Spoken like an expert, been on that bandwagon for two days.....by the way, what's up Levi?


Calculus, and it's not just up, it's everywhere. It's a miracle I found any time to track Alex lol.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
2072. Dakster
11:39 PM GMT on July 06, 2010
Levi32,

And the good news is??? You left that part out.

Is this a setup for the CV storms to track right into Florida or would they curve before hitting CONUS.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10278
2071. JLPR2
11:39 PM GMT on July 06, 2010
Quoting Levi32:
I'm not surprised by this on the long-range GFS at all. It has been showing a ridiculously favorable pattern for Cape Verde development in the 2nd half of July.



Parallel version:



I think I'm happier with this one XD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8690
2070. muddertracker
11:38 PM GMT on July 06, 2010
Quoting Dakster:
Nah Muddertracker, you should be involved. The more the merrier.

Waiting on this 8pm report and model runs!
Me, too. I'm curious about what 96 has in store...some surprises, maybe?
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2348

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.