Invest 95L Brushes Louisiana Coastline

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:42 AM GMT on July 06, 2010

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Hi all,

Dr. Rob Carver, filling in for Jeff this week.

Midnight CDT Update
The low known as Invest 95L stopped it's northward progression and is now moving west along the Louisiana coastline. This is the oddest mesoscale convective complex/tropical feature I've seen in awhile. It's still producing a lot of rain, 2+ inches inland and 6+ inches over the ocean.


Base reflectivity from Lake Charles, LA at 11PM July 5 showing a very nice comma head. Animated loop.


Invest 95L is making landfall now in southern Louisiana near Terrebonne Bay. A CMAN station in Terrebonne Bay is currently reporting winds from the SE at 21 mph and the pressure is 1009 mb. Looking at the radar data, Invest 95L never had convection around the center of circulation. Also, it was hard to see a distinct surface circulation in the different analyses available. I believe soaking rains for southern Lousisana are going to be Invest 95L's main legacy. It's already produced 5+ inches of rain in some offshore locations according to radar-derived rainfall estimates.


Fig. 1 Meteogram for TRBL1 in Terrebonne Bay, LA. Tabular data are here.


Fig. 2 Base reflectivity from New Orleans, LA at 706PM, July 5. Animated loop.

Invest 96L
430 AM Update
In sum, the 00Z model runs don't present a different picture. It is curious to note that the Canadian Global model does not intensify 96L at all in the 00Z run, while NOGAPS has shifted towards a SE Louisiana landfall. I think the following discussion is still valid.

96L is going to be an interesting feature to forecast. It's still on the edge of a strong wind shear gradient. 40+ knots of shear are on the NE side of 96L, and <10 knots are on the SW side. The "center" of 96L is under about 15 knots of shear. This is likely inhibiting 96L. Nearly all forecast models take 96L NW through the Yucatan peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico. Near the Yucatan itself, sea-surface temperatures are relatively cool, not the best environment for intensification. However, at 25N, 87W there is a hotspot of SST's, which would promote rapid intensification. However, there's currently 20 knots of shear over the hotspot, so the thunderstorms that do form as a result will be well ventilated, and not cause 96L to intensify.

The dynamical models have different takes on how 96L intensifies in the next 120 hours. The 18Z operational GFS strongly intensifies 96L over the hotspot and takes 96L towards Grand Isle, LA. The parallel (for testing model configuration changes) GFS has a similar track, but does not strengthen 96L as much. This indicates uncertainty on how the models are handling the upper-level winds.

The 18Z HWRF solution is much like the parallel GFS solution. The 12Z Canadian global model has a more westerly track, pushing 96L towards Port Arthur, but it strengthens 96L right before it makes landfall, not when it's over open water. NOGAPS takes the "a little from column A, a little from column B" approach, with a spinup over the hotspot (op. GFS solution), but a westerly landfall (the Canadian solution). More data to initialize the models from synoptic reconnaissance flights will help reduce uncertainty.

The bottom line, 96L will move into the Gulf of Mexico and is then shrouded by the mists of uncertainty. I also think that it's a possibility (>50%) that it will become a tropical cyclone sometime in the next 48-72 hours (leaning towards sometime in day 2-3 based on the model runs.)


Fig. 3 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 GFS model run.Parallel GFS version.


Fig. 4 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 HWRF model run.


Fig. 5 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 12Z July 5 CMC global model run.NOGAPS wind swath.

Next update
I'll probably tweak this blog later tonight as new model runs come in. I'll have a full update tomorrow afternoon (Pacific time).

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Quoting IKE:



2005, part 2? Ain't happening, #'s wise. I wonder if these experts will lower their #'s on their next update?

13-7-4 was my pick a few months ago. Maybe I won't be that far off.

After 96L I don't see much in the Atlantic for the next 7-10 days.



I think it is a good possibility they could lower just a little. I do think in August and September we could have storms form in the Caribbean and GOM comparable(intensity)to 2004 and 2005. The water temps are going to be slightly higher this year during the peak of the season than 2005 most likely. I do believe the #s will not be anything close to 2005 though. I do agree we will not see a named storm for another 7-10 days as well. The pattern right now shows something missing for sure. I don't think 96L is going to even get to TD status imo. We shall see.
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669. IKE
Quoting robert88:
The EURO makes sense. Conditions in the Atlantic basin are looking like a typical July. The SAL and dry sinking air are keeping everything in check and shear is a little more widespread in the W Atlantic than it was in June. I don't expect another named storm until mid July or later.



2005, part 2? Ain't happening, #'s wise. I wonder if these experts will lower their #'s on their next update?

13-7-4 was my pick a few months ago. Maybe I won't be that far off.

After 96L I don't see much in the Atlantic for the next 7-10 days.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
The EURO makes sense. Conditions in the Atlantic basin are looking like a typical July. The SAL and dry sinking air are keeping everything in check and shear is a little more widespread in the W Atlantic than it was in June. I don't expect another named storm until mid July or later.
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667. IKE
Quoting futuremet:
00z CMC shows nothing, zilch, nada, rien...


Talk about flip-flopping over 96L...lol.

The 00Z ECMWF doesn't do much w/96L at all.....or anything significant in the Atlantic....
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Looks like 95L decided to hang around a little while! Wow!
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thnks transitzone and btwntx08:)
i just took a shower from water collected from rain and used only 10 liters!! :) that has to be green!!! xD
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Quoting mtyweatherfan90:


Were can I find the data about the levels of us rivers?


Here ya go
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Quoting btwntx08:

yea indeed there is a flood warning for the laredo as the river is forecasted to be at major flood stage


Were can I find the data about the levels of us rivers?
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While everything else is going north and east, the attached-to-the-front, odd convective mesoscale mass is back out over water and headed west.

Naaaah, nothing tropical and significant about this lil ol' thang! ;P


It's called a T R O P I C A L Depression!
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Quoting btwntx08:
also looks like monterrey mx is getting more rains that they dont need desperately flooding is already horrible there


Indeed is raining very hard and radar shows it might continue at least 5 more hours. Right now as of 2 am cdt I'm collecting water with a tray from rain and from the runoffs of the roof. 5 days without water, we desperately need water and outside is still raining!!!!

They're some rumours that two medium dams within northern Nuevo Leon have collapsed and also Sabinas river has crested and some friends living in Piedras Negras next to Del Rio it seems that the Rio Grande has crested there too. WATCH OUT LAREDO, McAllen and BROWNSVILLE!!!!!!
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Best looking INVEST of the 2010 storm season! We are not worthy 95L !!!!


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0z EURO = nada 96L
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Out for now....check back tomorrow.
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646. drj27
anyone think the panhandle is going to get hit bad with storms this year just asking
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645. JLPR2
hmm


Going under the radar LOL, some areas with wind shifts, you can see them spinning somewhat on the Shortwave imagery.
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Just drove by doppler estimated rainfall of ten inches south of Lubbock, Texas from Hurricane Alex. The whole area is running about ten to fifteen degrees cooler over the past week. 96L may take a course slightly north and east of the former track of Alex. It still seems like climatologically the storm could go into Texas this time. There are also many areas that received much less rain. It's been an odd two weeks of some of the hottest temperatures followed by some of the coolest along with widely variable rainfall estimates in the entire region of west Texas and New Mexico from Alex.
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thanks again...goodnight all!
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Quoting btwntx08:
if it doesnt develop it will be a rainmaker for most of tx and la


Agreed.
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Quoting CoopNTexas:
at least a rainmaker, maybe more.


ok...
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
at least a rainmaker, maybe more.
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and one more question...will we get any of this 95L here in se tex?
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and if yall have any ideas on why i cant get pics to load it would be a great help!
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Quoting CoopNTexas:
TxHurr....not tonight...


From my understanding as of right now it will be a rainmaker right? According to channel 6...
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
wow thank yall for giving me at least an idea! so if this is only begining of july how bad will september be for our area? and glad t no theres ppl on here close to home! i went to kfdm and they didnt really say anything about it other than it was something to watch. was kinda hoping since it was not more than 4 days out they could give us lil more to work with. guess will just have to wait. thanks again for replying i trust this blog more than weather staions lol! yall are all awsome!
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TxHurr....not tonight...
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Quoting btwntx08:

shoot i missed read it correctly again shoot


It's okay.

By the way, unrelated, but could you please edit your post and erase the "god ***" part? It doesn't offend me personally, but I know that it will obviously offend others.
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Quoting CoopNTexas:
maryweather...watch KFDM...either Greg or my brother Kerry....


Has there been any updates?
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
maryweather...watch KFDM...either Greg or my brother Kerry....
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Quoting maryweather84:
i live in southeast texas...nederland tx to be exact. can any of you give me an idea if 96L will be may way and how soon if it is? i read this blog all the time just dont no half of what yall do...thanks in advance for any answers!


Hey Mary! I live in Pearland south of Houston. Looks like we could be in for a rain event at the least. The local met's are forecasting as early as Wednesday in the Houston area into Thursday so that will be around the same time for you. Just have to wait and see. I would check back tomorrow afternoon/evening for a better update, more will be known then. That's all I know for now!
Member Since: July 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 170
Quoting maryweather84:
i live in southeast texas...nederland tx to be exact. can any of you give me an idea if 96L will be may way and how soon if it is? i read this blog all the time just dont no half of what yall do...thanks in advance for any answers!


I think the models are being too quick with 96L, though I do strongly resonate with them with regards to a southeast Texas landfall. It should arrive in about 60 hours, IMO.
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i live in southeast texas...nederland tx to be exact. can any of you give me an idea if 96L will be may way and how soon if it is? i read this blog all the time just dont no half of what yall do...thanks in advance for any answers!
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Quoting JRRP:


Looks like only a slight wind shift associated with the system at best. No imminent development, to be sure.
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624. JRRP

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Quoting btwntx08:
pasch also thinks its on land right now he needs to look that its off the coast still


No.


A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA
COAST
IS PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS NOT
EXPECTED DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH LAND AND THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TODAY.
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Quoting PtownBryan:


Again thanks! I should have paid more attention to this kinda stuff when my grandpa was still here. I am going to work on it tomorrow. So I need to check the filter, empty the old gas, check the oil, and empty the carburetor of gas. How do I get that out?


I do the same thing. During hurricane season, I run the generators once a month for 30 minutes then shut the gas valve off and let them run out of gas. I also keep spare spark plugs and a few quarts of 30 weight oil in case I'm running them for extended periods.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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