Invest 95L Brushes Louisiana Coastline

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:42 AM GMT on July 06, 2010

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Hi all,

Dr. Rob Carver, filling in for Jeff this week.

Midnight CDT Update
The low known as Invest 95L stopped it's northward progression and is now moving west along the Louisiana coastline. This is the oddest mesoscale convective complex/tropical feature I've seen in awhile. It's still producing a lot of rain, 2+ inches inland and 6+ inches over the ocean.


Base reflectivity from Lake Charles, LA at 11PM July 5 showing a very nice comma head. Animated loop.


Invest 95L is making landfall now in southern Louisiana near Terrebonne Bay. A CMAN station in Terrebonne Bay is currently reporting winds from the SE at 21 mph and the pressure is 1009 mb. Looking at the radar data, Invest 95L never had convection around the center of circulation. Also, it was hard to see a distinct surface circulation in the different analyses available. I believe soaking rains for southern Lousisana are going to be Invest 95L's main legacy. It's already produced 5+ inches of rain in some offshore locations according to radar-derived rainfall estimates.


Fig. 1 Meteogram for TRBL1 in Terrebonne Bay, LA. Tabular data are here.


Fig. 2 Base reflectivity from New Orleans, LA at 706PM, July 5. Animated loop.

Invest 96L
430 AM Update
In sum, the 00Z model runs don't present a different picture. It is curious to note that the Canadian Global model does not intensify 96L at all in the 00Z run, while NOGAPS has shifted towards a SE Louisiana landfall. I think the following discussion is still valid.

96L is going to be an interesting feature to forecast. It's still on the edge of a strong wind shear gradient. 40+ knots of shear are on the NE side of 96L, and <10 knots are on the SW side. The "center" of 96L is under about 15 knots of shear. This is likely inhibiting 96L. Nearly all forecast models take 96L NW through the Yucatan peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico. Near the Yucatan itself, sea-surface temperatures are relatively cool, not the best environment for intensification. However, at 25N, 87W there is a hotspot of SST's, which would promote rapid intensification. However, there's currently 20 knots of shear over the hotspot, so the thunderstorms that do form as a result will be well ventilated, and not cause 96L to intensify.

The dynamical models have different takes on how 96L intensifies in the next 120 hours. The 18Z operational GFS strongly intensifies 96L over the hotspot and takes 96L towards Grand Isle, LA. The parallel (for testing model configuration changes) GFS has a similar track, but does not strengthen 96L as much. This indicates uncertainty on how the models are handling the upper-level winds.

The 18Z HWRF solution is much like the parallel GFS solution. The 12Z Canadian global model has a more westerly track, pushing 96L towards Port Arthur, but it strengthens 96L right before it makes landfall, not when it's over open water. NOGAPS takes the "a little from column A, a little from column B" approach, with a spinup over the hotspot (op. GFS solution), but a westerly landfall (the Canadian solution). More data to initialize the models from synoptic reconnaissance flights will help reduce uncertainty.

The bottom line, 96L will move into the Gulf of Mexico and is then shrouded by the mists of uncertainty. I also think that it's a possibility (>50%) that it will become a tropical cyclone sometime in the next 48-72 hours (leaning towards sometime in day 2-3 based on the model runs.)


Fig. 3 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 GFS model run.Parallel GFS version.


Fig. 4 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 HWRF model run.


Fig. 5 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 12Z July 5 CMC global model run.NOGAPS wind swath.

Next update
I'll probably tweak this blog later tonight as new model runs come in. I'll have a full update tomorrow afternoon (Pacific time).

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Is 96L expected to do much?
What is the latest?
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In Houston, where they even have reporters stationed to report across the border, the Mexico Ark saga is not even being reported on.

Now the councilman who evaded police on a low speed six block chase, now thats news.....

Wonder if that dam is the one featured on the show build it bigger I think last season? It was flood control and I believe hydroelectric dam combined.
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good morning all!someone have an idea where the bermuda high will be in the heart of hurricane season???ao+ or ao-?
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Looks like Recon's canceled.
000
NOUS42 KNHC 051415
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT MON 05 JULY 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z JULY 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-035

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 06/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 06/1615Z
D. 24.5N 89.5W
E. 06/1715Z TO 06/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 07/0600, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 07/0345Z
D. 26.5N 91.5W
E. 07/0415Z TO 07/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE 3-HRLY FIXES
BEGINNING AT 07/1500Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARK: TASKING FOR 05/1800Z CANCELED BY NHC
AT 05/1140Z.


II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP



That was for yesterday... but as IKE pointed out, it will probably be cancelled for today since it is over land.
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866. IKE
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Looks like Recon's canceled.
000
NOUS42 KNHC 051415
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT MON 05 JULY 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z JULY 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-035

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 06/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 06/1615Z
D. 24.5N 89.5W
E. 06/1715Z TO 06/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 07/0600, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 07/0345Z
D. 26.5N 91.5W
E. 07/0415Z TO 07/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE 3-HRLY FIXES
BEGINNING AT 07/1500Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARK: TASKING FOR 05/1800Z CANCELED BY NHC
AT 05/1140Z.


II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP



That's yesterdays.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Over 15 inches of rain SW of Morgan City, La already!
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864. IKE
Deja vu? This is insane, all you did was say hello...speak my name...

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
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Looks like Recon's canceled.
000
NOUS42 KNHC 051415
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT MON 05 JULY 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z JULY 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-035

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 06/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 06/1615Z
D. 24.5N 89.5W
E. 06/1715Z TO 06/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 07/0600, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 07/0345Z
D. 26.5N 91.5W
E. 07/0415Z TO 07/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE 3-HRLY FIXES
BEGINNING AT 07/1500Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARK: TASKING FOR 05/1800Z CANCELED BY NHC
AT 05/1140Z.


II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

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Quoting Greyelf:


Link (Sorry...thought I knew how to imbed a Youtube video. guess not - so here's the herding cats video link.)


lol Greyelf! Reminds me of my workplace at the moment with all the layoffs happening.
Member Since: September 10, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 17
Anybody got the latest center fix on 96L...

Or a guesstimate?
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greyelf- thanks, I needed a smile this morning. Better to provide a link, that to post a youtube here on doc's blog, anyways. :)
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Morning you all!

95L sure didn't wanna let go.

96L putter putter and then KaBoom!
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Quoting Kristina40:
Haha aqua, I figured as much. Herding cats even.


Link (Sorry...thought I knew how to imbed a Youtube video. guess not - so here's the herding cats video link.)
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95L looking as impressive as ever, inland. I guess all the spurious amounts of rain, mixed with high winds just didn't qualifiy as a TD and any extra alerts for the people of sLA.

HHhhhhhhmmm. NHC mistake? Oh, well.
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Maybe they can do some recon over 96L so we can feed the models better data...
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LOL I guess even SSD thinks that this is more of a pacific type storm

06/0545 UTC 19.2N 85.0W T1.0/1.0 96L -- East Pacific

Even though it's more West Pacific like than EPAC I still think that's funny.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
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I'm off to work, have a great day all.
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Morning Storm
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846. IKE
Being it's over land, I'm guessing recon will get rescheduled...1800Z mission today seems unlikely.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Kris- seems like bouy 42056 and 42057 are getting a workout so far. You know how I feel about the ships' reports. Who knows.

mcluvin- then we could have a doozy of a cane.- sorry, just don't see that happening.
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Quoting cloudy0day:
Thank you BahaHurricanes and OrcaSystems!

Orca I always look at your graphics, I especially like the Sacrifice Poster that was on your blog!


ROFLMAO... I love that one.. Oss sent it to me as a joke... I kept it. I think it was Oss, I apologize if it wasn't.
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Quoting cloudy0day:
Good Morning Storm and Everyone!

Hey Storm; I have a question if you have time for a newbie. What would you recommend for basic products and/or sites (water vapor, shear maps, etc...) I need to be using as a start to monitor the tropics? There are some many sites with information. I have been watching this blog for many years and want to thank everyone for all the excellent information and entertainment also! I'm a FL native who has been through about a dozen hurricanes/depressions because I move a lot (9 cities in FL so far). I just really enjoy the science behind the weather patterns and the beautiful forms of the storms. I'm told I need an intervention because I spend so much time monitoring this blog, so I thought I'd put my toes in the water and try out joining in. Please let me know if I need to change something or break any rules as I get started.


Why not visit the college bookstore where all of this is taught and purchase the beginning textbook for starters.
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Thank you BahaHurricanes and OrcaSystems!

Orca I always look at your graphics, I especially like the Sacrifice Poster that was on your blog!
Member Since: September 10, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 17
Hasn't 96L. Been moving 10-15 MPH for about 4 days now. It should of been to Texas by now. I guess JB was right on when he said it wasn't a wave more like a monsoon type system. If it continues to move as slow as its been then we could have a doozy of a cane.
Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1339
839. Asta
re:
825. mtyweatherfan90
Flooding rains in Monterrey- Youtube Vid post

News report

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Haha aqua, I figured as much. Herding cats even. I just don't think it is as far West as some think. I'm watching pressures again and apparently the same ship with faulty pressure reading is sitting there again this morning with a 1008 reading. Also a couple more ships up in the Southern Gulf showing those 1008's right now.
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Quoting cloudy0day:
Good Morning Storm and Everyone!

Hey Storm; I have a question if you have time for a newbie. What would you recommend for basic products and/or sites (water vapor, shear maps, etc...) I need to be using as a start to monitor the tropics? There are some many sites with information. I have been watching this blog for many years and want to thank everyone for all the excellent information and entertainment also! I'm a FL native who has been through about a dozen hurricanes/depressions because I move a lot (9 cities in FL so far). I just really enjoy the science behind the weather patterns and the beautiful forms of the storms. I'm told I need an intervention because I spend so much time monitoring this blog, so I thought I'd put my toes in the water and try out joining in. Please let me know if I need to change something or break any rules as I get started.


Here is a great place for anyone to start, while your waiting form StormW to reply to your email :)

Hurricane 101
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Quoting cloudy0day:
Good Morning Storm and Everyone!

Hey Storm; I have a question if you have time for a newbie. What would you recommend for basic products and/or sites (water vapor, shear maps, etc...) I need to be using as a start to monitor the tropics? There are some many sites with information. I have been watching this blog for many years and want to thank everyone for all the excellent information and entertainment also! I'm a FL native who has been through about a dozen hurricanes/depressions because I move a lot (9 cities in FL so far). I just really enjoy the science behind the weather patterns and the beautiful forms of the storms. I'm told I need an intervention because I spend so much time monitoring this blog, so I thought I'd put my toes in the water and try out joining in. Please let me know if I need to change something or break any rules as I get started.
That sound's like the right kind of intervention! lol Welcome to the blog. Come on in... the water's fine, and we're trying to keep the tar balls out....
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Quoting StormW:


I have to leave right now, but if you want to send me a WU email, I post some links for you when I get back.


Thanks Storm!
Member Since: September 10, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 17
Quoting IKE:


Yup...I just walked by that railway in downtown DFS,FL. City is 25 miles east of Crestview,FL.
I remember that area between Crestview and Chipley as being sun-ridden, lots of greenery and sparkling streams every now and then.... one of my biggest regrets from that trip is that my digital camera was screwed up and I didn't get the kinds of pictures I wanted. I'll have to flip through the ones I do have to see if I got any of your neck of the woods...

Sad to think that the Limited will likely never be extended that far east again.... too expensive.
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Quoting Kristina40:
Did we ever get a consensus on where the center is for 96L?


that's like trying to get a straight answer from BP.

Probably not a true center, low and mid certainly ain't stacked.
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Quoting sporteguy03:


I can't post clickable links on Safari on a Mac, but I can with Firefox. I think Safari is browser related though.
I've found Firefox on Linux, Mac or Windows is the best browser for this blog. I don't think the developers test it on anything other than Explorer and Firefox. There are glitches with Opera, Safari and Chrome. This is just my observation a few months back. They may have corrected some of the glitches since.
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On the rain totals I was only talking about Texas rainfall totals not from Mexico but Alex's moisture just stalled in that area.
Member Since: July 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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Looks to be more consolidated than yesterday, deeper convection too. Currently Inland.

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Did we ever get a consensus on where the center is for 96L?
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Morning kman. What do u think are 96L's chances in the next 48-96?
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Quoting bohonkweatherman:
I received about 2 inches of rain from Alex, but areas west of Del Rio have received over 20 inches from Alex which is about their yearly average. So the movement of any future tropical systems is very important for Texas because the flooding could be unbelievable.


Actually in Monterrey it was over 25 inches and even some parts received 36 inches in 3 days. Which crested every river and creek on the city. Unfortunately as of now I'm watching the news and with the last 12 hours rains, several towns and cities in Coahuila and Nuevo León are experiencing historical flows and historical flooding. Some towns claim that they experienced the worst flooding in their history. It's unbelievable the images I can see. People are been evacuating in Northern Nuevo León since the collapse of the dam is almost inminent.
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Watching an area of NON-TROPICAL low pressure next to the East Coast, during the seasons low pressures that remain in place in the Atlantic can try to acquire Subtropical characteristics. May be tagged 97L in the near future.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7387
Good Morning Storm and Everyone!

Hey Storm; I have a question if you have time for a newbie. What would you recommend for basic products and/or sites (water vapor, shear maps, etc...) I need to be using as a start to monitor the tropics? There are some many sites with information. I have been watching this blog for many years and want to thank everyone for all the excellent information and entertainment also! I'm a FL native who has been through about a dozen hurricanes/depressions because I move a lot (9 cities in FL so far). I just really enjoy the science behind the weather patterns and the beautiful forms of the storms. I'm told I need an intervention because I spend so much time monitoring this blog, so I thought I'd put my toes in the water and try out joining in. Please let me know if I need to change something or break any rules as I get started.
Member Since: September 10, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 17
821. IKE
Quoting BahaHurican:
Defuniak Springs is on the railway as well, right? Near Crestview somewhere? If so, last time I went through there was on the Sunset Limited, about two weeks before Katrina hit LA/MS. And that trip was to make up for an aborted Sunset Limited trip from 2004, when Charley's strike on the west coast caused my train trip to be cancelled at NOLA... we got bussed to Orlando that time, so didn't see much from I-10....


Yup...I just walked by that railway in downtown DFS,FL. City is 25 miles east of Crestview,FL.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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