Invest 95L Brushes Louisiana Coastline

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:42 AM GMT on July 06, 2010

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Hi all,

Dr. Rob Carver, filling in for Jeff this week.

Midnight CDT Update
The low known as Invest 95L stopped it's northward progression and is now moving west along the Louisiana coastline. This is the oddest mesoscale convective complex/tropical feature I've seen in awhile. It's still producing a lot of rain, 2+ inches inland and 6+ inches over the ocean.


Base reflectivity from Lake Charles, LA at 11PM July 5 showing a very nice comma head. Animated loop.


Invest 95L is making landfall now in southern Louisiana near Terrebonne Bay. A CMAN station in Terrebonne Bay is currently reporting winds from the SE at 21 mph and the pressure is 1009 mb. Looking at the radar data, Invest 95L never had convection around the center of circulation. Also, it was hard to see a distinct surface circulation in the different analyses available. I believe soaking rains for southern Lousisana are going to be Invest 95L's main legacy. It's already produced 5+ inches of rain in some offshore locations according to radar-derived rainfall estimates.


Fig. 1 Meteogram for TRBL1 in Terrebonne Bay, LA. Tabular data are here.


Fig. 2 Base reflectivity from New Orleans, LA at 706PM, July 5. Animated loop.

Invest 96L
430 AM Update
In sum, the 00Z model runs don't present a different picture. It is curious to note that the Canadian Global model does not intensify 96L at all in the 00Z run, while NOGAPS has shifted towards a SE Louisiana landfall. I think the following discussion is still valid.

96L is going to be an interesting feature to forecast. It's still on the edge of a strong wind shear gradient. 40+ knots of shear are on the NE side of 96L, and <10 knots are on the SW side. The "center" of 96L is under about 15 knots of shear. This is likely inhibiting 96L. Nearly all forecast models take 96L NW through the Yucatan peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico. Near the Yucatan itself, sea-surface temperatures are relatively cool, not the best environment for intensification. However, at 25N, 87W there is a hotspot of SST's, which would promote rapid intensification. However, there's currently 20 knots of shear over the hotspot, so the thunderstorms that do form as a result will be well ventilated, and not cause 96L to intensify.

The dynamical models have different takes on how 96L intensifies in the next 120 hours. The 18Z operational GFS strongly intensifies 96L over the hotspot and takes 96L towards Grand Isle, LA. The parallel (for testing model configuration changes) GFS has a similar track, but does not strengthen 96L as much. This indicates uncertainty on how the models are handling the upper-level winds.

The 18Z HWRF solution is much like the parallel GFS solution. The 12Z Canadian global model has a more westerly track, pushing 96L towards Port Arthur, but it strengthens 96L right before it makes landfall, not when it's over open water. NOGAPS takes the "a little from column A, a little from column B" approach, with a spinup over the hotspot (op. GFS solution), but a westerly landfall (the Canadian solution). More data to initialize the models from synoptic reconnaissance flights will help reduce uncertainty.

The bottom line, 96L will move into the Gulf of Mexico and is then shrouded by the mists of uncertainty. I also think that it's a possibility (>50%) that it will become a tropical cyclone sometime in the next 48-72 hours (leaning towards sometime in day 2-3 based on the model runs.)


Fig. 3 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 GFS model run.Parallel GFS version.


Fig. 4 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 HWRF model run.


Fig. 5 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 12Z July 5 CMC global model run.NOGAPS wind swath.

Next update
I'll probably tweak this blog later tonight as new model runs come in. I'll have a full update tomorrow afternoon (Pacific time).

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It does look like shear has relaxed considerably across the Caribbean basin.


Getting the feeling of calm before the storm.

CaribWVLoop
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ATCF center fix:
AL, 96, 2010070600, , BEST, 0, 196N, 861W, 30, 1007, DB,

SAB:
05/2345 UTC 17.6N 85.2W T1.0/1.0 96L

Still pending on TAFB.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting TxWxFan:
AL, 95, 2010070512, , BEST, 0, 284N, 909W, 30, 1009, TD,
AL, 95, 2010070518, , BEST, 0, 287N, 910W, 35, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 25,
AL, 95, 2010070600, , BEST, 0, 292N, 911W, 30, 1008, DB,


WTH? No way that's right. That says this was a TD earlier this morning.
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West Houma, light rain, light wind
must of just missed us here havn't gotten 1/4 inch rain yet or it hasn't made it here as of yet.
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Drink enough of that MtDew and u almost don't NEED the beer anymore....
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Quoting hurricanehanna:

don't forget da beer!


Clamato!!!!!
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11557
AL, 95, 2010070512, , BEST, 0, 284N, 909W, 30, 1009, TD,
AL, 95, 2010070518, , BEST, 0, 287N, 910W, 35, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 25,
AL, 95, 2010070600, , BEST, 0, 292N, 911W, 30, 1008, DB,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting btwntx08:
scott copy/paste the bold part on post 31 plz to ike



this yet it go
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Quoting Patrap:


One lone squall was nice @ 4:30 pm then a calm to light breeze. Was good potent squall though.



I hear ya. I must say, I'm rather surprised at how big a punch this thing has for being so small, and embedded within such a stable environment.
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Evening everyone.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting StormW:


I like her!
I agree Storm but no way I could forget that. It would be the 1st thing on the list. Probably the only thing, I have MRE's, plenty of bottled water already. and 350 gal of fuel in the boat for the gen.
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Quoting StormW:


I'd like to see what the forecast shear is once it gets past the Yucatan, but right now, the 18Z run shows 96L may encounter shear on its NE side in about 36 hours, with the upper level pattern only being somewhat conducive...less than the somewhat favorable conditions it has seen. Forecast steering still indicates a Texas event...exactly where is unknown, until it gets into the Gulf, and steering can be reassessed.


Thanks -
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10797
Back again.... after another foray into the nasty weather out... mmmm.... and nothing like a bowl of peas soup and dough (dumplings) to warm u up from the inside out...

BTW, to the former bickerers of Other blogs.... every storm must have its end... even a tempest in a teacup. Let that stormy weather of yesterday remain in the past, and do not let it (like today's Bahamian front) cross and recross you... let it die a natural death....

Words from the soup bowl....
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thanks Dr Carver!
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Quoting Patrap:
Im winded..

LOL


LMAO
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56140
Quoting KoritheMan:


Hey Pat, how have you fared so far with 95L? I was out picking peas in my uncle's garden, and we had a nice squall come through, producing gusts to 20 mph and generating heavy rain. Sure felt nice. Though, the mud was more than I had asked for.

How about you?


One lone squall was nice @ 4:30 pm then a calm to light breeze. Was good potent squall though.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Quoting btwntx08:
scott copy/paste the bold part on post 31 plz to ike


You could try mailing him.
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Quoting hurricanehanna:

don't forget da beer!


Sorry but that would be "MtDew" cause i just
don't drink.... But I will have enough that Pepsi
will not go out of business.... LOL

Taco :o)
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45. Asta
Beautiful rainbow today up here today!
The gentle rains were so refreshing...
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Quoting Patrap:
Wearing and tearing stays in the cue Ike,

..for now


Hey Pat, how have you fared so far with 95L? I was out picking peas in my uncle's garden, and we had a nice squall come through, producing gusts to 20 mph and generating heavy rain. Sure felt nice. Though, the mud was more than I had asked for.

How about you?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Zoomiami - They changed the name of Metro Zoo to your nick here...

Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10797
Conditions just weren't good for 95L to develop - wind shear in the early days & dry air in the later days. Several bloggers on here such as Storm W pointed out that 95L still attached to stationary front as well.

From past years, Dr. Masters said that it usually takes 4 days minimum for a cold core system to transition into a warm core system. Fronts that come off the CONUS just take time to develop. When fronts clear FL, you get a good chance at development over the Bahamas.

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Quoting IKE:
Hang in there 95L...it's the Time of the Season.



oh its offshore now, back up to 60%
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Quoting taco2me61:
ok I'm out for a while....
Need to go get some Hurricane Supplies...
Never know what will be coming this way by the end of the week.


Taco :o)

don't forget da beer!
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Stormw - any new thoughts on 96L?

Stay dry and cool Patrap...
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10797
I think someone let the squirrels in today -- over 5000 comments in about 16 hours -- when I saw the count thought something had developed that I had missed.

The rain in South Florida hasn't stopped -- my feet are soggy. All this without any systems, hate to see what the rains do with a system.

Some seasons the storms are mostly dry, but this year looks to be a big rain maker.

One of the reasons that Andrew wasn't worse than it was is the fact is was basically a dry storm. Can't imagine dealing with the next day in standing flood waters.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ok I'm out for a while....
Need to go get some Hurricane Supplies...
Never know what will be coming this way by the end of the week.


Taco :o)
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btwntx08 .hmm
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Wearing and tearing stays in the cue Ike,

..for now
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
I am here, live in Houma La. 95L Terrebonne Bay, weather is just nasty out. A little thunder and light rain. No different than daily rainstorms .
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yay new blog time too party
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Quoting StormW:


Now that does sound nice! Trade ya!

Nope - I'm keeping it...but come down here and I'll let ya enjoy it! lol
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27. IKE
Hang in there 95L...it's the Time of the Season.

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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
thanks doc carver
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56140
Quoting ajcamsmom2:
Thanks for the update, looking forward to your thoughts on 96L...It's the one that really worries me...

yep, I'm watching 96L as well.
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keeper- message received

aim true

my merciless mercinary
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Quoting key360:
97L

Link


What?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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