Invest 95L Brushes Louisiana Coastline

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:42 AM GMT on July 06, 2010

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Hi all,

Dr. Rob Carver, filling in for Jeff this week.

Midnight CDT Update
The low known as Invest 95L stopped it's northward progression and is now moving west along the Louisiana coastline. This is the oddest mesoscale convective complex/tropical feature I've seen in awhile. It's still producing a lot of rain, 2+ inches inland and 6+ inches over the ocean.


Base reflectivity from Lake Charles, LA at 11PM July 5 showing a very nice comma head. Animated loop.


Invest 95L is making landfall now in southern Louisiana near Terrebonne Bay. A CMAN station in Terrebonne Bay is currently reporting winds from the SE at 21 mph and the pressure is 1009 mb. Looking at the radar data, Invest 95L never had convection around the center of circulation. Also, it was hard to see a distinct surface circulation in the different analyses available. I believe soaking rains for southern Lousisana are going to be Invest 95L's main legacy. It's already produced 5+ inches of rain in some offshore locations according to radar-derived rainfall estimates.


Fig. 1 Meteogram for TRBL1 in Terrebonne Bay, LA. Tabular data are here.


Fig. 2 Base reflectivity from New Orleans, LA at 706PM, July 5. Animated loop.

Invest 96L
430 AM Update
In sum, the 00Z model runs don't present a different picture. It is curious to note that the Canadian Global model does not intensify 96L at all in the 00Z run, while NOGAPS has shifted towards a SE Louisiana landfall. I think the following discussion is still valid.

96L is going to be an interesting feature to forecast. It's still on the edge of a strong wind shear gradient. 40+ knots of shear are on the NE side of 96L, and <10 knots are on the SW side. The "center" of 96L is under about 15 knots of shear. This is likely inhibiting 96L. Nearly all forecast models take 96L NW through the Yucatan peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico. Near the Yucatan itself, sea-surface temperatures are relatively cool, not the best environment for intensification. However, at 25N, 87W there is a hotspot of SST's, which would promote rapid intensification. However, there's currently 20 knots of shear over the hotspot, so the thunderstorms that do form as a result will be well ventilated, and not cause 96L to intensify.

The dynamical models have different takes on how 96L intensifies in the next 120 hours. The 18Z operational GFS strongly intensifies 96L over the hotspot and takes 96L towards Grand Isle, LA. The parallel (for testing model configuration changes) GFS has a similar track, but does not strengthen 96L as much. This indicates uncertainty on how the models are handling the upper-level winds.

The 18Z HWRF solution is much like the parallel GFS solution. The 12Z Canadian global model has a more westerly track, pushing 96L towards Port Arthur, but it strengthens 96L right before it makes landfall, not when it's over open water. NOGAPS takes the "a little from column A, a little from column B" approach, with a spinup over the hotspot (op. GFS solution), but a westerly landfall (the Canadian solution). More data to initialize the models from synoptic reconnaissance flights will help reduce uncertainty.

The bottom line, 96L will move into the Gulf of Mexico and is then shrouded by the mists of uncertainty. I also think that it's a possibility (>50%) that it will become a tropical cyclone sometime in the next 48-72 hours (leaning towards sometime in day 2-3 based on the model runs.)


Fig. 3 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 GFS model run.Parallel GFS version.


Fig. 4 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 HWRF model run.


Fig. 5 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 12Z July 5 CMC global model run.NOGAPS wind swath.

Next update
I'll probably tweak this blog later tonight as new model runs come in. I'll have a full update tomorrow afternoon (Pacific time).

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1770. Levi32
Quoting Patrap:
Look real closely atmo mid gulf at the surface..a Cyclonic rotation is there.





It never wasn't.
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1769. Patrap
And note the Long Range here

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128757
1768. Patrap
Look real closely atmo mid gulf at the surface..a Cyclonic rotation is there.



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128757
Thanks MH09
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I find it interesting that the TPW for here (SE LA) is higher than the scary-wave...and much higher than either around the central GOM trough.

Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
1765. Levi32
Quoting earthlydragonfly:
Quick question.... how many miles are in a degree? ex. 70w 15N to 71w 15N is how far?


67 miles.

Here's the list of longitude degree distances between each longitude point at different latitudes.


5N - 69 miles
10N - 68 miles
15N - 67 miles
20N - 65 miles
25N - 63 miles
30N - 60 miles
35N - 57 miles
40N - 53 miles
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1764. scott39
Quoting StormSurgeon:


Scott, it's about to vomit on you.....
I need a shower now!
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:
Quick question.... how many miles are in a degree? ex. 70w 15N to 71w 15N is how far?
67 miles.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting TexasHurricane:


Oops, theres 90L afterall, thought we lost it...enjoy the rain.....
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Quoting JLPR2:


I will be sincere, I disliked this, I know it wasn't your intention, but the fact that it affects the US doesn't make it any more important in my eyes, you guys would probably be able to handle it better than Mexico right now, lots of damage over there from Alex that needs repairing and horrible floods that would go out of control with another tropical system.
I was about to say the same thing. I give you a "+" for that one.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quick question.... how many miles are in a degree? ex. 70w 15N to 71w 15N is how far?
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Quoting BaltOCane:


We get a slight breeze, but all it's doing is moving hot air around. Not refreshing at all.


Get a soft cooler like one for a kids lunch, put in ice, lemon slices and hand towels. Use them on your face and neck to stay cool. Put towels back in cooler when done..repeat.
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Quoting hydrus:
We would have to go back a way to see the last time we had a 90 million dollar damage figure. Excluding 2009 of course.
2006 had a total damage of $540 million (2010 USD), that's about half of Alex.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting scott39:
Are these Invests and TC just a warm up to the real action in Sep?


Scott, it's about to vomit on you.....
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1755. JLPR2
Quoting TexasGulf:


If the soon-to-be-named Bonnie doesn't match Alex in intensity... at least it can beat Alex in relevance. Bonnie is projected to go more North than Alex, perhaps into the Houston/Galveston area or SW Louisiana. Houston's ground is already saturated from Alex, so additional will likely lead to local flooding.

IMHO, heavy rains & flooding in the Houston area and possible disruption to the oil spill containment efforts in the gulf more than trump the Cat-2 Alex.


I will be sincere, I disliked this, I know it wasn't your intention, but the fact that it affects the US doesn't make it any more important in my eyes, you guys would probably be able to handle it better than Mexico right now, lots of damage over there from Alex that needs repairing and horrible floods that would go out of control with another tropical system.
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Quoting hydrus:
That brings back memories. Ran for shore many times. We were true anglers back then.


We got caught out in a large thunderstorm one time. Probably the most terrifying thing I've ever experienced. I had my eyes closed praying, but that still didn't keep me from seeing the flash of the lightning. It was striking very close to us and we were the tallest object for miles. Prayer might have done the trick for us...
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Hey guys can you post a link to a sat for E atlantic not from SSD they only do 6 hourly updates of the image and I need to see the newest one and also the loop as well thanks
Here's a good site, updates every 15 minutes or so:

Sat24
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Baybuddy:
Is there any wind in the larger metro areas? Seems to me it would feel like being in a hot box...so many people.


We get a slight breeze, but all it's doing is moving hot air around. Not refreshing at all.
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1750. angiest
Quoting hydrus:
We would have to go back a way to see the last time we had a 90 million dollar damage figure. Excluding 2009 of course.


Is that for the entire Atlantic basin or just the US?
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
1749. scott39
Are these Invests and TC just a warm up to the real action in Sep?
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Quoting TexasGulf:


If the soon-to-be-named Bonnie doesn't match Alex in intensity... at least it can beat Alex in relevance. Bonnie is projected to go more North than Alex, perhaps into the Houston/Galveston area or SW Louisiana. Houston's ground is already saturated from Alex, so additional will likely lead to local flooding.

IMHO, heavy rains & flooding in the Houston area and possible disruption to the oil spill containment efforts in the gulf more than trump the Cat-2 Alex.
The ridge over the U.S strengthened thus models have shifted further south, so for the time being I wouldn't be looking towards northern Texas. The current "strike zone" is probably southern Texas and maybe northern Mexico, although unlikely that it'll go that south.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Netflyer:


Here in DC was almost as hot at the airport but as I rounded the SW beltway my car thermo. was up to 109, down here in S.MD at my house my high was 103 in the shade, St. Mary's county has several reports in the 104's. Wait until the dew point comes up into the 60's...


It's always such a joy when that happens.
A wall of 90 degree heat is exactly what I want 7:30 in the morning.
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1746. hydrus
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Alex so far has caused $1.21 billion in damage. That's a lot more than the total of 2009 which was just about $90 million.
We would have to go back a way to see the last time we had a 90 million dollar damage figure. Excluding 2009 of course.
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Hey guys can you post a link to a sat for E atlantic not from SSD they only do 6 hourly updates of the image and I need to see the newest one and also the loop as well thanks
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Quoting mrsalagranny:
Why does fldew. think im faking my name?
He doesn't granny. He sees it is a fake. It was his post that pointed it out to me.
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OH well I guess i have to just deal with all the chaos.If I knew people were gonna try to harass me i would have just lurked and not commented.
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Quoting Netflyer:


Here in DC was almost as hot at the airport but as I rounded the SW beltway my car thermo. was up to 109, down here in S.MD at my house my high was 103 in the shade, St. Mary's county has several reports in the 104's. Wait until the dew point comes up into the 60's...
Is there any wind in the larger metro areas? Seems to me it would feel like being in a hot box...so many people.
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1741. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 PM CDT TUE JUL 06 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE NORTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING N ALONG 90W TO NEAR 28N. BOTH...THE LOW PRES
AND THE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN TANDEM ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE GULF REGION WED AND THU...AND THEN ARE FORECAST
TO MOVE INLAND...ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND NE MEXICO LATE THU.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS LOW PRES TO BECOME A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD FROM THE
E ALONG 28N LATE THU THROUGH SAT.
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1740. hydrus
Quoting FLdewey:


Oh lord the fake "granny" accounts are multiplying.

Tampa is about to get drenched... hope the afternoon boaters beat it back in.



That brings back memories. Ran for shore many times. We were true anglers back then.
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Why does fldew. think im faking my name?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I'm still holding my opinion that we'll see Bonnie out of 96L, but one thing is for certain, and that is that 96L will probably not match Alex in intensity.



If the soon-to-be-named Bonnie doesn't match Alex in intensity... at least it can beat Alex in relevance. Bonnie is projected to go more North than Alex, perhaps into the Houston/Galveston area or SW Louisiana. Houston's ground is already saturated from Alex, so additional will likely lead to local flooding.

IMHO, heavy rains & flooding in the Houston area and possible disruption to the oil spill containment efforts in the gulf more than trump the Cat-2 Alex.
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Looks like we got a man granny.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting mrsalagranny:
Msgambler I dont know hwo that is.Its not my husband.He is at work.
Didn't even notice that until FLdew. pointed it out a minute ago. SOme people.....
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Quoting Levi32:


For sure....they don't need anymore rain over there. Hopefully it will track by to the north and spare those regions. Texas can share some of the load this time.
Alex so far has caused $1.21 billion in damage. That's a lot more than the total of 2009 which was just about $90 million.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1734. hydrus
Quoting Levi32:


For sure....they don't need anymore rain over there. Hopefully it will track by to the north and spare those regions. Texas can share some of the load this time.
Agreed.
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1733. Patrap
NOLA Long Range

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128757
Quoting Levi32:


For sure....they don't need anymore rain over there. Hopefully it will track by to the north and spare those regions. Texas can share some of the load this time.


yes we can...just please don't make it a cat 3 or above.... :)
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Hurricane Opal
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1730. angiest
Quoting Levi32:


For sure....they don't need anymore rain over there. Hopefully it will track by to the north and spare those regions. Texas can share some of the load this time.


I don't know, I think most of the southern half of Texas took about as much as we can in such a short period.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Msgambler I dont know hwo that is.Its not my husband.He is at work.
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Quoting BaltOCane:
105 in Baltimore today. No heat index, as dew points were in the 30s.

Soooo much fun.


Here in DC was almost as hot at the airport but as I rounded the SW beltway my car thermo. was up to 109, down here in S.MD at my house my high was 103 in the shade, St. Mary's county has several reports in the 104's. Wait until the dew point comes up into the 60's...
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1727. Patrap
Note the Radar Returns below the Mouth of the River.

And the Banding

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128757
1726. JLPR2
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
2100 UTC image of the wave emerging off of Africa. Although it is making the transition between water and land, thus warming some cloud tops, it does have a pretty structure to look at.



haha! Those waves always come out looking pretty.
I just hope it gets ugly soon :P
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look how high the wind shear is in the E PAC and look how low it is here wind shear is low this about evere where you look with olny a few pocketes of high shear other then that wind shear is low

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...wasn't here to say hi to! not 2 worry.
multi-tasking all the time
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Small swirl in the ocean left of land swirl on the Yucatan.

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1721. Levi32
Quoting at519:
Is that a mid level low spinning to the north of 96l in the central GOM?


That's the surface low. The mid-level low is the one over the Yucatan.
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Whoa!!!!!! Who are you and why are you trying to impose upon my name?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.