Invest 95L Brushes Louisiana Coastline

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:42 AM GMT on July 06, 2010

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Hi all,

Dr. Rob Carver, filling in for Jeff this week.

Midnight CDT Update
The low known as Invest 95L stopped it's northward progression and is now moving west along the Louisiana coastline. This is the oddest mesoscale convective complex/tropical feature I've seen in awhile. It's still producing a lot of rain, 2+ inches inland and 6+ inches over the ocean.


Base reflectivity from Lake Charles, LA at 11PM July 5 showing a very nice comma head. Animated loop.


Invest 95L is making landfall now in southern Louisiana near Terrebonne Bay. A CMAN station in Terrebonne Bay is currently reporting winds from the SE at 21 mph and the pressure is 1009 mb. Looking at the radar data, Invest 95L never had convection around the center of circulation. Also, it was hard to see a distinct surface circulation in the different analyses available. I believe soaking rains for southern Lousisana are going to be Invest 95L's main legacy. It's already produced 5+ inches of rain in some offshore locations according to radar-derived rainfall estimates.


Fig. 1 Meteogram for TRBL1 in Terrebonne Bay, LA. Tabular data are here.


Fig. 2 Base reflectivity from New Orleans, LA at 706PM, July 5. Animated loop.

Invest 96L
430 AM Update
In sum, the 00Z model runs don't present a different picture. It is curious to note that the Canadian Global model does not intensify 96L at all in the 00Z run, while NOGAPS has shifted towards a SE Louisiana landfall. I think the following discussion is still valid.

96L is going to be an interesting feature to forecast. It's still on the edge of a strong wind shear gradient. 40+ knots of shear are on the NE side of 96L, and <10 knots are on the SW side. The "center" of 96L is under about 15 knots of shear. This is likely inhibiting 96L. Nearly all forecast models take 96L NW through the Yucatan peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico. Near the Yucatan itself, sea-surface temperatures are relatively cool, not the best environment for intensification. However, at 25N, 87W there is a hotspot of SST's, which would promote rapid intensification. However, there's currently 20 knots of shear over the hotspot, so the thunderstorms that do form as a result will be well ventilated, and not cause 96L to intensify.

The dynamical models have different takes on how 96L intensifies in the next 120 hours. The 18Z operational GFS strongly intensifies 96L over the hotspot and takes 96L towards Grand Isle, LA. The parallel (for testing model configuration changes) GFS has a similar track, but does not strengthen 96L as much. This indicates uncertainty on how the models are handling the upper-level winds.

The 18Z HWRF solution is much like the parallel GFS solution. The 12Z Canadian global model has a more westerly track, pushing 96L towards Port Arthur, but it strengthens 96L right before it makes landfall, not when it's over open water. NOGAPS takes the "a little from column A, a little from column B" approach, with a spinup over the hotspot (op. GFS solution), but a westerly landfall (the Canadian solution). More data to initialize the models from synoptic reconnaissance flights will help reduce uncertainty.

The bottom line, 96L will move into the Gulf of Mexico and is then shrouded by the mists of uncertainty. I also think that it's a possibility (>50%) that it will become a tropical cyclone sometime in the next 48-72 hours (leaning towards sometime in day 2-3 based on the model runs.)


Fig. 3 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 GFS model run.Parallel GFS version.


Fig. 4 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 HWRF model run.


Fig. 5 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 12Z July 5 CMC global model run.NOGAPS wind swath.

Next update
I'll probably tweak this blog later tonight as new model runs come in. I'll have a full update tomorrow afternoon (Pacific time).

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Quoting Dakster:
Nah Muddertracker, you should be involved. The more the merrier.

Waiting on this 8pm report and model runs!
Me, too. I'm curious about what 96 has in store...some surprises, maybe?
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Quoting Levi32:


That's the end of the run, to the disappointment of many...lol.




how sad
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
2068. Patrap
Yup..and the 13 other eyewall's and specifics to them.

Let alone the TS's and other Vortexes to boot.

Plttttttttttttt...............

Im lost as to Snowflakes I must admit.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129424
so that P-3 is checking out 96L's MLC hmm odd
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Levi, what are the chances of this non-tropical low to acquire subtropical characteristics??

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2065. Levi32
Quoting Tazmanian:



where dos the rest of the run take it?


That's the end of the run, to the disappointment of many...lol.
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2063. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Patrap:


Levi is a Tropical Expert and has seen a Lot of T-storms I hear.

2 to be exact.

0 Hurricanes


Pffftt
don't forget the 900 million snowflakes just ribbing levi don't take it to heart
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55543
2062. Levi32
The Cape Verde development on the long-range GFS ties right in with my post from earlier. This pattern is very favorable for this to happen.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The pattern that could be setting up later this month is pretty concerning. The GFS has been consistently showing upper ridging becoming very dominant across the entire tropical Atlantic in the long-range, with a straight shot of upper easterlies across the entire MDR south of 20N.

Below is the GFS Parallel 200mb forecast out at Day 15, July 22nd. This is amazing to see. The upper easterlies all the way up to 20N reduce wind shear because they are moving in the same direction as the surface trade winds, and as long as they do not become too strong, they are generally favorable for tropical development and don't shear storms.

The ridging up that far north opens the door for Cape Verde storms to develop and take tracks either through the Caribbean or north of the Caribbean without getting sheared, as the TUTT is forced off to the northeast and is weaker than normal, something we will see a lot of this season. This is a nasty pattern being shown by the GFS. For the record, the original GFS has been showing much of the same thing as well, and consistently.

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Quoting Levi32:


I'm saying that they are finding evidence of the broad mid-level circulation around the Yucatan Peninsula, and hopefully further investigation by the recon plane will give us some more info on what the structure is like.


Spoken like an expert, been on that bandwagon for two days.....by the way, what's up Levi?
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2060. Dakster
Nah Muddertracker, you should be involved. The more the merrier.

Waiting on this 8pm report and model runs!
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10631
Quoting Levi32:
I'm not surprised by this on the long-range GFS at all. It has been showing a ridiculously favorable pattern for Cape Verde development in the 2nd half of July.




where dos the rest of the run take it?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
How likely is that blow-up of convection (is that the right name?) in the mid-gulf to develope into something and will it affect Mississippi?
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2057. Levi32
Quoting Patrap:


Levi is a Tropical Expert and has seen a Lot of T-storms I hear.

2 to be exact.

0 Hurricanes


Pffftt


Lol. So I guess living through Betsy and Katrina helped you forecast hurricanes better? :P
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Quoting mahep1911:
2048 sorry slip of the fingers on here. Look to be a very busy season.



yup


hey all what do other mode runs show
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
As of late, those big waves coming off of Africa fizzle like an Alka-Seltzer once they hit water.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11513
can some one tell me if se texas needs to be watching 96L? i have to drive to dallas friday and dont want to be stuck in that crap...to no ahead of time would be great...thanks!
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2053. Levi32
I'm not surprised by this on the long-range GFS at all. It has been showing a ridiculously favorable pattern for Cape Verde development in the 2nd half of July.

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2048 sorry slip of the fingers on here. Look to be a very busy season.
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Handle: muddertracker
Status: No-Ads Paid Membership
Expiration: 2011-06-02 17:23:33
Signed Up: 2007-08-16 19:15:42

652 posts to date! I lurked forever...maybe I should still be lurking...

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Quoting Dakster:
Finally found the rest under My Settings...

Here ya go:

Handle: Dakster
Status: Free Membership
Expiration:
Signed Up: 2006-03-10 17:13:03

You beat me there. Lol.

Signed Up: 2009-09-01 22:23:51

Back to the tropics...
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
2049. Levi32
Quoting StormSurgeon:


So what are you saying Levi, 96L a puss?


I'm saying that they are finding evidence of the broad mid-level circulation around the Yucatan Peninsula, and hopefully further investigation by the recon plane will give us some more info on what the structure is like.
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Quoting mahep1911:
Good evening all

Hope every one is doping good and is safe with all the rain out there.


I'm doing pretty good, only doping on Mr. Beam though.......LOL
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2047. Dakster
Finally found the rest under My Settings...

Here ya go:

Handle: Dakster
Status: Free Membership
Expiration:
Signed Up: 2006-03-10 17:13:03

Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10631
Found the top part finally!
3114 comments and 44 entries posted by all members in the last 24 hours.

You have posted 0 entries in your own blog.

You have posted 7 comments in all blogs.
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2045. JLPR2
Quoting THUNDERPR:


whoops, no, the same one, eh.. I thought I had a link to the other one XD
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Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:
watch my video



will you stop posting that
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Handle: GeoffreyWPB
Status: No-Ads Paid Membership
Expiration: 2011-04-22 19:59:20
Signed Up: 2007-09-10 18:04:40
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11513
watch my video
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2041. Patrap
SSscale numbers are the last thing to Quantify a Hurricane Impact.

Thats always done with the Human eye.

Not many Cat 3's create a 30 ft Surge at Landfall.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129424
Good evening all

Hope every one is doping good and is safe with all the rain out there.
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Quoting Patrap:


Levi is a Tropical Expert and has seen a Lot of T-storms I hear.

2 to be exact.

0 Hurricanes


Pffftt


hush...pfffft
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Actually, where do you get the bottom information?

go to ur settings its there
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2037. Dakster
Here is what I got, I can't find my join date either...

Community Participation:

3105 comments and 43 entries posted by all members in the last 24 hours.

You have posted 0 entries in your own blog.

You have posted 2520 comments in all blogs.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10631
2036. Grothar
My only contribution for the day. Hope everyone is well.

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2035. Patrap
Quoting txalwaysprepared:


I kind of agree with you. Like Ike... came in at 950... but "only" a Cat 2. Much worse than a "typical" Cat 2.


Levi is a Tropical Expert and has seen a Lot of T-storms I hear.

2 to be exact.

0 Hurricanes


Pffftt
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129424
Quoting Dakster:


Where do you get all of the info? I haven't created or posted my own blog so that part is empty...

Same here...
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2033. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting muddertracker:
I see where to get the bottom info..but where did you go to get the top info?
go to blog display page look to your right and down to Community Participation just under featured bloggers list
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2032. JLPR2
Quoting THUNDERPR:


whoa, wait a second, I'm finally going to start my classes tomorrow that cant come here LOL! :P
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ya but half of those comments you were talking to yourself



would t you do the same if you did have any thing better too do?>
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Quoting muddertracker:
I see where to get the bottom info..but where did you go to get the top info?

in the blog directory just scroll down a bit its on the lower right hand side when u scroll
Member Since: July 13, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 10796
Quoting muddertracker:
I see where to get the bottom info..but where did you go to get the top info?
Actually, where do you get the bottom information?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
2028. USSINS
Quoting CosmicEvents:
I always thought that the size of the circle was directly related to the broadness of the circulation and/or inability to determine a clear LLC.



Apparently, everything is being "r e v i s e d" these days, but not surprising though, everything else is upside down, too. ;) New age, new ways. That's ok. Times change.

We've got TD's that aren't TD's. We've got no TD's when there should be. We've got monsoonal and typhoonal, maximas and moisture gyre's. And, a few more. LOL.

It's weather, and it hadn't changed all that much. It's just some years are more severe than others.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ya but half of those comments you were talking to yourself



lol lol lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437

look at my video..i am showing you the wave at 40 west..
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2024. Dakster
Quoting muddertracker:
I see where to get the bottom info..but where did you go to get the top info?


Where do you get all of the info? I haven't created or posted my own blog so that part is empty...
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10631
Quoting muddertracker:
I see where to get the bottom info..but where did you go to get the top info?



look where it say fatured Blogs

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Little change to our 4 areas of...
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then you see this

Search The Blogs:


then you see this

Community Participation:

3083 comments and 43 entries posted by all members in the last 24 hours.

You have posted 5074 entries in your own blog.

You have posted 44826 comments in all blogs.


i hop this helps
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
The current aircraft going to check out 96L isn't to see if there is a surface circulation or anything to that effect.
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2021. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Tazmanian:




thats nic i be out 50,000 commets this year
ya but half of those comments you were talking to yourself
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55543
Quoting Levi32:
Non-tasked recon mission at the 650mb (12000ft) level is checking out 96L. There is a wind shift from SE to NE around the NW Yucatan Peninsula. Keep in mind these are winds at 650mb...not surface winds. Extrapolated surface pressures are also iffy at this altitude.



So what are you saying Levi, 96L a puss?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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