Invest 95L Brushes Louisiana Coastline

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:42 AM GMT on July 06, 2010

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Hi all,

Dr. Rob Carver, filling in for Jeff this week.

Midnight CDT Update
The low known as Invest 95L stopped it's northward progression and is now moving west along the Louisiana coastline. This is the oddest mesoscale convective complex/tropical feature I've seen in awhile. It's still producing a lot of rain, 2+ inches inland and 6+ inches over the ocean.


Base reflectivity from Lake Charles, LA at 11PM July 5 showing a very nice comma head. Animated loop.


Invest 95L is making landfall now in southern Louisiana near Terrebonne Bay. A CMAN station in Terrebonne Bay is currently reporting winds from the SE at 21 mph and the pressure is 1009 mb. Looking at the radar data, Invest 95L never had convection around the center of circulation. Also, it was hard to see a distinct surface circulation in the different analyses available. I believe soaking rains for southern Lousisana are going to be Invest 95L's main legacy. It's already produced 5+ inches of rain in some offshore locations according to radar-derived rainfall estimates.


Fig. 1 Meteogram for TRBL1 in Terrebonne Bay, LA. Tabular data are here.


Fig. 2 Base reflectivity from New Orleans, LA at 706PM, July 5. Animated loop.

Invest 96L
430 AM Update
In sum, the 00Z model runs don't present a different picture. It is curious to note that the Canadian Global model does not intensify 96L at all in the 00Z run, while NOGAPS has shifted towards a SE Louisiana landfall. I think the following discussion is still valid.

96L is going to be an interesting feature to forecast. It's still on the edge of a strong wind shear gradient. 40+ knots of shear are on the NE side of 96L, and <10 knots are on the SW side. The "center" of 96L is under about 15 knots of shear. This is likely inhibiting 96L. Nearly all forecast models take 96L NW through the Yucatan peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico. Near the Yucatan itself, sea-surface temperatures are relatively cool, not the best environment for intensification. However, at 25N, 87W there is a hotspot of SST's, which would promote rapid intensification. However, there's currently 20 knots of shear over the hotspot, so the thunderstorms that do form as a result will be well ventilated, and not cause 96L to intensify.

The dynamical models have different takes on how 96L intensifies in the next 120 hours. The 18Z operational GFS strongly intensifies 96L over the hotspot and takes 96L towards Grand Isle, LA. The parallel (for testing model configuration changes) GFS has a similar track, but does not strengthen 96L as much. This indicates uncertainty on how the models are handling the upper-level winds.

The 18Z HWRF solution is much like the parallel GFS solution. The 12Z Canadian global model has a more westerly track, pushing 96L towards Port Arthur, but it strengthens 96L right before it makes landfall, not when it's over open water. NOGAPS takes the "a little from column A, a little from column B" approach, with a spinup over the hotspot (op. GFS solution), but a westerly landfall (the Canadian solution). More data to initialize the models from synoptic reconnaissance flights will help reduce uncertainty.

The bottom line, 96L will move into the Gulf of Mexico and is then shrouded by the mists of uncertainty. I also think that it's a possibility (>50%) that it will become a tropical cyclone sometime in the next 48-72 hours (leaning towards sometime in day 2-3 based on the model runs.)


Fig. 3 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 GFS model run.Parallel GFS version.


Fig. 4 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 HWRF model run.


Fig. 5 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 12Z July 5 CMC global model run.NOGAPS wind swath.

Next update
I'll probably tweak this blog later tonight as new model runs come in. I'll have a full update tomorrow afternoon (Pacific time).

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Quoting btwntx08:
is it me or is 95L looking better and better on radar


It almost looks stalled.

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So what are your thoughts of this? right or wrong?

Channel 12 - Beaumont,TX

The forecast models have really backed off on tropical development with the systems we are currently monitoring.

A disorganized system in the Western Caribbean, near the Yucatan, has not developed. The models, just yesterday, were forecasting strong development with this system as it moved into the Bay of Campeche Wednesday. Today, they are just showing a weak area of low pressure Wednesday that then moves into Northeast Mexico/South Texas Thursday.

Elsewhere, a tropical wave in the Eastern Caribbean is not showing signs of development.
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
Quoting PtownBryan:


Thanks for the info! We went through Ike and the generator has not been checked or used since then. I will do a check up on the generator tomorrow. Should I dump the old gas that is in it(if there even is any), and check the oil? Anything else I should do? Thanks!
First off, always chack the oil because air cooled engines do use oil (New or Old). Furthermore, you should check the oil every time you have to fill the generator with gas, and change it atleast every 30 to 40 hours. Yes you should dump the gas out of the tank if it smells stail, if not it should be fine. Stail gas does have a distinct oder. The most important thing to remember is to not leave gas in the carberator because the smaller the quanitity the quicker the deteration.
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Quoting btwntx08:
is it me or is 95L looking better and better on radar


No, it's not just you. I must say, I'm quite perplexed. For over a day now, the steering pattern has favored a NW motion right into southeast Louisiana. However, now that it has moved ashore, it appears to have moved back offshore, which is odd, in light of the overall synoptic steering pattern. Perhaps this is just temporary?

In any case, the NHC said it had moved inland, as did I. So weird.
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BahaHurican, taco2me61, aquak9 . & spathy thanks for all your responses I really appreaciate it.
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Quoting spathy:
GTCool.
Well I am no met but have been here in Florida since 88.
In 05 it was common to have late season fronts here in SW.Fl.
With the A/B high setup this year It would be unusual to have fronts pass through the state very far South.
But having them stall over the North part of Florida may happen on the rare occasion they get that far.
Any one else because that question was on my mind

How ironic I was born in 88, lol but furthermore I was wondering if this would be the last of these fronts until like October/November time frame. I know because the Tampa Bay Hurricane of 1921 I think was an October hurricane if I'm not mistaken.
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Ok, let's try this again. Here are two links to how to make a home made mosquito trap that really works that I use myself. The only difference is that I use black electrical tape to wrap up the whole thing with. For those who have mosquito problems now because of all the rain.
Link

Link
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Quoting 850Realtor:
Wow...the blog has really slowed to a crawl now. Roll Call!

Can anyone post the image of the latest steering winds for 96L?
thats what happens when empty space is created
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Really gotta go now... after midnight... may not turn into a pumpkin, but wouldn't stick around to find out what DOES happen...

Good night to all, and to all a good night.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22322
Quoting KoritheMan:


Low-level steering:



Mid-level steering:



You need to post the image URL's, not the page URLs. Those don't work in images.
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Quoting aquak9:
whoa keeper you're alive? I'd figure'd ya done melted by now.

iam still here
but maybe by the end of the week i will be pretty done
the heat is on till sat
then one or two day cool down
then back for monday of next week
the next month and a half is gonna be hot today was the hottest my PWS recorded air temp of 95.6 humidex of 112 today
forecast says wed will be hottest before it comes down some
we are in the the middle of a heat wave i guss u can say
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.
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Quoting ajcamsmom2:
All this talk of generators made me get up and find the phone...Made my now standard, precautionary hotel reservations for Wed night...Just in case...Have made reservations for every storm since Katrina...Learned my lesson well....Hope when my kids grow up that they follow my example with this if they stay in this or any other Coastal area....

You know that is not a bad plan, But when you work
for a city such as I do you can't leave and sometimes
I really hate that part....

But anyway very "Good Plan"

Taco :o)
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Wow...the blog has really slowed to a crawl now. Roll Call!

Can anyone post the image of the latest steering winds for 96L?
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keeper
your aim was true
my merciless mercenary
I hold removed posts like roses
to my heart
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.
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All this talk of generators made me get up and find the phone...Made my now standard, precautionary hotel reservations for Wed night...Just in case...Have made reservations for every storm since Katrina...Learned my lesson well....Hope when my kids grow up that they follow my example with this if they stay in this or any other Coastal area....
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Just shedding some light on 95L..

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Mosquito problem has already started here in the RGV...can't go outside my house without being bombarded by them and they're HUGE!
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Quoting aquak9:


GT- I'll try.

yes the stalled cool front over fla is indeed unusual this time of year....just like Keeper (in canada) seein' a humiture of over 100 at 10am. BUT, we;re more tropical, trades are more transient. Not saying it's gonna be gone in a day or two- it won't be- but the general...uhm, "historical" paths of storms right now, will change as Season%u2122 progresses.

In other words, rest between invests. We're all gonna need it.


Observed at: Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 11:00 PM EDT Monday 5 July 2010
Condition: Mostly Cloudy
Pressure: 29.99 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 12 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 5

Temperature: 84.0F
Dewpoint: 73.2F
Humidity: 70 %
Wind: WSW 9 mph
Humidex: 102


PWS OBSERVATIONS
86.5 HUMIDEX 104
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whoa keeper you're alive? I'd figure'd ya done melted by now.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Hey yo anybody care to answer my question plz...

This stalled out cold front over FL. is kind of unusual for this time of the year. So does anyone see this pattern continuing and what implications does this have for the rest of the hurricane season??
Hey, coolie... This is unusual, this front. Immediate implication is that in a couple days we could be seeing a sub-tropical something out east of the Bahamas, which would not be atypical for this part of the season. For the rest of the season? IDK. Could at least potentially mean that there may be a predeliction towards a weakness in the area - could be just an anomolous weather pattern...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22322
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Hey yo anybody care to answer my question plz...

This stalled out cold front over FL. is kind of unusual for this time of the year. So does anyone see this pattern continuing and what implications does this have for the rest of the hurricane season??


GT- I'll try.

yes the stalled cool front over fla is indeed unusual this time of year....just like Keeper (in canada) seein' a humiture of over 100º at 10am. BUT, we;re more tropical, trades are more transient. Not saying it's gonna be gone in a day or two- it won't be- but the general...uhm, "historical" paths of storms right now, will change as Season™ progresses.

In other words, rest between invests. We're all gonna need it.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Hey yo anybody care to answer my question plz...

This stalled out cold front over FL. is kind of unusual for this time of the year. So does anyone see this pattern continuing and what implications does this have for the rest of the hurricane season??

Well I'm no Met but I can tell you it is not that
unusual for frontal boundries to make it this
far south this time of year. But by the middle
of the month of July they will be no more until
end of October first of November... Now will it
have any implications on Hurricane season I just
donot think so....
Now remember this is my opinion and I'm not a Met....

Taco :o)
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Quoting angiest:


Local weather actually just mentioned some remnant moisture from Alex in SW Texas. That system just won't go away.

I'm expecting the explosion of mosquitoes here to begin any day now.


TXC479-061926-
/O.CON.KCRP.FL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LDOT2.3.ER.100702T0824Z.100708T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
826 PM CDT MON JUL 5 2010

...FORECAST FLOODING INCREASED FROM MODERATE TO MAJOR SEVERITY...
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE RIO GRANDE AT LAREDO.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 8:15 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 31.2 FEET BY
THURSDAY MORNING THEN BEGIN FALLING.

* AT 32.0 FEET OR 9.8 METERS...THE LOWEST BUSINESSES NEAR THE RIVER
FLOOD IN DOWNTOWN LAREDO. RUNOFF DOWN FROM CHACON AND ZACATE CREEKS
ADD TO THE RIO GRANDE RIVER BACKFLOW...AND CAN FLOOD HOMES ALONG
THESE CREEKS. STREETS AND BRIDGES ARE FLOODED AND ARE EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS TO TRAFFIC.
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I'll tell ya, the viper called 95l and i am going to listen to viper. viper seems to do well with these tropical systems. i think 96l will develop.
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gambler...you're as bad as me...sayin' g'nite and all, and still you're here.

addiction....i understand.
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Did someone have an image earlier that showed the steering winds shifting east for 96L?
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Quoting AllBoardedUp:
I'm wondering that as well. Am I going to wake up to a downpour in the morning here in Galveston?


my thoughts exactly. i live in beaumont area. a stubborn little system.
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Hey yo anybody care to answer my question plz...

This stalled out cold front over FL. is kind of unusual for this time of the year. So does anyone see this pattern continuing and what implications does this have for the rest of the hurricane season??
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Quoting basscat71:
am i just imagining things or is 95L moving west?
help me out!
I'm wondering that as well. Am I going to wake up to a downpour in the morning here in Galveston?
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Quoting BoyRoy:


I've been lurking on this blog since 2004, but never posted until now. I don't know very much about the weather and I leave that to the pros, such as Stormw, Weather456, Levi, Drakeon, and alike. However, when it comes to generators, (small engines in general), I do know about! A freindly and hopefully helpful piece of knowledge is to make sure, (and most generators should have them) that you turn of the gas valve coming out of the fuel tank and let the generator die due to running out of gas instead of turning of the kill switch. Most will probably wonder why that is important, and I will do my best to explain.

First off, I would like to let everyone know that riding out a hurricane may get ones adrenalin pumping, such as Frances, Jeanne that I road out, but the after affects cause the most chaos.

Gas in smaller quanities (such in the carborator) will become stail much quicker than larger quanities (such in the gas tank). When you run your generator's carberator dry of gas by letting it die, you insure that the next time you go start your generator it will start without problems. I must mention that stail gas setting in a carberator will gum up the jets in the carberator (regardless of the age of the generator) and your generator will not start when you need it most.

I hope I explained this so it's understandable. Most may thank I'm jibbering, but hopefully this will help some, so they are not stuck without atleast a generator when the winds blow there way.
Quoting BoyRoy:


I've been lurking on this blog since 2004, but never posted until now. I don't know very much about the weather and I leave that to the pros, such as Stormw, Weather456, Levi, Drakeon, and alike. However, when it comes to generators, (small engines in general), I do know about! A freindly and hopefully helpful piece of knowledge is to make sure, (and most generators should have them) that you turn of the gas valve coming out of the fuel tank and let the generator die due to running out of gas instead of turning of the kill switch. Most will probably wonder why that is important, and I will do my best to explain.

First off, I would like to let everyone know that riding out a hurricane may get ones adrenalin pumping, such as Frances, Jeanne that I road out, but the after affects cause the most chaos.

Gas in smaller quanities (such in the carborator) will become stail much quicker than larger quanities (such in the gas tank). When you run your generator's carberator dry of gas by letting it die, you insure that the next time you go start your generator it will start without problems. I must mention that stail gas setting in a carberator will gum up the jets in the carberator (regardless of the age of the generator) and your generator will not start when you need it most.

I hope I explained this so it's understandable. Most may thank I'm jibbering, but hopefully this will help some, so they are not stuck without atleast a generator when the winds blow there way.


Thanks, BoyRoy. I get my generator out for a start-up every six weeks or so and I use Sta-bil, but I confess I don't run the carburetor dry. I'll add your recommendation to my strategy--Your counsel makes much sense.
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Quoting FKlusmann:

The mosquitoes are crazzy now.
I was saving my rainwater in big tubs on the droughty ECFL coast for the dendrocalamus giganteus v. quail-future windbreak that I ordered last week until I noticed the wriggling larvae action.
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am i just imagining things or is 95L moving west?
help me out!
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Don't run it empty if it is a diesel!
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very impressive radar imagery for 95L, heavy "convection" is forming
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Quoting BoyRoy:


I've been lurking on this blog since 2004, but never posted until now. I don't know very much about the weather and I leave that to the pros, such as Stormw, Weather456, Levi, Drakeon, and alike. However, when it comes to generators, (small engines in general), I do know about! A freindly and hopefully helpful piece of knowledge is to make sure, (and most generators should have them) that you turn of the gas valve coming out of the fuel tank and let the generator die due to running out of gas instead of turning of the kill switch. Most will probably wonder why that is important, and I will do my best to explain.

First off, I would like to let everyone know that riding out a hurricane may get ones adrenalin pumping, such as Frances, Jeanne that I road out, but the after affects cause the most chaos.

Gas in smaller quanities (such in the carborator) will become stail much quicker than larger quanities (such in the gas tank). When you run your generator's carberator dry of gas by letting it die, you insure that the next time you go start your generator it will start without problems. I must mention that stail gas setting in a carberator will gum up the jets in the carberator (regardless of the age of the generator) and your generator will not start when you need it most.

I hope I explained this so it's understandable. Most may thank I'm jibbering, but hopefully this will help some, so they are not stuck without atleast a generator when the winds blow there way.


Thanks for the info! We went through Ike and the generator has not been checked or used since then. I will do a check up on the generator tomorrow. Should I dump the old gas that is in it(if there even is any), and check the oil? Anything else I should do? Thanks!
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Ohh wow mobilebay, I just realized that is Middle Bay House in your avitar..COOL
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
Nice parting shot Pat. Have to say that I continue to be amazed by 95L.
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Not too impressed with 96L overall...I'd have to give this a 30% chance of developing in the next 48 hours
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Quoting TXCaneCrasher:
Thanks Pat....I know you aren't a Met but you make some really good posts with awesome information. I just thought you may have some additional insight for me. Thanks again


And some pretty darn good poetry once in awhile, too.
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Night mobilebay. be back some time tomorrow
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
NOLA Met Bob Brecks Site with Viper
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128701
Good night msgambler!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.