Invest 95L Brushes Louisiana Coastline

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:42 AM GMT on July 06, 2010

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Hi all,

Dr. Rob Carver, filling in for Jeff this week.

Midnight CDT Update
The low known as Invest 95L stopped it's northward progression and is now moving west along the Louisiana coastline. This is the oddest mesoscale convective complex/tropical feature I've seen in awhile. It's still producing a lot of rain, 2+ inches inland and 6+ inches over the ocean.


Base reflectivity from Lake Charles, LA at 11PM July 5 showing a very nice comma head. Animated loop.


Invest 95L is making landfall now in southern Louisiana near Terrebonne Bay. A CMAN station in Terrebonne Bay is currently reporting winds from the SE at 21 mph and the pressure is 1009 mb. Looking at the radar data, Invest 95L never had convection around the center of circulation. Also, it was hard to see a distinct surface circulation in the different analyses available. I believe soaking rains for southern Lousisana are going to be Invest 95L's main legacy. It's already produced 5+ inches of rain in some offshore locations according to radar-derived rainfall estimates.


Fig. 1 Meteogram for TRBL1 in Terrebonne Bay, LA. Tabular data are here.


Fig. 2 Base reflectivity from New Orleans, LA at 706PM, July 5. Animated loop.

Invest 96L
430 AM Update
In sum, the 00Z model runs don't present a different picture. It is curious to note that the Canadian Global model does not intensify 96L at all in the 00Z run, while NOGAPS has shifted towards a SE Louisiana landfall. I think the following discussion is still valid.

96L is going to be an interesting feature to forecast. It's still on the edge of a strong wind shear gradient. 40+ knots of shear are on the NE side of 96L, and <10 knots are on the SW side. The "center" of 96L is under about 15 knots of shear. This is likely inhibiting 96L. Nearly all forecast models take 96L NW through the Yucatan peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico. Near the Yucatan itself, sea-surface temperatures are relatively cool, not the best environment for intensification. However, at 25N, 87W there is a hotspot of SST's, which would promote rapid intensification. However, there's currently 20 knots of shear over the hotspot, so the thunderstorms that do form as a result will be well ventilated, and not cause 96L to intensify.

The dynamical models have different takes on how 96L intensifies in the next 120 hours. The 18Z operational GFS strongly intensifies 96L over the hotspot and takes 96L towards Grand Isle, LA. The parallel (for testing model configuration changes) GFS has a similar track, but does not strengthen 96L as much. This indicates uncertainty on how the models are handling the upper-level winds.

The 18Z HWRF solution is much like the parallel GFS solution. The 12Z Canadian global model has a more westerly track, pushing 96L towards Port Arthur, but it strengthens 96L right before it makes landfall, not when it's over open water. NOGAPS takes the "a little from column A, a little from column B" approach, with a spinup over the hotspot (op. GFS solution), but a westerly landfall (the Canadian solution). More data to initialize the models from synoptic reconnaissance flights will help reduce uncertainty.

The bottom line, 96L will move into the Gulf of Mexico and is then shrouded by the mists of uncertainty. I also think that it's a possibility (>50%) that it will become a tropical cyclone sometime in the next 48-72 hours (leaning towards sometime in day 2-3 based on the model runs.)


Fig. 3 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 GFS model run.Parallel GFS version.


Fig. 4 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 HWRF model run.


Fig. 5 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 12Z July 5 CMC global model run.NOGAPS wind swath.

Next update
I'll probably tweak this blog later tonight as new model runs come in. I'll have a full update tomorrow afternoon (Pacific time).

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1070. HoustonTxGal
4:02 PM GMT on July 06, 2010
NHC model runs for 96L


Link
Member Since: September 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1074
1069. CaribbeanIslandStorm
4:01 PM GMT on July 06, 2010
Quoting rmbjoe1954:


Whatever happened to the Antilles, now PR 'low' that was once on NHC's radar?

last night it was at a zero percent, however that doesn't mean we won't get rain and wind!
1068. AllBoardedUp
4:00 PM GMT on July 06, 2010
1062, some people do have jobs! The nerve of them! LOL
Member Since: July 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 626
1066. AussieStorm
3:59 PM GMT on July 06, 2010
How do I get to view a full length loop on radars. all i get is 6 frames.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
1065. angiest
3:59 PM GMT on July 06, 2010
Grrr, 10:30 NWS Houston/Galveston discussion doesn't even mention 96L at all. They did spend a bunch of time discussing the rainfall threat from semitropical (their word) 95L.

What makes this doubly frustrating is work is trying to plan a major upgrade to some of our infrastructure for Saturday and I kinda need to know if I should mention this as a reason to scrub.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
1064. HoustonTxGal
3:59 PM GMT on July 06, 2010
Member Since: September 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1074
1063. AussieStorm
3:58 PM GMT on July 06, 2010
Quoting NOLABean:
Somebody likin' the caps much this morning?
Aussie, please mail some of that our way!

Make sure you send me some of your nice hot weather,,,, I HATE WINTER
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
1062. 69Viking
3:58 PM GMT on July 06, 2010
Hello everyone, amazingly quiet considering the location of 96L! I guess another storm heading to TX or Mexico in the first or second week of July doesn't excite anyone after Alex! Plenty of rain here in the FL Panhandle, doesn't seem to want to stop lately! I guess we can thank 95L for that!
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3094
1061. CaribbeanIslandStorm
3:57 PM GMT on July 06, 2010
1060. AussieStorm
3:57 PM GMT on July 06, 2010
Quoting tropicfreak:


No LOL thats ok.

Feel free to come join me beside the heater, hot cuppa coffee here for ya.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
1059. HoustonTxGal
3:57 PM GMT on July 06, 2010
12Z Spaghetti Models

Member Since: September 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1074
1058. rmbjoe1954
3:56 PM GMT on July 06, 2010
Quoting CaribbeanIslandStorm:

We are getting pummeled in Eastern Puerto Rico!


Whatever happened to the Antilles, now PR 'low' that was once on NHC's radar?
Member Since: June 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1433
1057. muddertracker
3:56 PM GMT on July 06, 2010


TVCN. Good afternoon everyone, and..well, good mornin' to some.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2351
1056. NOLABean
3:56 PM GMT on July 06, 2010
Somebody likin' the caps much this morning?
Aussie, please mail some of that our way!
Member Since: July 8, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 32
1055. Orcasystems
3:55 PM GMT on July 06, 2010
96L, where is it, and where is it going... NFI?



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26512
1054. RJT185
3:55 PM GMT on July 06, 2010
Quoting Patrap:

Wake up in the morning feeling like 96L
(Hey, what up Invest?)
Put my glasses on, Im on the GFS - Im gonna hit this Run(Lets go)
Before I log on, brush my teeth with a bottle of Capri Sun
Cause when I post for the night, I aim to be Number one
Im talking - mjo on our, toes, Blows
Trying on all our GOES,GOES
Post's blowing up our phones, phones
Drop-toping, playing our favorite cds
Pulling up to the Blog-sies
Trying to get a little bit tipsy..


Nice. :)
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 252
1053. CaribbeanIslandStorm
3:55 PM GMT on July 06, 2010
Link
We are getting pummeled in Eastern Puerto Rico!
1052. tropicfreak
3:54 PM GMT on July 06, 2010
Quoting AussieStorm:

Opps..... sorry


No LOL thats ok.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
1051. AussieStorm
3:54 PM GMT on July 06, 2010
Quoting tropicfreak:


Don't torture me!!

Opps..... sorry
(reaches back and turns the heater up)
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
sick 'em Flood!!
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3488
1049. IKE
Looks like a northern Mexico track on the 12Z GFS for 96L at 54 hours....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Re: 1029

Take a zanny!
Thank youuuu! The blog is slow right now, a little small talk at this point and time isn't hurting anyone.
Member Since: July 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 626
Quoting AussieStorm:
Anyone feeling a bit hot. Come join me sitting outside of the freezer. LOL

Currently at Homebush, Sydney, Australia.

Temperature 51.3°F falling
Dew Point 44.2°F falling
Feels Like 51.3°F
Relative Humidity 77%
Wind
Wind Gusts -
Pressure -
Fire Danger -
Rain since 9am/last hr 0.2mm / -


Don't torture me!!
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
Nice image of 95L & 96L

Link
Member Since: September 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1074
Quoting sebastianflorida:
ALL THIS STUPID STUFF HAS GOT TO END! THIS IS A BLOG ABOUT WEATHER, TROPICAL WEATHER IN PARTICULAR! TIRED OF SEEING IDIOTIC CONVERSATIONS THAT ARE UNRELATED TO ANYTHING OF PURPOSE! PLEASE SAVE US FROM SKIMMING NONSENSE SUCH AS THIS! IF ANYONE DISAGREES, THEN YOU MUST BE THE CULPRIT. TAKE THE STUPID STUFF ELSEWHERE PLEASE!

this blog get off topic becuase people love drama and right now u are creating "DRAMA" so think twice now lets get back on topic before somone has a stroke
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1044. tkeith
1029.

Joe B. ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:


What's next you will tell me that there is no such thing as the Easter Bunny ?

Oh there is no Easter Bunny, what about the tooth fairy?
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
rgr 1029 fixed.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 639
Anyone feeling a bit hot. Come join me sitting outside of the freezer. LOL

Currently at Homebush, Sydney, Australia.

Temperature 51.3°F falling
Dew Point 44.2°F falling
Feels Like 51.3°F
Relative Humidity 77%
Wind
Wind Gusts -
Pressure -
Fire Danger -
Rain since 9am/last hr 0.2mm / -
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
Quoting HouGalv08:
Ummm.....I wouldn't give those idiots any ideas. So far they've demonstrated a profound lack of decency and disdain for the environment, and they just might find your idea agreeable, thus able to "shaft" more of the G.O.m, it's wildlife, and those that live along the shore.


How helpful....and idiotic
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Re: 1020

Take a zanny!

I think you mean 1029 *giggle*
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3488
Quoting IKE:
Do they proof read?


SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1030 AM CDT TUE JUL 06 2010

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD LOW PRES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 88W S OF 26N. THE LOW WILL MOVE NW TOE NEAR 23N92W
EARLY WED...27N94W EARLY THU...AND THEN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INLAND NE TEXAS THU NIGHT. THE COULD POSSIBLY DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD FROM THE E ALONG 28N THU
THROUGH SAT.

ok who gave the nhc coke agian
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Re: 1029

Take a zanny!
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 639
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Some don't think Elvis is dead either....I could go on...


What's next you will tell me that there is no such thing as the Easter Bunny ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1034. hydrus
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Some don't think Elvis is dead either....I could go on...
I read you. 95L should be classified as a T.D.jmo
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22223
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
That's hot, even for my standards. What is the humidity like in these area? Now they know how we feel on the Texas coast when it gets below 40 degrees! You would have thought we were in Alaska!


The humidity is different every time we go through a heat wave. But so far in the past 2 or so weeks, it has been dry and hot, meaning, no rain for 3 weeks. I wish I were you. If I could, I would of traveled down there for a break from the heat. This heat wave is weird, the further north you go(until NYC) the hotter it is. Yesterday we hit 100 by the way. the most 100 degree days in a year was 1954, which was 9. 2010 so far: 4, and likely to be 5 or 6 by the end of the week. No rain in the forecast.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
How about a visible of both 95 and 96 Pat?
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 639
Quoting Patrap:

wow! it blew up!
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3488
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Some don't think Elvis is dead either....I could go on...

LOL
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
It looks like there's a spin just north of Yucatan moving north IMO...Any comments?
Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 703
Quoting Patrap:


Does 96 look better with the convection and apparent banding?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hamla:
GIVE DA BOYS AN GURLS AT DA TPC AN DA NHC A BREAK YESTERDAY WAS DA HOLIDAY ALSO DA CORP.OF DA ENGINES WAS CLOSED IN NOLA FER DA HOLIDAY

They're a saftery net so no breaks for them
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1025. IKE
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
They could have drove through it, instead of flying! LOL


LOL!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1024. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129310
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
Well, the 3rd largest refinery in the nation (capacity wise) is located here in Texas City. Guess who? BP! Maybe they can just funnel the oil through the Galveston jetties and into the Texas City Ship Channel, right up to BP's docks and put the oil to good use. Might save on shipping costs!
Ummm.....I wouldn't give those idiots any ideas. So far they've demonstrated a profound lack of decency and disdain for the environment, and they just might find your idea agreeable, thus able to "shaft" more of the G.O.m, it's wildlife, and those that live along the shore.
Member Since: July 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 370
1022. hamla
GIVE DA BOYS AN GURLS AT DA TPC AN DA NHC A BREAK YESTERDAY WAS DA HOLIDAY ALSO DA CORP.OF DA ENGINES WAS CLOSED IN NOLA FER DA HOLIDAY
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1021. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129310
Quoting hydrus:
Some say the low was never closed off, so no T.D.



Some don't think Elvis is dead either....I could go on...
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 639

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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