Invest 95L Brushes Louisiana Coastline

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:42 AM GMT on July 06, 2010

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Hi all,

Dr. Rob Carver, filling in for Jeff this week.

Midnight CDT Update
The low known as Invest 95L stopped it's northward progression and is now moving west along the Louisiana coastline. This is the oddest mesoscale convective complex/tropical feature I've seen in awhile. It's still producing a lot of rain, 2+ inches inland and 6+ inches over the ocean.


Base reflectivity from Lake Charles, LA at 11PM July 5 showing a very nice comma head. Animated loop.


Invest 95L is making landfall now in southern Louisiana near Terrebonne Bay. A CMAN station in Terrebonne Bay is currently reporting winds from the SE at 21 mph and the pressure is 1009 mb. Looking at the radar data, Invest 95L never had convection around the center of circulation. Also, it was hard to see a distinct surface circulation in the different analyses available. I believe soaking rains for southern Lousisana are going to be Invest 95L's main legacy. It's already produced 5+ inches of rain in some offshore locations according to radar-derived rainfall estimates.


Fig. 1 Meteogram for TRBL1 in Terrebonne Bay, LA. Tabular data are here.


Fig. 2 Base reflectivity from New Orleans, LA at 706PM, July 5. Animated loop.

Invest 96L
430 AM Update
In sum, the 00Z model runs don't present a different picture. It is curious to note that the Canadian Global model does not intensify 96L at all in the 00Z run, while NOGAPS has shifted towards a SE Louisiana landfall. I think the following discussion is still valid.

96L is going to be an interesting feature to forecast. It's still on the edge of a strong wind shear gradient. 40+ knots of shear are on the NE side of 96L, and <10 knots are on the SW side. The "center" of 96L is under about 15 knots of shear. This is likely inhibiting 96L. Nearly all forecast models take 96L NW through the Yucatan peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico. Near the Yucatan itself, sea-surface temperatures are relatively cool, not the best environment for intensification. However, at 25N, 87W there is a hotspot of SST's, which would promote rapid intensification. However, there's currently 20 knots of shear over the hotspot, so the thunderstorms that do form as a result will be well ventilated, and not cause 96L to intensify.

The dynamical models have different takes on how 96L intensifies in the next 120 hours. The 18Z operational GFS strongly intensifies 96L over the hotspot and takes 96L towards Grand Isle, LA. The parallel (for testing model configuration changes) GFS has a similar track, but does not strengthen 96L as much. This indicates uncertainty on how the models are handling the upper-level winds.

The 18Z HWRF solution is much like the parallel GFS solution. The 12Z Canadian global model has a more westerly track, pushing 96L towards Port Arthur, but it strengthens 96L right before it makes landfall, not when it's over open water. NOGAPS takes the "a little from column A, a little from column B" approach, with a spinup over the hotspot (op. GFS solution), but a westerly landfall (the Canadian solution). More data to initialize the models from synoptic reconnaissance flights will help reduce uncertainty.

The bottom line, 96L will move into the Gulf of Mexico and is then shrouded by the mists of uncertainty. I also think that it's a possibility (>50%) that it will become a tropical cyclone sometime in the next 48-72 hours (leaning towards sometime in day 2-3 based on the model runs.)


Fig. 3 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 GFS model run.Parallel GFS version.


Fig. 4 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 HWRF model run.


Fig. 5 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 12Z July 5 CMC global model run.NOGAPS wind swath.

Next update
I'll probably tweak this blog later tonight as new model runs come in. I'll have a full update tomorrow afternoon (Pacific time).

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Quoting STORMTOPII:


I HAVE BEEN DENIED ACCESS TO THIS BLOG VIA ORIGINAL HANDLE. YOU OF ALL PEOPLE WOULD KNOW THIS SINCE YOU HAVE BEEN AROUND THE BLOCK A FEW TIMES.

Why have you been denied????
Maybe that mean's your not wanted in here by the admin..... just sayin'
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Quoting miliohara:


Thanks, I guess I was looking at steering winds wrong. Or I have to much pinball on my mind right now.


Anytime. Actually I just watched the weather earlier and my local met. exlpained what was going on. I'll be the first to admit I don't know everything about meteorology, just what I learned in school and from helping out a friend @ fox news during severe weather season. I just look for the facts and the answers and use them!
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95L is a legend and already has people making books about him


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Quoting msgambler:
Good morning Aussie

Lol. Good Afternoon.
12:16pm here
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Quoting STORMTOPII:


YOUR CALLING ME FAKE? I CAN ASSURE YOU THIS IS THE REAL STORMTOP.

if your the real stormtop, why not come in here with that handle???
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Quoting btwntx08:

the 12z ecmwf has 96L moving into tx so i dont think it will be pick up


The other models are doing a windshield wiper effect today. They were down in South Texas again, now they are back between Matagorda and Freeport. If this does develop we won't know who needs to evacuate or this will have be a Carla-like evacuation if only because of the uncertainty. :P
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Hey everyone. Is it against the rules for me to post a link to a non-Wunderground personal blog on here? I just updated it with some pics from Invest 95 that I took here in Slidell, Louisiana and wanted to see if I could share it with everyone here.
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Good morning Aussie
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
Quoting aquak9:


no, aussie, it's not really him. Just another wannabe.
Ughhh...Let's just ignore people like that before they become a bother later down the season.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting aquak9:


no, aussie, it's not really him. Just another wannabe.

Another future trouble maker
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How far right do you think they wil pull it?And is the trough going to sit in soon over Texas?
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Quoting AussieStorm:

reincarnation number?????


no, aussie, it's not really him. Just another wannabe.
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Quoting PtownBryan:


Probably not. 96L will follow the path of least resistance, that being, northwestward towards Texas. The high should protect Florida and the nothern gulf coast, with the possible exception of extreme western Louisiana. I think you are going to be ok for this one.



Thank you. I've grown weary of hearing this is a TX event even before it gets an eventual TD classification by the NHC.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
This? If you click the image it'll take you straight to the link..

Thank you : )
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Quoting STORMTOPII:




reincarnation number?????
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Quoting Chicklit:

Unfortunately, yes. And life is choked out of the marshes. And ;the stench makes people sick. Everything is awful and there is no relief in sight.


Let's not forget to mentally add that when we're hearing about the damages from this deepwater disaster. It truly does appear to be quite awful.
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Quoting blsealevel:
Link

Big trof coming up could efect 96L later Models are going to pull right.


how far right? LA?
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
Just drove up from Grand Isle just east of Houma on 308.....no rain. Nothing except some storm clouds in the distance.
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Mimic link if you want to save it, it's only for active storms with a defined center, though..

Link
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Quoting PtownBryan:


Probably not. 96L will follow the path of least resistance, that being, northwestward towards Texas. The high should protect Florida and the nothern gulf coast, with the possible exception of extreme western Louisiana. I think you are going to be ok for this one.


Thanks, I guess I was looking at steering winds wrong. Or I have to much pinball on my mind right now.
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Link

Big trof coming up could efect 96L later Models are going to pull right.
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Quoting PtownBryan:


Probably not. 96L will follow the path of least resistance, that being, northwestward towards Texas. The high should protect Florida and the nothern gulf coast, with the possible exception of extreme western Louisiana. I think you are going to be ok for this one.


there is no high over florida right now, it's expected to build in from the north and push it more westward, then its current NNW movement through the yucatan tip/channel. Everyone in the gulf should watch it.
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Quoting midgulfmom:
According to your map MiamiHurrican09 it does appear so. What would be another explanation for that graphic?
As to what affect? Do you mean like what else could that strong vorticity west of Cuba mean?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting miliohara:
Anyone in here believe that 96L could easily come north and east enough to scrap the west coast if Florida before being pulled toward northwest and hitting AL. or Panhandle of florida? Just a question. This year has been wierd so far. Why not? Steering winds look to favor the nne turn in the following unless I'm reading everything wrong.


Probably not. 96L will follow the path of least resistance, that being, northwestward towards Texas. The high should protect Florida and the nothern gulf coast, with the possible exception of extreme western Louisiana. I think you are going to be ok for this one.
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center of 95L clearly off shore now, and moving W/WNW

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=LIX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

gaining convection
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
You said Alex again. For some reason he is stuck in your head. LOL
LOL! You know what I mean.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
236. xcool
lolol alex lol //btwntx08
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According to your map MiamiHurrican09 it does appear so. What would be another explanation for that graphic?
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Hi all,

anything new versus earlier in the tropics?
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
Ike…if you are still here…please put that list up of comments that you posted that relate to the current AOI’s.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11264
Quoting will45:


that looks like 95L
No. They just factor in current motion as to where they forecast the COC will be at the time of the flight.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting MechEngMet:
199: Tell the NHC to go look at the radar. By the way, you could go take a look too. The COC is clearly off shore again, and moving roughly West. Hard to see if it's moving slightly north or slightly south of due west.

Go look at the radar and then get back to me.

Personally I don't care what the NHC says. I rely on me and me alone to prepare for storms, (Storms of all types). The Fed-Gov has a very poor track record down south right now.


I second that, Mech. Much rather trust what I see visually on radar RIGHT NOW, rather than what the NHC saw two hours ago. Things can change quickly.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Eh? That is where 850mb vorticity is at its strongest. Also, there is a nice convective blow-up there.

You said Alex again. For some reason he is stuck in your head. LOL
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Quoting btwntx08:

lol alex again
Quoting msgambler:
Thought Alex was last week
Ok ok. I'm having a tough time between Alex and 96L because they are so similar. LOL, from now on, if I say Alex you know I mean 96L.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to check out 96L is organization warrants. IMO, they will likely not go out tomorrow.

000
NOUS42 KNHC 051415
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT MON 05 JULY 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z JULY 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-035

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 06/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 06/1615Z
D. 24.5N 89.5W
E. 06/1715Z TO 06/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 07/0600, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 07/0345Z
D. 26.5N 91.5W
E. 07/0415Z TO 07/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE 3-HRLY FIXES
BEGINNING AT 07/1500Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARK: TASKING FOR 05/1800Z CANCELED BY NHC
AT 05/1140Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP



that looks like 95L
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Quoting BahaHurican:
LOL.... g'morning... Did I tell u I just finished reading Nevil Shute's "On the Beach"? It was pretty interesting from a meteorological point of view, and it also reminded me that it does get pretty nasty sometimes down in the Melbourne area... one tends to think of all Oz surfing year-round...


His "Round The Bend" was my favorite. You will enjoy it if you liked "On The Beach".
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Link

See ya?
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Anyone in here believe that 96L could easily come north and east enough to scrap the west coast if Florida before being pulled toward northwest and hitting AL. or Panhandle of florida? Just a question. This year has been wierd so far. Why not? Steering winds look to favor the nne turn in the following unless I'm reading everything wrong.
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Quoting bappit:

?

Edit: Eh?
Eh? That is where 850mb vorticity is at its strongest. Also, there is a nice convective blow-up there.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
From everything I'm seeing, the COC of Alex is located just to the west of the western tip of Cuba.

Thought Alex was last week
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
I am having difficulty replying to a quote, Sorry
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.