Invest 95L Brushes Louisiana Coastline

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:42 AM GMT on July 06, 2010

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Hi all,

Dr. Rob Carver, filling in for Jeff this week.

Midnight CDT Update
The low known as Invest 95L stopped it's northward progression and is now moving west along the Louisiana coastline. This is the oddest mesoscale convective complex/tropical feature I've seen in awhile. It's still producing a lot of rain, 2+ inches inland and 6+ inches over the ocean.


Base reflectivity from Lake Charles, LA at 11PM July 5 showing a very nice comma head. Animated loop.


Invest 95L is making landfall now in southern Louisiana near Terrebonne Bay. A CMAN station in Terrebonne Bay is currently reporting winds from the SE at 21 mph and the pressure is 1009 mb. Looking at the radar data, Invest 95L never had convection around the center of circulation. Also, it was hard to see a distinct surface circulation in the different analyses available. I believe soaking rains for southern Lousisana are going to be Invest 95L's main legacy. It's already produced 5+ inches of rain in some offshore locations according to radar-derived rainfall estimates.


Fig. 1 Meteogram for TRBL1 in Terrebonne Bay, LA. Tabular data are here.


Fig. 2 Base reflectivity from New Orleans, LA at 706PM, July 5. Animated loop.

Invest 96L
430 AM Update
In sum, the 00Z model runs don't present a different picture. It is curious to note that the Canadian Global model does not intensify 96L at all in the 00Z run, while NOGAPS has shifted towards a SE Louisiana landfall. I think the following discussion is still valid.

96L is going to be an interesting feature to forecast. It's still on the edge of a strong wind shear gradient. 40+ knots of shear are on the NE side of 96L, and <10 knots are on the SW side. The "center" of 96L is under about 15 knots of shear. This is likely inhibiting 96L. Nearly all forecast models take 96L NW through the Yucatan peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico. Near the Yucatan itself, sea-surface temperatures are relatively cool, not the best environment for intensification. However, at 25N, 87W there is a hotspot of SST's, which would promote rapid intensification. However, there's currently 20 knots of shear over the hotspot, so the thunderstorms that do form as a result will be well ventilated, and not cause 96L to intensify.

The dynamical models have different takes on how 96L intensifies in the next 120 hours. The 18Z operational GFS strongly intensifies 96L over the hotspot and takes 96L towards Grand Isle, LA. The parallel (for testing model configuration changes) GFS has a similar track, but does not strengthen 96L as much. This indicates uncertainty on how the models are handling the upper-level winds.

The 18Z HWRF solution is much like the parallel GFS solution. The 12Z Canadian global model has a more westerly track, pushing 96L towards Port Arthur, but it strengthens 96L right before it makes landfall, not when it's over open water. NOGAPS takes the "a little from column A, a little from column B" approach, with a spinup over the hotspot (op. GFS solution), but a westerly landfall (the Canadian solution). More data to initialize the models from synoptic reconnaissance flights will help reduce uncertainty.

The bottom line, 96L will move into the Gulf of Mexico and is then shrouded by the mists of uncertainty. I also think that it's a possibility (>50%) that it will become a tropical cyclone sometime in the next 48-72 hours (leaning towards sometime in day 2-3 based on the model runs.)


Fig. 3 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 GFS model run.Parallel GFS version.


Fig. 4 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 HWRF model run.


Fig. 5 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 12Z July 5 CMC global model run.NOGAPS wind swath.

Next update
I'll probably tweak this blog later tonight as new model runs come in. I'll have a full update tomorrow afternoon (Pacific time).

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this is very interesting

WEEK 2

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Squid28:


Have you noticed how all of the Houston mets are now puttig up a few "hand selected" models, you no longer see spaghetti plots etc. Even the ones they do show, they glance over very quickly.

I think that the weather reporting has been dumbed down both locally and nationally (TWC) to the point hat I almost feel as if I have lost IQ points for having spent the five minutes to watch it.

Only local met I had some level of trust in was Doc Neil on 11, but now he just comes in and does a spiel when a storm is on deck. Norman gives you all the "important" details while Neil talks about histoical track etc. They do not appear to like each other, and Neil appears to be restricted from giving his insight/thoughts over Normans. I really liked Neils insights and the level of detail he would give in his reports.


These guys have to play to their audience; when the audience is running about a 95 IQ they can't bring their full mental artillery to bear. The media outlets are treating us all as if we're as limited as they are from a mental standpoint and it does the public a great disservice in addition to adding to the dumbing down effect...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
I'm in Southwest LA and 95L on the local radar looks like the remnants of a tropical storm now over land, kinda bizarre.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AustinTXWeather:
Hi - 2 questions: on avg, how far can a hurricane make it inland before downgrading & what was the longest lasting hurricane (status wise) after hitting the us?

Carla produced 10-13 foot waves on Lake Travis with 60 mph wind gusts in Austin...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Still no RECON info...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The ITCZ is a bit more active.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cloudy0day:
Good Morning Storm and Everyone!

Hey Storm; I have a question if you have time for a newbie. What would you recommend for basic products and/or sites (water vapor, shear maps, etc...) I need to be using as a start to monitor the tropics? There are some many sites with information. I have been watching this blog for many years and want to thank everyone for all the excellent information and entertainment also! I'm a FL native who has been through about a dozen hurricanes/depressions because I move a lot (9 cities in FL so far). I just really enjoy the science behind the weather patterns and the beautiful forms of the storms. I'm told I need an intervention because I spend so much time monitoring this blog, so I thought I'd put my toes in the water and try out joining in. Please let me know if I need to change something or break any rules as I get started.


You have mail!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
Quoting angiest:


NWS Houston/Galveston has not even mentioned the model solutions that come to the Matagorda area (or even further east). It is odd, all they are looking at is the models when they go further west.

I'm not saying it's going here, or there, or somewhere else, just that I find it off they aren't even discussing the possbility.


Have you noticed how all of the Houston mets are now puttig up a few "hand selected" models, you no longer see spaghetti plots etc. Even the ones they do show, they glance over very quickly.

I think that the weather reporting has been dumbed down both locally and nationally (TWC) to the point hat I almost feel as if I have lost IQ points for having spent the five minutes to watch it.

Only local met I had some level of trust in was Doc Neil on 11, but now he just comes in and does a spiel when a storm is on deck. Norman gives you all the "important" details while Neil talks about histoical track etc. They do not appear to like each other, and Neil appears to be restricted from giving his insight/thoughts over Normans. I really liked Neils insights and the level of detail he would give in his reports.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 1 MILE
SOUTHWEST OF LAKEFRONT AIRPORT

that pretty close to SevereHurrcanes location...I'm further west
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting itrackstorms:


That may be one of the shortest tornado warnings I've ever seen.

Didn't look like much on the storm relative velocity. Might have been a VERY quick spinup which can happen with these type systems.


FYI -

Part of the warning is still in effect...

LAC071-061445-
/O.CON.KLIX.TO.W.0024.000000T0000Z-100706T1445Z/
ORLEANS LA-
938 AM CDT TUE JUL 6 2010

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 AM CDT FOR WEST
CENTRAL ORLEANS PARISH...

AT 933 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A POSSIBLE TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 1 MILE
SOUTHWEST OF LAKEFRONT AIRPORT...OR NEAR NEW ORLEANS...MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH. THE INITIAL THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE
TORNADO WARNING HAD DISSIPATED NEAR METAIRIE...BUT A NEW ROTATING
THUNDERSTORM MOVED INTO NEW ORLEANS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER
PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

&&

LAT...LON 3002 9012 3004 9011 3005 9002 3002 9001
2998 9007
TIME...MOT...LOC 1437Z 131DEG 13KT 3001 9007

$$
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Quoting Progster:


I can't see a tornado vortex signature on the doppler velocity...maybe its a small one.
There was a hook echo in the Algiers area a good 30 minutes ago moving NNW...that only lasted a couple of radar frames.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:


0000Z-100706T1445Z/
JEFFERSON LA-
938 AM CDT TUE JUL 6 2010

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON PARISH IS
CANCELLED...


That may be one of the shortest tornado warnings I've ever seen.

Didn't look like much on the storm relative velocity. Might have been a VERY quick spinup which can happen with these type systems.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Squid28:


Houston mets are downplaying it at this point as well. Basically thinking it will not impact the area or spill clean up. Apparentley, no one told them that their is not an invisible wall to kepp the wave action out of the area.

Also confirmed DWH tar balls in Galveston county....


NWS Houston/Galveston has not even mentioned the model solutions that come to the Matagorda area (or even further east). It is odd, all they are looking at is the models when they go further west.

I'm not saying it's going here, or there, or somewhere else, just that I find it off they aren't even discussing the possbility.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hmm a whole bunch of "hurry up and wait".



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Progster:


I can't see a tornado vortex signature on the doppler velocity...maybe its a small one.


0000Z-100706T1445Z/
JEFFERSON LA-
938 AM CDT TUE JUL 6 2010

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON PARISH IS
CANCELLED...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SevereHurricane:


I'm in Lakeview and I see no signs of rotation. Do you see anything?
no I'm off of Power and W.Esplanade. Nothing here I see but I'm about to go outside.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tkeith:
TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...

rut roh...that would be me

thanks
For such a small disturbance, its sure causing a lot of commotion.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20547
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
927 AM CDT TUE JUL 6 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF METAIRIE...
WEST CENTRAL ORLEANS PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...

* UNTIL 945 AM CDT

* AT 922 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR NEW
ORLEANS...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
METAIRIE BY 935 AM CDT...


I can't see a tornado vortex signature on the doppler velocity...maybe its a small one.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tkeith:
TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...

rut roh...that would be me

thanks


I'm in Lakeview and I see no signs of rotation. Do you see anything?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
Apparently the media and BP aren't too worried about 96L from looking at CNN's homepage. No mention of 96L.

I know...it's not developed yet....still...no mention.

I'm not sure BP has been too worried about any weather conditions since their "little mishap"!
I can't see 96L fizzling out, just wondering where will she land.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting frecklespugsley:
What a bust those NHC predictions were from the weekend. I guess they just wanted to color on the map.
those systems you speak of had 10% chance of development. Where is the busted forecast??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
Apparently the media and BP aren't too worried about 96L from looking at CNN's homepage. No mention of 96L.

I know...it's not developed yet....still...no mention.


Houston mets are downplaying it at this point as well. Basically thinking it will not impact the area or spill clean up. Apparentley, no one told them that their is not an invisible wall to kepp the wave action out of the area.

Also confirmed DWH tar balls in Galveston county....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
Apparently the media and BP aren't too worried about 96L from looking at CNN's homepage. No mention of 96L.

I know...it's not developed yet....still...no mention.
Cantore had an interesting statement last night. He said if there is a low in the Gulf, void of convection or disorganized, do not take your eyes off of it. Things can change so fast. Be ready.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20547
Good Morning all.

Desperate times as Alice shivers on coldest day.

An appeal has been launched for donations of blankets and dry bedding as rain forces people out of Alice Springs town camps on what is likely to be the town's coldest day on record.

The previous coldest day was in August 1966 when the maximum temperature reached just 7 degrees Celsius.

The temperature this afternoon has not gone above 6.3 degrees and almost 50 millimetres of rain have fallen since Monday.

The major service delivery agency for the town camps, Tangentyere Council, says it has run out of accommodation, dry firewood and blankets and does not know where people are going to go.

The council's social services manager, Margaret Reilly, says some people are taking shelter under a bridge over the Todd River.

"There's no firewood to be had in Alice Springs and there's no blankets to be had in Alice Springs," she said.

"People are in very, very damp, very, very cold situations at the moment.

"We've actually had a family whose tin shed has collapsed and we're trying to find a solution for them.

"So it's pretty desperate."

The council is asking that blankets be dropped off at the council, the Salvation Army or St Vincent de Paul offices.

© ABC 2010
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...

rut roh...that would be me

thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hi - 2 questions: on avg, how far can a hurricane make it inland before downgrading & what was the longest lasting hurricane (status wise) after hitting the us?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nola70119:
Over 15 inches of rain SW of Morgan City, La already!




Yup. But, I don't guess there's "anything" to talk about this morning. ROTFL. 95L was (is) a TD. One simply has to go back and look at all the loops to find a very clearly defined surface circulation (albeit small) and the system did maintain organized convection for more than 12 hours. 15 inches of rain? Yeah, not organized at all.
889. MahFL
95L may well be sucking up energy from a feeder band over the water.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
927 AM CDT TUE JUL 6 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF METAIRIE...
WEST CENTRAL ORLEANS PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...

* UNTIL 945 AM CDT

* AT 922 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR NEW
ORLEANS...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
METAIRIE BY 935 AM CDT...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
887. IKE
Apparently the media and BP aren't too worried about 96L from looking at CNN's homepage. No mention of 96L.

I know...it's not developed yet....still...no mention.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting IKE:


I've had 2.30 inches so far in July. I had 7.59 in June...7.62 in May. Approaching 18 inches since May 1st.


I honestly have not seen such a wet summer like this since 2005.
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885. IKE
Quoting SevereHurricane:


I hear ya, Ike. We've had rain almost everyday the past 2 weeks from all this deep tropical moisture that has been in place. Once could argue that this was TS Bonnie. My friend in Dulac, Louisiana had about a half an hour of Tropical Storm conditions yesterday. No real damage to speak of other then a few small branches and sparse power outages.


I've had 2.30 inches so far in July. I had 7.59 in June...7.62 in May. Approaching 18 inches since May 1st.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
We certainly started the season off deadly and destructive.

Hurricane Alex has killed 26 people, 22 are missing, 4 dead indirectly and has caused 1.21 billion dollars in damage. About 4 times as much damage as the entire 2009 hurricane season.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Eevn if 96L only gets to tropical storm strength, it scares me since basically anywhere from Mexico through Louisiana is saturated right now. A little wind and the tress will look like the old pick up sticks game all over the place. Not to mention I keep thinking of a nice big monsoonal type Allison event again.....
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Quoting hurricane23:
Not much to talk about this morning across the atl but the impressive TUTT signatures in the NE Caribbean sea. Looks unlikely to me 96L has enough time to re-organize before making landfall close to the Brownsville area sometime on thursday. Could be a serious rainmaker though.


Good morning "Killer," good to see you.
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Quoting IKE:


Morning...I had .86 inches of rain yesterday from TD2.


I hear ya, Ike. We've had rain almost everyday the past 2 weeks from all this deep tropical moisture that has been in place. Once could argue that this was TS Bonnie. My friend in Dulac, Louisiana had about a half an hour of Tropical Storm conditions yesterday. No real damage to speak of other then a few small branches and sparse power outages.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricane23:
Not much to talk about this morning across the atl but the impressive TUTT signatures in the NE Caribbean sea. Looks unlikely to me 96L has enough time to re-organize before making landfall close to the Brownsville area sometime on thursday. Could be a serious rainmaker though.


I disagree, 96L has a good shot in the Gulf.
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What a bust those NHC predictions were from the weekend. I guess they just wanted to color on the map.
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Not much to talk about this morning across the atl but the impressive TUTT signatures in the NE Caribbean sea. Looks unlikely to me 96L has enough time to re-organize before making landfall close to the Brownsville area sometime on thursday. Could be a serious rainmaker though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting duajones78413:
Is 96L expected to do much?
What is the latest?


The disturbance slowed down significantly overnight and is just off the Yucatan Peninsula coastline. The system is expected to cross the Yucatan today and impact S-Central Texas in a few days.
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873. IKE
Quoting SevereHurricane:
Good Morning Ike, DestinJeff, Aqua, Nola, and James.


Morning...I had .86 inches of rain yesterday from TD2.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Getting Closer...Almost to the upwards trend in the season.

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Good Morning Ike, DestinJeff, Aqua, Nola, and James.
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Is 96L expected to do much?
What is the latest?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.