Invest 95L Brushes Louisiana Coastline

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:42 AM GMT on July 06, 2010

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Hi all,

Dr. Rob Carver, filling in for Jeff this week.

Midnight CDT Update
The low known as Invest 95L stopped it's northward progression and is now moving west along the Louisiana coastline. This is the oddest mesoscale convective complex/tropical feature I've seen in awhile. It's still producing a lot of rain, 2+ inches inland and 6+ inches over the ocean.


Base reflectivity from Lake Charles, LA at 11PM July 5 showing a very nice comma head. Animated loop.


Invest 95L is making landfall now in southern Louisiana near Terrebonne Bay. A CMAN station in Terrebonne Bay is currently reporting winds from the SE at 21 mph and the pressure is 1009 mb. Looking at the radar data, Invest 95L never had convection around the center of circulation. Also, it was hard to see a distinct surface circulation in the different analyses available. I believe soaking rains for southern Lousisana are going to be Invest 95L's main legacy. It's already produced 5+ inches of rain in some offshore locations according to radar-derived rainfall estimates.


Fig. 1 Meteogram for TRBL1 in Terrebonne Bay, LA. Tabular data are here.


Fig. 2 Base reflectivity from New Orleans, LA at 706PM, July 5. Animated loop.

Invest 96L
430 AM Update
In sum, the 00Z model runs don't present a different picture. It is curious to note that the Canadian Global model does not intensify 96L at all in the 00Z run, while NOGAPS has shifted towards a SE Louisiana landfall. I think the following discussion is still valid.

96L is going to be an interesting feature to forecast. It's still on the edge of a strong wind shear gradient. 40+ knots of shear are on the NE side of 96L, and <10 knots are on the SW side. The "center" of 96L is under about 15 knots of shear. This is likely inhibiting 96L. Nearly all forecast models take 96L NW through the Yucatan peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico. Near the Yucatan itself, sea-surface temperatures are relatively cool, not the best environment for intensification. However, at 25N, 87W there is a hotspot of SST's, which would promote rapid intensification. However, there's currently 20 knots of shear over the hotspot, so the thunderstorms that do form as a result will be well ventilated, and not cause 96L to intensify.

The dynamical models have different takes on how 96L intensifies in the next 120 hours. The 18Z operational GFS strongly intensifies 96L over the hotspot and takes 96L towards Grand Isle, LA. The parallel (for testing model configuration changes) GFS has a similar track, but does not strengthen 96L as much. This indicates uncertainty on how the models are handling the upper-level winds.

The 18Z HWRF solution is much like the parallel GFS solution. The 12Z Canadian global model has a more westerly track, pushing 96L towards Port Arthur, but it strengthens 96L right before it makes landfall, not when it's over open water. NOGAPS takes the "a little from column A, a little from column B" approach, with a spinup over the hotspot (op. GFS solution), but a westerly landfall (the Canadian solution). More data to initialize the models from synoptic reconnaissance flights will help reduce uncertainty.

The bottom line, 96L will move into the Gulf of Mexico and is then shrouded by the mists of uncertainty. I also think that it's a possibility (>50%) that it will become a tropical cyclone sometime in the next 48-72 hours (leaning towards sometime in day 2-3 based on the model runs.)


Fig. 3 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 GFS model run.Parallel GFS version.


Fig. 4 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 HWRF model run.


Fig. 5 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 12Z July 5 CMC global model run.NOGAPS wind swath.

Next update
I'll probably tweak this blog later tonight as new model runs come in. I'll have a full update tomorrow afternoon (Pacific time).

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Don't let the convection fool you, 96L is not that well organized today either
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Quoting IKE:


Stay at 30%...convection fading some over the Yucatan.


Structure-wise though, looking very impressive.
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1268. hydrus
Quoting tropicfreak:
So what do you all think the NHC will do at 2pm? Up 96L to 50 or 60%?
50% And then later tonight to 60%..jmo
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22728
1267. IKE
Quoting tropicfreak:
So what do you all think the NHC will do at 2pm? Up 96L to 50 or 60%?


Stay at 30%...convection fading some over the Yucatan.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting StormSurgeon:


G'nite Aussie. Make sure to check under the bed for Chuck Norris....


Chuck Norris can go invisible if he needs to.
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315
Anything else the NHC would note elsewhere in the Atlantic?
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So what do you all think the NHC will do at 2pm? Up 96L to 50 or 60%?
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Cmc is not relevant
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Quoting YouCaneDoIt:


Can you please provide the link to the NOGAPS in 180 hours?

Thanks


Get a map of the W. Hemisphere, tack to the wall, stand back 30 feet, throw a dart and your solution will be as accurate.
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Quoting hurricanehanna:

do you mean it would follow it?


96L has always seemed to have two areas of spin. One at the low levels that runs ahead or at the North end of the system with little convection that currently would seem to be well into the Gulf now. The other further South currently over the Yucatan that doesn't seem to be at the low level but has most of the convection with it. It does seem possible that the North one could get pulled up by 95L while the South one follows the WNW track. Keep in mind that this is all babble by a non-met.
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1260. hydrus
Quoting StormSurgeon:


Dangit Hydrus, why'd you show me that?
This is only the beginning S.S. Wait until the the massive hurricanes start come rolling through on a regular basis.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22728
1259. angiest
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
I got no real faith in the NOGAPS at long range. But the pattern is one that will deliver storms to gom with alarming regularity. How long can we keep dodging bullets is the real question!


It has felt like a Gulf season since at least May, possibly April. The early spring weather actually reminded me of both 2005 and 2008.
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Out for a while to "hell on earth" (WalMart), be back to check on 96L later!
Member Since: September 10, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 17
Quoting johnnyascat:


This reason given is utterly false. Plord was the one making controversial political statements on this blog and it was perceived that his posts did not help Portlights efforts. After some discussion it was agreed that he retire his identity for the good of Portlight.

Many of his online activities are still very controversial. This link will take you to one of his facebook wall photos. It is just one of many disturbing images he propagates.


Spent a lot of time talking to him, have you? While I'll admit my post was over-simplification, his reasoning had a great deal do with that as it did his feeling that his activities here were harming Portlight's cause. My argument to him was that he, to a large extent, IS Portlight and the people he felt he was alientaing were not the people that gave freely of themselves to that sort of organization anyway...
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Goodnight all.


G'nite Aussie. Make sure to check under the bed for Chuck Norris....
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Quoting muddertracker:
I hope so...I dont' know Press personally, but I've always liked what he has to contribute on the blog. Good guy, Press.


He's one of the best of us
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...off for lunch here...got to gain some weight to keep from being blown over these railings....gonna be a rough summer seemingly here in NOLA...
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1253. hydrus
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
I got no real faith in the NOGAPS at long range. But the pattern is one that will deliver storms to gom with alarming regularity. How long can we keep dodge bullets is the real question!
If the NOGAPS was correct all the time, I believe that Nicaragua would have disappeared by now. It showed them being hit 5 times already. I post the models to show possible scenarios and patterns.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22728
Quoting dagaleaa:
Just a comment for cloudyOday. Love your corgi photo. I have two corgis myself.


They are in the tub ready to hunker down for any storm! No other place to go in my 1926 house having no rooms without windows!
Member Since: September 10, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 17
Quoting Chicklit:
I don't care what my doctor's politics are.
I go there to get treatment.



Good point.
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
NOGAPS at 180 hrs would truly suck.


Can you please provide the link to the NOGAPS in 180 hours?

Thanks
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Quoting Patrap:
95L feeder Band slams Uptown NOLA 4:30Pm July 5th 2010



Looks worthy of a weak T.S. classification at least to me. Fido seemed to agree....
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Goodnight all.



Plug in the oil heaters....
Nite Aussie..sleep warm!
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Quoting hydrus:
Press has contributed greatly to Portlight and this blog. He and others here have helped many, many people who have been and still are suffering. There work is wonderful.
Agreed. I can't wait until my children get a little older so I can start contributing to the greater good like Press and many, many others, too.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Floodman...... you have WU-mail.


Aussie, back at ya, mate!
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1245. IKE
Not sure if the 12Z CMC was posted earlier.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1244. Patrap
Nitey aussie..stay warm dude.
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Nite Aussie!
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1242. USSINS
I don't care what my doctor's politics are.
I go there to get treatment.
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Goodnight all.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979
1239. Patrap
Quoting KingofNewOrleans:


Orleans is a very long Parish SE to NW, but I've had very little rain from 95L down here by Audubon Park.



Not to much here at Mag and Jeff.
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Can anybody help find a current radar animation of Cozumel or Cancun, Mexico? All I can find are the still shots. I'm striking out with the Mexican Met. Services, as usual.

Thanks in advance ...
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Quoting Patrap:
Special Weather Statement

Statement as of 11:57 AM CDT on July 06, 2010

... Line of strong thunderstorms moving northwest affecting Hancock
County... St. Bernard Parish... Orleans Parish... St. Tammany Parish...

At 1156 am CDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
line of strong thunderstorms from Chalmette to 28 miles southeast of
Slidell... moving northwest at 25 mph.

The line of strong thunderstorms will affect areas in and around...
Lakefront Airport... east New Orleans... Lake
Catherine... Pearlington... Eden Isle... Slidell... and Lacombe

The primary threat from these storms is wind gusts to near 40 mph...
which could down tree limbs and blow around unsecured small objects.
Seek shelter in a safe home or building until these storms have
passed.

These storms could produce rainfall amounts of one to two inches in a
short period of time... resulting in ponding of water around low lying
roadways. Remember... do not drive your vehicle into water covered
roadways. The depth may be too great to allow a safe crossing.



Orleans is a very long Parish SE to NW, but I've had very little rain from 95L down here by Audubon Park.
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RE: 1231




+1
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Just a comment for cloudyOday. Love your corgi photo. I have two corgis myself.
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
I got no real faith in the NOGAPS at long range. But the pattern is one that will deliver storms to gom with alarming regularity. How long can we keep dodging bullets is the real question!


Oh Oh Oh ::raising hand::
Now this one I know the answer too..
We can't :(
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Quoting hydrus:
This NOGAPS model is a bit interesting....Link


Dangit Hydrus, why'd you show me that?
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CPC forecast for next week:

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I got no real faith in the NOGAPS at long range. But the pattern is one that will deliver storms to gom with alarming regularity. How long can we keep dodging bullets is the real question!
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Quoting Patrap:
95L feeder Band slams Uptown NOLA 4:30Pm July 5th 2010


That's some down pour.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979
1227. hydrus
Quoting muddertracker:
I hope so...I dont' know Press personally, but I've always liked what he has to contribute on the blog. Good guy, Press.
Press has contributed greatly to Portlight and this blog. He and others here have helped many, many people who have been and still are suffering. There work is wonderful.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22728
Quoting Chicklit:
Daddy always warned about watchin the tail.
Lotsa trouble there.
Snakes, storms and use your magination.


Chasing tail gets you in trouble...unless you are the dog...but NOGAPS has storms chasing each others tail into the gulf it seems..
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1225. USSINS
Quoting SiestaCpl:


...could mean a stronger storm forming in the SW gulf being pulled more Northward towards the bayous of LA me thinks...messing with my beigner snacking...




Naaah, all the models and a few of the WU aces already have it landfalling in seTX or Mexico. No worries. ;P
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
NOGAPS at 180 hrs would truly suck.


Say NO NO NO to NOGAP! Three coming ...messing with us badly if they are right..which they rarely are fully right....
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1223. Patrap
95L feeder Band slams Uptown NOLA 4:30Pm July 5th 2010

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Quoting Patrap:
The 95L Swirly thing a ma bob with trailing fetch is gonna influence the 96L track if those GOM Mid Gulf pressures continue to fall.

The NHC iz gonna have to be on their collective toes this week,..

Cuz we sure will.

do you mean it would follow it?
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Daddy always warned about watchin the tail.
Lotsa trouble there.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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