Invest 95L Brushes Louisiana Coastline

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:42 AM GMT on July 06, 2010

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Hi all,

Dr. Rob Carver, filling in for Jeff this week.

Midnight CDT Update
The low known as Invest 95L stopped it's northward progression and is now moving west along the Louisiana coastline. This is the oddest mesoscale convective complex/tropical feature I've seen in awhile. It's still producing a lot of rain, 2+ inches inland and 6+ inches over the ocean.


Base reflectivity from Lake Charles, LA at 11PM July 5 showing a very nice comma head. Animated loop.


Invest 95L is making landfall now in southern Louisiana near Terrebonne Bay. A CMAN station in Terrebonne Bay is currently reporting winds from the SE at 21 mph and the pressure is 1009 mb. Looking at the radar data, Invest 95L never had convection around the center of circulation. Also, it was hard to see a distinct surface circulation in the different analyses available. I believe soaking rains for southern Lousisana are going to be Invest 95L's main legacy. It's already produced 5+ inches of rain in some offshore locations according to radar-derived rainfall estimates.


Fig. 1 Meteogram for TRBL1 in Terrebonne Bay, LA. Tabular data are here.


Fig. 2 Base reflectivity from New Orleans, LA at 706PM, July 5. Animated loop.

Invest 96L
430 AM Update
In sum, the 00Z model runs don't present a different picture. It is curious to note that the Canadian Global model does not intensify 96L at all in the 00Z run, while NOGAPS has shifted towards a SE Louisiana landfall. I think the following discussion is still valid.

96L is going to be an interesting feature to forecast. It's still on the edge of a strong wind shear gradient. 40+ knots of shear are on the NE side of 96L, and <10 knots are on the SW side. The "center" of 96L is under about 15 knots of shear. This is likely inhibiting 96L. Nearly all forecast models take 96L NW through the Yucatan peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico. Near the Yucatan itself, sea-surface temperatures are relatively cool, not the best environment for intensification. However, at 25N, 87W there is a hotspot of SST's, which would promote rapid intensification. However, there's currently 20 knots of shear over the hotspot, so the thunderstorms that do form as a result will be well ventilated, and not cause 96L to intensify.

The dynamical models have different takes on how 96L intensifies in the next 120 hours. The 18Z operational GFS strongly intensifies 96L over the hotspot and takes 96L towards Grand Isle, LA. The parallel (for testing model configuration changes) GFS has a similar track, but does not strengthen 96L as much. This indicates uncertainty on how the models are handling the upper-level winds.

The 18Z HWRF solution is much like the parallel GFS solution. The 12Z Canadian global model has a more westerly track, pushing 96L towards Port Arthur, but it strengthens 96L right before it makes landfall, not when it's over open water. NOGAPS takes the "a little from column A, a little from column B" approach, with a spinup over the hotspot (op. GFS solution), but a westerly landfall (the Canadian solution). More data to initialize the models from synoptic reconnaissance flights will help reduce uncertainty.

The bottom line, 96L will move into the Gulf of Mexico and is then shrouded by the mists of uncertainty. I also think that it's a possibility (>50%) that it will become a tropical cyclone sometime in the next 48-72 hours (leaning towards sometime in day 2-3 based on the model runs.)


Fig. 3 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 GFS model run.Parallel GFS version.


Fig. 4 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 HWRF model run.


Fig. 5 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 12Z July 5 CMC global model run.NOGAPS wind swath.

Next update
I'll probably tweak this blog later tonight as new model runs come in. I'll have a full update tomorrow afternoon (Pacific time).

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Quoting btwntx08:
it briefly made landfall earlier but it came offshore about 20 mi and its getting its act together IT seems


Yup, and it's only 30 miles southeast of me. The rain is a'coming.
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Quoting TampaSpin:



hmm?? that system at the end of the run is that from the wave in the eastern carib. or central atl.?
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Quoting helove2trac:
i am ready for 97L is it one in the making

I think that wave in the central atlantic will become 97L
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Quoting leo305:
would not be suprised if we have TD2 by tomorrow morning with 95L, continually growing "convective" wise and getting better organized at the surface.. plus the pressure is gradually dropping.


iT'L probably make lanfall by then, if it hasn't already done so.
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would not be suprised if we have TD2 by tomorrow morning with 95L, continually growing "convective" wise and getting better organized at the surface.. plus the pressure is gradually dropping.

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Quoting BoyRoy:
First off, always chack the oil because air cooled engines do use oil (New or Old). Furthermore, you should check the oil every time you have to fill the generator with gas, and change it atleast every 30 to 40 hours. Yes you should dump the gas out of the tank if it smells stail, if not it should be fine. Stail gas does have a distinct oder. The most important thing to remember is to not leave gas in the carberator because the smaller the quanitity the quicker the deteration.


Thanks Royboy!
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nite keeper
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anyway off to bed catch ya all in the am its 68f inside my apartment with humity levels around 32 percent iam a chillin

current outside conditions
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 12:00 AM EDT Tuesday 6 July 2010
Condition: Mostly Cloudy
Pressure: 29.99 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 10 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 5

Temperature: 82.2°F
Dewpoint: 72.7°F
Humidity: 73 %
Wind: WSW 8 mph
Humidex: 100


PWS OBSERVATIONS
AIR TEMP 85.8F
HUMIDEX 103.6F

see ya in the am
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Quoting basscat71:


my thoughts exactly. i live in beaumont area. a stubborn little system.


I live in Pearland, and watched the local news tonight. Looks like we have an increase in rain potential tomorrow due to this low. So it is definitely possible!
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Quoting StormGoddess:

Thanks. :) Yes, I am quite liberal with the yeast as well. They do seem to put out a lot of CO2 to attract the mosquitos. After a heavy rain though it seems that the mixture then needs to be replaced.
I found a commercial one on the tubez called the "Mosquito Magnet® Commercial Pro" on sale for "only" $699.00. It says in the pitch: "The Mosquito Magnet Emits A Warm, Moist Plume Of Carbon Dioxide That Mimics The Exhaled Breath Of Humans"

Basically how it works is they burn propane to make CO2 and heat water, then blow the moist CO2 out and vacuum the mosquitoes into a fine net that traps them. University of Florida IFAS warns that these expensive commercial traps "are no magic bullet".
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96 hours out.....HUM!
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i am ready for 97L is it one in the making
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Quoting spathy:

Clean the air filter!
And dont dump the gas!
Dispose properly.


Thanks Spathy will do!
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Poor Little guy is just south of New Iberia
rotation still clear, should come in around TX/LA border tonight.

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Quoting Levi32:


Yeah I think central Texas coast to SW LA is most likely. I don't really see it getting as far east as NOLA due to the ridge over the southeast US, but they should keep a lookout too. The fact that 96L developed much to the northeast of where the models were forecasting it to is what is putting the U.S. at risk, otherwise it would have been another Alex track into Mexico.


ok, thanks.
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
Quoting TexasHurricane:


ok, I will continue to keep a look out. I am assuming the thought is still a TX landfall or LA?


Yeah I think central Texas coast to SW LA is most likely. I don't really see it getting as far east as NOLA due to the ridge over the southeast US, but they should keep a lookout too. The fact that 96L developed much to the northeast of where the models were forecasting it to is what is putting the U.S. at risk, otherwise it would have been another Alex track into Mexico.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:
i live in east haven conn its was so hot outside the temp was 98F TODAY.

Whew, your making me sweat we actually had a few near or at 100 degree days here in Tampa a few weeks ago. It's was just so relentless and unbearable. Imagine I went up in the attic to pack away a few things in my messy garage,up there felt like a boiler room, and when I got down my shirt was drenched i had not been up there for little more than a few min. Now were getting just the opposite. Rain cool air, albeit muggy and humid. The pools must've been jammed pack today! I remember in 2005 when I went up to Jersey and boyy was it hot, my aunt had no a/c so me & my cousin had to end up buying one of those that you stick outside your windows, lol.
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Quoting 850Realtor:
Wow...the blog has really slowed to a crawl now. Roll Call!

Can anyone post the image of the latest steering winds for 96L?








The 18z surface map shows the high off the East coast digging w and the current steering map reflects this. Here is Steering maps.
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Quoting Levi32:


It's another typhoon-like development similar to Alex and systems like that need lots of time to consolidate. Development can take forever, but if given favorable conditions and enough time, they usually find a way to develop. Conditions are fine, 96L is not getting sheared, and so the question is whether or not it will run out of time. It is more likely to develop if it heads for Texas as that will give it the most time to consolidate. A track more towards SW LA would give it a little less time.

Do I think it will have enough time to develop? I think it has a good shot at it. The biggest problem here is the models are too fast. The GFS has this making landfall near TX/LA border in 48 hours....not gonna happen. The steering pattern is too fragile for that kind of rapid movement. If you notice the surface center did take off northward today into the gulf but the mid-levels are sluggish, as they usually are, and since they are showing dominance over the surface center today (opposite of Alex), it can be assumed that short-term movement will be slow towards the northwest. 96L wasn't ready to leave the Caribbean yet today.

This over-estimation of 96L's speed by the models is one reason why they don't forecast it to develop, and if it is given an extra day or so of time before landfall it may have a chance. Right now it's still disorganized. We'll see how it looks when it gets into the gulf.


ok, I will continue to keep a look out. I am assuming the thought is still a TX landfall or LA?
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
Hmm, a lot of lightning just popped up in 95L offshore.

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As channel 7 out of Lake Charles has suggested, it's a coast hugger, and will be so until in the AM hours. Rain maker. We've had several gusts lately.
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Quoting TexasHurricane:
Levi, What is your thoughts of 96L? Our local channel basically says to forget about it...


It's another typhoon-like development similar to Alex and systems like that need lots of time to consolidate. Development can take forever, but if given favorable conditions and enough time, they usually find a way to develop. Conditions are fine, 96L is not getting sheared, and so the question is whether or not it will run out of time. It is more likely to develop if it heads for Texas as that will give it the most time to consolidate. A track more towards SW LA would give it a little less time.

Do I think it will have enough time to develop? I think it has a good shot at it. The biggest problem here is the models are too fast. The GFS has this making landfall near TX/LA border in 48 hours....not gonna happen. The steering pattern is too fragile for that kind of rapid movement. If you notice the surface center did take off northward today into the gulf but the mid-levels are sluggish, as they usually are, and since they are showing dominance over the surface center today (opposite of Alex), it can be assumed that short-term movement will be slow towards the northwest. 96L wasn't ready to leave the Caribbean yet today.

This over-estimation of 96L's speed by the models is one reason why they don't forecast it to develop, and if it is given an extra day or so of time before landfall it may have a chance. Right now it's still disorganized. We'll see how it looks when it gets into the gulf.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
I have lived on the Mississippi Gulf Coast for almost 45 years. I have seen numerous storms loop here and twist there and double back on themselves. It kind of looks to me like 95l is gonna pull that little trick. Any likelihood on that?
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Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:


I wish that I could say the current forecast is good, but it's not. The trough that would usually protect the Eastern Seaboard is not expected to return this year.

We're looking at the perfect storm of situations right now. This could change, but I believe our recent cold snap here on the East Coast was due in part to hurricane Alex.






So Oracle if you had to say a year in terms of tracks what year (most recent) would this one compare too?
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just dodged Jason, even boarded up just to be ahead of the game. Corpus Christi here, how much should I be worried about 96 right now or in the next few days?
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Quoting guygee:
Very good info StormGoddess those are keepers. Commercial mosquito traps have the same basic principle, the critters are attracted to CO2.

Thanks. :) Yes, I am quite liberal with the yeast as well. They do seem to put out a lot of CO2 to attract the mosquitos. After a heavy rain though it seems that the mixture then needs to be replaced.
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Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:
last summer is was raining and cool but this summer is hot and no cool weather at all. look like a hot summer and fall for the northeast..

What part of the Northeast you from Jason?
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Observed at: Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 11:00 PM EDT Monday 5 July 2010
Condition: Mostly Cloudy
Pressure: 29.99 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 12 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 5

Temperature: 84.0�F
Dewpoint: 73.2�F
Humidity: 70 %
Wind: WSW 9 mph
Humidex: 102


PWS OBSERVATIONS
86.5 HUMIDEX 104

That's just insane, I could remember when I was a kid & would travel up there every summer to see my relatives and this one year I went it was really hot & they took me to this really cool spot to swim. I think it's headed North on 400 towards Barrie. But yeah when it gets hot over there it really gets hot!
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Quoting putintang3:
hey STormGoddess my daughter made those sketter traps for a science fair project.. She went to state with it. They really do work.

Yes, they really do. :)
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Levi, What is your thoughts of 96L? Our local channel basically says to forget about it...
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:


I wish that I could say the current forecast is good, but it's not. The trough that would usually protect the Eastern Seaboard is not expected to return this year.

We're looking at the perfect storm of situations right now. This could change, but I believe our recent cold snap here on the East Coast was due in part to hurricane Alex.







Yes that seems to be true. When the CV storms start coming and they will.....does not seem like many fish storms. What might happen is the B/A HIgh might be strong and steer everything into Mexico as we have seen so far. Time will tell tho.
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Quoting TexasHurricane:


Where are you located?


lumberton, just north of beaumont
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Quoting StormGoddess:
Ok, let's try this again. Here are two links to how to make a home made mosquito trap that really works that I use myself. The only difference is that I use black electrical tape to wrap up the whole thing with. For those who have mosquito problems now because of all the rain.
Link

Link
Very good info StormGoddess those are keepers. Commercial mosquito traps have the same basic principle, the critters are attracted to CO2.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


No, it's not just you. I must say, I'm quite perplexed. For over a day now, the steering pattern has favored a NW motion right into southeast Louisiana. However, now that it has moved ashore, it appears to have moved back offshore, which is odd, in light of the overall synoptic steering pattern. Perhaps this is just temporary?

In any case, the NHC said it had moved inland, as did I. So weird.


The ridge over the south is stronger than it appears to be, and that is something we will see a lot of this season. A WNW motion for 95L makes sense here, and any southerly component taking it back offshore should only be temporary.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
Quoting basscat71:


i think the three local stations here in se tx always downplay any tropical event that is more than 2 days away.


Where are you located?
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
Quoting TexasHurricane:
So what are your thoughts of this? right or wrong?

Channel 12 - Beaumont,TX

The forecast models have really backed off on tropical development with the systems we are currently monitoring.

A disorganized system in the Western Caribbean, near the Yucatan, has not developed. The models, just yesterday, were forecasting strong development with this system as it moved into the Bay of Campeche Wednesday. Today, they are just showing a weak area of low pressure Wednesday that then moves into Northeast Mexico/South Texas Thursday.

Elsewhere, a tropical wave in the Eastern Caribbean is not showing signs of development.


i think the three local stations here in se tx always downplay any tropical event that is more than 2 days away.
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hey STormGoddess my daughter made those sketter traps for a science fair project.. She went to state with it. They really do work.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
This stalled out cold front over FL. is kind of unusual for this time of the year. So does anyone see this pattern continuing and what implications does this have for the rest of the hurricane season??


I wish that I could say the current forecast is good, but it's not. The trough that would usually protect the Eastern Seaboard is not expected to return this year.

We're looking at the perfect storm of situations right now. This could change, but I believe our recent cold snap here on the East Coast was due in part to hurricane Alex.





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Quoting TexasHurricane:
So what are your thoughts of this? right or wrong?

Channel 12 - Beaumont,TX

The forecast models have really backed off on tropical development with the systems we are currently monitoring.

A disorganized system in the Western Caribbean, near the Yucatan, has not developed. The models, just yesterday, were forecasting strong development with this system as it moved into the Bay of Campeche Wednesday. Today, they are just showing a weak area of low pressure Wednesday that then moves into Northeast Mexico/South Texas Thursday.

Elsewhere, a tropical wave in the Eastern Caribbean is not showing signs of development.


I disagree with the the analysis for 96L (though the Caribbean system isn't showing signs of development at this time -- they are correct). The steering pattern favors a track toward southeast Texas, and upper-level winds still appear conducive for some slow development as it traverses the southern and central Gulf of Mexico.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
BahaHurican, taco2me61, aquak9 . & spathy thanks for all your responses I really appreaciate it.

You are so welcome....
Ok all I'm out for the night....
4am comes early for me....
Everyone have a wonderful night and will see tomorrow

Taco :o)
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Quoting btwntx08:
is it me or is 95L looking better and better on radar


It almost looks stalled.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.