Invest 95L Brushes Louisiana Coastline

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:42 AM GMT on July 06, 2010

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Hi all,

Dr. Rob Carver, filling in for Jeff this week.

Midnight CDT Update
The low known as Invest 95L stopped it's northward progression and is now moving west along the Louisiana coastline. This is the oddest mesoscale convective complex/tropical feature I've seen in awhile. It's still producing a lot of rain, 2+ inches inland and 6+ inches over the ocean.


Base reflectivity from Lake Charles, LA at 11PM July 5 showing a very nice comma head. Animated loop.


Invest 95L is making landfall now in southern Louisiana near Terrebonne Bay. A CMAN station in Terrebonne Bay is currently reporting winds from the SE at 21 mph and the pressure is 1009 mb. Looking at the radar data, Invest 95L never had convection around the center of circulation. Also, it was hard to see a distinct surface circulation in the different analyses available. I believe soaking rains for southern Lousisana are going to be Invest 95L's main legacy. It's already produced 5+ inches of rain in some offshore locations according to radar-derived rainfall estimates.


Fig. 1 Meteogram for TRBL1 in Terrebonne Bay, LA. Tabular data are here.


Fig. 2 Base reflectivity from New Orleans, LA at 706PM, July 5. Animated loop.

Invest 96L
430 AM Update
In sum, the 00Z model runs don't present a different picture. It is curious to note that the Canadian Global model does not intensify 96L at all in the 00Z run, while NOGAPS has shifted towards a SE Louisiana landfall. I think the following discussion is still valid.

96L is going to be an interesting feature to forecast. It's still on the edge of a strong wind shear gradient. 40+ knots of shear are on the NE side of 96L, and <10 knots are on the SW side. The "center" of 96L is under about 15 knots of shear. This is likely inhibiting 96L. Nearly all forecast models take 96L NW through the Yucatan peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico. Near the Yucatan itself, sea-surface temperatures are relatively cool, not the best environment for intensification. However, at 25N, 87W there is a hotspot of SST's, which would promote rapid intensification. However, there's currently 20 knots of shear over the hotspot, so the thunderstorms that do form as a result will be well ventilated, and not cause 96L to intensify.

The dynamical models have different takes on how 96L intensifies in the next 120 hours. The 18Z operational GFS strongly intensifies 96L over the hotspot and takes 96L towards Grand Isle, LA. The parallel (for testing model configuration changes) GFS has a similar track, but does not strengthen 96L as much. This indicates uncertainty on how the models are handling the upper-level winds.

The 18Z HWRF solution is much like the parallel GFS solution. The 12Z Canadian global model has a more westerly track, pushing 96L towards Port Arthur, but it strengthens 96L right before it makes landfall, not when it's over open water. NOGAPS takes the "a little from column A, a little from column B" approach, with a spinup over the hotspot (op. GFS solution), but a westerly landfall (the Canadian solution). More data to initialize the models from synoptic reconnaissance flights will help reduce uncertainty.

The bottom line, 96L will move into the Gulf of Mexico and is then shrouded by the mists of uncertainty. I also think that it's a possibility (>50%) that it will become a tropical cyclone sometime in the next 48-72 hours (leaning towards sometime in day 2-3 based on the model runs.)


Fig. 3 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 GFS model run.Parallel GFS version.


Fig. 4 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 HWRF model run.


Fig. 5 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 12Z July 5 CMC global model run.NOGAPS wind swath.

Next update
I'll probably tweak this blog later tonight as new model runs come in. I'll have a full update tomorrow afternoon (Pacific time).

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Good Morning Storm. Nice to meet you.

Quoting StormW:
Good morning!
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Very likely 96L will become hurricane in GOM.
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Quoting IKE:
I do think there's a chance the NHC raises the odds on 96L to 40% on the update.

The fiasco they had yesterday.... from 0% to 60% to 0% in 3 hours time was too questionable....poorly handled.

4 posts in a row...I'm talking to myself!


Mornin' IKE.

I just passed through your neck of the woods a couple times this weekend on the trip down to Destin and back.
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As far as potential activity, La Nina conditions with record heat and such in the MDR should confirm an active season, particularly, when we get into August and September. The question, which I pondered a few weeks ago, is whether we will have an active July-early August, or, whether the back-end of the season will extend into late-September and October if the prospective numbers pan out. Only time will tell.
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Quoting IKE:
I do think there's a chance the NHC raises the odds on 96L to 40% on the update.

The fiasco they had yesterday.... from 0% to 60% to 0% in 3 hours time was too questionable....poorly handled.

4 posts in a row...I'm talking to myself!


That's a sure sign of insanity......or sanity, depending how you look at it.
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
good morning. rain and winds starting to pick up here in Isla Mujeres...waters very rough
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Quoting IKE:
I do think there's a chance the NHC raises the odds on 96L to 40% on the update.

The fiasco they had yesterday.... from 0% to 60% to 0% in 3 hours time was too questionable....poorly handled.

4 posts in a row...I'm talking to myself!


Nope, terrible headache plus wonderfull blue skys finally, what a combo. I can garentee there will be at least 1 named storm this year :)

I hope and think no land falling hurricanes in the east coast of Florida this year. those allways seam worse than the gom landfalls.
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Good Morning, Do not base your numbers on in activity in June and July because normally the tropics are not active during this period at all.
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Good Morning.........Sheer is very low in the Gulf right now so we have to keep an eye on 96L over the next few days.
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Quoting IKE:



2005, part 2? Ain't happening, #'s wise. I wonder if these experts will lower their #'s on their next update?

13-7-4 was my pick a few months ago. Maybe I won't be that far off.

After 96L I don't see much in the Atlantic for the next 7-10 days.


What you are forgetting Ike is that we just came out of a strong El Nino. Seasons almost always start slow after coming out of that. Look at 1998 for example after that very strong El Nino. The first storm wasn't until July 27th and they had 14, but didn't have the warm water that we have. 23 might be on the high side, but 13 is definitely too low. Even the 2004 season which was awful, had 15 named storms with the first one starting July 31st. You are too preoccupied with the beginning of the season. The season will just end later than normal like 2005. 2005 had 20 storms between August 1st and November 30th.
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710. IKE
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Quoting IKE:
I do think there's a chance the NHC raises the odds on 96L to 40% on the update.

The fiasco they had yesterday.... from 0% to 60% to 0% in 3 hours time was too questionable....poorly handled.

4 posts in a row...I'm talking to myself!


I'm reading what you are saying. Just a lurker though.
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Link
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Good morning guys well to me it looks like it is doing a good job on it MLC but I don't see that LLC where you guys are stating it is
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Since "we" have very little historical skill in predicting the numbers of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes I don't discount anyone's SWAG.

Other than to say, based on conditions it looks like the odds are that this will at least be an active season. Although even that has a certain statistical chance of being incorrect.

BTW, the "we" includes NOAA, CSU, all of us bloggers, etc...

Good thing we are not betting money on the number of named storms or this blog would really be on fire.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 11537
Morning everybody.

Quoting Hhunter:
believe core of 96L is right on th ne tip of yucatan
Is anybody using MX, Cuban or Key West radar to check out 96L? u should be able to see SOMEthing from one of them by now....
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704. IKE
I do think there's a chance the NHC raises the odds on 96L to 40% on the update.

The fiasco they had yesterday.... from 0% to 60% to 0% in 3 hours time was too questionable....poorly handled.

4 posts in a row...I'm talking to myself!
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702. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:


Hope your right Ike, otherwise alot of reliable agencies would be wrong, I think only one group had below average WRC (Weather Research Center) maybe they will be right, but 8 systems?

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN2325344420100623


8.....can you imagine this blog and the bans...lol....
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701. IKE
Center is real close to Cozumel, Mexico...their coordinates....20.5N and 86.9W....

Current weather....

Cozumel, MX (Airport)
Updated: 16 min 34 sec ago
Overcast
73 °F
Overcast
Humidity: 100%
Dew Point: 73 °F
Wind: Calm
Pressure: 29.75 in (Steady)
Visibility: 5.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 1200 ft
Overcast 8000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 16 ft
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Morning...
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Quoting IKE:


I thought you meant 3 total(June and July) and not just 3 in July.

Think what you want...maybe you'll be correct and I'll eat crow.


Hope your right Ike, otherwise alot of reliable agencies would be wrong, I think only one group had below average WRC (Weather Research Center) maybe they will be right, but 8 systems?

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN2325344420100623
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698. IKE
After looking at the 1015 satellite on 96L..I think the center, if you can call it that, is over the NE Yucatan.

6 GMT coordinates were 19.6N and 86.1W...that was a few hours ago...5, I think.
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697. MahFL
Leo305, I disagree.
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well folks keep the debate going
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Quoting MahFL:
The first month of the season has been busier than normal, we had a Hurricane remember. Also typically how many named storms occur in July ?


the average for june is 1 storm every other year and for july i think its 1 a year
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believe core of 96L is right on th ne tip of yucatan
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693. MahFL
The first month of the season has been busier than normal, we had a Hurricane remember. Also typically how many named storms occur in July ?
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looks like the core of 96L, if there is one, has moved inland..
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for diurnal minnimum i am favorably impressed with 96L core east of yucatan. opinions for next 10 minutes then its shower and work
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i do believe 96L getting more line up
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687. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 AM CDT TUE JUL 06 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A 1006 MB LOW NEAR 29.5N92W AT 0600 UTC IS CURRENTLY
MOVING ONTO THE LOUISIANA COAST AND WILL DISSIPATE TODAY. BROAD
LOW PRES...POSSIBLY A TROPICAL CYCLONE...WILL DEVELOP TODAY
ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 87W S OF 26N. THE LOW
WILL BE NEAR 23N90W EARLY WED...27N94W EARLY THU...AND THEN IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND NE TEXAS THU NIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD
FROM THE E ALONG 28N THU THROUGH SAT.



SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 AM EDT TUE JUL 06 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE LIES OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE W AWAY FROM THE AREA. A SECOND
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN TODAY AND THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WED AND THU. A
THIRD TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 51W S OF 13N IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC TODAY AND FOLLOW THE FIST WAVE THROUGH
THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI. A FOURTH TROPICAL WAVE WELL E OF THE
AREA WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS BY FRI AND THE E
CARIBBEAN SAT.



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Quoting Hhunter:


i See the llc just east of the tip of the yucatan
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Quoting IKE:


I thought you meant 3 total(June and July) and not just 3 in July.

Think what you want...maybe you'll be correct and I'll eat crow.


yum
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for diurnal minnemum i like the looks of the core of 96L today could be the day
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681. IKE
Quoting wfyweather:


If u think 7 is over twice as many as 4.... you need to go back to school


I thought you meant 3 total(June and July) and not just 3 in July.

Think what you want...maybe you'll be correct and I'll eat crow.
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96L looks like an open wave with a little more convection this morning. It is nothing to raise your eyebrows at. 96L never formed a LLC and it only obtained a MLC for a short period of time. It has been mostly a mess it's whole journey. It has lost a lot of model support including the ECMWF. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the NHC drops it's chances again later on today.
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Quoting StormW:
Good morning!


Morning, Storm!
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Quoting IKE:


That's over twice as many. Average that out over a full 6 months. I think 2010 will be above average, just not as much as some thought and not another 2005.


If u think 7 is over twice as many as 4.... you need to go back to school
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676. IKE
Quoting wfyweather:


so you agree... because if we made it out of july with 3 that puts us at 4 which is only a few behind 7


That's over twice as many. Average that out over a full 6 months. I think 2010 will be above average, just not as much as some thought and not another 2005.
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Quoting IKE:



2005 had 7 by the end of July and 9, total, by August 4th.


so you agree... because if we made it out of july with 3 that puts us at 4 which is only a few behind 7
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674. IKE
Quoting wfyweather:


I disagree completely. They will not be lowering there numbers. I think you will find that the beginning of the season has no effect on the end of the season at all...... just because the first half of the season may be a little on the quiet side.... doesnt mean late season will do the same. 2005 was a perfect example... also..... if we make it out of july with even just 3 named storms... that puts us only a few storms behind 2005... plus... in 2005 most forecasts called for only 12 to 14 named storms.... seasons are very unpredictible... im going in 17-12-5



2005 had 7 by the end of July and 9, total, by August 4th.
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673. IKE
6Z NOGAPS is weaker with the vorticity of 96L. CMC dropped it. ECMWF keeps it as a wave. UKMET 00Z keeps it as a wave. GFS operational doesn't develop it...keeps it as a wave. GFS parallel has a 1007 mb low just off of the NE coast of Mexico at 54 hours.

GFDL and HWRF aren't strong with 96L either. Not much model support on 96L. Looks like a rainmaker for the Texas and possibly Louisiana coast and Mexican coast.
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Quoting IKE:



2005, part 2? Ain't happening, #'s wise. I wonder if these experts will lower their #'s on their next update?

13-7-4 was my pick a few months ago. Maybe I won't be that far off.

After 96L I don't see much in the Atlantic for the next 7-10 days.


I disagree completely. They will not be lowering there numbers. I think you will find that the beginning of the season has no effect on the end of the season at all...... just because the first half of the season may be a little on the quiet side.... doesnt mean late season will do the same. 2005 was a perfect example... also..... if we make it out of july with even just 3 named storms... that puts us only a few storms behind 2005... plus... in 2005 most forecasts called for only 12 to 14 named storms.... seasons are very unpredictible... im going in 17-12-5
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96L firing new convection.... I think a depression is somewhat likely to develop today. 95L decided to take its time llolll
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Quoting IKE:



2005, part 2? Ain't happening, #'s wise. I wonder if these experts will lower their #'s on their next update?

13-7-4 was my pick a few months ago. Maybe I won't be that far off.

After 96L I don't see much in the Atlantic for the next 7-10 days.



I think it is a good possibility they could lower just a little. I do think in August and September we could have storms form in the Caribbean and GOM comparable(intensity)to 2004 and 2005. The water temps are going to be slightly higher this year during the peak of the season than 2005 most likely. I do believe the #s will not be anything close to 2005 though. I do agree we will not see a named storm for another 7-10 days as well. The pattern right now shows something missing for sure. I don't think 96L is going to even get to TD status imo. We shall see.
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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