Invest 95L Brushes Louisiana Coastline

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:42 AM GMT on July 06, 2010

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Hi all,

Dr. Rob Carver, filling in for Jeff this week.

Midnight CDT Update
The low known as Invest 95L stopped it's northward progression and is now moving west along the Louisiana coastline. This is the oddest mesoscale convective complex/tropical feature I've seen in awhile. It's still producing a lot of rain, 2+ inches inland and 6+ inches over the ocean.


Base reflectivity from Lake Charles, LA at 11PM July 5 showing a very nice comma head. Animated loop.


Invest 95L is making landfall now in southern Louisiana near Terrebonne Bay. A CMAN station in Terrebonne Bay is currently reporting winds from the SE at 21 mph and the pressure is 1009 mb. Looking at the radar data, Invest 95L never had convection around the center of circulation. Also, it was hard to see a distinct surface circulation in the different analyses available. I believe soaking rains for southern Lousisana are going to be Invest 95L's main legacy. It's already produced 5+ inches of rain in some offshore locations according to radar-derived rainfall estimates.


Fig. 1 Meteogram for TRBL1 in Terrebonne Bay, LA. Tabular data are here.


Fig. 2 Base reflectivity from New Orleans, LA at 706PM, July 5. Animated loop.

Invest 96L
430 AM Update
In sum, the 00Z model runs don't present a different picture. It is curious to note that the Canadian Global model does not intensify 96L at all in the 00Z run, while NOGAPS has shifted towards a SE Louisiana landfall. I think the following discussion is still valid.

96L is going to be an interesting feature to forecast. It's still on the edge of a strong wind shear gradient. 40+ knots of shear are on the NE side of 96L, and <10 knots are on the SW side. The "center" of 96L is under about 15 knots of shear. This is likely inhibiting 96L. Nearly all forecast models take 96L NW through the Yucatan peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico. Near the Yucatan itself, sea-surface temperatures are relatively cool, not the best environment for intensification. However, at 25N, 87W there is a hotspot of SST's, which would promote rapid intensification. However, there's currently 20 knots of shear over the hotspot, so the thunderstorms that do form as a result will be well ventilated, and not cause 96L to intensify.

The dynamical models have different takes on how 96L intensifies in the next 120 hours. The 18Z operational GFS strongly intensifies 96L over the hotspot and takes 96L towards Grand Isle, LA. The parallel (for testing model configuration changes) GFS has a similar track, but does not strengthen 96L as much. This indicates uncertainty on how the models are handling the upper-level winds.

The 18Z HWRF solution is much like the parallel GFS solution. The 12Z Canadian global model has a more westerly track, pushing 96L towards Port Arthur, but it strengthens 96L right before it makes landfall, not when it's over open water. NOGAPS takes the "a little from column A, a little from column B" approach, with a spinup over the hotspot (op. GFS solution), but a westerly landfall (the Canadian solution). More data to initialize the models from synoptic reconnaissance flights will help reduce uncertainty.

The bottom line, 96L will move into the Gulf of Mexico and is then shrouded by the mists of uncertainty. I also think that it's a possibility (>50%) that it will become a tropical cyclone sometime in the next 48-72 hours (leaning towards sometime in day 2-3 based on the model runs.)


Fig. 3 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 GFS model run.Parallel GFS version.


Fig. 4 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 HWRF model run.


Fig. 5 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 12Z July 5 CMC global model run.NOGAPS wind swath.

Next update
I'll probably tweak this blog later tonight as new model runs come in. I'll have a full update tomorrow afternoon (Pacific time).

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Quoting itrackstorms:


Click on your name (takes you to your blog) and it's on the right side.


thank you
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Good morning all

Just one post then off for the day.

The CV season is about to kick off in earnest it would seem. Here comes the next feature to keep an eye on. Will check in later.



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Quoting sporteguy03:


I have been there stayed at Best Western and visited the WalMart on US 331, nice stop on the way to the beaches.
Defuniak Springs is on the railway as well, right? Near Crestview somewhere? If so, last time I went through there was on the Sunset Limited, about two weeks before Katrina hit LA/MS. And that trip was to make up for an aborted Sunset Limited trip from 2004, when Charley's strike on the west coast caused my train trip to be cancelled at NOLA... we got bussed to Orlando that time, so didn't see much from I-10....
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Quoting Headindaclouds:


How do you use the ignore feature?

Thanks


Click on your name (takes you to your blog) and it's on the right side.
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 152
06Z HWRF goes for a weak TS near Corpus Christi Thursday morning:

Link
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814. beell

SPC Mesoscale Discussion 1213
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813. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:


I have been there stayed at Best Western and visited the WalMart on US 331, nice stop on the way to the beaches.


My wife use to work at that Best Western.

LATCUR = 20.1N LONCUR = 87.0W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 7KT

Heading over the NE Yucatan peninsula.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting itrackstorms:
I'm so excited...

I finally figured out how to lose the ignore feature. I will be using it frequently. :)


How do you use the ignore feature?

Thanks
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I received about 2 inches of rain from Alex, but areas west of Del Rio have received over 20 inches from Alex which is about their yearly average. So the movement of any future tropical systems is very important for Texas because the flooding could be unbelievable.
Member Since: July 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348
goodmorning i see no one is saying much about 96L
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I feel bad for all of you guys having drought problems.

My state:
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
Wow on the post-Alex rains / flooding in N Mexico.... I hope pple in the Rio Grande valley are on the alert, since much of the potential dam release / failure related water is going to run that way to get to the sea...

Sure hope 96L doesn't get over that far west to add to the problems there.
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wow..
Member Since: July 4, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 965
561

WHXX01 KWBC 061302

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1302 UTC TUE JUL 6 2010



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962010) 20100706 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

100706 1200 100707 0000 100707 1200 100708 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 20.1N 87.0W 22.1N 89.0W 23.8N 91.2W 25.5N 93.3W

BAMD 20.1N 87.0W 21.1N 88.5W 22.0N 89.9W 22.8N 91.7W

BAMM 20.1N 87.0W 21.6N 88.7W 22.9N 90.6W 24.2N 92.6W

LBAR 20.1N 87.0W 21.3N 88.3W 22.6N 90.0W 24.2N 91.9W

SHIP 30KTS 36KTS 42KTS 47KTS

DSHP 30KTS 31KTS 38KTS 43KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

100708 1200 100709 1200 100710 1200 100711 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 26.9N 95.3W 29.1N 98.8W 30.6N 101.8W 32.6N 103.6W

BAMD 23.4N 93.6W 24.3N 97.6W 24.8N 102.1W 25.9N 106.6W

BAMM 25.3N 94.6W 27.0N 98.7W 28.1N 102.6W 29.5N 106.0W

LBAR 25.6N 93.9W 27.9N 97.1W 29.7N 98.5W 30.4N 98.9W

SHIP 52KTS 58KTS 61KTS 60KTS

DSHP 47KTS 36KTS 28KTS 27KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 20.1N LONCUR = 87.0W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 7KT

LATM12 = 19.2N LONM12 = 85.7W DIRM12 = 314DEG SPDM12 = 7KT

LATM24 = 18.2N LONM24 = 84.6W

WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 30KT

CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN


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Good morning, can someone please point out in the Discussion where the NHC mentions the wave at about 12N 45-50W? CATLLoop

Below is all I could find and it doesn't look like this wave is embedded in the ICTZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 10N12W 8N20W 11N34W 10N50W 8N60W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 34W-44W.

This is in the Atlantic Discussion portion:
A BROAD CUT OFF UPPER LOW IS OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC ROUGHLY CENTERED NEAR 21N47W COVERING THE AREA N OF 12N BETWEEN 35W-55W.

If it's not a tropical wave, then why not?
Thanks!
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Quoting tropicfreak:


DO I SEE A LOW OVER VA???? Yes! We will finally see some rain. hopefully


Ensembles indicate no widespread precip over VA until around 10 July, with the passage of that front you see wayyy out in the centre of the country this morning.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Anyone else have the quoted posts that contain links sometimes are shown as a link, and other times not? Browser related? Also, yesterday I was seeing quoted posts have an amomalous link where the origonal post has no link.


I can't post clickable links on Safari on a Mac, but I can with Firefox. I think Safari is browser related though.
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Quoting IKE:


Small town USA...Defuniak Springs....


I have been there stayed at Best Western and visited the WalMart on US 331, nice stop on the way to the beaches.
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Quoting mtyweatherfan90:


They do have, but the floods unabled the electric facility within the plant. They're sending a backup plan and they do have a manual override. However they've only opened 8 out of 26 gates, clock is ticking. They need to open all of them, if not, well you might imagine the story... The dam is overflowing 120% of its capacity.


Well I'll be dammed...

They better hurry and get them open manually!
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Morn'n all.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
iam just getting ready for my second cup for the day before i get to do half a shift till lunch
Yeah, just stopped to get a "little something" to go with my second cup... lol pity I have to pack up and go by 9:30.... but at least it wasn't a 5:30 morning.
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Quoting RecordSeason:
787:

What kind of moron designs a dam without some sort of manual release or a backup power system?

Wait a minute...if the dam has no electricity, then what sort of dam is it in the first place?


They do have, but the floods unabled the electric facility within the plant. They're sending a backup plan and they do have a manual override. However they've only opened 8 out of 26 gates, clock is ticking. They need to open all of them, if not, well you might imagine the story... The dam is overflowing 120% of its capacity.
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The models have backed off on development i see... wheres Pats "nuthin" image
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2182
I'm so excited...

I finally figured out how to use the ignore feature. I will be using it frequently. :)
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 152
Took a quick look at the climo for July 15 to Aug. 15; 5 hurricanes passed through the Bahamas in the last 100 years, but ALL of them went on to strike the FL coast between Jupiter and Cape Canaveral.... seems like whatever early storms there are tend to recurve before hitting the FL coast.

INteresting....
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Good Morning all..
I too having my first cup of coffee and watching the rain come down. Thankfully no flooding in my area. Would like to get back in bed...but work is calling.
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Good morning (Rodney Dangerfield voice) "Take my rain, please!"

I thought I'd have to swim to work this AM. 95L is quite the little rain producer, and now we may have to contend with 96L? I'm going to grow gills soon
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Quoting StormW:
INVEST 95L AND 96L SYNOPSIS ISSUED 8:20 A.M. JULY 06 2010


Thank you for that. I'm afraid i'm going to have to agree to disagree with some of NHC's analyses. The baroclinicity in 95L's environment seemed to be gone by the 4th. There was no sig winds at the trop, there was no difference in the entropy of the airmass for several hundred miles...just some dry air aloft to the N and W. Without a detailed isentropic analysis, its a quasi-tropical thingy...and now just academic history, once those rains have abated in S LA, that is.
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Quoting btwntx08:
still needs to be watched according to the ecmwf it looks like it brings 96L to the tx/mx border as a big rain maker potentally notice the x is 96L


DO I SEE A LOW OVER VA???? Yes! We will finally see some rain. hopefully
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787:

What kind of moron designs a dam without some sort of manual release or a backup power system?

Wait a minute...if the dam has no electricity, then what sort of dam is it in the first place?
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788. MahFL
Seems to me rainfall is wrapping around the center of 95L, proberbly due to the wetlands in S LA.
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Local mets are amazed as it keeps raining hard in Monterrey and Northeastern Mexico. They have never seen or at least in several decades the current pattern over the region. 12 hrs straight raining hard. WARNING IN NORTH COAHUILA, NORTH NUEVO LEON, NORTH TAMAULIPAS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY. Venustiano Carranza Dam located in Northern Coahuila is at 120% maximum capacity and the gates can't be opened because electricity is failing in the area. The dam is at the verge of collapsing.



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Quoting MahFL:


That's not true, half the Gulf is in 20 to 40 kts of shear.


You are correct; I miss-read the chart....The western Gulf is very favorable; 96L is close to the range you mentioned which dominates in the Central/Eastern gulf right now.
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Good morning 96L...



She looks pretty ragged this morning...
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 152
I think that the next longer term area to keep an eye on might be the wave around 38W-11N as I think it is starting to look interesting but don't have any idea if there is any model support on this one at the moment.....
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Anyone else have the quoted posts that contain links sometimes are shown as a link, and other times not? Browser related? Also, yesterday I was seeing quoted posts have an amomalous link where the origonal post has no link.
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782. MahFL
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning.........Sheer is very low in the Gulf right now so we have to keep an eye on 96L over the next few days.


That's not true, half the Gulf is in 20 to 40 kts of shear.
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Stormw - Thanks for the update and the analysis on 95L... I trust the NHC to do their job on whether it is a "tropical depression/storm" or not - although the discussion is very interesting. At least you can have a meaningful discussion with them as an experienced met.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Ah.... nothing like the first cuppa freshly ground, freshly brewed coffee..... [sips]
iam just getting ready for my second cup for the day before i get to do half a shift till lunch
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Quoting Dakster:


Best bet is come to South Florida from late January through April. I can almost guarantee you won't get hit by a Hurricane then.
I concur... only problem is, I don't think these ladies will wait until next January.... lol....

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Ah.... nothing like the first cuppa freshly ground, freshly brewed coffee..... [sips]
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191

TCCA23 KNHC 060732

STDWCA



SATELLITE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE RAINFALL ESTIMATES

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

0615 UTC TUE JUL 6 2010





SYSTEM NAME/IDENTIFIER...AL962010



MAX RAINFALL

DATE/TIME LOCATION MOTION MEAN LAST

----------- ------------ ------ ------- -------

6/0615 UTC 18.8N 86.8W 315/08 11.7 IN 6.9 IN





LAST RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...



DISTANCE LEFT OF CENTER RIGHT OF CENTER

------------- --------------- ---------------

0 TO 1 DEGREE 1.0 TO 3.6 IN 0.4 TO 2.4 IN

1 TO 2 DEGREE 0.2 TO 2.7 IN 1.8 TO 6.9 IN

2 TO 3 DEGREE 0.5 TO 1.5 IN 2.9 TO 6.8 IN

3 TO 4 DEGREE 0.0 TO 0.6 IN 1.5 TO 2.7 IN


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Good Morning!

I wouldn't anticipate 96L development until Wednesday or, now, Thursday. Sure, it's getting its act together, but I don't think it will warrant an upgrade anytime soon.

Nonetheless - the Gulf has lower shear, warm SSTs, overall favorable conditions. Sure, it could still be sheared a bit depending on track, but I think this has a chance. Just not now.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


One could look to climatology from the Miami NWS:

July
In fact, 4 tropical storms have impacted the local area in July, but no hurricanes.

August
Since 1851, a total of 20 named storms have affected Mainland South Florida during the month of August, including 10 hurricanes, 5 of which were major hurricanes (Category 3 or greater). Historical records show that August ranks third in the number of hurricanes affecting Mainland South Florida, behind September and October.

Then again, records are made to be broken and there is no skill in forecasting landfall locations more than 1 week in advance.


Best bet is come to South Florida from late January through April. I can almost guarantee you won't get hit by a Hurricane then.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


One could look to climatology from the Miami NWS:

July
In fact, 4 tropical storms have impacted the local area in July, but no hurricanes.

August
Since 1851, a total of 20 named storms have affected Mainland South Florida during the month of August, including 10 hurricanes, 5 of which were major hurricanes (Category 3 or greater). Historical records show that August ranks third in the number of hurricanes affecting Mainland South Florida, behind September and October.

Then again, records are made to be broken and there is no skill in forecasting landfall locations more than 1 week in advance.
Thanks, nrt... We've been hit here in the Bahamas by late July hurricanes at least one time that I know of (1926). But the climo. stats make my point well enough... I will use them on those "ladies of shopping renown"....
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:


The more mature "early morning" shift in action...... :)


Something to do with seventeen and 7 am not wanting to be forced into each other's company.

How was the Gulf fishing trip you talked about on Friday? I was down around Choctawhatchee Bay a good portion of the Fourth Weekend and we got mostly good weather. Lots o stuff happening out in the coastal waters, though.
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.
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Given the current political climate, the oil situation and the location of 96L, RECON may still fly today - though in other situations it might not be warranted.
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 152

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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