Invest 95L Brushes Louisiana Coastline

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:42 AM GMT on July 06, 2010

Share this Blog
3
+

Hi all,

Dr. Rob Carver, filling in for Jeff this week.

Midnight CDT Update
The low known as Invest 95L stopped it's northward progression and is now moving west along the Louisiana coastline. This is the oddest mesoscale convective complex/tropical feature I've seen in awhile. It's still producing a lot of rain, 2+ inches inland and 6+ inches over the ocean.


Base reflectivity from Lake Charles, LA at 11PM July 5 showing a very nice comma head. Animated loop.


Invest 95L is making landfall now in southern Louisiana near Terrebonne Bay. A CMAN station in Terrebonne Bay is currently reporting winds from the SE at 21 mph and the pressure is 1009 mb. Looking at the radar data, Invest 95L never had convection around the center of circulation. Also, it was hard to see a distinct surface circulation in the different analyses available. I believe soaking rains for southern Lousisana are going to be Invest 95L's main legacy. It's already produced 5+ inches of rain in some offshore locations according to radar-derived rainfall estimates.


Fig. 1 Meteogram for TRBL1 in Terrebonne Bay, LA. Tabular data are here.


Fig. 2 Base reflectivity from New Orleans, LA at 706PM, July 5. Animated loop.

Invest 96L
430 AM Update
In sum, the 00Z model runs don't present a different picture. It is curious to note that the Canadian Global model does not intensify 96L at all in the 00Z run, while NOGAPS has shifted towards a SE Louisiana landfall. I think the following discussion is still valid.

96L is going to be an interesting feature to forecast. It's still on the edge of a strong wind shear gradient. 40+ knots of shear are on the NE side of 96L, and <10 knots are on the SW side. The "center" of 96L is under about 15 knots of shear. This is likely inhibiting 96L. Nearly all forecast models take 96L NW through the Yucatan peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico. Near the Yucatan itself, sea-surface temperatures are relatively cool, not the best environment for intensification. However, at 25N, 87W there is a hotspot of SST's, which would promote rapid intensification. However, there's currently 20 knots of shear over the hotspot, so the thunderstorms that do form as a result will be well ventilated, and not cause 96L to intensify.

The dynamical models have different takes on how 96L intensifies in the next 120 hours. The 18Z operational GFS strongly intensifies 96L over the hotspot and takes 96L towards Grand Isle, LA. The parallel (for testing model configuration changes) GFS has a similar track, but does not strengthen 96L as much. This indicates uncertainty on how the models are handling the upper-level winds.

The 18Z HWRF solution is much like the parallel GFS solution. The 12Z Canadian global model has a more westerly track, pushing 96L towards Port Arthur, but it strengthens 96L right before it makes landfall, not when it's over open water. NOGAPS takes the "a little from column A, a little from column B" approach, with a spinup over the hotspot (op. GFS solution), but a westerly landfall (the Canadian solution). More data to initialize the models from synoptic reconnaissance flights will help reduce uncertainty.

The bottom line, 96L will move into the Gulf of Mexico and is then shrouded by the mists of uncertainty. I also think that it's a possibility (>50%) that it will become a tropical cyclone sometime in the next 48-72 hours (leaning towards sometime in day 2-3 based on the model runs.)


Fig. 3 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 GFS model run.Parallel GFS version.


Fig. 4 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 HWRF model run.


Fig. 5 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 12Z July 5 CMC global model run.NOGAPS wind swath.

Next update
I'll probably tweak this blog later tonight as new model runs come in. I'll have a full update tomorrow afternoon (Pacific time).

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 420 - 370

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43Blog Index

Quoting Orcasystems:


I am starting to worry.. Lights are on... but no one appears to be home :)


The real question is, how did you get in and see?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I remember I left home once without my Amex and I had 10 bucks on me for gas. That day gas was 4.23 per gallon.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting msgambler:
Pat, I have a question. Are you going to stay up till weeee hours again or did you learn you lesson from last night? LOL


Depends on How Long the Leftovers last..
Urrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrp..


Scusa me.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
Quoting zoomiami:


I know -- we are spoiled. But last year we were only paying about 2.00 per gallon, down from a high of almost 4.00. Big difference in the pocket book.

Hey, I dig $2.00 / gal prices in S.FL... helps a LOT when I need to make a trip over there ... lol ... plus it's nostalgic [remember when gas used to be $2.00 a gallon? yeah... we used to wear gabardine and bell bottoms... lol]

To be fair, I hear it's worse in Europe...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
00z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest96
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)



Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Early Model Wind Forecast
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
Quoting RobbieLSU:


Hey aggie, I was just sharing with everyone the new blog I started up: Robbie's Tropical Blog

It's back to work in the morning for me too. The holiday was nice while it lasted!
Saw that. Not bad...more than I get the chance to put together, usually.

Where's work?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Pat, I have a question. Are you going to stay up till weeee hours again or did you learn you lesson from last night? LOL
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
Thanks for da update Dr. C.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
The secret "Stormtop" model.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
WAoh... not the haiku on the tropical blog....

lol


I am starting to worry.. Lights are on... but no one appears to be home :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting spathy:
Ya know this is a close knit community here.
You can only fool some of the people some of the time!
Show your true colors no matter how dirty.
And you will be accepted.

Be a fake and you are an outcast!


be only one
one only be
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Yeah, me too. This season is sooo different than last year.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This is silly. I did not call him the JFV. He just gets too excited and seems to want storms to affect the Caymans. I will take him off ignore.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting angiest:


Ethanol is a wonderful scam, great at keeping corn prices up and wonderful at driving fuel economy down, perversely leading to an increase in the amount of gasoline consumed.
The corn lobbyist are feeling threatened that the general population is catching on to the bad effects of High Fructose Corn Syrup (HFCS) in food. Afraid everyone is going to start demanding cane sugar instead. Gotta have a back up source of income, ethanol might just do the trick. Ok, I'll get off of the political commentary now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricaster:
Hey Miami. Where did you pull the model runs from. CSU site?


lol -- when I first read this I thought it said "where did you put the models?" Couldn't figure out how Miami could do something with the model runs...guess its time to head for sleep
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting spathy:
Aqua
The winds that be, laid us cool under the light of the lamps.
Fun just the same.
Too poor to continue to shiver and drive home with warm feelings.
You have a water vapor loop to look at:0)
WAoh... not the haiku on the tropical blog....

lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just did a blog on the active tropics.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricaster:
Sleep or blog. Tough call.
I rather blog if there is something to watch, lol.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
TDWR High Definition Radar
New Orleans, Base Reflectivity 0.60 Degree Elevation Range 225 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
Sleep or blog. Tough call.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'll stay a bit longer, not much to do elsewhere.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting BahaHurican:
We're down to $4.19 / gal at the lowest stations here in Nassau. I don't think I've paid less than $3.00 / gal here since.... oh... 1994, 1995, thereabouts...


I know -- we are spoiled. But last year we were only paying about 2.00 per gallon, down from a high of almost 4.00. Big difference in the pocket book.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Goodnight to everyone, Peace to all
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I have a quick question. What time is the flight into 96l tomorrow? I looked at the flight plan, but I don't know how to read it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
HI everyone Winds are starting to pick up here in Cancun and periods of rain
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Pat. Is 95L moving west? Seems to be the path of least resistance.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Great update Miami, Goodnight
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
<
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Now the TDRW radar west of NOLA by 35miles or so.

TDWR High Definition Radar
New Orleans, Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
Quoting MechEngMet:
Gas would last much longer in storage if it wasn't for that &*$%@!!!! 10% Ethanol in it. Just a hint for storing gas for the storm season, or anytime for that matter. Try to find pure gasoline and avoid "Gasahol" (10% ethanol) if at all possible.

The ethanol actually sucks up moisture and can absolutely ruin some engines. Be careful...


Ethanol is a wonderful scam, great at keeping corn prices up and wonderful at driving fuel economy down, perversely leading to an increase in the amount of gasoline consumed.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting Patrap:
Check the FRONTS and MSLP boxes

95L Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop

Go figa..
Is over land, or not? Direction? I'm wondering if I'm going to wake up to heavy showers in the morning over here in Galveston!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks Miami!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nweatherlover:

He apologized. Get a life!


I did say I was sorry.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Have a great night Miami. Should be another exciting week!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans, Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile Range 124 NMI



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
Quoting hurricaster:
Hey Miami. Where did you pull the model runs from. CSU site?
NHC Tropical Cyclone Model Output Maps
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting atmoaggie:
Wassup, Robbie?

Back to Slidell, myself, for work in the AM.


Hey aggie, I was just sharing with everyone the new blog I started up: Robbie's Tropical Blog

It's back to work in the morning for me too. The holiday was nice while it lasted!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Blog Update!

July 5, 2010 - 10:45 PM EDT - Invest 96L Likely To Become Bonnie Down The Road

Well I'm off to bed. Have a pleasant evening everybody.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Hey Miami. Where did you pull the model runs from. CSU site?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Check the FRONTS and MSLP boxes

95L Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop

Go figa..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Then why didn't you change it to lower case? You are the JFV of the Caymans! My first poof of the season.

He apologized. Get a life!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
Have ya'll tried the product "Stabil" for gasoline or diesel that has been sitting around too long.
Forgot to elaborate. It comes in a small bottle and is reddish/pinkish in color. I always add it to my gas cans and lawn mowers, weed eaters, etc. during a new season. I always forget about using up or emptying the tanks during the winter months. Anyhow, Stabil is supposed to take out any moisture in the gas or diesel. I haven't had any problems using it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
Have ya'll tried the product "Stabil" for gasoline or diesel that has been sitting around too long.


I use stabill every season.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
unladen
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
96L is gonna Pop into the GOM proper come tomorrow and the place will be a Zoo by Noon.

Cool...

er,

I mean Kewl..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667

Viewing: 420 - 370

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Mostly Cloudy
68 °F
Mostly Cloudy