Invest 95L Brushes Louisiana Coastline

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:42 AM GMT on July 06, 2010

Share this Blog
3
+

Hi all,

Dr. Rob Carver, filling in for Jeff this week.

Midnight CDT Update
The low known as Invest 95L stopped it's northward progression and is now moving west along the Louisiana coastline. This is the oddest mesoscale convective complex/tropical feature I've seen in awhile. It's still producing a lot of rain, 2+ inches inland and 6+ inches over the ocean.


Base reflectivity from Lake Charles, LA at 11PM July 5 showing a very nice comma head. Animated loop.


Invest 95L is making landfall now in southern Louisiana near Terrebonne Bay. A CMAN station in Terrebonne Bay is currently reporting winds from the SE at 21 mph and the pressure is 1009 mb. Looking at the radar data, Invest 95L never had convection around the center of circulation. Also, it was hard to see a distinct surface circulation in the different analyses available. I believe soaking rains for southern Lousisana are going to be Invest 95L's main legacy. It's already produced 5+ inches of rain in some offshore locations according to radar-derived rainfall estimates.


Fig. 1 Meteogram for TRBL1 in Terrebonne Bay, LA. Tabular data are here.


Fig. 2 Base reflectivity from New Orleans, LA at 706PM, July 5. Animated loop.

Invest 96L
430 AM Update
In sum, the 00Z model runs don't present a different picture. It is curious to note that the Canadian Global model does not intensify 96L at all in the 00Z run, while NOGAPS has shifted towards a SE Louisiana landfall. I think the following discussion is still valid.

96L is going to be an interesting feature to forecast. It's still on the edge of a strong wind shear gradient. 40+ knots of shear are on the NE side of 96L, and <10 knots are on the SW side. The "center" of 96L is under about 15 knots of shear. This is likely inhibiting 96L. Nearly all forecast models take 96L NW through the Yucatan peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico. Near the Yucatan itself, sea-surface temperatures are relatively cool, not the best environment for intensification. However, at 25N, 87W there is a hotspot of SST's, which would promote rapid intensification. However, there's currently 20 knots of shear over the hotspot, so the thunderstorms that do form as a result will be well ventilated, and not cause 96L to intensify.

The dynamical models have different takes on how 96L intensifies in the next 120 hours. The 18Z operational GFS strongly intensifies 96L over the hotspot and takes 96L towards Grand Isle, LA. The parallel (for testing model configuration changes) GFS has a similar track, but does not strengthen 96L as much. This indicates uncertainty on how the models are handling the upper-level winds.

The 18Z HWRF solution is much like the parallel GFS solution. The 12Z Canadian global model has a more westerly track, pushing 96L towards Port Arthur, but it strengthens 96L right before it makes landfall, not when it's over open water. NOGAPS takes the "a little from column A, a little from column B" approach, with a spinup over the hotspot (op. GFS solution), but a westerly landfall (the Canadian solution). More data to initialize the models from synoptic reconnaissance flights will help reduce uncertainty.

The bottom line, 96L will move into the Gulf of Mexico and is then shrouded by the mists of uncertainty. I also think that it's a possibility (>50%) that it will become a tropical cyclone sometime in the next 48-72 hours (leaning towards sometime in day 2-3 based on the model runs.)


Fig. 3 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 GFS model run.Parallel GFS version.


Fig. 4 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 HWRF model run.


Fig. 5 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 12Z July 5 CMC global model run.NOGAPS wind swath.

Next update
I'll probably tweak this blog later tonight as new model runs come in. I'll have a full update tomorrow afternoon (Pacific time).

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2020 - 1970

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43Blog Index

Quoting Levi32:
Non-tasked recon mission at the 650mb (12000ft) level is checking out 96L. There is a wind shift from SE to NE around the NW Yucatan Peninsula. Keep in mind these are winds at 650mb...not surface winds. Extrapolated surface pressures are also iffy at this altitude.



So what are you saying Levi, 96L a puss?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2019. CJC111
Levi, post 1928. If that were to happen, 95L would have to return to the gulf and wait a year for litigation :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


I don't care if it did officially or not. 947mb is a major hurricane in my book. The total kinetic energy of the storm far surpassed most Cat 3s that you could pull up. A clear 15nm eye is not something you usually find in a Cat 2 either.

The pressure is a better measure of the overall power of the storm. The surface winds likely were Cat 3-force at landfall but there were no surface stations in the area.

Officially yes it was a Cat 2, but in reality, Alex was a major hurricane by any standard.



any ch of a upgrad in post season,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting btwntx08:
3062 comments and 43 entries posted by all members in the last 24 hours.

You have posted 6 entries in your own blog.

You have posted 5682 comments in all blogs.

Handle: btwntx08
Status: no membership
Expiration:
Signed Up: 2008-07-13 16:28:47
I see where to get the bottom info..but where did you go to get the top info?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


I don't care if it did officially or not. 947mb is a major hurricane in my book. The total kinetic energy of the storm far surpassed most Cat 3s that you could pull up. A clear 15nm eye is not something you usually find in a Cat 2 either.

The pressure is a better measure of the overall power of the storm. The surface winds likely were Cat 3-force at landfall but there were no surface stations in the area.

Officially yes it was a Cat 2, but in reality, Alex was a major hurricane by any standard.


I kind of agree with you. Like Ike... came in at 950... but "only" a Cat 2. Much worse than a "typical" Cat 2.
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1642
Quoting btwntx08:
3062 comments and 43 entries posted by all members in the last 24 hours.

You have posted 6 entries in your own blog.

You have posted 5682 comments in all blogs.

Handle: btwntx08
Status: no membership
Expiration:
Signed Up: 2008-07-13 16:28:47




thats nic i be out 50,000 commets this year
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2014. JLPR2
SAL! :)

At last a decent surge of SAL
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8499
Keeper - I thought I had a "justasking" handle in the past but the site couldn't find me, so I created a new account. And when I pull up the blog list I don't even see my handle listed. What's with the inquisition?

Your Membership:
Handle: justasking
Status: Free Membership
Expiration:
Signed Up: 2010-07-05 13:26:31
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2010. Levi32
Non-tasked recon mission at the 650mb (12000ft) level is checking out 96L. There is a wind shift from SE to NE around the NW Yucatan Peninsula. Keep in mind these are winds at 650mb...not surface winds. Extrapolated surface pressures are also iffy at this altitude.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
guys, do you think that 96l could follow a similar track as Alex did, cause we don't need anymore rain!!! Easily some spots have surpassed 1 meter of rainfall in the last 7 days and at my spot I'm around 750 mm or (30 in).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Time: 22:59:30Z
Coordinates: 21.4833N 91.5W
Acft. Static Air Press: 645.4 mb (~ 19.06 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,810 meters (~ 12,500 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1003.1 mb (~ 29.62 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 22° at 8 knots (From the NNE at ~ 9.2 mph)
Air Temp: 8.6°C (~ 47.5°F)
Dew Pt: 2.1°C (~ 35.8°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 8 knots (~ 9.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: -
SFMR Rain Rate: -
(*) Denotes suspect data
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2007. Patrap
95L feeder Band slams Uptown NOLA 4:30Pm July 5th 2010

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127545
2006. brla61
Quoting Patrap:



F-0 in Gentilly.

Minimal Damage..but it did put a Garbage can up on the Telephone Pole wires,dat was cool.,downed some trees.

And Did some roof damage.

NWS Confirmed F-0

Minimal Damge is always good news..This season is some kind of eerie. Even the administration at the surgical hospital where I work are talking about evacuating the hospital if needed, this year.That's never been done..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2005. Patrap


by Mike Hoss / Eyewitness News

wwltv.com

Posted on July 6, 2010 at 11:23 AM

Updated today at 5:27 PM
Related:



GENTILLY, La. – A snapped tree and blown off shingles are the usual remnants of a strong storm, but the weak tornado that touched down this morning on Prentiss Street in Gentilly produced a new visual: a trash can, sitting some 30 feet in the air.

It was blown up there by the storm, but it looked as if someone had placed it there perfectly in between two electrical wires.



Can up on wires
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127545
Time: 22:58:30Z
Coordinates: 21.5667N 91.5W
Acft. Static Air Press: 645.4 mb (~ 19.06 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,811 meters (~ 12,503 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1003.5 mb (~ 29.63 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 27° at 8 knots (From the NNE at ~ 9.2 mph)
Air Temp: 8.4°C (~ 47.1°F)
Dew Pt: 2.4°C (~ 36.3°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 9 knots (~ 10.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: -
SFMR Rain Rate:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:



ok i was this makeing sure


The JFV stuff is getting really old. You use more posts interrogating people about who they are than you do on the weather. Enough already. Please let the moderators do their job. And if you are still concerned, use the "Ignore" function. Thanks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2001. Patrap
Quoting brla61:
Hello Everyone! Just coming out of my cave:)Yay, it's the first time I'v seen sunlight all day. Hey Patrap,how are you? I heard about a tornado in nola this am.



F-0 in Gentilly.

Minimal Damage..but it did put a Garbage can up on the Telephone Pole wires,dat was cool.,downed some trees.

And Did some roof damage.

NWS Confirmed F-0
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127545
2000. Dakster
Quoting Patrap:
Or in the case of 95L and the NHC..

maybe more like,.."Hey, Pull my finger"..


I'll pass...
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10034
1999. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
justasking do me a favor go to blog display page where it shows you all the blogs now to your right copy and paste your info showing number of posts if ya got nothing to hide then there is no problem asking and showing also after that go to settings at top of page click that look to your right and copy and paste that into the other info as well that will show handle sign up date expire date like i have below thanks for your cooperation

3032 comments and 43 entries posted by all members in the last 24 hours.

You have posted 74 entries in your own blog.

You have posted 27142 comments in all blogs.


Handle: KEEPEROFTHEGATE
Status: No-Ads Paid Membership
Expiration: 2011-07-01 03:06:05
Signed Up: 2006-07-15 14:37:36
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
If I squint I think I can see rotation in the cumulus (low cloud) over the NW Yucatan...

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting gator23:

i think you have posted before. i remember your handle very clearly.

Could be, but it had to be several years ago if I did.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1996. JavPR
Link
does anybody else see a little bit of circulation on that wave east of the virgin islands?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1995. brla61
Hello Everyone! Just coming out of my cave:)Yay, it's the first time I'v seen sunlight all day. Hey Patrap,how are you? I heard about a tornado in nola this am.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1994. Dakster
Quoting Levi32:


It should be one circle in the same spot as the last TWO, and I see no reason why the percentage would change from 30%.


Thanks Levi - about what I was at least hoping for.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10034
Quoting Patrap:
Or in the case of 95L and the NHC..

maybe more like,.."Hey, Pull my finger"..


Just what we need more hot errr air to fuel the GOM. I happen to think the blow up of lows in the GOM is from all the politicians coming down from Washington for their photo ops. The GOM just couldn't handle it anymore, and exploded in convection to get rid of all that hot air.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Or in the case of 95L and the NHC..

maybe more like,.."Hey, Pull my finger"..

Sure does seem like it. lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1990. Levi32
Quoting gator23:

Alex never made it to major status.


I don't care if it did officially or not. 947mb is a major hurricane in my book. The total kinetic energy of the storm far surpassed most Cat 3s that you could pull up. A clear 15nm eye is not something you usually find in a Cat 2 either.

The pressure is a better measure of the overall power of the storm. The surface winds likely were Cat 3-force at landfall but there were no surface stations in the area.

Officially yes it was a Cat 2, but in reality, Alex was a major hurricane by any standard.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


You might wanna look at all the maps. The wake is recovering slowly but is far from gone. The cold wakes from major hurricanes can pose a limiting factor on other tropical systems for 2-3 weeks after being created. The heat content does come back but it takes a while.






I think you are both right. While TOHC has not fully recovered, the 26 degree isotherm is again deep enough to support development of a storm like this one. That's how I read Patrap's post.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
the P-3 is going into the the "COC" of 96L
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1987. cg2916
Quoting btwntx08:
im thinkin td i think it will be a ts 40-50 one


Which one?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormSurgeon:


CAT 5 to Houston...



lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1985. Patrap
Or in the case of 95L and the NHC..

maybe more like,.."Hey, Pull my finger"..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127545
Update coordinates on the imagery. Looks like a big mess now.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LADobeLady:


It's almost like "How many fingers am I holding up?"



Hit my hand......
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Dakster:
OK. So at 8pm EST what is everyone thinking the NHC will say? How many circles (or at this point just circle the entire GOM)


It's almost like "How many fingers am I holding up?"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
ok this is what it look like We might have all 97L, 98L, and 99L between the next 2-10 day from now one form the wave at 40W that new wave comming off of africa coast and the other near Burmuda


"Might" is a very strong word.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1977. cg2916
Quoting ackee:
WHAT will become of 96L

A TD
B TS
C HURRICANE
D STRONG TROPICAL LOW


A
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10972
1975. gator23
Quoting Levi32:


Yeah any development will be hard to pull off in 48 hours. This system doesn't really have the time to pull itself together. These typhoon-like developments usually require several days to organize. Alex had that kind of time and was able to become a major hurricane. 96L doesn't have that kind of time.

Alex never made it to major status.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ackee:
WHAT will become of 96L

A TD
B TS
C HURRICANE
D STRONG TROPICAL LOW


CAT 5 to Houston...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


Pretty much, but the circle is usually centered over where they think the center of the disturbance is. The size of the circle generally corresponds to the size of the disturbance.
I always thought that the size of the circle was directly related to the broadness of the circulation and/or inability to determine a clear LLC.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5526
1971. Levi32
Quoting beell:
I don't think either feature has an easy path to development over the next 24 hrs at least. Even if the Yucatan feature stays low in latitude it still has some dry air to contend with.

The east side of the surface trough in the GOM is under 30-40 knots of shear. Maybe more. The strong lower level flow is almost perfectly in opposition with the upper flow.


Yeah any development will be hard to pull off in 48 hours. This system doesn't really have the time to pull itself together. These typhoon-like developments usually require several days to organize. Alex had that kind of time and was able to become a major hurricane. 96L doesn't have that kind of time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ok this is what it look like We might have all 97L, 98L, and 99L between the next 2-10 day from now one form the wave at 40W that new wave comming off of africa coast and the other near Burmuda
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 2020 - 1970

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Partly Cloudy
70 °F
Partly Cloudy