Invest 95L Brushes Louisiana Coastline

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:42 AM GMT on July 06, 2010

Share this Blog
3
+

Hi all,

Dr. Rob Carver, filling in for Jeff this week.

Midnight CDT Update
The low known as Invest 95L stopped it's northward progression and is now moving west along the Louisiana coastline. This is the oddest mesoscale convective complex/tropical feature I've seen in awhile. It's still producing a lot of rain, 2+ inches inland and 6+ inches over the ocean.


Base reflectivity from Lake Charles, LA at 11PM July 5 showing a very nice comma head. Animated loop.


Invest 95L is making landfall now in southern Louisiana near Terrebonne Bay. A CMAN station in Terrebonne Bay is currently reporting winds from the SE at 21 mph and the pressure is 1009 mb. Looking at the radar data, Invest 95L never had convection around the center of circulation. Also, it was hard to see a distinct surface circulation in the different analyses available. I believe soaking rains for southern Lousisana are going to be Invest 95L's main legacy. It's already produced 5+ inches of rain in some offshore locations according to radar-derived rainfall estimates.


Fig. 1 Meteogram for TRBL1 in Terrebonne Bay, LA. Tabular data are here.


Fig. 2 Base reflectivity from New Orleans, LA at 706PM, July 5. Animated loop.

Invest 96L
430 AM Update
In sum, the 00Z model runs don't present a different picture. It is curious to note that the Canadian Global model does not intensify 96L at all in the 00Z run, while NOGAPS has shifted towards a SE Louisiana landfall. I think the following discussion is still valid.

96L is going to be an interesting feature to forecast. It's still on the edge of a strong wind shear gradient. 40+ knots of shear are on the NE side of 96L, and <10 knots are on the SW side. The "center" of 96L is under about 15 knots of shear. This is likely inhibiting 96L. Nearly all forecast models take 96L NW through the Yucatan peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico. Near the Yucatan itself, sea-surface temperatures are relatively cool, not the best environment for intensification. However, at 25N, 87W there is a hotspot of SST's, which would promote rapid intensification. However, there's currently 20 knots of shear over the hotspot, so the thunderstorms that do form as a result will be well ventilated, and not cause 96L to intensify.

The dynamical models have different takes on how 96L intensifies in the next 120 hours. The 18Z operational GFS strongly intensifies 96L over the hotspot and takes 96L towards Grand Isle, LA. The parallel (for testing model configuration changes) GFS has a similar track, but does not strengthen 96L as much. This indicates uncertainty on how the models are handling the upper-level winds.

The 18Z HWRF solution is much like the parallel GFS solution. The 12Z Canadian global model has a more westerly track, pushing 96L towards Port Arthur, but it strengthens 96L right before it makes landfall, not when it's over open water. NOGAPS takes the "a little from column A, a little from column B" approach, with a spinup over the hotspot (op. GFS solution), but a westerly landfall (the Canadian solution). More data to initialize the models from synoptic reconnaissance flights will help reduce uncertainty.

The bottom line, 96L will move into the Gulf of Mexico and is then shrouded by the mists of uncertainty. I also think that it's a possibility (>50%) that it will become a tropical cyclone sometime in the next 48-72 hours (leaning towards sometime in day 2-3 based on the model runs.)


Fig. 3 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 GFS model run.Parallel GFS version.


Fig. 4 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 HWRF model run.


Fig. 5 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 12Z July 5 CMC global model run.NOGAPS wind swath.

Next update
I'll probably tweak this blog later tonight as new model runs come in. I'll have a full update tomorrow afternoon (Pacific time).

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

Sign In or Register Sign In or Register

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 220 - 170

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43Blog Index

I am having difficulty replying to a quote, Sorry
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
199: Tell the NHC to go look at the radar. By the way, you could go take a look too. The COC is clearly off shore again, and moving roughly West. Hard to see if it's moving slightly north or slightly south of due west.

Go look at the radar and then get back to me.

Personally I don't care what the NHC says. I rely on me and me alone to prepare for storms, (Storms of all types). The Fed-Gov has a very poor track record down south right now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
CONGRATS STORMPETROL YOU FOUND IT I SEE IT TWO YOU KNOW WHAT I SEE THREE ALL LINED UP ON THE LAT LINE AND AT 86.6W NOT MOVING, 85.3W MOVING NE, AND THE OTHER AT 84.5W GOOD JOB

oops sorry for caps


Then why didn't you change it to lower case? You are the JFV of the Caymans! My first poof of the season.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11686
Quoting muddertracker:
Mimic, anyone? I can't find my link. tia
This? If you click the image it'll take you straight to the link.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
sorry I forgot the movement on the last one it moving nearly still to the ENE
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
From everything I'm seeing, the COC of Alex is located just to the west of the western tip of Cuba.


?

Edit: Eh?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I am not fat :) Good evening to all
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GreenMe2225:
this blog reminds me of a turn of the century burlesque show, full of toothless fat old men with pockets full of putrid vegetables. cat calling howls and anti social behavior galore. most of you should absolutely be ashamed but that would require not being either addicted to the point of insanty of some primitive form of conscience which is not available to you de evolved humans. most of you here are a bunch of worthless louts with no life and no shame.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
From everything I'm seeing, the COC of 96L is located just to the west of the western tip of Cuba.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Mimic, anyone? I can't find my link. tia
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2353
Link

Glad this was no major.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting angiest:


Have they already been analyzed and shown to be from DWH? As I recall, I've seen the odd tarball on Galveston before.

Yup, verified.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
CONGRATS STORMPETROL YOU FOUND IT I SEE IT TWO YOU KNOW WHAT I SEE THREE ALL LINED UP ON THE LAT LINE AND AT 86.6W NOT MOVING, 85.3W MOVING NE, AND THE OTHER AT 84.5W GOOD JOB

oops sorry for caps
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to check out 96L is organization warrants. IMO, they will likely not go out tomorrow.

000
NOUS42 KNHC 051415
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT MON 05 JULY 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z JULY 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-035

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 06/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 06/1615Z
D. 24.5N 89.5W
E. 06/1715Z TO 06/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 07/0600, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 07/0345Z
D. 26.5N 91.5W
E. 07/0415Z TO 07/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE 3-HRLY FIXES
BEGINNING AT 07/1500Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARK: TASKING FOR 05/1800Z CANCELED BY NHC
AT 05/1140Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting tropics21:
acording to the NHC the low center has moved onshore now yellow with no intensification expected as the low moves further inland


according to the radar, the center is offshore..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:
Night all!

Mornin'
How's your part of this small blue planet 3rd from the fire-ball.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Night storm. Good idea as the blog is rather boring ATM.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Red wine (a nice Cab) for Taco and MGmom. More Sangria for H.Hanna. Wow this WU-happy hour is turning into real party.

(G-night Chief)

I'd like a really well defined COC in 96L for the models to chew on, but for now I like the steering layer analysis you guys are discussing.
Could be anywhere from Gulfport to Corpus for now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MechEngMet:
95L is back off-shore. Difficult to determine from radar if the center re-located, or if it just moved.

How far will she skim the coast? How much more oil will she draw north and West? Will she prime a path for 96L? What new pattern of storm deflecting shower curtains are all the rage in S-FL? All these questions and more will be answered on the next exciting episode of As the Blog Churns.

Welcome to Wunderground Happy Hour.
acording to the NHC the low center has moved onshore now yellow with no intensification expected as the low moves further inland
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting midgulfmom:
Evenin'. Wow..lots of action in the peanut gallery! I'm wih Taco. Red wine but no chaser. Yep, tar balls in Galveston now and they are mystified as to how that can be! REALLY!


Have they already been analyzed and shown to be from DWH? As I recall, I've seen the odd tarball on Galveston before.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Link

recon it didn't like the gumbo
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Anybody up for a discussion about what happened today with the NHC FLIP_FLOP on 95L?
.
.
I think the problem here may be the presentation of the yellow-orange-red colors. In the old days:) pre-colors....the NHC would simply come out with a special statement, as they did today, describing current and future weather conditions. And they'd have another statement tonight if necessary. That would suffice. It would convey to the public what was going on. End of story.
.
.
When you throw the colors into the mix, it adds to the confusion instead of bringing more clarity. We saw that today. And here we have people who know something about meteorology in disagreement and confusion. Think about what the public is thinking. Can you tell I'm not a fan of the colors? They need to go away. They came about after and likely as a result of the goverments terror alert levels and colors. Another bad idea which caused confusion and some panic. And was also used politically, but that's another story.



Good points, Cosmic. In the old days, not too terribly long ago, the NHC would have labeled it a TD, and it would have also called Alex a TD sooner than it did.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just checking in... Are we still looking at a Thursday arrival for 96L?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:
Night all!
Evening Storm.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2353
Quoting GreenMe2225:
this blog reminds me of a turn of the century burlesque show, full of toothless fat old men with pockets full of putrid vegetables. cat calling howls and anti social behavior galore. most of you should absolutely be ashamed but that would require not being either addicted to the point of insanty of some primitive form of conscience which is not available to you de evolved humans. most of you here are a bunch of worthless louts with no life and no shame.

Like the style. Needs a little editing. Makes some good points. Where did you find that Ike?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
man, I leave to go outside enjoy the breeze and a bottle of sangria and 3 pages go flying by....wow!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Evenin'. Wow..lots of action in the peanut gallery! I'm wih Taco. Red wine but no chaser. Yep, tar balls in Galveston now and they are mystified as to how that can be! REALLY!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BRB
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Another weird thing I noticed about 96L it has switched convection from east to west, last night it was on east side, tonight it is on the west usually the complete opposite of developing tropical systems, this also makes me believe the center is further east and south .
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Nope...
Been very dry
we've been a "dry slot" I guess
It's such unusual weather for this time of year... makes one wonder what August will bring....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
You're right, shallow layer steering currents have weakened some. I do not expect stalling or SE drifting though.

Here's the link if you're interested: Layer Mean Wind Analysis

00:00 UTC shallow layer steering:



18:00 UTC shallow layer steering:



Looks like a shift to the right for the models if this holds true.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
by the way I just looked at the steering and it is getting weaking fast so I would not be surprised if 96L stalls and moves SE I really would not
You're right, shallow layer steering currents have weakened some. I do not expect stalling or SE drifting though.

Here's the link if you're interested: Layer Mean Wind Analysis

00:00 UTC shallow layer steering:



18:00 UTC shallow layer steering:

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Seastep:
Good morning Aussie.

Good Morning... just.

Quoting BahaHurican:
LOL.... g'morning... Did I tell u I just finished reading Nevil Shute's "On the Beach"? It was pretty interesting from a meteorological point of view, and it also reminded me that it does get pretty nasty sometimes down in the Melbourne area... one tends to think of all Oz surfing year-round...


Good morning. Yep Melbourne get's some nasty weather. There is a saying here in Australia referring to Melbourne.... If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes. Also, Melbourne, a city that can have 4 seasons in 1 day.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
180. xcool
WHXX01 KWBC 060100
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0100 UTC TUE JUL 6 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962010) 20100706 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100706 0000 100706 1200 100707 0000 100707 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.6N 86.1W 21.3N 87.8W 23.1N 89.6W 24.7N 91.4W
BAMD 19.6N 86.1W 20.6N 87.1W 21.7N 88.3W 22.6N 89.5W
BAMM 19.6N 86.1W 20.9N 87.3W 22.3N 88.7W 23.6N 90.3W
LBAR 19.6N 86.1W 20.9N 87.4W 22.4N 89.1W 23.9N 90.9W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS 44KTS
DSHP 30KTS 30KTS 35KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100708 0000 100709 0000 100710 0000 100711 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 26.2N 93.4W 28.4N 96.9W 29.8N 99.7W 30.7N 102.2W
BAMD 23.3N 91.1W 24.5N 94.7W 25.3N 98.4W 26.0N 102.9W
BAMM 24.8N 92.1W 26.8N 95.8W 28.2N 98.9W 29.2N 101.7W
LBAR 25.4N 92.8W 27.9N 95.8W 29.5N 97.9W 30.3N 98.7W
SHIP 49KTS 57KTS 62KTS 59KTS
DSHP 43KTS 51KTS 33KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.6N LONCUR = 86.1W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 18.2N LONM12 = 84.6W DIRM12 = 312DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 16.8N LONM24 = 83.1W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Nope...
Been very dry
we've been a "dry slot" I guess
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
112

Sounds like he has been hit in the head with too many flying 2x4s
LOL...

Have u guys gotten any of this wet soggy stuff up south?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
00z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest96
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)



Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Early Model Wind Forecast
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 433 Comments: 132152

Current Conditions

Roatan, Honduras (Airport)
Updated: 1 hr 33 min 22 sec ago

29 °C
Haze
Humidity: 74%
Dew Point: 25 °C
Wind: 22 km/h / from the East

Wind Gust: -
Pressure: 1008 hPa (Falling)
Visibility: 15.0 kilometers
Clouds:
Few 600 m
Scattered Clouds 2400 m
Mostly Cloudy 6000 m
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 5 m
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
No closed circulation? Maybe I've been watching different sat loops than the Dr., but I've seen a closed circulation several times this weekend. Sat afternoon was very clear. RGB showed the circulation very well. Vortex was completely visible. There was actually a second circulation for a while further east as well. It didn't last that long though. Good thing all of that dry air is in the area or it could have been a very ugly weekend (relatively speaking considering the ugliness already on-going).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
112

Sounds like he has been hit in the head with too many flying 2x4s

or not enough
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think I might know where the actual COC of 96L maybe located check out on shortwave ir loop the area around 17.3N/84.5W , then check the pressure around Roatan, Honduras.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting F4PHANTOM:
I believe the earlier runs were initializing from the tip of the Yucatan. This run is farther south. That's what I was referring to.


I fully understand ..and concur.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 433 Comments: 132152
Quoting StormW:


I'd like to see what the forecast shear is once it gets past the Yucatan, but right now, the 18Z run shows 96L may encounter shear on its NE side in about 36 hours, with the upper level pattern only being somewhat conducive...less than the somewhat favorable conditions it has seen. Forecast steering still indicates a Texas event...exactly where is unknown, until it gets into the Gulf, and steering can be reassessed. This would be the upper pattern as it enters the central Gulf.



That looks like a big improvement compared to the 00Z you posted. Southerly shear was running to 40 knots, now what, 20 or less? Steering, other than that shear, I have not been following. But losing that shear may open a door?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 220 - 170

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Carrot Nose in Danger
Deep Snow in Brookline, MA
Sunset at Fort DeSoto
New Years Day Sunset in Death Valley