Invest 95L Brushes Louisiana Coastline

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:42 AM GMT on July 06, 2010

Share this Blog
3
+

Hi all,

Dr. Rob Carver, filling in for Jeff this week.

Midnight CDT Update
The low known as Invest 95L stopped it's northward progression and is now moving west along the Louisiana coastline. This is the oddest mesoscale convective complex/tropical feature I've seen in awhile. It's still producing a lot of rain, 2+ inches inland and 6+ inches over the ocean.


Base reflectivity from Lake Charles, LA at 11PM July 5 showing a very nice comma head. Animated loop.


Invest 95L is making landfall now in southern Louisiana near Terrebonne Bay. A CMAN station in Terrebonne Bay is currently reporting winds from the SE at 21 mph and the pressure is 1009 mb. Looking at the radar data, Invest 95L never had convection around the center of circulation. Also, it was hard to see a distinct surface circulation in the different analyses available. I believe soaking rains for southern Lousisana are going to be Invest 95L's main legacy. It's already produced 5+ inches of rain in some offshore locations according to radar-derived rainfall estimates.


Fig. 1 Meteogram for TRBL1 in Terrebonne Bay, LA. Tabular data are here.


Fig. 2 Base reflectivity from New Orleans, LA at 706PM, July 5. Animated loop.

Invest 96L
430 AM Update
In sum, the 00Z model runs don't present a different picture. It is curious to note that the Canadian Global model does not intensify 96L at all in the 00Z run, while NOGAPS has shifted towards a SE Louisiana landfall. I think the following discussion is still valid.

96L is going to be an interesting feature to forecast. It's still on the edge of a strong wind shear gradient. 40+ knots of shear are on the NE side of 96L, and <10 knots are on the SW side. The "center" of 96L is under about 15 knots of shear. This is likely inhibiting 96L. Nearly all forecast models take 96L NW through the Yucatan peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico. Near the Yucatan itself, sea-surface temperatures are relatively cool, not the best environment for intensification. However, at 25N, 87W there is a hotspot of SST's, which would promote rapid intensification. However, there's currently 20 knots of shear over the hotspot, so the thunderstorms that do form as a result will be well ventilated, and not cause 96L to intensify.

The dynamical models have different takes on how 96L intensifies in the next 120 hours. The 18Z operational GFS strongly intensifies 96L over the hotspot and takes 96L towards Grand Isle, LA. The parallel (for testing model configuration changes) GFS has a similar track, but does not strengthen 96L as much. This indicates uncertainty on how the models are handling the upper-level winds.

The 18Z HWRF solution is much like the parallel GFS solution. The 12Z Canadian global model has a more westerly track, pushing 96L towards Port Arthur, but it strengthens 96L right before it makes landfall, not when it's over open water. NOGAPS takes the "a little from column A, a little from column B" approach, with a spinup over the hotspot (op. GFS solution), but a westerly landfall (the Canadian solution). More data to initialize the models from synoptic reconnaissance flights will help reduce uncertainty.

The bottom line, 96L will move into the Gulf of Mexico and is then shrouded by the mists of uncertainty. I also think that it's a possibility (>50%) that it will become a tropical cyclone sometime in the next 48-72 hours (leaning towards sometime in day 2-3 based on the model runs.)


Fig. 3 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 GFS model run.Parallel GFS version.


Fig. 4 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 HWRF model run.


Fig. 5 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 12Z July 5 CMC global model run.NOGAPS wind swath.

Next update
I'll probably tweak this blog later tonight as new model runs come in. I'll have a full update tomorrow afternoon (Pacific time).

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1020 - 970

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43Blog Index

Quoting hydrus:
Some say the low was never closed off, so no T.D.



Some don't think Elvis is dead either....I could go on...
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 571
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
926 AM CDT TUE JUL 06 2010

Quote:
.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON

.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.

..REMARKS..

0922 AM FLOOD LYDIA 29.92N 91.78W
07/06/2010 IBERIA LA EMERGENCY MNGR

IBERIA PARISH EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTS 18 ROADS
IMPASSABLE AND CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER AROUND THE
PARISH.

wow....not good
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3488
Quoting AussieStorm:

It has a nice radar presentation, even after landfall.


Not sure I want to go there after the "words" that were exchanged over that last night, lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tropicfreak:
WOW! Look at these temps! Already in the mid to upper 90s in Richmond, DC, Baltimore. Its not even noon yet, and by the looks of that, its not going to be pretty this afternoon, up into the triple digits, heard richmond(where I live) will have highs around 101 this afternoon.

That's hot, even for my standards. What is the humidity like in these area? Now they know how we feel on the Texas coast when it gets below 40 degrees! You would have thought we were in Alaska!
Member Since: July 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 626
1016. cg2916
Quoting IKE:


Think it should be. NHC should have sent a recon into it, as close to the coast as it was...short flight.


Agreed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tropicfreak:
WOW! Look at these temps! Already in the mid to upper 90s in Richmond, DC, Baltimore. Its not even noon yet, and by the looks of that, its not going to be pretty this afternoon, up into the triple digits, heard richmond(where I live) will have highs around 101 this afternoon.


mmm toasty warm,,, nice.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
1013. hydrus
Quoting IKE:


Think it should be. NHC should have sent a recon into it, as close to the coast as it was...short flight.
Some say the low was never closed off, so no T.D.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21416
Quoting Patrap:
JB sounds a tad stressed.

Maybe mo gym is in order?.


Prolly is. Most of us are these days.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 571
1011. cg2916
Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:
what this!!!!!


Mother nature stole some of the CMC's coke.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


Think it should be. NHC should have sent a recon into it, as close to the coast as it was...short flight.

It has a nice radar presentation, even after landfall.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
Quoting AussieStorm:
Who here thinks 95L will be upgraded in the post season?


I've become cynical enough to go with "not likely". As it would impact their "skill scores" negatively. It met the criteria in my opinion. I would like to see more hard, objective data.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 571
Quoting IKE:


Think it should be. NHC should have sent a recon into it, as close to the coast as it was...short flight.
They could have drove through it, instead of flying! LOL
Member Since: July 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 626
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
926 AM CDT TUE JUL 06 2010

Quote:
.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON

.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.

..REMARKS..

0922 AM FLOOD LYDIA 29.92N 91.78W
07/06/2010 IBERIA LA EMERGENCY MNGR

IBERIA PARISH EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTS 18 ROADS
IMPASSABLE AND CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER AROUND THE
PARISH.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tropicfreak:


We had a TD yesterday??


Yea, 95L unofficially was TD2. They never issued a renumber but they ran data on a TD. Poor consistency from the NHC is what we saw yesterday. 0% to 60% then back to 0% then 95L (02L) went back over water and intensified then made landfall again.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
WOW! Look at these temps! Already in the mid to upper 90s in Richmond, DC, Baltimore. Its not even noon yet, and by the looks of that, its not going to be pretty this afternoon, up into the triple digits, heard richmond(where I live) will have highs around 101 this afternoon.

Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
Quoting swlavp:
I know the feeling Hannah..I'm just south of you! Had enough rain for awhile though...LOL

Yep...enough already. If 96l comes this way and brings even more rain....jinkies, we'll really need the boats!
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3488
1002. Patrap
JB sounds a tad stressed.

Maybe mo gym is in order?.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
1001. IKE
Quoting AussieStorm:
Who here thinks 95L will be upgraded in the post season?


Think it should be. NHC should have sent a recon into it, as close to the coast as it was...short flight.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1000. Dakster
Quoting frecklespugsley:
What a bust those NHC predictions were from the weekend. I guess they just wanted to color on the map.


??? The only one that had a greater chance of forming than NOT was 96L and that was only 60%... Not saying they are "gods of the weather", but try and cut them a little slack.

If anything I find the NHC to be a little too conservative - Just my .02's.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10462
Quoting hurricanehanna:

Here in Lafayette, we sat outside last night and enjoyed a constant cool breeze...felt just like a TS coming in. Now, with all the rain, it's like the TS made landfall
I know the feeling Hannah..I'm just south of you! Had enough rain for awhile though...LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Who here thinks 95L will be upgraded in the post season?
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
Quoting Buhdog:
I am just appalled at the lack of sunshine in swfl today! At least the temps are down and that should temper some of the rain i would think.


Your rain has been oozing up hear everyday also! It’s making it hard for me to finish building my pergola. I may never get the porch stained... need 24 hours with no rain. Hope you dry out soon!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kfont23:
I'm in Southwest LA and 95L on the local radar looks like the remnants of a tropical storm now over land, kinda bizarre.

Here in Lafayette, we sat outside last night and enjoyed a constant cool breeze...felt just like a TS coming in. Now, with all the rain, it's like the TS made landfall
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3488
So.... what are the odds on 96L today? do we think it will be become a hurricane? and where do we think it will land?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
RE: 990

aka TropicalAmanda?
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 571
Morning all. I see 96L has become better organized since I checked in last night. Looks more like a blob, but it looks better. It has a little banding to it.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
992. IKE
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT TUE 06 JULY 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z JULY 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-036

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 07/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 07/1600Z
D. 23.0N 91.0W
E. 07/1715Z TO 07/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 08/0600, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 08/0330Z
D. 25.0N 93.5W
E. 08/0445Z TO 08/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE 3-HRLY FIXES
BEGINNING AT 08/1500Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS:
A. TASKING FOR 06/1800Z, 07/0600Z AND 07/1200Z
CANCELED BY NHC AT 06/1210Z.
B. NOAA'S P-3 WILL BEGIN A SERIES OF FOUR RESEARCH
MISSIONS INTO THIS AREA AT 06/2000Z TODAY AND
THEN DEPARTING EVERY 12 HRS. OPERATING ALTITUDE
12,000 FT.


II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
991. IKE
I always look at every post I make and edit errors. Just shocked they don't. How long does it take? It's not like there's 3 or 4 named systems in the ATL.

Rant over.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
989. IKE
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Hey Ike! It's not just the TPC, aka NHC, thats asleep at the switch sometimes.
Our tax dollars at work!

Here's JB's take on the current heatwave affecting the east coast this week.


MONDAY 10 A.M.
DRUDGE HEADLINE ASKS: WILL THE GRID HOLD?

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20100706/D9GPH75G0.html

I ask my readers to look back here to this, a quote from THURSDAY at 7 a.m., when the highest numbers for the next eight days in DC and NYC were 95 and 93 respectively:

"...With the strain on the power grid earlier this week, the big weather news next week is the heat that could lead to rolling blackouts in the East. If the past heat wave is any indication, then look out..."

I look at my job as a fight. You wonder why you need a private sector? Because we compete and if not correct enough, we get fired. Where was NOAA last week in the Northeast for what was coming up? Low to mid-90s? That is a run-of-the-mill, a-few-times-a-summer heat wave. Newark is 95 at 9 a.m.... There is a heck of a difference between seeing something like this. So yes, my competitive individualism is darn well coming out to let you know there is value in some things that aren't coming from the government. I have made my point... let's hope there are no blackouts today or tomorrow as peoples' lives are at stake given what can happen with non air conditioned places.

The rules are this. If I am right and NOAA is wrong, nothing is said. If I am wrong, then you can be darn sure there are people attacking me across the board. So I better darn well bring things like this up, so they are duly noted and logged.

I better cool down... it's hot enough already.

Ciao for now.


I hear ya...and Bastardi.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Wake up in the morning feeling like 96L
(Hey, what up Invest?)
Put my glasses on, Im on the GFS - Im gonna hit this Run(Lets go)
Before I log on, brush my teeth with a bottle of Capri Sun
Cause when I post for the night, I aim to be Number one
Im talking - mjo on our, toes, Blows
Trying on all our GOES,GOES
Post's blowing up our phones, phones
Drop-toping, playing our favorite cds
Pulling up to the Blog-sies
Trying to get a little bit tipsy..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
Quoting Buhdog:
I am just appalled at the lack of sunshine in swfl today! At least the temps are down and that should temper some of the rain i would think.


same in SEFL.. but i have the day off.. i wouldnt care if it rained all day today lol
Member Since: May 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 111
Quoting tropicfreak:


We had a TD yesterday??


No, he's just referring to it as that because ATCF (which is unofficial and preliminary data) called it "TD" rather than "LO" at one point yesterday.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


Morning...I had .86 inches of rain yesterday from TD2.


We had a TD yesterday??
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
Quoting Floodman:


Well, as we say in Missouri:
"Tornados are proof that God hates trailer parks"

We have become a nation of people whose attention span is limited to 30 seconds or so, unless we're talking something sensational...you know, train wrecks, tornados, hurricanes, that sort of thing. We teach our children through example, so they're the same: if it isn't blowing up, flooding or there isn't some loss of life, we (and they) can't be bothered. To some degree, though, in all fairness, we've always been this way. It's just that in the last 25 years or so it's become far worse; add to that the apparent hatred of intellectuals we seem have bred in this country and you have a recipe for disaster. Everyone wants to know why other countries are passing us up? WHy we're falling behind uin science and all the other "intellectual" disciplines? It's because of us...we've done this to ourselves...


I dont feel tardy ?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
Quoting LightningCharmer:
No-one sticking-up for Arkansas? They must not have any of that tropical weather in them parts.
just tornados and lots of skeeters...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Squid28:


Don't forget to wear your best wife beater (that would be a white tank top undershirt for those not in the know) for your TV interview when they ask you what the tornado sounded like as it came through the trailer park.

Note: I really do not have anything against trailer parks or the residents (spent some quality time in a trailer after Ike). But that is where the news crews always head after any weather event around here even if it was an F1 tornado 75 miles away.


Well, as we say in Missouri:
"Tornados are proof that God hates trailer parks"

We have become a nation of people whose attention span is limited to 30 seconds or so, unless we're talking something sensational...you know, train wrecks, tornados, hurricanes, that sort of thing. We teach our children through example, so they're the same: if it isn't blowing up, flooding or there isn't some loss of life, we (and they) can't be bothered. To some degree, though, in all fairness, we've always been this way. It's just that in the last 25 years or so it's become far worse; add to that the apparent hatred of intellectuals we seem have bred in this country and you have a recipe for disaster. Everyone wants to know why other countries are passing us up? WHy we're falling behind uin science and all the other "intellectual" disciplines? It's because of us...we've done this to ourselves...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
Hey Ike! It's not just the TPC, aka NHC, thats asleep at the switch sometimes.
Our tax dollars at work!

Here's JB's take on the current heatwave affecting the east coast this week.


MONDAY 10 A.M.
DRUDGE HEADLINE ASKS: WILL THE GRID HOLD?

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20100706/D9GPH75G0.html

I ask my readers to look back here to this, a quote from THURSDAY at 7 a.m., when the highest numbers for the next eight days in DC and NYC were 95 and 93 respectively:

"...With the strain on the power grid earlier this week, the big weather news next week is the heat that could lead to rolling blackouts in the East. If the past heat wave is any indication, then look out..."

I look at my job as a fight. You wonder why you need a private sector? Because we compete and if not correct enough, we get fired. Where was NOAA last week in the Northeast for what was coming up? Low to mid-90s? That is a run-of-the-mill, a-few-times-a-summer heat wave. Newark is 95 at 9 a.m.... There is a heck of a difference between seeing something like this. So yes, my competitive individualism is darn well coming out to let you know there is value in some things that aren't coming from the government. I have made my point... let's hope there are no blackouts today or tomorrow as peoples' lives are at stake given what can happen with non air conditioned places.

The rules are this. If I am right and NOAA is wrong, nothing is said. If I am wrong, then you can be darn sure there are people attacking me across the board. So I better darn well bring things like this up, so they are duly noted and logged.

I better cool down... it's hot enough already.

Ciao for now.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 571
997, are you referring to the same person I compared to Napoleon Dynamite last night?
Member Since: July 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 626
"FIST WAVE".....are waves making a fist?

Are these the same folks that went from 0% to 60% to 0% again on 95L/TD2, within 3 hours?



"U betcha's"
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
I am just appalled at the lack of sunshine in swfl today! At least the temps are down and that should temper some of the rain i would think.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
977. IKE
"FIST WAVE".....are waves making a fist?

Are these the same folks that went from 0% to 60% to 0% again on 95L/TD2, within 3 hours?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tkeith:


you'd make a fine Arkansan...
:)
No-one sticking-up for Arkansas? They must not have any of that tropical weather in them parts.
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
975. IKE
Quoting will45:


I guess whats hsi name wrote thatone


Teh odds are he did!


Maybe he wrote this one too...

SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
1130 AM EDT TUE JUL 06 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WILL SLOWLY
MOVE W AWAY FROM THE AREA. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W
AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WED AND THU. A THIRD
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 53W/54 S OF 13N IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
TROPICAL N ATLC LATER TODAY AND FOLLOW THE FIST WAVE THROUGH THE
CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI. A FOURTH TROPICAL WAVE WELL E OF THE AREA
WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS BY FRI AND THE E
CARIBBEAN SAT.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Not only is 96l healthy, the sheer that is keeping it down virtually disappears once it gets off the other side of the Yucpen. Not to mention that not too far of shore there is 29/30 temps.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
Do they proof read?


SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1030 AM CDT TUE JUL 06 2010

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD LOW PRES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 88W S OF 26N. THE LOW WILL MOVE NW TOE NEAR 23N92W
EARLY WED...27N94W EARLY THU...AND THEN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INLAND NE TEXAS THU NIGHT. THE COULD POSSIBLY DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD FROM THE E ALONG 28N THU
THROUGH SAT.


I guess whats hsi name wrote thatone
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This is WEEK 1 with 96L in the gulf

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tkeith:


you'd make a fine Arkansan...
:)


....LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
970. IKE
Do they proof read?


SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1030 AM CDT TUE JUL 06 2010

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD LOW PRES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 88W S OF 26N. THE LOW WILL MOVE NW TOE NEAR 23N92W
EARLY WED...27N94W EARLY THU...AND THEN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INLAND NE TEXAS THU NIGHT. THE COULD POSSIBLY DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD FROM THE E ALONG 28N THU
THROUGH SAT.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1020 - 970

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
66 °F
Overcast