Invest 95L Brushes Louisiana Coastline

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:42 AM GMT on July 06, 2010

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Hi all,

Dr. Rob Carver, filling in for Jeff this week.

Midnight CDT Update
The low known as Invest 95L stopped it's northward progression and is now moving west along the Louisiana coastline. This is the oddest mesoscale convective complex/tropical feature I've seen in awhile. It's still producing a lot of rain, 2+ inches inland and 6+ inches over the ocean.


Base reflectivity from Lake Charles, LA at 11PM July 5 showing a very nice comma head. Animated loop.


Invest 95L is making landfall now in southern Louisiana near Terrebonne Bay. A CMAN station in Terrebonne Bay is currently reporting winds from the SE at 21 mph and the pressure is 1009 mb. Looking at the radar data, Invest 95L never had convection around the center of circulation. Also, it was hard to see a distinct surface circulation in the different analyses available. I believe soaking rains for southern Lousisana are going to be Invest 95L's main legacy. It's already produced 5+ inches of rain in some offshore locations according to radar-derived rainfall estimates.


Fig. 1 Meteogram for TRBL1 in Terrebonne Bay, LA. Tabular data are here.


Fig. 2 Base reflectivity from New Orleans, LA at 706PM, July 5. Animated loop.

Invest 96L
430 AM Update
In sum, the 00Z model runs don't present a different picture. It is curious to note that the Canadian Global model does not intensify 96L at all in the 00Z run, while NOGAPS has shifted towards a SE Louisiana landfall. I think the following discussion is still valid.

96L is going to be an interesting feature to forecast. It's still on the edge of a strong wind shear gradient. 40+ knots of shear are on the NE side of 96L, and <10 knots are on the SW side. The "center" of 96L is under about 15 knots of shear. This is likely inhibiting 96L. Nearly all forecast models take 96L NW through the Yucatan peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico. Near the Yucatan itself, sea-surface temperatures are relatively cool, not the best environment for intensification. However, at 25N, 87W there is a hotspot of SST's, which would promote rapid intensification. However, there's currently 20 knots of shear over the hotspot, so the thunderstorms that do form as a result will be well ventilated, and not cause 96L to intensify.

The dynamical models have different takes on how 96L intensifies in the next 120 hours. The 18Z operational GFS strongly intensifies 96L over the hotspot and takes 96L towards Grand Isle, LA. The parallel (for testing model configuration changes) GFS has a similar track, but does not strengthen 96L as much. This indicates uncertainty on how the models are handling the upper-level winds.

The 18Z HWRF solution is much like the parallel GFS solution. The 12Z Canadian global model has a more westerly track, pushing 96L towards Port Arthur, but it strengthens 96L right before it makes landfall, not when it's over open water. NOGAPS takes the "a little from column A, a little from column B" approach, with a spinup over the hotspot (op. GFS solution), but a westerly landfall (the Canadian solution). More data to initialize the models from synoptic reconnaissance flights will help reduce uncertainty.

The bottom line, 96L will move into the Gulf of Mexico and is then shrouded by the mists of uncertainty. I also think that it's a possibility (>50%) that it will become a tropical cyclone sometime in the next 48-72 hours (leaning towards sometime in day 2-3 based on the model runs.)


Fig. 3 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 GFS model run.Parallel GFS version.


Fig. 4 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 HWRF model run.


Fig. 5 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 12Z July 5 CMC global model run.NOGAPS wind swath.

Next update
I'll probably tweak this blog later tonight as new model runs come in. I'll have a full update tomorrow afternoon (Pacific time).

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Quoting IKE:


They get a D+ grade from me on 95L. They did a very good job on Alex, but not on TD2.


I agree, this should have been classified a TD, the convection wasn't deep, but the circulation was indeed tight. Reminds me of 90L from last year in May.
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119. IKE
Quoting GreenMe2225:
this blog reminds me of a turn of the century burlesque show, full of toothless fat old men with pockets full of putrid vegetables. cat calling howls and anti social behavior galore. most of you should absolutely be ashamed but that would require not being either addicted to the point of insanty of some primitive form of conscience which is not available to you de evolved humans. most of you here are a bunch of worthless louts with no life and no shame.


Tell us how you really feel.
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First reports of oil in Lake Pontchartrain

For the first time since oil began gushing into the Gulf of Mexico, small tar balls have been spotted in the far eastern portion of Lake Pontchartrain.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
There was no official word from the NHC stating it was a tropical depression, and on top of that there wasn't any renumber. Keep in mind ATCF data is unofficial.


Also appearances tell me this was in no way a TD or TS, but who knows anymore

I am almost expecting the NHC to come out with a new special TWO lol
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
74. We had a heck of squall in Lake Worth today. Limbs down on trees, flooded roads.
Yeah, this sounds like a local report... prolly midday, midafternoonish? We got another "blowthrough" about 6 p.m....

And looks like we're stuck with this kind of weather for much of the rest of the week, if this pans out...

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Quoting IKE:


They get a D+ grade from me on 95L. They did a very good job on Alex, but not on TD2.
They were very inconsistent all around. Honestly StormW did 10 times better forecasting 95L.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21098
TD is a technicality. It really was too close to the coast to call imo.
They'd been following it for days so everybody knew about it.
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Evening everyone! Does anyone have a link to a good lightning tracker for Fl.?
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The news tomorrow will be how 95L has pushed oil much further into the marshes of Louisiana.
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Quoting zoomiami:


Saw that -- now people are really going to think I having something to do with the zoo. Actually - the nickname is because our home has always been called the "zoo crew". Its even embroidered on our tree skirt at Christmas. lol


LOL...
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10065
Quoting Tazmanian:
yes it was a TD

AL, 95, 2010070512, , BEST, 0, 284N, 909W, 30, 1009, TD


but look at this


AL, 95, 2010070518, , BEST, 0, 287N, 910W, 35, 1008, DB
There was no official word from the NHC stating it was a tropical depression, and on top of that there wasn't any renumber. Keep in mind ATCF data is unofficial.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21098
00z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest96
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)



Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Early Model Wind Forecast
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
106. IKE
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
They might release a "9:10 PM Special Tropical Weather Outlook" and bump up 95L to a 60% again.


They get a D+ grade from me on 95L. They did a very good job on Alex, but not on TD2.
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Looks like a smooth ride NNW too.
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104. JLPR2
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
They might release a "9:10 PM Special Tropical Weather Outlook" and bump up 95L to a 60% again.


If they do that I'll probably have some sort of nervous breakdown LOL!
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8642
Quoting txag91met:

I think 96L will go more west, as the ridge north builds and pushes west like the Euro suggests...I think 96L will end up closer to the Texas coast.


And it will likely still be invest 97L still the way its been acting.
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Storm the moisture left behind from 95l,will it be a factor that 96l will play into?
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A center relocation albeit larger in Vermillion Bay looks like
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
yes it was a TD

AL, 95, 2010070512, , BEST, 0, 284N, 909W, 30, 1009, TD


but look at this


AL, 95, 2010070518, , BEST, 0, 287N, 910W, 35, 1008, DB
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114914
Quoting msgambler:
2 out of 3 ain't bad..I can't leave, I'm with the fire dept.


Well - Hopefully you have a Cat 5 building to go to...

Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10065
Quoting IKE:
Memo to NHC...95L/TD2, is back out over water......

They might release a "9:10 PM Special Tropical Weather Outlook" and bump up 95L to a 60% again.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21098
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
CIMSS finally updated their winds and analysis page. One thing to note is that the strongest 850mb vorticity associated with 96L is in the northern quadrant.BR
Yeah, was just looking at that. Organization looks better too.
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Quoting Dakster:
Zoomiami - They changed the name of Metro Zoo to your nick here...



Saw that -- now people are really going to think I having something to do with the zoo. Actually - the nickname is because our home has always been called the "zoo crew". Its even embroidered on our tree skirt at Christmas. lol
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CIMSS finally updated their winds and analysis page. One thing to note is that the strongest 850mb vorticity associated with 96L is in the northern quadrant.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21098
Quoting Dakster:


I see you know when to hold 'em,know when to fold 'em, and know when to get the heck out of town!

2 out of 3 ain't bad..I can't leave, I'm with the fire dept.
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93. IKE
Memo to NHC...95L/TD2, is back out over water......

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Quoting Patrap:
The 95L Squall Uptown at 4:30Local CDT

Pat, it was raining / gusting harder than that over New Providence on my way home this evening.... quite a bit of small branch / leaf debris, some localized flooding and occasional torrential downpours along the way.
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Quoting MechEngMet:
Good evening to all, Storm, Ike, Levi, Pat, Et-al. That band of 95L passed through my area at 4:30 lcl. (I'm in 70002). Some prety stron gusts followed by about an inch of rain. Fairly calm after...

Anxiously awaiting 96L. What are the 00Z models gonna look like?

Tonight's libation is Bourbon Rocks. Gentlemen the drinking lamp is lit.

I think 96L will go more west, as the ridge north builds and pushes west like the Euro suggests...I think 96L will end up closer to the Texas coast.
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Quoting msgambler:
LOL I don't gamble when it comes to storms. Been on the coast all my life so I know better.


I see you know when to hold 'em,know when to fold 'em, and know when to get the heck out of town!

Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10065
Quoting MechEngMet:
Good evening to all, Storm, Ike, Levi, Pat, Et-al. That band of 95L passed through my area at 4:30 lcl. (I'm in 70002). Some prety stron gusts followed by about an inch of rain. Fairly calm after...

Anxiously awaiting 96L. What are the 00Z models gonna look like?

Tonight's libation is Bourbon Rocks. Gentlemen the drinking lamp is lit.


Evening..


sip,

..ahhhhhh
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
95L seems to have bounced off Terrebonne Bay.

Now it looks almost due South or SSE of Vermilion Bay
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96LShortwaveLoop

Anyway, all this eating and taking it easy has me exhausted! Goonight.
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74. We had a heck of squall in Lake Worth today. Limbs down on trees, flooded roads.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11099
Good evening to all, Storm, Ike, Levi, Pat, Et-al. That band of 95L passed through my area at 4:30 lcl. (I'm in 70002). Some prety stron gusts followed by about an inch of rain. Fairly calm after...

Anxiously awaiting 96L. What are the 00Z models gonna look like?

Tonight's libation is Bourbon Rocks. Gentlemen the drinking lamp is lit.
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guys i found this in there has well

Quoting Tazmanian:
AL, 95, 2010070518, , BEST, 0, 287N, 910W, 35, 1008, DB,
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114914
Quoting LightningCharmer:
Don't sound like much of gambler to me. More like a boy scout, always prepared.
LOL I don't gamble when it comes to storms. Been on the coast all my life so I know better.
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Hey. That 'new blog' button WORKED!!
On that note... I'm out
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Quoting msgambler:
I agree Storm but no way I could forget that. It would be the 1st thing on the list. Probably the only thing, I have MRE's, plenty of bottled water already. and 350 gal of fuel in the boat for the gen.
Don't sound like much of gambler to me. More like a boy scout, always prepared.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


WTH?
It's true:

AL, 95, 2010070512, , BEST, 0, 284N, 909W, 30, 1009, TD,

Doesn't matter anymore but yes.

Link: invest_al952010.invest

There was never a renumber either.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21098
Quoting GainesvilleGator:
Conditions just weren't good for 95L to develop - wind shear in the early days & dry air in the later days. Several bloggers on here such as Storm W pointed out that 95L still attached to stationary front as well.

From past years, Dr. Masters said that it usually takes 4 days minimum for a cold core system to transition into a warm core system. Fronts that come off the CONUS just take time to develop. When fronts clear FL, you get a good chance at development over the Bahamas.

Or just east / north of us. Gulf Stream heating is often a key component.
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The 95L Squall Uptown at 4:30Local CDT

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
AL, 95, 2010070518, , BEST, 0, 287N, 910W, 35, 1008, DB,
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114914
Quoting TxWxFan:
AL, 95, 2010070512, , BEST, 0, 284N, 909W, 30, 1009, TD,
AL, 95, 2010070518, , BEST, 0, 287N, 910W, 35, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 25,
AL, 95, 2010070600, , BEST, 0, 292N, 911W, 30, 1008, DB,


interesting
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It does look like shear has relaxed considerably across the Caribbean basin.


Getting the feeling of calm before the storm.

CaribWVLoop
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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