Invest 95L Brushes Louisiana Coastline

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:42 AM GMT on July 06, 2010

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Hi all,

Dr. Rob Carver, filling in for Jeff this week.

Midnight CDT Update
The low known as Invest 95L stopped it's northward progression and is now moving west along the Louisiana coastline. This is the oddest mesoscale convective complex/tropical feature I've seen in awhile. It's still producing a lot of rain, 2+ inches inland and 6+ inches over the ocean.


Base reflectivity from Lake Charles, LA at 11PM July 5 showing a very nice comma head. Animated loop.


Invest 95L is making landfall now in southern Louisiana near Terrebonne Bay. A CMAN station in Terrebonne Bay is currently reporting winds from the SE at 21 mph and the pressure is 1009 mb. Looking at the radar data, Invest 95L never had convection around the center of circulation. Also, it was hard to see a distinct surface circulation in the different analyses available. I believe soaking rains for southern Lousisana are going to be Invest 95L's main legacy. It's already produced 5+ inches of rain in some offshore locations according to radar-derived rainfall estimates.


Fig. 1 Meteogram for TRBL1 in Terrebonne Bay, LA. Tabular data are here.


Fig. 2 Base reflectivity from New Orleans, LA at 706PM, July 5. Animated loop.

Invest 96L
430 AM Update
In sum, the 00Z model runs don't present a different picture. It is curious to note that the Canadian Global model does not intensify 96L at all in the 00Z run, while NOGAPS has shifted towards a SE Louisiana landfall. I think the following discussion is still valid.

96L is going to be an interesting feature to forecast. It's still on the edge of a strong wind shear gradient. 40+ knots of shear are on the NE side of 96L, and <10 knots are on the SW side. The "center" of 96L is under about 15 knots of shear. This is likely inhibiting 96L. Nearly all forecast models take 96L NW through the Yucatan peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico. Near the Yucatan itself, sea-surface temperatures are relatively cool, not the best environment for intensification. However, at 25N, 87W there is a hotspot of SST's, which would promote rapid intensification. However, there's currently 20 knots of shear over the hotspot, so the thunderstorms that do form as a result will be well ventilated, and not cause 96L to intensify.

The dynamical models have different takes on how 96L intensifies in the next 120 hours. The 18Z operational GFS strongly intensifies 96L over the hotspot and takes 96L towards Grand Isle, LA. The parallel (for testing model configuration changes) GFS has a similar track, but does not strengthen 96L as much. This indicates uncertainty on how the models are handling the upper-level winds.

The 18Z HWRF solution is much like the parallel GFS solution. The 12Z Canadian global model has a more westerly track, pushing 96L towards Port Arthur, but it strengthens 96L right before it makes landfall, not when it's over open water. NOGAPS takes the "a little from column A, a little from column B" approach, with a spinup over the hotspot (op. GFS solution), but a westerly landfall (the Canadian solution). More data to initialize the models from synoptic reconnaissance flights will help reduce uncertainty.

The bottom line, 96L will move into the Gulf of Mexico and is then shrouded by the mists of uncertainty. I also think that it's a possibility (>50%) that it will become a tropical cyclone sometime in the next 48-72 hours (leaning towards sometime in day 2-3 based on the model runs.)


Fig. 3 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 GFS model run.Parallel GFS version.


Fig. 4 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 HWRF model run.


Fig. 5 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 12Z July 5 CMC global model run.NOGAPS wind swath.

Next update
I'll probably tweak this blog later tonight as new model runs come in. I'll have a full update tomorrow afternoon (Pacific time).

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Quoting aquak9:
What is the average airspeed of an unladen swallow?"

African or European?
Is said sparrow carrying a coconut?
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Quoting aquak9:
What is the average airspeed of an unladen swallow?"

African or European?


LOL
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spathy- musta been a quick pool game....bet they last longer in the wintertime. :)
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it has a very strong feeder band giving it life!
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128217
What is the average airspeed of an unladen swallow?"

African or European?
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Quoting RobbieLSU:
We did our Fourth of July grilling today. We got it done just in time before the first bands from 95 got here. Burgers and hot dogs! I love this country! Happy belated fourth to everyone!
Wassup, Robbie?

Back to Slidell, myself, for work in the AM.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Quoting zoomiami:
I would love to pay $2.44 a gal -- paid 2.81 when I filled up today here in Miami
We're down to $4.19 / gal at the lowest stations here in Nassau. I don't think I've paid less than $3.00 / gal here since.... oh... 1994, 1995, thereabouts...
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The model plot I'm in agreement with is the TVCN (as usual) and the intensity forecast I'm in agreement with is the DSHP.

00z Model Plots



00z Intensity Forecast

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Quoting MechEngMet:
Gas would last much longer in storage if it wasn't for that &*$%@!!!! 10% Ethanol in it. Just a hint for storing gas for the storm season, or anytime for that matter. Try to find pure gasoline and avoid "Gasahol" (10% ethanol) if at all possible.

The ethanol actually sucks up moisture and can absolutely ruin some engines. Be careful...
Have ya'll tried the product "Stabil" for gasoline or diesel that has been sitting around too long.
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346: Please don't forget; "What is your quest? What is your favorite color? What is the average airspeed of an unladen swallow?"
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Quoting pcbsmokey:
Pat? You give that thing Wheaties on it's way by? :P


Nopa..itsa cruising along fine without my help.


95L skirting along feeling the groovy SST's man.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128217
Quoting CanesfanatUT:


True. I look but I can't find EtOH free mogas very often. But I'm not near a refinery.

Suspect if you are near a refinery - you are more like to find EtOH free mogas.

Ethanol is frustrating to the industry.


We find E free gas at marinas around here. I'm told ethanol raises cob with boat motors.
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(wags tail)
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Quoting Patrap:


Wow - what an odd storm. Moving parallel to Looziana. I figured I'd come back from the store to find it around BR.
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Quoting AllBoardedUp:
That too! Might as well throw in "easier to spot snakes" as well.


Always a Plus!!haha
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AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Pat? You give that thing Wheaties on it's way by? :P
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Quoting mrsalagranny:
Hey Taco that is who I work for,Murphy USA.I work at the one inSemmes on hwy 98 and Schillingers rd.

I had no idea. I'll have to drop by one day and say Hey...
Thats if you are not busy, but if it is like the one here
well I would not even get a chance... LOL
cause it is always very Busy....

Taco :o)
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Quoting aquak9:


Cosmic, besides the secret word, all he has to do is answer CORRECTLY these three questions:

1. What is his eye color?
2. Who's his favorite college basketball team?
3. Who all stayed with him during Katrina?

See? easy...if it's the real deal.


Nuff said there.

Woof!!!

Dats a fact, Jack
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128217
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128217
Quoting CosmicEvents:

The original STORMTOP was quite a character extraordinaire on this blog. He made a secret word that he shared with some of the blog elders to identify himself just in case of a situation like this. So, ST2, 3 4 or 5000....whoever you are.....if you are the original....simply go ahead and e-mail one of us the "secret word".


Cosmic, besides the secret word, all he has to do is answer CORRECTLY these three questions:

1. What is his eye color?
2. Who's his favorite college basketball team?
3. Who all stayed with him during Katrina?

See? easy...if it's the real deal.
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Wha are u talking about FLdeway?Blow my gag...........
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Quoting MechEngMet:
Gas would last much longer in storage if it wasn't for that &*$%@!!!! 10% Ethanol in it. Just a hint for storing gas for the storm season, or anytime for that matter. Try to find pure gasoline and avoid "Gasahol" (10% ethanol) if at all possible.

The ethanol actually sucks up moisture and can absolutely ruin some engines. Be careful...


True. I look but I can't find EtOH free mogas very often. But I'm not near a refinery.

Suspect if you are near a refinery - you are more like to find EtOH free mogas.

Ethanol is frustrating to the industry.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting txsweetpea:



Keeps down the "skeeters" too!!!
That too! Might as well throw in "easier to spot snakes" as well.
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A Coc making Landfall in the Marsh..isnt Like a Landfall on a Paved road.

Its called marsh for a reason Dr. Carver.

As so many here like to say,.."it strengthened over the everglades".

Same applies here.

And the Entry Header should read,

Arrive's....not arrive.

The devil is in da details.

Always.


No PHD required sometimes,..

Just saying
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128217
Hey Taco that is who I work for,Murphy USA.I work at the one inSemmes on hwy 98 and Schillingers rd.
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One of the things I learned during Wilma…a lot of neighbors had the solar power lights outside and didn’t think of pulling them up or taking them down….Found a lot of them around the neighborhood after the storm.
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Quoting mrsalagranny:
yEAH cAPE IT IS GOOD IN STABILIZING THE FUEL SO CONDENSATION DOENT GET IN IT.Sorry for the caps lock didnt notice it LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!


Um - you mean water/moisture. Condensation is more like a verb...
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Quoting AllBoardedUp:
#304, mowing my grass before I evacuate (or not) is one of the last things I do. I learned this after Rita. I cleaned and mowed about 4 of my neighbor's yards before they got back in town.

Believe me, cleaning up small twigs and raking leaves and small debris is a lot easier on a shorter grass lawn than higher grass.



Keeps down the "skeeters" too!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Gas would last much longer in storage if it wasn't for that &*$%@!!!! 10% Ethanol in it. Just a hint for storing gas for the storm season, or anytime for that matter. Try to find pure gasoline and avoid "Gasahol" (10% ethanol) if at all possible.

The ethanol actually sucks up moisture and can absolutely ruin some engines. Be careful...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Blog Update!

July 5, 2010 - 10:45 PM EDT - Invest 96L Likely To Become Bonnie Down The Road
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Quoting blsealevel:
Link

I'm no Met. but I see it just to the right of the cmc as of now, probably will be different on tue.


That ridge puts up quite a fight on that run. I hope it can do a bit better in real time. Lotta uncertainty there it seems. GFS 18Z doesn't pick up the storm, but it does show a similar "shaky ridge" in the NE gulf.
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Link

What!!!
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Quoting katadman:


His "Round The Bend" was my favorite. You will enjoy it if you liked "On The Beach".
Nevil Shute always brings me down. That man wrote more pessimistic books than you can imagine... and he is one of my fave writers from that period (1930-60). Did u read "No Highway"?

Now that I think of it, he has several novels that, because they have to do with air or sea travel, are rather connected to wx....
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Quoting STORMTOPII:


YOUR CALLING ME FAKE? I CAN ASSURE YOU THIS IS THE REAL STORMTOP.

The original STORMTOP was quite a character extraordinaire on this blog. He made a secret word that he shared with some of the blog elders to identify himself just in case of a situation like this. So, ST2, 3 4 or 5000....whoever you are.....if you are the original....simply go ahead and e-mail one of us the "secret word".
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
#304, mowing my grass before I evacuate (or not) is one of the last things I do. I learned this after Rita. I cleaned and mowed about 4 of my neighbor's yards before they got back in town.

Believe me, cleaning up small twigs and raking leaves and small debris is a lot easier on a shorter grass lawn than higher grass.
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Quoting msgambler:
2.44 where taco?

Murphy USA at University and Cottage Hill Rd
Walmart parking lot next to Pizza Hut....

:o)
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Nobody here finds it odd or worth commenting on that Dr. Rob said it didn't have a closed circulation? And the TPC didn't even pay any attention to it when it was fairly obvious to us rookies that there was something going on?
Seems the TPC makes a forecast and then tries to verify it even when the objective data says otherwise and a lot of the folks here, not all but a significant portion, just swallow the kool-aid. Bizzare.

Dr. Rob was looking at radar for a "closed center of circulation." Nice. More jargon with no explanation like being "attached" to a front. Leaves it open to the cynics to attach whatever meaning they want. (Ha! And I am not cynical. LOL)

Edit: CCOC not COC
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mhm 95L is looking better by the minute on radar..
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yEAH cAPE IT IS GOOD IN STABILIZING THE FUEL SO CONDENSATION DOENT GET IN IT.Sorry for the caps lock didnt notice it LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Quoting AussieStorm:

With all due respect.... you should of come in here with a different handle other than stormtop. If you did, no one would notice your ex-stormtop, just another blogger.

btw, no need to shout(caps).


Storm you got a point. Hail to the exbloggers...GO 96L....Bring on the rain.
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I would love to pay $2.44 a gal -- paid 2.81 when I filled up today here in Miami
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Link

Easy now.
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I find it odd and agree with you. I have also seen that trend with NHC. They sometimes go too far to verify their forecasts.


Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Nobody here finds it odd or worth commenting on that Dr. Rob said it didn't have a closed circulation? And the TPC didn't even pay any attention to it when it was fairly obvious to us rookies that there was something going on?
Seems the TPC makes a forecast and then tries to verify it even when the objective data says otherwise and a lot of the folks here, not all but a significant portion just swallow the kool-aid. Bizzare.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Nobody here finds it odd or worth commenting on that Dr. Rob said it didn't have a closed circulation? And the TPC didn't even pay any attention to it when it was fairly obvious to us rookies that there was something going on?
Seems the TPC makes a forecast and then tries to verify it even when the objective data says otherwise and a lot of the folks here, not all but a significant portion just swallow the kool-aid. Bizzare.
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Quoting mrsalagranny:
Sure thing gambler.Ill get him on it first thing.LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Your a sweetheart...thankyou...LOL
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Met Service of Jamaica website

July 5, 2010 at 4:00 p.m.

LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST

SIGNIFICANT FEATURE%u2026 High Pressure Ridge across the central Caribbean, including Jamaica.

Comment
The High Pressure Ridge dominates across Jamaica for the next couple of days until an active Tropical Wave moves across the island mid-week.

24-HOURS FORECAST
Tonight%u2026 Partly cloudy.
Tomorrow%u2026 Mainly sunny morning with scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms mainly
across central and western parishes.

3-DAYS FORECAST (after tomorrow)
Wed%u2026 Mainly sunny morning with isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms mainly across
central and western parishes.
Thurs/Fri%u2026 Periods of showers and thunderstorms across most parishes, especially during the afternoon.

Regionally%u2026 An active Tropical Wave is producing widespread showers and thunderstorms across
the eastern Caribbean. The Wave should bring increased showers to the Jamaica area by Thursday.

nch/kjb
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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