Invest 95L Brushes Louisiana Coastline

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:42 AM GMT on July 06, 2010

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Hi all,

Dr. Rob Carver, filling in for Jeff this week.

Midnight CDT Update
The low known as Invest 95L stopped it's northward progression and is now moving west along the Louisiana coastline. This is the oddest mesoscale convective complex/tropical feature I've seen in awhile. It's still producing a lot of rain, 2+ inches inland and 6+ inches over the ocean.


Base reflectivity from Lake Charles, LA at 11PM July 5 showing a very nice comma head. Animated loop.


Invest 95L is making landfall now in southern Louisiana near Terrebonne Bay. A CMAN station in Terrebonne Bay is currently reporting winds from the SE at 21 mph and the pressure is 1009 mb. Looking at the radar data, Invest 95L never had convection around the center of circulation. Also, it was hard to see a distinct surface circulation in the different analyses available. I believe soaking rains for southern Lousisana are going to be Invest 95L's main legacy. It's already produced 5+ inches of rain in some offshore locations according to radar-derived rainfall estimates.


Fig. 1 Meteogram for TRBL1 in Terrebonne Bay, LA. Tabular data are here.


Fig. 2 Base reflectivity from New Orleans, LA at 706PM, July 5. Animated loop.

Invest 96L
430 AM Update
In sum, the 00Z model runs don't present a different picture. It is curious to note that the Canadian Global model does not intensify 96L at all in the 00Z run, while NOGAPS has shifted towards a SE Louisiana landfall. I think the following discussion is still valid.

96L is going to be an interesting feature to forecast. It's still on the edge of a strong wind shear gradient. 40+ knots of shear are on the NE side of 96L, and <10 knots are on the SW side. The "center" of 96L is under about 15 knots of shear. This is likely inhibiting 96L. Nearly all forecast models take 96L NW through the Yucatan peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico. Near the Yucatan itself, sea-surface temperatures are relatively cool, not the best environment for intensification. However, at 25N, 87W there is a hotspot of SST's, which would promote rapid intensification. However, there's currently 20 knots of shear over the hotspot, so the thunderstorms that do form as a result will be well ventilated, and not cause 96L to intensify.

The dynamical models have different takes on how 96L intensifies in the next 120 hours. The 18Z operational GFS strongly intensifies 96L over the hotspot and takes 96L towards Grand Isle, LA. The parallel (for testing model configuration changes) GFS has a similar track, but does not strengthen 96L as much. This indicates uncertainty on how the models are handling the upper-level winds.

The 18Z HWRF solution is much like the parallel GFS solution. The 12Z Canadian global model has a more westerly track, pushing 96L towards Port Arthur, but it strengthens 96L right before it makes landfall, not when it's over open water. NOGAPS takes the "a little from column A, a little from column B" approach, with a spinup over the hotspot (op. GFS solution), but a westerly landfall (the Canadian solution). More data to initialize the models from synoptic reconnaissance flights will help reduce uncertainty.

The bottom line, 96L will move into the Gulf of Mexico and is then shrouded by the mists of uncertainty. I also think that it's a possibility (>50%) that it will become a tropical cyclone sometime in the next 48-72 hours (leaning towards sometime in day 2-3 based on the model runs.)


Fig. 3 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 GFS model run.Parallel GFS version.


Fig. 4 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 HWRF model run.


Fig. 5 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 12Z July 5 CMC global model run.NOGAPS wind swath.

Next update
I'll probably tweak this blog later tonight as new model runs come in. I'll have a full update tomorrow afternoon (Pacific time).

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Evening all. I'm 20 miles north of Lake Charles. Looks like 95L will be coming very close to my home later. Current conditions here are clear with southerly breeze and a variable breeze at times.
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555
ABNT20 KNHC 060531
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE JUL 6 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA
COAST IS PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS NOT
EXPECTED DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH LAND AND THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TODAY.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD BUT DISORGANIZED
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD STILL FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Quoting BoyRoy:


Your welcome. I hope it helps. We never know what mother nature throws at us and this is why we need to do our best to be preprared. After a hurricane the last thing we need is the generator not to start. Just remember the most important thing I'm saying about a generator is to make sure you run the carberator out of gas. The carberator, at most, holds maybe 1 to 2 oz of gas (small quanities equals fast deteration of fuel) Although I didn't mention earlier, I would also start my generator every 3 to 4 months and especially prior to Hurricane season.


Again thanks! I should have paid more attention to this kinda stuff when my grandpa was still here. I am going to work on it tomorrow. So I need to check the filter, empty the old gas, check the oil, and empty the carburetor of gas. How do I get that out?
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Quoting futuremet:


Link


Thanks for the info. :)

Looks like it's either moving northwestward now or collapsing on radar. *shrug* All I know for sure is that we're getting a rain band and it's coming down quite hard.
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00z CMC shows nothing, zilch, nada, rien...
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Unlikely. It'll probably take awhile, if it ever does anything at all.



Yea I am starting to wonder myself!
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Quoting atmoaggie:
The ones that are functioning are clickable here: http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/radares.html
Thanks again Atmo! (Also thnx to btwntx08, missed your post at first).
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Quoting txsweetpea:



Do you think it will "vamp up" then or will it take a while?


Unlikely. It'll probably take awhile, if it ever does anything at all.
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Quoting jlp09550:
Aha, I can hear thunder. Is it bad when there's lightning in a tropical low?



Link
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Quoting KoritheMan:


In the next few hours probably.



Do you think it will "vamp up" then or will it take a while?
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Quoting txsweetpea:
Anybody know when 96l is expected to be in the Gulf?


In the next few hours probably.
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Quoting PtownBryan:


Thanks Royboy!


Your welcome. I hope it helps. We never know what mother nature throws at us and this is why we need to do our best to be preprared. After a hurricane the last thing we need is the generator not to start. Just remember the most important thing I'm saying about a generator is to make sure you run the carberator out of gas. The carberator, at most, holds maybe 1 to 2 oz of gas (small quanities equals fast deteration of fuel) Although I didn't mention earlier, I would also start my generator every 3 to 4 months and especially prior to Hurricane season.
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Quoting txjac:


Got it! Thanks ...and I guess that explains your avatar!


'Cept I cheated and used a pic of a ship being sunk by a Kraken instead of a whale, lol.
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Anybody know when 96l is expected to be in the Gulf?
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Quoting Levi32:
The ITCZ disturbance area near 40W may be a problem down the road in the Caribbean. It has consolidated today and there is a nice tight little curl of low-mid level turning developing with it in recent TPW imagery.





Thanks Levi for mentioning the wave at 40W. You are the maps guy for me. Somehow when I try to upload an image I get a big red X on the front of my screen. In addition my computer is as slow as a turtle.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:


Pretty Healthy Wave at 9N 38W... and it's not even D-MAX!

Link


Thanks! I see now what you mean.
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597. txjac
Quoting CoffinWood:


No worries. I love Melville's Moby Dick, and a "coffin made of American wood" was what Ahab's ship the Pequod turned out to be once it was sunk by the whale.


Got it! Thanks ...and I guess that explains your avatar!
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Aha, I can hear thunder. Is it bad when there's lightning in a tropical low?

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Quoting txjac:
CoffinWood ...now that's one strange handle ...hope that you dont take my comment as being rude ...but how did you come up with that one? Curious here ...


No worries. I love Melville's Moby Dick, and a "coffin made of American wood" was what Ahab's ship the Pequod turned out to be once it was sunk by the whale.
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Quoting txsweetpea:



Me too...I like Greg Bostwick.


he has been around for quite a while
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The ITCZ disturbance area near 40W may be a problem down the road in the Caribbean. It has consolidated today and there is a nice tight little curl of low-mid level turning developing with it in recent TPW imagery.



Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
Quoting CoffinWood:


What do you see about it that you like in terms of becoming 97L?


Pretty Healthy Wave at 9N 38W... and it's not even D-MAX!

Link
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Quoting TexasHurricane:


Don't watch to much...mainly check the websites. I check both, channel 6 and 12. They usually vary from each other. I tend to listen more to Greg Bostwick.



Me too...I like Greg Bostwick.
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Quoting guygee:
Anyone have a good link to Cancun Radar site? It seems some Mexican Radars a pretty "far out", like this "radar image" from Sabancuy near Ciudad Del Carmen on the west Yucatan Peninsula coast. I am afraid to put that one into motion, lol.
The ones that are functioning are clickable here: http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/radares.html
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587. txjac
Quoting guygee:
Anyone have a good link to Cancun Radar site? It seems some Mexican Radars a pretty "far out", like this "radar image" from Sabancuy near Ciudad Del Carmen on the west Yucatan Peninsula coast. I am afraid to put that one into motion, lol.



Gotta agree with ya ...that is one strange one...watch it with flashing lights and it could cause a seizure!
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Quoting btwntx08:
i think the model is wrong it cant go that fast based on sterring


The models have been right?
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Nevermind TxHurricane...saw your post Ch. 12....I wouldn't watch anything but Channel 6 - KFDM.
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Quoting CoopNTexas:
TexasHurricane...what local pro met are you watching?


Don't watch to much...mainly check the websites. I check both, channel 6 and 12. They usually vary from each other. I tend to listen more to Greg Bostwick.
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Anyone have a good link to Cancun Radar site? It seems some Mexican Radars are pretty "far out", like this "radar image" from Sabancuy near Ciudad Del Carmen on the west Yucatan Peninsula coast. I am afraid to put that one into motion, lol.
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581. txjac
CoffinWood ...now that's one strange handle ...hope that you dont take my comment as being rude ...but how did you come up with that one? Curious here ...
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Night all :)




AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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TexasHurricane...what local pro met are you watching?
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Quoting CoopNTexas:
0z CMC, GFS does not develop 96L...heavy rainmaker


I can certainly see why...i'm leaning towards that also
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Candian brings the heavy rain and energy into SE LA, MS, AL, and FL panhandle

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0z CMC, GFS does not develop 96L...heavy rainmaker
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I think it will be a little while before we get something significant to track. Conditions in the Atlantic basin are marginal for development. There seems to be more dry air and shear in place which is normal for July. 96L looks like it might not even develop into a TD at this point. By the time 96L gets it's act together and has a good environment it will be getting close to land.. I see a a lot of all bark and no bite at the moment. July is typically a slow month with everything really changing in the atmosphere for the real dance. August and September are going to be when the real fireworks start. I think those 2 months and possibly the first 2 weeks of October will be very similar to 2005 imo.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:

I think that wave in the central atlantic will become 97L


What do you see about it that you like in terms of becoming 97L?
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Quoting btwntx08:
it briefly made landfall earlier but it came offshore about 20 mi and its getting its act together IT seems


Yup, and it's only 30 miles southeast of me. The rain is a'coming.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.