Invest 95L Brushes Louisiana Coastline

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:42 AM GMT on July 06, 2010

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Hi all,

Dr. Rob Carver, filling in for Jeff this week.

Midnight CDT Update
The low known as Invest 95L stopped it's northward progression and is now moving west along the Louisiana coastline. This is the oddest mesoscale convective complex/tropical feature I've seen in awhile. It's still producing a lot of rain, 2+ inches inland and 6+ inches over the ocean.


Base reflectivity from Lake Charles, LA at 11PM July 5 showing a very nice comma head. Animated loop.


Invest 95L is making landfall now in southern Louisiana near Terrebonne Bay. A CMAN station in Terrebonne Bay is currently reporting winds from the SE at 21 mph and the pressure is 1009 mb. Looking at the radar data, Invest 95L never had convection around the center of circulation. Also, it was hard to see a distinct surface circulation in the different analyses available. I believe soaking rains for southern Lousisana are going to be Invest 95L's main legacy. It's already produced 5+ inches of rain in some offshore locations according to radar-derived rainfall estimates.


Fig. 1 Meteogram for TRBL1 in Terrebonne Bay, LA. Tabular data are here.


Fig. 2 Base reflectivity from New Orleans, LA at 706PM, July 5. Animated loop.

Invest 96L
430 AM Update
In sum, the 00Z model runs don't present a different picture. It is curious to note that the Canadian Global model does not intensify 96L at all in the 00Z run, while NOGAPS has shifted towards a SE Louisiana landfall. I think the following discussion is still valid.

96L is going to be an interesting feature to forecast. It's still on the edge of a strong wind shear gradient. 40+ knots of shear are on the NE side of 96L, and <10 knots are on the SW side. The "center" of 96L is under about 15 knots of shear. This is likely inhibiting 96L. Nearly all forecast models take 96L NW through the Yucatan peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico. Near the Yucatan itself, sea-surface temperatures are relatively cool, not the best environment for intensification. However, at 25N, 87W there is a hotspot of SST's, which would promote rapid intensification. However, there's currently 20 knots of shear over the hotspot, so the thunderstorms that do form as a result will be well ventilated, and not cause 96L to intensify.

The dynamical models have different takes on how 96L intensifies in the next 120 hours. The 18Z operational GFS strongly intensifies 96L over the hotspot and takes 96L towards Grand Isle, LA. The parallel (for testing model configuration changes) GFS has a similar track, but does not strengthen 96L as much. This indicates uncertainty on how the models are handling the upper-level winds.

The 18Z HWRF solution is much like the parallel GFS solution. The 12Z Canadian global model has a more westerly track, pushing 96L towards Port Arthur, but it strengthens 96L right before it makes landfall, not when it's over open water. NOGAPS takes the "a little from column A, a little from column B" approach, with a spinup over the hotspot (op. GFS solution), but a westerly landfall (the Canadian solution). More data to initialize the models from synoptic reconnaissance flights will help reduce uncertainty.

The bottom line, 96L will move into the Gulf of Mexico and is then shrouded by the mists of uncertainty. I also think that it's a possibility (>50%) that it will become a tropical cyclone sometime in the next 48-72 hours (leaning towards sometime in day 2-3 based on the model runs.)


Fig. 3 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 GFS model run.Parallel GFS version.


Fig. 4 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 HWRF model run.


Fig. 5 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 12Z July 5 CMC global model run.NOGAPS wind swath.

Next update
I'll probably tweak this blog later tonight as new model runs come in. I'll have a full update tomorrow afternoon (Pacific time).

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Quoting StormW:


I'd like to see what the forecast shear is once it gets past the Yucatan, but right now, the 18Z run shows 96L may encounter shear on its NE side in about 36 hours, with the upper level pattern only being somewhat conducive...less than the somewhat favorable conditions it has seen. Forecast steering still indicates a Texas event...exactly where is unknown, until it gets into the Gulf, and steering can be reassessed. This would be the upper pattern as it enters the central Gulf.



That looks like a big improvement compared to the 00Z you posted. Southerly shear was running to 40 knots, now what, 20 or less? Steering, other than that shear, I have not been following. But losing that shear may open a door?
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1269
Quoting AussieStorm:

Thank you for joining us, and enjoy your stay.
Good Morning all.
LOL.... g'morning... Did I tell u I just finished reading Nevil Shute's "On the Beach"? It was pretty interesting from a meteorological point of view, and it also reminded me that it does get pretty nasty sometimes down in the Melbourne area... one tends to think of all Oz surfing year-round...
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Anybody up for a discussion about what happened today with the NHC FLIP_FLOP on 95L?
.
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I think the problem here may be the presentation of the yellow-orange-red colors. In the old days:) pre-colors....the NHC would simply come out with a special statement, as they did today, describing current and future weather conditions. And they'd have another statement tonight if necessary. That would suffice. It would convey to the public what was going on. End of story.
.
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When you throw the colors into the mix, it adds to the confusion instead of bringing more clarity. We saw that today. And here we have people who know something about meteorology in disagreement and confusion. Think about what the public is thinking. Can you tell I'm not a fan of the colors? They need to go away. They came about after and likely as a result of the goverments terror alert levels and colors. Another bad idea which caused confusion and some panic. And was also used politically, but that's another story.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5612
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
by the way I just looked at the steering and it is getting weaking fast so I would not be surprised if 96L stalls and moves SE I really would not


Where would that take it in the short and long run?
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11282
Quoting reedzone:


This didn't get organized till an hour AFTER the special tropical outlook, in my opinion. The circulation got more defined around 6 p.m. A few more hours in the water should of made the classification, but it was too late.

Regardless, 95L never acquired good satellite presentation with most cloud tops being in the -40˚C to -50˚C degree threshold. So, If you classify 96L as a tropical depression, you will have to classify 90L as a subtropical storm.
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LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT AS A SMALL BUT WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. SOME OF THE SQUALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NEAR-
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128749
Good evening Reed-Z. She's (95L/TD2) still in the water. Do you think a few more hours will make the difference now?
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Evening Baha
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You can almost see how the circulation being sheared and is tilted. Top being NE to the SW.
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Link

I suspect a littel further to the east in
T-48 h even though the cmc is right about on track with the models.I think the trof will open and the ridge that is supposed to build in is going to be a littel weak. my thoughts any way
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by the way I just looked at the steering and it is getting weaking fast so I would not be surprised if 96L stalls and moves SE I really would not
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12164
Oooh..



a New Graphic with a L




weather.gov
National Weather Service

Watches, Warnings & Advisories
Go to the NOAA Homepage
NWS Homepage
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code

2 products issued by NWS for: 41NM SSW Houma LA
Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
816 PM CDT MON JUL 5 2010

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>040-
046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-070130-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-
TANGIPAHOA-WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-
ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-
PEARL RIVER-HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
816 PM CDT MON JUL 5 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL WATERS
OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT AS A SMALL BUT WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. SOME OF THE SQUALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NEAR-
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR HANCOCK COUNTY TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL RESULT IN TIDES THAT ARE 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. THE
HIGHEST TIDES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST...A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MARINE...
WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEAR SHORE
GULF COASTAL WATERS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THUNDERSTORMS...
A TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF TOWARD MIDWEEK. THIS LOW
WILL TRANSPORT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...RESULTING IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY
RAINS...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF
PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD-TO- GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

LATER IN THE WEEK...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN MARINE
ZONES STARTING TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. SEAS WILL PEAK 5 TO 8
FEET ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

$$

95/DM




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128749
Good morning Aussie.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


90L was much more organized than this ever was, disagree


This didn't get organized till an hour AFTER the special tropical outlook, in my opinion. The circulation got more defined around 6 p.m. A few more hours in the water should of made the classification, but it was too late.

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Quoting zoomiami:
Evening Baha -- see you have the rainy days too.

My daughter was talking today about how strange the weather has been -- she doesn't ever remember seeing so much rain that lasted for long periods of time.

Today's rain was like being up north - very dull, gloomy, and continuous. Not the normal sea breeze blow through and be gone.

Interesting point to thunderstorms here -- in a matter of minutes the temps went from 89 to 73.
Hey, zoo, long time no talk to.... ur daughter prolly is noticing it because we don't normally get this kind of rain in July... I'm really used to sunny Independence Day (4th AND 10th) so it seems weird to be having all this overcast, drippy weather. And on top of all that, one doesn't even get a permanent yellow circle overhead to make it exciting... lol
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112

Sounds like he has been hit in the head with too many flying 2x4s
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95L is back off-shore. Difficult to determine from radar if the center re-located, or if it just moved.

How far will she skim the coast? How much more oil will she draw north and West? Will she prime a path for 96L? What new pattern of storm deflecting shower curtains are all the rage in S-FL? All these questions and more will be answered on the next exciting episode of As the Blog Churns.

Welcome to Wunderground Happy Hour.
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Quoting will45:


Im trying to figure out why he is here with us low lifes lol
"imitation is the greatest form of flattery" I suppose.
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Quoting lparky:


Pat, I am sure it was mentioned in the last blog, but they also found some tar balls in Galveston earlier today.


saw that..sad realities setting in.

I may go to Venice,La. in the morning with a friend to get some B-roll and inquire as to a few things there.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128749
The anticyclone associated with 96L has weakened some. Shear over the system is in the 20-30 knot range with just the NW quadrant receiving 5-10 knot shear. If you click the image you will be automatically redirected to the CIMSS site.

*Also note that the wind shear map can be deceiving, sometimes it is best to use the "Upper Level Winds" tab on the CIMSS site.

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Quoting IKE:


Tell us how you really feel.


Im trying to figure out why he is here with us low lifes lol
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95L showing up on Lake Charles radar now
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Quoting GreenMe2225:
this blog reminds me of a turn of the century burlesque show, full of toothless fat old men with pockets full of putrid vegetables. cat calling howls and anti social behavior galore. most of you should absolutely be ashamed but that would require not being either addicted to the point of insanity of some primitive form of conscience which is not available to you de-evolved humans. most of you here are a bunch of worthless louts with no life and no shame.

Thank you for joining us, and enjoy your stay.
Good Morning all.
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Quoting Patrap:


First reports of oil in Lake Pontchartrain

For the first time since oil began gushing into the Gulf of Mexico, small tar balls have been spotted in the far eastern portion of Lake Pontchartrain.


Pat, I am sure it was mentioned in the last blog, but they also found some tar balls in Galveston earlier today.
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112. GreenMe2225 9:15 PM EDT on July 05, 2010

And your point is???

And rather impolite of you... you did not even say "good evening" first....
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I went to a church on Sunday where the choir sang "Joy in the Morning." In the twilight now and haven't reached the blackest worst time, it's still coming, yet there is joy in the morning if you can hang on that long.

Next order of business is to flush away the negativity.
I feel so much better...
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Quoting MechEngMet:
Good evening to all, Storm, Ike, Levi, Pat, Et-al. That band of 95L passed through my area at 4:30 lcl. (I'm in 70002). Some prety stron gusts followed by about an inch of rain. Fairly calm after...

Anxiously awaiting 96L. What are the 00Z models gonna look like?

Tonight's libation is Bourbon Rocks. Gentlemen the drinking lamp is lit.
A glass of red wine with a chaser here after a long day. It's getting smoky here as well. Apparantly my city had some leftover fireworks after the rainout yesterday and they're putting on a nice show right now. The models, as many have rightfully said, will have a better handle once they settle on a distinct coc.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5612
Quoting lparky:



Sorry, gotta come out of lurking to ask: How many of those turn of the century shows did you witness???


You know who his avatar is?
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11282
Evening Baha -- see you have the rainy days too.

My daughter was talking today about how strange the weather has been -- she doesn't ever remember seeing so much rain that lasted for long periods of time.

Today's rain was like being up north - very dull, gloomy, and continuous. Not the normal sea breeze blow through and be gone.

Interesting point to thunderstorms here -- in a matter of minutes the temps went from 89 to 73.
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Quoting ElConando:
The strange times of 95L


What about the Fast Times of 96L?
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10480
The Initial points always change.

Cuz its always updated to the new runs starting point.

Thats why the White or silver Origin Points change,

When folks say the models are off cuz the intial is off..


I just chuckle.

Then post the NHC Model Overview.

Its worth the read.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128749
Quoting Patrap:
00z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest96
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)



Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Early Model Wind Forecast


we got to wait till passage over the yuc
happy it did not close off yesterday
this one will in all likly hood
get close to TS strengh
once over GOM in the next 14 to 18 hrs
from now and heavy rain will be major concearn if dev is limited to TS conditions we wait watch see as always
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54479
Quoting Patrap:


First reports of oil in Lake Pontchartrain

For the first time since oil began gushing into the Gulf of Mexico, small tar balls have been spotted in the far eastern portion of Lake Pontchartrain.


Oh man Patrap - that is HORRIBLE news....

Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10480
Quoting GreenMe2225:
this blog reminds me of a turn of the century burlesque show, full of toothless fat old men with pockets full of putrid vegetables. cat calling howls and anti social behavior galore. most of you should absolutely be ashamed but that would require not being either addicted to the point of insanty of some primitive form of conscience which is not available to you de evolved humans. most of you here are a bunch of worthless louts with no life and no shame.



Sorry, gotta come out of lurking to ask: How many of those turn of the century shows did you witness???
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Quoting PensacolaBuoy:
The news tomorrow will be how 95L has pushed oil much further into the marshes of Louisiana.

Unfortunately, yes. And life is choked out of the marshes. And ;the stench makes people sick. Everything is awful and there is no relief in sight.
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Did Dr. Rob even look at 95L? He said it never had a closed circulation. What you gonna believe? You're lying eyes or Dr. Rob?
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The strange times of 95L
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
CIMSS finally updated their winds and analysis page. One thing to note is that the strongest 850mb vorticity associated with 96L is in the northern quadrant.

Also of note is the increased vorticity of the trough area east of Abaco Island in the Bahamas. That's the best it's been since the front stalled out here... Thanks for the post.
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Thank you.
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Single for Pat and a Double for Storm; got it.

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Quoting txag91met:

I think 96L will go more west, as the ridge north builds and pushes west like the Euro suggests...I think 96L will end up closer to the Texas coast.


What do you mean by Texas coast? ;) That's from Mexico to LA.
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Quoting reedzone:


I agree, this should have been classified a TD, the convection wasn't deep, but the circulation was indeed tight. Reminds me of 90L from last year in May.


90L was much more organized than this ever was, disagree
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112 Your Point?
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95l is a mute point now. Its all but gone. Can we please stop the posting of it.
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Quoting PensacolaBuoy:
The news tomorrow will be how 95L has pushed oil much further into the marshes of Louisiana.


absolutely -- and I think that fact has gotten lost in all the weather related talk. The effects of the oil spill is one of the reasons that there was special interest in this area to begin with.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


Also appearances tell me this was in no way a TD or TS, but who knows anymore

I am almost expecting the NHC to come out with a new special TWO lol
LOL. It never really looked like a tropical depression on satellite. Organization was lacking.
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Quoting IKE:


They get a D+ grade from me on 95L. They did a very good job on Alex, but not on TD2.


I agree, this should have been classified a TD, the convection wasn't deep, but the circulation was indeed tight. Reminds me of 90L from last year in May.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.