Invest 95L Brushes Louisiana Coastline

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:42 AM GMT on July 06, 2010

Share this Blog
3
+

Hi all,

Dr. Rob Carver, filling in for Jeff this week.

Midnight CDT Update
The low known as Invest 95L stopped it's northward progression and is now moving west along the Louisiana coastline. This is the oddest mesoscale convective complex/tropical feature I've seen in awhile. It's still producing a lot of rain, 2+ inches inland and 6+ inches over the ocean.


Base reflectivity from Lake Charles, LA at 11PM July 5 showing a very nice comma head. Animated loop.


Invest 95L is making landfall now in southern Louisiana near Terrebonne Bay. A CMAN station in Terrebonne Bay is currently reporting winds from the SE at 21 mph and the pressure is 1009 mb. Looking at the radar data, Invest 95L never had convection around the center of circulation. Also, it was hard to see a distinct surface circulation in the different analyses available. I believe soaking rains for southern Lousisana are going to be Invest 95L's main legacy. It's already produced 5+ inches of rain in some offshore locations according to radar-derived rainfall estimates.


Fig. 1 Meteogram for TRBL1 in Terrebonne Bay, LA. Tabular data are here.


Fig. 2 Base reflectivity from New Orleans, LA at 706PM, July 5. Animated loop.

Invest 96L
430 AM Update
In sum, the 00Z model runs don't present a different picture. It is curious to note that the Canadian Global model does not intensify 96L at all in the 00Z run, while NOGAPS has shifted towards a SE Louisiana landfall. I think the following discussion is still valid.

96L is going to be an interesting feature to forecast. It's still on the edge of a strong wind shear gradient. 40+ knots of shear are on the NE side of 96L, and <10 knots are on the SW side. The "center" of 96L is under about 15 knots of shear. This is likely inhibiting 96L. Nearly all forecast models take 96L NW through the Yucatan peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico. Near the Yucatan itself, sea-surface temperatures are relatively cool, not the best environment for intensification. However, at 25N, 87W there is a hotspot of SST's, which would promote rapid intensification. However, there's currently 20 knots of shear over the hotspot, so the thunderstorms that do form as a result will be well ventilated, and not cause 96L to intensify.

The dynamical models have different takes on how 96L intensifies in the next 120 hours. The 18Z operational GFS strongly intensifies 96L over the hotspot and takes 96L towards Grand Isle, LA. The parallel (for testing model configuration changes) GFS has a similar track, but does not strengthen 96L as much. This indicates uncertainty on how the models are handling the upper-level winds.

The 18Z HWRF solution is much like the parallel GFS solution. The 12Z Canadian global model has a more westerly track, pushing 96L towards Port Arthur, but it strengthens 96L right before it makes landfall, not when it's over open water. NOGAPS takes the "a little from column A, a little from column B" approach, with a spinup over the hotspot (op. GFS solution), but a westerly landfall (the Canadian solution). More data to initialize the models from synoptic reconnaissance flights will help reduce uncertainty.

The bottom line, 96L will move into the Gulf of Mexico and is then shrouded by the mists of uncertainty. I also think that it's a possibility (>50%) that it will become a tropical cyclone sometime in the next 48-72 hours (leaning towards sometime in day 2-3 based on the model runs.)


Fig. 3 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 GFS model run.Parallel GFS version.


Fig. 4 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 HWRF model run.


Fig. 5 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 12Z July 5 CMC global model run.NOGAPS wind swath.

Next update
I'll probably tweak this blog later tonight as new model runs come in. I'll have a full update tomorrow afternoon (Pacific time).

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 770 - 720

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43Blog Index

Given the current political climate, the oil situation and the location of 96L, RECON may still fly today - though in other situations it might not be warranted.
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 152
758. MiamiHurricanes09

3. REMARK: TASKING FOR 05/1800Z CANCELED BY NHC
AT 05/1140Z


Never mind, got my dates mixed up.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11343
Quoting PuntaGordaPete:


I think you may have forgotten about Charley in 2004. Small but strong. In fact, the strongest Florida storm since Andrew in 1982. I have a radar image of the eye directly over our house. Officially 145 mph winds.


Charley actually was found peaked at 150 per post season in 2005. IMO I believe that Charley might have peaked at 160 or Category 5 status.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
And this is what I found from Cancun:



Like someone pointed out earlier, it seems the MX radar site is always out of date...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
96L should pop up tomorrow
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
That reminds me... I posted this question last night:

What are my chances of getting hit by a hurricane while in South Florida during

a) the last week of this month
b) the first week of next month
c) the second week of next month?

[I don't mean me personally - I know some pple who are looking for travel wx advice...]

[zoomiami thought it was a trick question. Quoting zoomiami:
Is this a trick question?
]
LOL.... no! Seriously, they want to know if they can shop and ship without having to worry about their stuff being run over by storm surge while it it's sitting in the warehouse at Port Everglades .... lol ... I already told them what I think, but also promised I'd ask in here...

Anybody got an opinion?



One could look to climatology from the Miami NWS:

July
In fact, 4 tropical storms have impacted the local area in July, but no hurricanes.

August
Since 1851, a total of 20 named storms have affected Mainland South Florida during the month of August, including 10 hurricanes, 5 of which were major hurricanes (Category 3 or greater). Historical records show that August ranks third in the number of hurricanes affecting Mainland South Florida, behind September and October.

Then again, records are made to be broken and there is no skill in forecasting landfall locations more than 1 week in advance.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11343
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
morning all
Good morning KOTG!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
morning all
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Link to Cuban Radar. This is actually not the closest possible radar; two closer sites seem to be offline....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SpicyAngel1072:


charley welcomed me to Florida...I had just moved...then of course the other 3 after that had me thinking whether I should have moved...lol

Charley and the rest of that season got me addicted to WU...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Apparently recon is still going to investigate Invest 96L. I find it odd though, and would expect a cancellation soon.

000
NOUS42 KNHC 051415
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT MON 05 JULY 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z JULY 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-035

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 06/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 06/1615Z
D. 24.5N 89.5W
E. 06/1715Z TO 06/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 07/0600, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 07/0345Z
D. 26.5N 91.5W
E. 07/0415Z TO 07/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE 3-HRLY FIXES
BEGINNING AT 07/1500Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARK: TASKING FOR 05/1800Z CANCELED BY NHC
AT 05/1140Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RobbieLSU:


I guess you could look at the climatological/historical tracks for those times you're asking about, but forecasting that far out is difficult.
I told my friends [well, they are actually my cousins] that the chances are higher than usual for an end of July hurricane, but much less than say, an end of August hurricane.... so if they are planning a trip, better to get it out of the way before the busier part of the season gets started.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PuntaGordaPete:


I think you may have forgotten about Charley in 2004. Small but strong. In fact, the strongest Florida storm since Andrew in 1982. I have a radar image of the eye directly over our house. Officially 145 mph winds.


charley welcomed me to Florida...I had just moved...then of course the other 3 after that had me thinking whether I should have moved...lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LloydBentsen:


I want an employer.


I do to, furthermore, I want his employer....
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
Quoting BahaHurican:
That reminds me... I posted this question last night:

What are my chances of getting hit by a hurricane while in South Florida during

a) the last week of this month
b) the first week of next month
c) the second week of next month?

[I don't mean me personally - I know some pple who are looking for travel wx advice...]

[zoomiami thought it was a trick question. Quoting zoomiami:
Is this a trick question?
]
LOL.... no! Seriously, they want to know if they can shop and ship without having to worry about their stuff being run over by storm surge while it it's sitting in the warehouse at Port Everglades .... lol ... I already told them what I think, but also promised I'd ask in here...

Anybody got an opinion?

South Florida is always a dangerous place to travel to at any time during the hurricane season. But, if I were going to pick a date to visit it would be "A" because the "C" option we are already deeper in the Cape Verde season, its at that time that we receive the bulk of tropical weather.

Not too recent (2004) but you get the concept.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Steering...




Vorticity...
(Best vorticity is to the north of 96L)




Probabilities...
(Have increased fairly significantly)




Wind Shear...
(20-30 kts)

Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 152
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


LOL.......But my employer knows I am a weather freak so they don't mind as long as I get my work done (which I do)..... :)


I want an employer.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
What are my chances of getting hit by a hurricane while in South Florida during...


I guess you could look at the climatological/historical tracks for those times you're asking about, but forecasting that far out is difficult.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
July 6th. Tropical Update w/ Video
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Central Pacific Hurricane Center joins the party.


CP 91 2010070606 BEST 0 120N 1446W 25 1011 DB
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11343
That reminds me... I posted this question last night:

What are my chances of getting hit by a hurricane while in South Florida during

a) the last week of this month
b) the first week of next month
c) the second week of next month?

[I don't mean me personally - I know some pple who are looking for travel wx advice...]

[zoomiami thought it was a trick question. Quoting zoomiami:
Is this a trick question?
]
LOL.... no! Seriously, they want to know if they can shop and ship without having to worry about their stuff being run over by storm surge while it it's sitting in the warehouse at Port Everglades .... lol ... I already told them what I think, but also promised I'd ask in here...

Anybody got an opinion?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Whether or not 96-L gets its act together, we
will still be shut down on spill cleanup ops
as seas are still 5 ft this morning at buoy 42040 64 nm south of Mobile....hell, even lil 95 had seas up as much as 8 ft yesterday.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4+ Doppler estimated rain totals in much of south central LA.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting palmpt:


The smart folks are getting to work... That is when Internet traffic skyrockets!


LOL.......But my employer knows I am a weather freak so they don't mind as long as I get my work done (which I do)..... :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


The more mature "early morning" shift in action...... :)


The smart folks are getting to work... That is when Internet traffic skyrockets!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
What was missed on 95L, I heard they had tropical storm winds in La. due to 95L?
Member Since: July 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348
Ahh.... things finally seem to be calming down in my neck of the woods... I actually can see sunshine and blue skies this a.m. I'll bet it's going to be hot as Hades out there today, though - humidity will be a killer...



Speaking of Hades, has anyone seen HadesGodWyvern in here recently????
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
Morning everybody.

Is anybody using MX, Cuban or Key West radar to check out 96L? u should be able to see SOMEthing from one of them by now....


Cancun isn't much of a help without a loop option, and West Cuban radar isn't working at the moment. Key West doesn't reach far enough, but of some note is a squall line moving NW.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ktymisty:
Morning Storm :)


It's such an interesting season so far....lots of strange things happening....its funny to watch this blog overnight ( your overnight, my afternoon :)and to see the changeover in the 'morning' hehehe


The more mature "early morning" shift in action...... :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
Here's the current one...



Don't I feel stupid. Grabbed it off the site and didn't look at the time.

That's what I get for jumping out of bed and onto the blog without my first cup of coffee.

Thanks for catching it.
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 152
For all those just waking up you missed a heck of a show from 95L last night
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Autistic2:


Nope, terrible headache plus wonderfull blue skys finally, what a combo. I can garentee there will be at least 1 named storm this year :)

I hope and think no land falling hurricanes in the east coast of Florida this year. those allways seam worse than the gom landfalls.


I think you may have forgotten about Charley in 2004. Small but strong. In fact, the strongest Florida storm since Andrew in 1982. I have a radar image of the eye directly over our house. Officially 145 mph winds.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Are they looking at same views of 96L that we are?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Morning Storm :)


It's such an interesting season so far....lots of strange things happening....its funny to watch this blog overnight ( your overnight, my afternoon :)and to see the changeover in the 'morning' hehehe
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
734. IKE
Here's the current one...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Autistic2:


Maybee both? my wife says I am a sane man that goes insaine over tropical weather.



There's certainly been a lot of insanity on this blog regarding 96L that last couple of days. It was almost comical sitting back and reading some of the predictions about what I considered nothing more than an energetic tropical wave. I'm still of that opinion this morning.
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
I found what's left of 95L in my back yard this a.m.

Looks like 96L wants to be a player...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
.
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 152
730. IKE
Still at 30%....

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUL 6 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TODAY.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD BUT DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS...
SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Autistic2:


Nope, terrible headache plus wonderfull blue skys finally, what a combo. I can garentee there will be at least 1 named storm this year :)

I hope and think no land falling hurricanes in the east coast of Florida this year. those allways seam worse than the gom landfalls.

thats probably because, they dont weaken much crossing Florida and their are a lot of people down there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
728. beell
Thanks, IKE.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
727. IKE
Quoting beell:
Anybody spare a link to the GFS Parallel? I made a quick search but came up empty. On an alien computer this morning.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
725. IKE
Quoting SeALWx:


Mornin' IKE.

I just passed through your neck of the woods a couple times this weekend on the trip down to Destin and back.


Small town USA...Defuniak Springs....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
724. beell
Anybody spare a link to the GFS Parallel? I made a quick search but came up empty. On an alien computer this morning.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
I think 96L has a pretty good chance of being a TD or TS, not sure about Hurricane?


Depends where 96L goes.Much is possible.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormSurgeon:


That's a sure sign of insanity......or sanity, depending how you look at it.


Maybee both? my wife says I am a sane man that goes insaine over tropical weather.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think 96L has a pretty good chance of being a TD or TS, not sure about Hurricane?
Member Since: July 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348
Good Morning Storm. Nice to meet you.

Quoting StormW:
Good morning!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 770 - 720

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron