Invest 95L Brushes Louisiana Coastline

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:42 AM GMT on July 06, 2010

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Hi all,

Dr. Rob Carver, filling in for Jeff this week.

Midnight CDT Update
The low known as Invest 95L stopped it's northward progression and is now moving west along the Louisiana coastline. This is the oddest mesoscale convective complex/tropical feature I've seen in awhile. It's still producing a lot of rain, 2+ inches inland and 6+ inches over the ocean.


Base reflectivity from Lake Charles, LA at 11PM July 5 showing a very nice comma head. Animated loop.


Invest 95L is making landfall now in southern Louisiana near Terrebonne Bay. A CMAN station in Terrebonne Bay is currently reporting winds from the SE at 21 mph and the pressure is 1009 mb. Looking at the radar data, Invest 95L never had convection around the center of circulation. Also, it was hard to see a distinct surface circulation in the different analyses available. I believe soaking rains for southern Lousisana are going to be Invest 95L's main legacy. It's already produced 5+ inches of rain in some offshore locations according to radar-derived rainfall estimates.


Fig. 1 Meteogram for TRBL1 in Terrebonne Bay, LA. Tabular data are here.


Fig. 2 Base reflectivity from New Orleans, LA at 706PM, July 5. Animated loop.

Invest 96L
430 AM Update
In sum, the 00Z model runs don't present a different picture. It is curious to note that the Canadian Global model does not intensify 96L at all in the 00Z run, while NOGAPS has shifted towards a SE Louisiana landfall. I think the following discussion is still valid.

96L is going to be an interesting feature to forecast. It's still on the edge of a strong wind shear gradient. 40+ knots of shear are on the NE side of 96L, and <10 knots are on the SW side. The "center" of 96L is under about 15 knots of shear. This is likely inhibiting 96L. Nearly all forecast models take 96L NW through the Yucatan peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico. Near the Yucatan itself, sea-surface temperatures are relatively cool, not the best environment for intensification. However, at 25N, 87W there is a hotspot of SST's, which would promote rapid intensification. However, there's currently 20 knots of shear over the hotspot, so the thunderstorms that do form as a result will be well ventilated, and not cause 96L to intensify.

The dynamical models have different takes on how 96L intensifies in the next 120 hours. The 18Z operational GFS strongly intensifies 96L over the hotspot and takes 96L towards Grand Isle, LA. The parallel (for testing model configuration changes) GFS has a similar track, but does not strengthen 96L as much. This indicates uncertainty on how the models are handling the upper-level winds.

The 18Z HWRF solution is much like the parallel GFS solution. The 12Z Canadian global model has a more westerly track, pushing 96L towards Port Arthur, but it strengthens 96L right before it makes landfall, not when it's over open water. NOGAPS takes the "a little from column A, a little from column B" approach, with a spinup over the hotspot (op. GFS solution), but a westerly landfall (the Canadian solution). More data to initialize the models from synoptic reconnaissance flights will help reduce uncertainty.

The bottom line, 96L will move into the Gulf of Mexico and is then shrouded by the mists of uncertainty. I also think that it's a possibility (>50%) that it will become a tropical cyclone sometime in the next 48-72 hours (leaning towards sometime in day 2-3 based on the model runs.)


Fig. 3 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 GFS model run.Parallel GFS version.


Fig. 4 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 HWRF model run.


Fig. 5 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 12Z July 5 CMC global model run.NOGAPS wind swath.

Next update
I'll probably tweak this blog later tonight as new model runs come in. I'll have a full update tomorrow afternoon (Pacific time).

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Met Service of Jamaica website

July 5, 2010 at 4:00 p.m.

LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST

SIGNIFICANT FEATURE%u2026 High Pressure Ridge across the central Caribbean, including Jamaica.

Comment
The High Pressure Ridge dominates across Jamaica for the next couple of days until an active Tropical Wave moves across the island mid-week.

24-HOURS FORECAST
Tonight%u2026 Partly cloudy.
Tomorrow%u2026 Mainly sunny morning with scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms mainly
across central and western parishes.

3-DAYS FORECAST (after tomorrow)
Wed%u2026 Mainly sunny morning with isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms mainly across
central and western parishes.
Thurs/Fri%u2026 Periods of showers and thunderstorms across most parishes, especially during the afternoon.

Regionally%u2026 An active Tropical Wave is producing widespread showers and thunderstorms across
the eastern Caribbean. The Wave should bring increased showers to the Jamaica area by Thursday.

nch/kjb
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting taco2me61:

Just done that too, then got fuel while it is so called cheap...
but at $2.44 a gal is not that cheap....
But with all due respect I just donot like the
set up of 96L and the location....

Taco :o)
2.44 where taco?
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Nobody here finds it odd or worth commenting on that Dr. Rob said it didn't have a closed circulation? And the TPC didn't even pay any attention to it when it was fairly obvious to us rookies that there was something going on?



Not worth the drama and all the yacking. Like Andy tells Opie in one episode, "all that's important is that you know."

Clearly, there was a "closed" low-level center, exposed at one point and void of convection, but it appeared to be moving back under the convection that was on its east side. And, evidently, it's still not quite through - though "tropical storm" force winds may be felt. LOL, but it's not a TD. Yeah, ok.
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We did our Fourth of July grilling today. We got it done just in time before the first bands from 95 got here. Burgers and hot dogs! I love this country! Happy belated fourth to everyone!
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Sure thing gambler.Ill get him on it first thing.LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Quoting aquak9:


cutting the yard- gambler, boy did you hit a nerve. The only time I HAVE to mow, is when we're in the Cone'o'Doom. It's a tradition.

And I do NOT like to mow.
I wish I could get my wife to do it then. She said yard work is a mans job....LOL
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
Quoting mrsalagranny:
I have all my supplies already too.I hope my gut feeling is wrong on this one.When i look at 96l ,i feel nervous.I had hubby fire up the generator and make sure it was ok.One can never be too prepared.


Never hurts to be prepared! I guess I need to do the same and check out the generator!
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Quoting RobbieLSU:


Thanks! No it's just a personal blog I have on blogger. I used to put "tropical updates" on Facebook and people kept saying how much they liked them, so I decided to make a blog everyone could go to!

I'm no expert, so it's nothing like Levi32, Stormw, or weather456's, but I just kind of impart what I know and try to keep it pretty basic. My most recent update has a few pictures I took (with my phone) of the clouds from Invest 95:

Robbie's Tropical Blog
Nice pics. Looks just like it did around here yesterday.
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Quoting RobbieLSU:


Thanks! No it's just a personal blog I have on blogger. I used to put "tropical updates" on Facebook and people kept saying how much they liked them, so I decided to make a blog everyone could go to!

I'm no expert, so it's nothing like Levi32, Stormw, or weather456's, but I just kind of impart what I know and try to keep it pretty basic. My most recent update has a few pictures I took (with my phone) of the clouds from Invest 95:

Robbie's Tropical Blog


Nice pictures of the cloud formations -- they certainly seem to be low and ominous
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305: Woah, Very Interesting...
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MY word Rob it looks like the rain was really coming down on you hard.Thay=t looks like some of the rain we got in Ala. this afternoon.I hope you didnt get any flooding in your area.
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Quoting mrsalagranny:
I have all my supplies already too.I hope my gut feeling is wrong on this one.When i look at 96l ,i feel nervous.I had hubby fire up the generator and make sure it was ok.One can never be too prepared.

Just done that too, then got fuel while it is so called cheap...
but at $2.44 a gal is not that cheap....
But with all due respect I just donot like the
set up of 96L and the location....

Taco :o)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting mrsalagranny:
I have all my supplies already too.I hope my gut feeling is wrong on this one.When i look at 96l ,i feel nervous.I had hubby fire up the generator and make sure it was ok.One can never be too prepared.


That is the last thing left on my list too. Fire up the genny. Someone mentioned a product called Sta-bil that helps gas to last longer. Going to invest in some of that as well and get ahead on gas storage.
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Quoting JLPR2:


Looks interesting, moving west?


Seems to be by my eye..

But then again I like Mauve too
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
305. JRRP
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Quoting msgambler:
Granny, can you con hubby into coming here and finish cutting my yard for me....LOL


cutting the yard- gambler, boy did you hit a nerve. The only time I HAVE to mow, is when we're in the Cone'o'Doom. It's a tradition.

And I do NOT like to mow.
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303. JLPR2
Quoting Patrap:


Looks interesting, moving west?
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Big Bang telescope captures first image
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Quoting IKE:


Tell us how you really feel.
Quoting GreenMe2225:
this blog reminds me of a turn of the century burlesque show, full of toothless fat old men with pockets full of putrid vegetables. cat calling howls and anti social behavior galore. most of you should absolutely be ashamed but that would require not being either addicted to the point of insanty of some primitive form of conscience which is not available to you de evolved humans. most of you here are a bunch of worthless louts with no life and no shame.


lol welcome to the internet
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Quoting STORMTOPII:


YOUR CALLING ME FAKE? I CAN ASSURE YOU THIS IS THE REAL STORMTOP.


You're not the real StormTop. You couldn't answer my three questions correctly.
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new Center east of cozumel, moving NW/NNW may be developing.. convection is beginning to spin
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
JimCantore

Invest 95L HASN'T come COMPLETELY onshore yet. It's trying to slowly organize south of Morgan City, LA. Could be interesting.....


heavy storms forming on the east side, and wrapping around the "center" moving W/WNW

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Quoting mrsalagranny:
I have all my supplies already too.I hope my gut feeling is wrong on this one.When i look at 96l ,i feel nervous.I had hubby fire up the generator and make sure it was ok.One can never be too prepared.



Where are you at?
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
Nobody here finds it odd or worth commenting on that Dr. Rob said it didn't have a closed circulation? And the TPC didn't even pay any attention to it when it was fairly obvious to us rookies that there was something going on?
Seems the TPC makes a forecast and then tries to verify it even when the objective data says otherwise and a lot of the folks here, not all but a significant portion, just swallow the kool-aid. Bizzare.
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Quoting mrsalagranny:
I have all my supplies already too.I hope my gut feeling is wrong on this one.When i look at 96l ,i feel nervous.I had hubby fire up the generator and make sure it was ok.One can never be too prepared.
Granny, can you con hubby into coming here and finish cutting my yard for me....LOL
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
Quoting StormTop5000:
The high pressure setup will guide 96L or Bonnie over south texas ...but may park the system there for a few days resulting in some bad flooding..
Now there's the 5000 model we love to *poof*...lol. The original model was the first blogger I ever poofed....ah, the good 'ole days.
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283: I agree! The COC is still off shore moving roughly west.

Tex/LA border? Let's see what happens overnight...

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I have all my supplies already too.I hope my gut feeling is wrong on this one.When i look at 96l ,i feel nervous.I had hubby fire up the generator and make sure it was ok.One can never be too prepared.
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Quoting zoomiami:


As long as you identify it (which you have) and your not trying to sell or enroll someone - you should be fine.


Thanks! No it's just a personal blog I have on blogger. I used to put "tropical updates" on Facebook and people kept saying how much they liked them, so I decided to make a blog everyone could go to!

I'm no expert, so it's nothing like Levi32, Stormw, or weather456's, but I just kind of impart what I know and try to keep it pretty basic. My most recent update has a few pictures I took (with my phone) of the clouds from Invest 95:

Robbie's Tropical Blog
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St. Mary Parish

Forecasts for Louisiana — Return to U.S. Severe Weather


Flood Warning

Statement as of 7:37 PM CDT on July 05, 2010

The Flood Warning continues for
the Atchafalaya River at Morgan City.

* Until further notice... or until the warning is cancelled.

* At 4:00 PM Monday the stage was 4.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* The flood stage is 4.0 feet.
* Forecast... the river is expected to continue rising to near 5.0 feet
by Saturday morning.
* Impact... at 5.0 feet... floodwall gates will be closed to protect
against higher stages. Vessel traffic will be affected by stronger
river current and vessel traffic safety rules will be strictly
enforced by the U. S. Coast Guard.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Slow tonight…None of the “experts” on. Time for a little musical interlude before the late-night shift comes on:



Cool!
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Quoting STORMTOPII:


WITH ALL DO RESPECT IF JFV CAN COMEBACK 500 TIMES I THINK I DESERVE A SECOND CHANCE.

With all due respect.... you should of come in here with a different handle other than stormtop. If you did, no one would notice your ex-stormtop, just another blogger.

btw, no need to shout(caps).
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Everyone in Hurricane prone areas should be prepared now. Don’t wait for the “Cone of Doom” or models to prepare.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11557
The high pressure setup will guide 96L or Bonnie over south texas ...but may park the system there for a few days resulting in some bad flooding..
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Link
Kinda old, but strong winds in 96L nevertheless.
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JimCantore

Invest 95L HASN'T come COMPLETELY onshore yet. It's trying to slowly organize south of Morgan City, LA. Could be interesting.....
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Quoting leo305:


there is no high over florida right now, it's expected to build in from the north and push it more westward, then its current NNW movement through the yucatan tip/channel. Everyone in the gulf should watch it.


I never said there was at this point in time, I said the high SHOULD protect Florida. Please do not pull me into the drama of this blog. I am here to have fun, have good conversation, and to learn. And last time I checked 96L was moving NW, not NNW.
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Link

I'm no Met. but I see it just to the right of the cmc as of now, probably will be different on tue.
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Quoting taco2me61:

I'm back and thats why I went to get supplies...
I think I'm wrong but rather safe than sorry
if you know what I mean....

Taco :o)
I know what you mean. Pat and I have been talking about it for several days now.
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
Quoting StormTop5000:

??????
Oh geez,,,,, this is getting ridiculous.
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Quoting mrsalagranny:
How far right do you think they wil pull it?And is the trough going to sit in soon over Texas?

I'm back and thats why I went to get supplies...
I think I'm wrong but rather safe than sorry
if you know what I mean....

Taco :o)
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Repost
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11557
Quoting RobbieLSU:
Hey everyone. Is it against the rules for me to post a link to a non-Wunderground personal blog on here? I just updated it with some pics from Invest 95 that I took here in Slidell, Louisiana and wanted to see if I could share it with everyone here.


As long as you identify it (which you have) and your not trying to sell or enroll someone - you should be fine.

But you can also upload the pictures to your blog here --
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Lol. Good Afternoon.
12:16pm here
We get rid of some and others show up....Go figure!
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
Quoting btwntx08:

it may pull the 2003 claudette so who knows


Talk about watching paint dry! I followed that one all the way across the Caribbean waiting for it to develop, then when it got going it took off. Did they ever decide if she made it to cat 2 just before landfall?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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