Invest 95L Brushes Louisiana Coastline

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:42 AM GMT on July 06, 2010

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Hi all,

Dr. Rob Carver, filling in for Jeff this week.

Midnight CDT Update
The low known as Invest 95L stopped it's northward progression and is now moving west along the Louisiana coastline. This is the oddest mesoscale convective complex/tropical feature I've seen in awhile. It's still producing a lot of rain, 2+ inches inland and 6+ inches over the ocean.


Base reflectivity from Lake Charles, LA at 11PM July 5 showing a very nice comma head. Animated loop.


Invest 95L is making landfall now in southern Louisiana near Terrebonne Bay. A CMAN station in Terrebonne Bay is currently reporting winds from the SE at 21 mph and the pressure is 1009 mb. Looking at the radar data, Invest 95L never had convection around the center of circulation. Also, it was hard to see a distinct surface circulation in the different analyses available. I believe soaking rains for southern Lousisana are going to be Invest 95L's main legacy. It's already produced 5+ inches of rain in some offshore locations according to radar-derived rainfall estimates.


Fig. 1 Meteogram for TRBL1 in Terrebonne Bay, LA. Tabular data are here.


Fig. 2 Base reflectivity from New Orleans, LA at 706PM, July 5. Animated loop.

Invest 96L
430 AM Update
In sum, the 00Z model runs don't present a different picture. It is curious to note that the Canadian Global model does not intensify 96L at all in the 00Z run, while NOGAPS has shifted towards a SE Louisiana landfall. I think the following discussion is still valid.

96L is going to be an interesting feature to forecast. It's still on the edge of a strong wind shear gradient. 40+ knots of shear are on the NE side of 96L, and <10 knots are on the SW side. The "center" of 96L is under about 15 knots of shear. This is likely inhibiting 96L. Nearly all forecast models take 96L NW through the Yucatan peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico. Near the Yucatan itself, sea-surface temperatures are relatively cool, not the best environment for intensification. However, at 25N, 87W there is a hotspot of SST's, which would promote rapid intensification. However, there's currently 20 knots of shear over the hotspot, so the thunderstorms that do form as a result will be well ventilated, and not cause 96L to intensify.

The dynamical models have different takes on how 96L intensifies in the next 120 hours. The 18Z operational GFS strongly intensifies 96L over the hotspot and takes 96L towards Grand Isle, LA. The parallel (for testing model configuration changes) GFS has a similar track, but does not strengthen 96L as much. This indicates uncertainty on how the models are handling the upper-level winds.

The 18Z HWRF solution is much like the parallel GFS solution. The 12Z Canadian global model has a more westerly track, pushing 96L towards Port Arthur, but it strengthens 96L right before it makes landfall, not when it's over open water. NOGAPS takes the "a little from column A, a little from column B" approach, with a spinup over the hotspot (op. GFS solution), but a westerly landfall (the Canadian solution). More data to initialize the models from synoptic reconnaissance flights will help reduce uncertainty.

The bottom line, 96L will move into the Gulf of Mexico and is then shrouded by the mists of uncertainty. I also think that it's a possibility (>50%) that it will become a tropical cyclone sometime in the next 48-72 hours (leaning towards sometime in day 2-3 based on the model runs.)


Fig. 3 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 GFS model run.Parallel GFS version.


Fig. 4 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 HWRF model run.


Fig. 5 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 12Z July 5 CMC global model run.NOGAPS wind swath.

Next update
I'll probably tweak this blog later tonight as new model runs come in. I'll have a full update tomorrow afternoon (Pacific time).

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1165, Thanks, I knew I could count on you.
Member Since: July 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 626
MJO upward trend arrives at end of this week..correct?
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Quoting Patrap:
How do I create a Wunderblog ?

Look to the right of this page in the Links section for other relevant blog stuff
Member Since: July 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 626
Quoting Patrap:
When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the "!" button and ignored.

During active periods of hurricane season, these rules will be strictly enforced. Violations will be met with a minimum 24 hour ban.

You mean like plugging the Dr. Phil show Pat? Sorry, couldn't resist...
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Quoting rossclick:


yeah.. i guess he did have his battles lol


Mark Twain said "In religion and politics, people's beliefs and convictions are in almost every case gotten at second hand, and without examination."

A great deal of truth in that statement...makes the knock-down drag-out fights in here in the last couple of months seem pretty foolish...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
1165. Patrap
How do I create a Wunderblog ?

Look to the right of this page in the Links section for other relevant blog stuff.

* About Dr. Jeff Masters
* Flying into Hurricane Hugo
* Support hurricane relief to underserved communities
* How to start your own blog, and add blog images and links
* Description of computer models
* Buy Weather Underground shirts and mugs
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127559
I know it is to early to tell with any any pinpoint accuracy, BUT... if we were laying odds, where would everyone say 96L is going and how strong will she become?
Member Since: September 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1073
1163. Patrap
Presslord is still here.

Under the portlight "generic" handle.

He stays Busy with that and other.

I speak to Him daily as others do.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127559
Quoting rossclick:


they mix like oil and water.. too many opinionated people and too many hot topics


Those stinking liberal huricanes, all they do is blow, blow, blow, rain, rain, rain and waste the atmospheric energy budget.....
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
I miss Press...and his dress...lol..Press, if you are out there, please come home!
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Quoting Patrap:
One can do a personal blog on anything here..thats why they exist.

But I'm a computer illiterate! Not savvy like you.
Member Since: July 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 626
1159. angiest
Quoting cirrocumulus:
96L looks like the first storm to form over the Yucatan. lol


Hurricane Agnes of 1972 did it.
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1158. Patrap
When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the "!" button and ignored.

During active periods of hurricane season, these rules will be strictly enforced. Violations will be met with a minimum 24 hour ban.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127559
1157. Patrap
One can do a personal blog on anything here..thats why they exist.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127559
Quoting rossclick:


they mix like oil and water.. too many opinionated people and too many hot topics
True, but that's why I'm suggesting a separate blog. This way, this blog can concentrate on the weather, and of course entertainment as well! LOL
Member Since: July 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 626
1155. hydrus
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


As it currently stands the next storm would be designated AL02.
According to the GEM, there is a pattern change over the U.S. and a pretty big low moving into the Caribbean within the next 4 to 6 days....Link
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Quoting AllBoardedUp:
Has anyone on here who has access to Dr. Masters ever suggest a separate blog for political and social issues as related to the weather. Sometimes, politics and weather do mix! Of course, Dr. Masters probably has enough irons in the fire already.


they mix like oil and water.. too many opinionated people and too many hot topics
Member Since: May 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 111
Dovark image and NHC coordinates do not match up, imho...but, wth do I know? I thought they were off with Alex, too...and I was wrong. *sigh* Vorticity is still highest n. of the system, (link..click on vorticity) but 1km visual and Dovark "seem" to say vorticity is strongest in the s. part of the system. Bollocks!

Link
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We will soon have 97L and maybe 98L sometimes between this weekend and next weekend
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11030
Quoting rossclick:


yeah.. i guess he did have his battles lol
Has anyone on here who has access to Dr. Masters ever suggest a separate blog for political and social issues as related to the weather. Sometimes, politics and weather do mix! Of course, Dr. Masters probably has enough irons in the fire already.
Member Since: July 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 626
Quoting Patrap:


The spin is good but how will she do without central thunderstorm complex over Yucatan...then again with alex we saw a tight spin form in a day as he approached shore...But I do love the pretty colors....
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Quoting AkuAnakTimur:
Let's say 96L managed to develop into at least a TD. From what we saw what happened yesterday... would it still be called TD2?


As it currently stands the next storm would be designated AL02.
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hey can someone give me an idea why they are saying south tex-mexico landfall just wondering if some of you are still saying se texas landfall? and if south texas landfall why the big change???
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1147. hydrus
Quoting rossclick:


whatever happened to him anyways?
Yes. Just like Floodman said.
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Quoting Patrap:
96L Dvorak Image

1602 UTC



pretty... that must be over the hot spot now...
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Quoting Floodman:


He got tired of people being unable to post anything here without it becoming a political discussion. He left in disgust a couple of months ago
Quoting Floodman:


He got tired of people being unable to post anything here without it becoming a political discussion. He left in disgust a couple of months ago


yeah.. i guess he did have his battles lol
Member Since: May 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 111
Quoting HouGalv08:
IPad worth investigating, but a smaller, less obtrusive device would of course be a smart phone. See what Comcast can direct you towards and link with thier service. Well, gotta go. Got an airplane coming in that I need to investigate and fix.
Hey, if you are working on airplanes YOU don't need to be on the net!!! lol
Member Since: July 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 626
96L looks like the first storm to form over the Yucatan. lol
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Let's say 96L managed to develop into at least a TD. From what we saw what happened yesterday... would it still be called TD2?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting helove2trac:
nobody wants to talk about 97L i will be glad when the tropics start heating up come august and septemember i am ready


From my understanding conditions are just not very favorable right now and may not be. So who in the heck knows.....Could go anywhere from Mexico to the middle of TX coast but most likely as a rainmaker.....again, to my understanding.
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1140. Patrap
96L Dvorak Image

1602 UTC

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127559
Quoting rossclick:


whatever happened to him anyways?


He got tired of people being unable to post anything here without it becoming a political discussion. He left in disgust a couple of months ago
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
1138. Patrap
Currently Active Tropical Cyclones
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127559
1137. NRAamy
SQUAWK!!!!!
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Quoting Patrap:


They have their featured Blogs,you can find them in the directory


ok, thanks.
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1135. centex
Quoting tropicfreak:
So what do you think the NHC will do to 96L? Raise the percentage???
I don't think they will raise it until closer to getting into Gulf so it has time to develop in 48 hour window.
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Oh i am sorry i meant 96L see how confused i am
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Quoting AllBoardedUp:
What about an Ipad? Any inexpensive internet providers out there? I have Comcast cable and don't want to give that up!
IPad worth investigating, but a smaller, less obtrusive device would of course be a smart phone. See what Comcast can direct you towards and link with thier service. Well, gotta go. Got an airplane coming in that I need to investigate and fix.
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Quoting helove2trac:
nobody wants to talk about 97L i will be glad when the tropics start heating up come august and septemember i am ready


there is no 97L
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Quoting hydrus:
Oh man. You could have said The Pressolina,s, He would post in disgust and then get banned..;0


whatever happened to him anyways?
Member Since: May 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 111
nobody wants to talk about 97L i will be glad when the tropics start heating up come august and septemember i am ready
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Quoting TexasHurricane:
StormW or Levi here? What are your thoughts on 96L??


They are sleeping it off after taking Pensacola Doug's Rum and Coke advice...morning all..!
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:
I know you didnt sent this for my benefit but wow! those were awesome links. Thank you!

Mark
Yeah, they are both great. You can spend a lot of time looking at these two.
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1127. Patrap
Quoting TexasHurricane:
StormW or Levi here? What are your thoughts on 96L??


They have their featured Blogs,you can find them in the directory
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127559

GFS FIRST CAPE VERDE STORM
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1125. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127559
StormW or Levi here? What are your thoughts on 96L??
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1123. msphar
A first time for everything, think of yourself as post-virgin denizen now.
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What about an Ipad? Any inexpensive internet providers out there? I have Comcast cable and don't want to give that up!
Member Since: July 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 626
Quoting SQUAWK:


Price went up eh? Mine gives me up to 40 frames. Or even a 24 hour loop. Should be at the bottom of the RADAR screen display on a drop down pick menu.

exchange rate.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
Quoting muddertracker:

Link
4/8 or 12 with this close-up

or 8/16/24 with this one:

Link

Enjoy!
I know you didnt sent this for my benefit but wow! those were awesome links. Thank you!

Mark
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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