Invest 95L Brushes Louisiana Coastline

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:42 AM GMT on July 06, 2010

Share this Blog
3
+

Hi all,

Dr. Rob Carver, filling in for Jeff this week.

Midnight CDT Update
The low known as Invest 95L stopped it's northward progression and is now moving west along the Louisiana coastline. This is the oddest mesoscale convective complex/tropical feature I've seen in awhile. It's still producing a lot of rain, 2+ inches inland and 6+ inches over the ocean.


Base reflectivity from Lake Charles, LA at 11PM July 5 showing a very nice comma head. Animated loop.


Invest 95L is making landfall now in southern Louisiana near Terrebonne Bay. A CMAN station in Terrebonne Bay is currently reporting winds from the SE at 21 mph and the pressure is 1009 mb. Looking at the radar data, Invest 95L never had convection around the center of circulation. Also, it was hard to see a distinct surface circulation in the different analyses available. I believe soaking rains for southern Lousisana are going to be Invest 95L's main legacy. It's already produced 5+ inches of rain in some offshore locations according to radar-derived rainfall estimates.


Fig. 1 Meteogram for TRBL1 in Terrebonne Bay, LA. Tabular data are here.


Fig. 2 Base reflectivity from New Orleans, LA at 706PM, July 5. Animated loop.

Invest 96L
430 AM Update
In sum, the 00Z model runs don't present a different picture. It is curious to note that the Canadian Global model does not intensify 96L at all in the 00Z run, while NOGAPS has shifted towards a SE Louisiana landfall. I think the following discussion is still valid.

96L is going to be an interesting feature to forecast. It's still on the edge of a strong wind shear gradient. 40+ knots of shear are on the NE side of 96L, and <10 knots are on the SW side. The "center" of 96L is under about 15 knots of shear. This is likely inhibiting 96L. Nearly all forecast models take 96L NW through the Yucatan peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico. Near the Yucatan itself, sea-surface temperatures are relatively cool, not the best environment for intensification. However, at 25N, 87W there is a hotspot of SST's, which would promote rapid intensification. However, there's currently 20 knots of shear over the hotspot, so the thunderstorms that do form as a result will be well ventilated, and not cause 96L to intensify.

The dynamical models have different takes on how 96L intensifies in the next 120 hours. The 18Z operational GFS strongly intensifies 96L over the hotspot and takes 96L towards Grand Isle, LA. The parallel (for testing model configuration changes) GFS has a similar track, but does not strengthen 96L as much. This indicates uncertainty on how the models are handling the upper-level winds.

The 18Z HWRF solution is much like the parallel GFS solution. The 12Z Canadian global model has a more westerly track, pushing 96L towards Port Arthur, but it strengthens 96L right before it makes landfall, not when it's over open water. NOGAPS takes the "a little from column A, a little from column B" approach, with a spinup over the hotspot (op. GFS solution), but a westerly landfall (the Canadian solution). More data to initialize the models from synoptic reconnaissance flights will help reduce uncertainty.

The bottom line, 96L will move into the Gulf of Mexico and is then shrouded by the mists of uncertainty. I also think that it's a possibility (>50%) that it will become a tropical cyclone sometime in the next 48-72 hours (leaning towards sometime in day 2-3 based on the model runs.)


Fig. 3 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 GFS model run.Parallel GFS version.


Fig. 4 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 HWRF model run.


Fig. 5 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 12Z July 5 CMC global model run.NOGAPS wind swath.

Next update
I'll probably tweak this blog later tonight as new model runs come in. I'll have a full update tomorrow afternoon (Pacific time).

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1120 - 1070

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43Blog Index

Quoting muddertracker:

Link
4/8 or 12 with this close-up

or 8/16/24 with this one:

Link

Enjoy!
I know you didnt sent this for my benefit but wow! those were awesome links. Thank you!

Mark
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1119. hydrus
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Notice the low off of North Pressolina.
Oh man. You could have said The Pressolina,s, He would post in disgust and then get banned..;0
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21244
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
1077, they took the net away at our work! Talk about withdrawals! Plus, I work 12 hour shifts, so when something is brewing in the tropics I can't get on here for 12 hours!

Began sneaking laptops in, and they found a way to stop that too!
Been reading this blog since 2007 on my cell phone. Give that a try unless your employer forbids cell phone use as well. ***Disclaimer: Any job disciplinary action including but not limited to verbal reprimand, written warnings, denied access to the snack machine, etc. you agree are held harmless to this blogger with regard to the aforementioned advice.***
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1116. Dakster
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
or the proper proportions of a rum and coke.




Two parts rum 1 part coke. A coupla those'll bring out the captain in ya!


Hmmm... No wonder, I always did it the other way around.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
OOoooooo...... I ain't neva been a "denizen" befo!
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 564
So what do you think the NHC will do to 96L? Raise the percentage???
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6877
Also to add to that I always thought the NHC would not issue advisories on a system if they felt it would only last 6 hours

atcf had it as a TD for only 1 single advisory, thought there was some sort of criteria as to how long a system had to hold those characteristics to officially be classified
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1111. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
PWS alarm going off we just surpass 90.3 degrees heat index of 106.1 still got hottest part of the day to come between 3 and 4 pm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1110. hydrus
Quoting AussieStorm:

I am not complaining,,, i'm just stating a fact...I HATE WINTER... lol
I understand. I worked on the Great Lakes for a while. They have brutal winter weather.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21244
wouldn't you say the Gulf waters have been churned up enough by Alex to impede any quick development of 96L ?
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3488
1108. msphar
Good Morning Denizens of the blog. Its a beautiful morning in Western Nevada where we don't have hurricanes as such. I am glad to see the MDR looking rather benign this morning as I plan to begin my migration out to the northeastern reaches of the Caribbean pretty soon. Only 9 and a half more weeks to the climatological peak of the season, what will that bring ? An idle question of no import to be sure. Que sera sera. Time for a breakfast respite.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1107. centex
I don't think anyone wants to predict 96L. It will not have much time and has lots of work to do once it gets in Gulf so probly not more than TS possible. Tomorrow will the interesting day to see if develops slowly or quickly, the best guess is slowly. NWS worried of flooding due to prior rains.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
1077, they took the net away at our work! Talk about withdrawals! Plus, I work 12 hour shifts, so when something is brewing in the tropics I can't get on here for 12 hours!

Began sneaking laptops in, and they found a way to stop that too!
Oh, the NERVE of some employers! Sounds like you NEED an IPhone to get around "blackout" at work. Surf the net and use the telephone at the same time!
Member Since: July 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 359
1105. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
Quoting HoustonTxGal:


I hear ya! I am in Houston and when it gets down to 90 I need a sweater! LOL
Yup. Central Texas had 30+ days of 100 degree heat last summer! But we all have AC...some up east don't.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1103. angiest
Quoting TBird78:
I feel sorry for the folks in the NE with their heatwave. But here in Southeast Texas...it's nothing unusual...90 degrees feels like a cold front!


Have they learned about air conditioning up there yet?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I don't think 95L ever deserved to be classified, even when the atcf site showed it as a TD, it was only for 1 advisory; also at that time the convection with the system was weak

I just don't buy it, the only busted part of their forecast to me was when they went up to 60% development. They had a fine forecast for 95L up until then
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
JB's blog

The situation in the Gulf is very complex as the mid- and upper-level couplet is well south of the surface surge of wind. This means that while the surface surge heads off into the northwest Gulf and raises a ruckus with the weather there (the gfs has this nicely this time! Please note I am saying it's right!). If this is going to develop, it will have to develop Thursday, and farther south, probably south of the Texas and Mexico border's latitude, from the mid-level system working its way down and feeding back. Brett in 2005 pulled this before going into Mexico.

The upper Texas and Louisiana coastal waters will have some fun and games from the low- to mid-level surge, but this is not showing any signs of linking the low and mid levels at this time.

Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 703
1100. hydrus
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
or the proper proportions of a rum and coke.

Two parts rum 1 part coke.
Dang It Doug.....
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21244
1099. SQUAWK
Quoting AussieStorm:

I am a paid member, I choked up $12.


Price went up eh? Mine gives me up to 40 frames. Or even a 24 hour loop. Should be at the bottom of the RADAR screen display on a drop down pick menu.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TBird78:
I feel sorry for the folks in the NE with their heatwave. But here in Southeast Texas...it's nothing unusual...90 degrees feels like a cold front!


I hear ya! I am in Houston and when it gets down to 90 I need a sweater! LOL
Member Since: September 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1074
Quoting USSINS:




Boys, boys - take the yellow down from 95L, already ok! It's well inland now. That yellow after-the-fact won't soften a busted forecast.


96L looking lot better today....kinda surprised they still have it at 30%.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1096. Patrap
Folks in the Ne arent acclimated to the excessive heat so check on your neighbors,the elderly and others who may be in distress today.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
1095. hydrus
Quoting LightningCharmer:
1029 I don't understand the outrage. There were glaring typographical errors in an official statement from weather authorities. The weather statement's lack of obvious proof reading led to the discussion with which you objected. It's not like the blog was debating illegal immigration, the Peloponnesian war or the proper proportions of a rum and coke.
They can WU Mail me L.C. for the correct rum to coke ratio.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21244
or the proper proportions of a rum and coke.




Two parts rum 1 part coke. A coupla those'll bring out the captain in ya!
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 564
New update on temps in VA: Already 100 in Farmville, fredricksburg, DC, upper 90s in Richmond(98,99)Still lower 90s in the tidewater area (Norfolk, VA Beach, Hampton, Newport News) and same goes for the Blue Ridge and the Appalachian Highlands.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6877
1092. TBird78
I feel sorry for the folks in the NE with their heatwave. But here in Southeast Texas...it's nothing unusual...90 degrees feels like a cold front!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1091. USSINS




Boys, boys - take the yellow down from 95L, already ok! It's well inland now. That yellow after-the-fact won't soften a busted forecast.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HouGalv08:
Yep, and then some of them(as in me) surf while at work .
1077, they took the net away at our work! Talk about withdrawals! Plus, I work 12 hour shifts, so when something is brewing in the tropics I can't get on here for 12 hours!

Began sneaking laptops in, and they found a way to stop that too!
Member Since: July 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 626
Quoting SQUAWK:


You have to be a paid member. Choke up the $10 my friend. LOL

I am a paid member, I choked up $12.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Quoting LightningCharmer:
1029 I don't understand the outrage. There were glaring typographical errors in an official statement from weather authorities. The weather statement's lack of obvious proof reading led to the discussion with which you objected. It's not like the blog was debating illegal immigration, the Peloponnesian war or the proper proportions of a rum and coke.

Oh don't EVEN get me started on the rum and coke issue!!! lol
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3488
Quoting IKE:
Parallel GFS 12Z @ 48hrs...northern Mexico on 96L....



Notice the low off of North Pressolina.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1086. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 12:00 PM EDT Tuesday 6 July 2010
Condition: Mostly Cloudy
Pressure: 30.04 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 5

Temperature: 89.1F
Dewpoint: 71.4F
Humidity: 56 %
Wind: W 9 mph
Humidex: 106
PWS STATIO
TEMP 89.1F
HUMIDEX 105.6F
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
Aussie, are you complaining at 51.3F?..Wait until Levi 32 reads that.....lol

I am not complaining,,, i'm just stating a fact...I HATE WINTER... lol
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
1084. SQUAWK
Quoting AussieStorm:
How do I get to view a full length loop on radars. all i get is 6 frames.


You have to be a paid member. Choke up the $10 my friend. LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It appears there is some cyclonic turning with the wave approaching 40 W. Meanwhile, 96L holding its own and still looking relatively good.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1029 I don't understand the outrage. There were glaring typographical errors in an official statement from weather authorities. The weather statement's lack of obvious proof reading led to the discussion with which you objected. It's not like the blog was debating illegal immigration, the Peloponnesian war or the proper proportions of a rum and coke.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1080. Dakster
Quoting AussieStorm:
Anyone feeling a bit hot. Come join me sitting outside of the freezer. LOL

Currently at Homebush, Sydney, Australia.

Temperature 51.3°F falling
Dew Point 44.2°F falling
Feels Like 51.3°F
Relative Humidity 77%
Wind
Wind Gusts -
Pressure -
Fire Danger -
Rain since 9am/last hr 0.2mm / -


Just rub it in why don't you...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Pretty much the heat NOAA forecast last week.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
Parallel GFS 12Z @ 48hrs...northern Mexico on 96L....



I just casn't believe it would go to mexico...I'm not wishing the storm to go to anyone,but come on Mexico just got hit.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
1062, some people do have jobs! The nerve of them! LOL
Yep, and then some of them(as in me) surf while at work .
Member Since: July 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 359
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


That's absolutely insane for you guys! Here in Macon, GA we're only at 86 degrees, with a high of 93 today, however the heat wave up in the northeast will shift to the southeast later in the week where it will be our turn in Macon to endure the 100+ temperatures. But we're used to that. I don't think the NE is. Stay well hydrated!


We are used to it here as well. Seen enough 100+ degrees here. At least you've seen some rain lately, we have been hot and dry, and no rain to speak of. My lawn looks almost like a desert.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6877
1075. IKE
Parallel GFS 12Z @ 48hrs...northern Mexico on 96L....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1074. hydrus
Quoting AussieStorm:
Anyone feeling a bit hot. Come join me sitting outside of the freezer. LOL

Currently at Homebush, Sydney, Australia.

Temperature 51.3F falling
Dew Point 44.2F falling
Feels Like 51.3F
Relative Humidity 77%
Wind
Wind Gusts -
Pressure -
Fire Danger -
Rain since 9am/last hr 0.2mm / -
Aussie, are you complaining at 51.3F?..Wait until Levi 32 reads that.....lol
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21244
Quoting AussieStorm:
How do I get to view a full length loop on radars. all i get is 6 frames.

Link
4/8 or 12 with this close-up

or 8/16/24 with this one:

Link

Enjoy!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hi everyone, 96L looking pretty good today. I see models are kinda shifting again.....who knows where this thing is going to go.....Anyone know? :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tropicfreak:
WOW! Look at these temps! Already in the mid to upper 90s in Richmond, DC, Baltimore. Its not even noon yet, and by the looks of that, its not going to be pretty this afternoon, up into the triple digits, heard richmond(where I live) will have highs around 101 this afternoon.



That's absolutely insane for you guys! Here in Macon, GA we're only at 86 degrees, with a high of 93 today, however the heat wave up in the northeast will shift to the southeast later in the week where it will be our turn in Macon to endure the 100+ temperatures. But we're used to that. I don't think the NE is. Stay well hydrated!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NHC model runs for 96L


Link
Member Since: September 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1074

Viewing: 1120 - 1070

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Mostly Cloudy
72 °F
Mostly Cloudy