Invest 95L Brushes Louisiana Coastline

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:42 AM GMT on July 06, 2010

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Hi all,

Dr. Rob Carver, filling in for Jeff this week.

Midnight CDT Update
The low known as Invest 95L stopped it's northward progression and is now moving west along the Louisiana coastline. This is the oddest mesoscale convective complex/tropical feature I've seen in awhile. It's still producing a lot of rain, 2+ inches inland and 6+ inches over the ocean.


Base reflectivity from Lake Charles, LA at 11PM July 5 showing a very nice comma head. Animated loop.


Invest 95L is making landfall now in southern Louisiana near Terrebonne Bay. A CMAN station in Terrebonne Bay is currently reporting winds from the SE at 21 mph and the pressure is 1009 mb. Looking at the radar data, Invest 95L never had convection around the center of circulation. Also, it was hard to see a distinct surface circulation in the different analyses available. I believe soaking rains for southern Lousisana are going to be Invest 95L's main legacy. It's already produced 5+ inches of rain in some offshore locations according to radar-derived rainfall estimates.


Fig. 1 Meteogram for TRBL1 in Terrebonne Bay, LA. Tabular data are here.


Fig. 2 Base reflectivity from New Orleans, LA at 706PM, July 5. Animated loop.

Invest 96L
430 AM Update
In sum, the 00Z model runs don't present a different picture. It is curious to note that the Canadian Global model does not intensify 96L at all in the 00Z run, while NOGAPS has shifted towards a SE Louisiana landfall. I think the following discussion is still valid.

96L is going to be an interesting feature to forecast. It's still on the edge of a strong wind shear gradient. 40+ knots of shear are on the NE side of 96L, and <10 knots are on the SW side. The "center" of 96L is under about 15 knots of shear. This is likely inhibiting 96L. Nearly all forecast models take 96L NW through the Yucatan peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico. Near the Yucatan itself, sea-surface temperatures are relatively cool, not the best environment for intensification. However, at 25N, 87W there is a hotspot of SST's, which would promote rapid intensification. However, there's currently 20 knots of shear over the hotspot, so the thunderstorms that do form as a result will be well ventilated, and not cause 96L to intensify.

The dynamical models have different takes on how 96L intensifies in the next 120 hours. The 18Z operational GFS strongly intensifies 96L over the hotspot and takes 96L towards Grand Isle, LA. The parallel (for testing model configuration changes) GFS has a similar track, but does not strengthen 96L as much. This indicates uncertainty on how the models are handling the upper-level winds.

The 18Z HWRF solution is much like the parallel GFS solution. The 12Z Canadian global model has a more westerly track, pushing 96L towards Port Arthur, but it strengthens 96L right before it makes landfall, not when it's over open water. NOGAPS takes the "a little from column A, a little from column B" approach, with a spinup over the hotspot (op. GFS solution), but a westerly landfall (the Canadian solution). More data to initialize the models from synoptic reconnaissance flights will help reduce uncertainty.

The bottom line, 96L will move into the Gulf of Mexico and is then shrouded by the mists of uncertainty. I also think that it's a possibility (>50%) that it will become a tropical cyclone sometime in the next 48-72 hours (leaning towards sometime in day 2-3 based on the model runs.)


Fig. 3 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 GFS model run.Parallel GFS version.


Fig. 4 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 HWRF model run.


Fig. 5 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 12Z July 5 CMC global model run.NOGAPS wind swath.

Next update
I'll probably tweak this blog later tonight as new model runs come in. I'll have a full update tomorrow afternoon (Pacific time).

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970. IKE
Do they proof read?


SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1030 AM CDT TUE JUL 06 2010

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD LOW PRES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 88W S OF 26N. THE LOW WILL MOVE NW TOE NEAR 23N92W
EARLY WED...27N94W EARLY THU...AND THEN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INLAND NE TEXAS THU NIGHT. THE COULD POSSIBLY DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD FROM THE E ALONG 28N THU
THROUGH SAT.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormSurgeon:


I used to beat my wife until uncle dad threatened to kick my butt if I hit my sister again....sorry ya'll, no more, I promise.


you'd make a fine Arkansan...
:)
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Quoting AllBoardedUp:
The report now in Galveston on the tar balls that landed on local beaches are from the DWH spill, but they think it was from bilge pumps or the side of ships that went through the spill area and not from currents. Local government quick to downplay it all. Tourist season, ya know.


Was in Matagorda last weekend fishing in a tournament and saw "shredded" pieces of oil boom sections floating not far from the beach. Wish I had taken a picture of them. Reports of something "black/brown" now washing up in upper Galveston bay. Could be something else, picture is not the best.....

OIl?
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Quoting txag91met:

Carla produced 10-13 foot waves on Lake Travis with 60 mph wind gusts in Austin...
om
Gosh I can't even fathom that on lake Travis. U answered one of our questions was just discussing whether a hurricane or strong ts could hit austin
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Well, the 3rd largest refinery in the nation (capacity wise) is located here in Texas City. Guess who? BP! Maybe they can just funnel the oil through the Galveston jetties and into the Texas City Ship Channel, right up to BP's docks and put the oil to good use. Might save on shipping costs!
Member Since: July 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 626
It's from the DWH spill, the winds shifted two days ago and the spill plume is heading in that area.

I think that shift west of the "spoil" plume started with Alex...
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963. IKE
Cozumel, MX (Airport)
Updated: 28 min 49 sec ago
Overcast
73 °F
Overcast
Humidity: 100%
Dew Point: 73 °F
Wind: Calm
Pressure: 29.85 in (Rising)
Visibility: 5.0 miles
UV: 3 out of 16
Clouds:
Scattered Clouds 1200 ft
Mostly Cloudy 8000 ft
Overcast 25000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 16 ft
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Classic example of the day after a Landfall.."beware the tail of the storm the next day"...


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128272
That wasn't a tornado but LIX warns waterspouts something KMOB will not do . It's up to the local MIC
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Quoting StormChaser81:


It's from the DWH spill, the winds shifted two days ago and the spill plume is heading in that area.
Wonderful, just wonderful.
Member Since: July 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 626
Quoting StormSurgeon:


I agree Flood. It's a slap in the face to have our intelligence insulted by the media or any other entity......now excuse me while I go brush my tooth and comb my mullet....


Don't forget to wear your best wife beater (that would be a white tank top undershirt for those not in the know) for your TV interview when they ask you what the tornado sounded like as it came through the trailer park.

Note: I really do not have anything against trailer parks or the residents (spent some quality time in a trailer after Ike). But that is where the news crews always head after any weather event around here even if it was an F1 tornado 75 miles away.
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NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans, Storm Relative Mean Radial Velocity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128272
Quoting tkeith:
Pat, local Met on 6 said it started as a water spout. Is this common, awater spout going on land as a tornado?

We had one of them here in Australia, 150km/h winds...93mph. Took out a whole street.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Quoting kfont23:
I'm in Southwest LA and 95L on the local radar looks like the remnants of a tropical storm now over land, kinda bizarre.


Having just come in to my office from the parking lot (in Eunice, LA), it not only looks like the remnants of a TS, but it feels like, as well: My umbrella kept my head dry, but that's about all.
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Quoting AllBoardedUp:
The report now in Galveston on the tar balls that landed on local beaches are from the DWH spill, but they think it was from bilge pumps or the side of ships that went through the spill area and not from currents. Local government quick to downplay it all. Tourist season, ya know.


It's from the DWH spill, the winds shifted two days ago and the spill plume is heading in that area.
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315
Quoting GetReal:
Patrap there is some spin, and lift to the squall coming from Marrero, and headed across the MS river towards Uptown... Your area Pat!!!


Im on it..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128272
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:


Nope 96L is dead :)

?
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96L has a big butt today




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128272
Patrap there is some spin, and lift to the squall coming from Marrero, and headed across the MS river towards Uptown... Your area Pat!!!
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The report now in Galveston on the tar balls that landed on local beaches are from the DWH spill, but they think it was from bilge pumps or the side of ships that went through the spill area and not from currents. Local government quick to downplay it all. Tourist season, ya know.
Member Since: July 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 626
The storms woke me this morning at 4:30, been awake since. Was planning on going to Algiers to the commissary, but I think I am just going to stay home for now :)
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Quoting Patrap:
There's a 96L ?



Nope 96L is dead :)
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Quoting Patrap:
There's a 96L ?



Haaaaa, I was thinking the same thing...
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
I meant Billingsley is the best on one TV (in my opinion).
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There's a 96L ?

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128272
now excuse me while I go brush my tooth and comb my mullet....

you got relatives in Arkansas too?
:)
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Quoting Patrap:
I bet some are not going to "Forget 95L "

pfffth..
Hey!!! Can we concentrate on 96L? LOL Sorry patrap, I couldn't resist.
Member Since: July 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 626
95 is still quite the little spinner.. causing quite a few problems.. if it could've detached from the front about 24-36 hrs sooner who knows what would've come about
Member Since: May 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 111
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
It was tornado warned cause a Funnel cloud was reported by a trained spotter at 926am


Does everything you type have to be in bold?

;)
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I was still sleeping last Hour till the NOAA Radio said, get up ya Slouch..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128272
Quoting txag91met:

He is alright...he isn't the best one...best one is not on TV.


Really liked Bill Reid when he was with the local met office, you could actually leave him a voice mail and he would always call back. I met him back when he went around and did the hurricane prepardness presentations in Galveston county.
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Quoting Floodman:


These guys have to play to their audience; when the audience is running about a 95 IQ they can't bring their full mental artillery to bear. The media outlets are treating us all as if we're as limited as they are from a mental standpoint and it does the public a great disservice in addition to adding to the dumbing down effect...


I agree Flood. It's a slap in the face to have our intelligence insulted by the media or any other entity......now excuse me while I go brush my tooth and comb my mullet....
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
Quoting FLdewey:


Jess


Easily..one came off Lake P a year or so ago..into Lakeview,Metairie
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128272
It was tornado warned cause a Funnel cloud was reported by a trained spotter at 926am
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Quoting txag91met:

Carla produced 10-13 foot waves on Lake Travis with 60 mph wind gusts in Austin...
I had no idea Lake Travis had been around that long. What year did they finish the dam?
Member Since: July 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 626
Pat, local Met on 6 said it started as a water spout. Is this common, awater spout going on land as a tornado?
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Well, here in Lafourche Parish we are still getting hit with rain from 95L. We were at our camp yesterday which is outside of our levee system and we had about 2 foot of water on the wharf. The south wind was eating us up and now I am sure it is just getting deeper as this day goes on.
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I bet some are not going to "Forget 95L "

pfffth..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128272
Quoting headshaker:
Frank Billingsley is the best met in Houston

He is alright...he isn't the best one...best one is not on TV.
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320
WFUS54 KLIX 061449
TORLIX
LAC071-061500-
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0025.100706T1449Z-100706T1500Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
949 AM CDT TUE JUL 6 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL ORLEANS PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 1000 AM CDT

* AT 944 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A TORNADO OVER ORLEANS PARISH...2 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
LAKEFRONT AIRPORT...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH TOWARDS THE
LAKEFRONT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER
PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.



LAT...LON 2997 9007 3001 9012 3002 9012 3004 9011
3004 9005 3002 9004
TIME...MOT...LOC 1449Z 129DEG 9KT 3003 9008

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128272
Frank Billingsley is the best met in Houston
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...jes a lil t'storm. ;P
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this is very interesting

WEEK 2

Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12016

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.