Invest 95L Brushes Louisiana Coastline

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:42 AM GMT on July 06, 2010

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Hi all,

Dr. Rob Carver, filling in for Jeff this week.

Midnight CDT Update
The low known as Invest 95L stopped it's northward progression and is now moving west along the Louisiana coastline. This is the oddest mesoscale convective complex/tropical feature I've seen in awhile. It's still producing a lot of rain, 2+ inches inland and 6+ inches over the ocean.


Base reflectivity from Lake Charles, LA at 11PM July 5 showing a very nice comma head. Animated loop.


Invest 95L is making landfall now in southern Louisiana near Terrebonne Bay. A CMAN station in Terrebonne Bay is currently reporting winds from the SE at 21 mph and the pressure is 1009 mb. Looking at the radar data, Invest 95L never had convection around the center of circulation. Also, it was hard to see a distinct surface circulation in the different analyses available. I believe soaking rains for southern Lousisana are going to be Invest 95L's main legacy. It's already produced 5+ inches of rain in some offshore locations according to radar-derived rainfall estimates.


Fig. 1 Meteogram for TRBL1 in Terrebonne Bay, LA. Tabular data are here.


Fig. 2 Base reflectivity from New Orleans, LA at 706PM, July 5. Animated loop.

Invest 96L
430 AM Update
In sum, the 00Z model runs don't present a different picture. It is curious to note that the Canadian Global model does not intensify 96L at all in the 00Z run, while NOGAPS has shifted towards a SE Louisiana landfall. I think the following discussion is still valid.

96L is going to be an interesting feature to forecast. It's still on the edge of a strong wind shear gradient. 40+ knots of shear are on the NE side of 96L, and <10 knots are on the SW side. The "center" of 96L is under about 15 knots of shear. This is likely inhibiting 96L. Nearly all forecast models take 96L NW through the Yucatan peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico. Near the Yucatan itself, sea-surface temperatures are relatively cool, not the best environment for intensification. However, at 25N, 87W there is a hotspot of SST's, which would promote rapid intensification. However, there's currently 20 knots of shear over the hotspot, so the thunderstorms that do form as a result will be well ventilated, and not cause 96L to intensify.

The dynamical models have different takes on how 96L intensifies in the next 120 hours. The 18Z operational GFS strongly intensifies 96L over the hotspot and takes 96L towards Grand Isle, LA. The parallel (for testing model configuration changes) GFS has a similar track, but does not strengthen 96L as much. This indicates uncertainty on how the models are handling the upper-level winds.

The 18Z HWRF solution is much like the parallel GFS solution. The 12Z Canadian global model has a more westerly track, pushing 96L towards Port Arthur, but it strengthens 96L right before it makes landfall, not when it's over open water. NOGAPS takes the "a little from column A, a little from column B" approach, with a spinup over the hotspot (op. GFS solution), but a westerly landfall (the Canadian solution). More data to initialize the models from synoptic reconnaissance flights will help reduce uncertainty.

The bottom line, 96L will move into the Gulf of Mexico and is then shrouded by the mists of uncertainty. I also think that it's a possibility (>50%) that it will become a tropical cyclone sometime in the next 48-72 hours (leaning towards sometime in day 2-3 based on the model runs.)


Fig. 3 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 GFS model run.Parallel GFS version.


Fig. 4 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 HWRF model run.


Fig. 5 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 12Z July 5 CMC global model run.NOGAPS wind swath.

Next update
I'll probably tweak this blog later tonight as new model runs come in. I'll have a full update tomorrow afternoon (Pacific time).

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Good job StormW like always.
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1369. Squid28
One of the Houston mets actually mentioned 96L at lunch, was thinking maybe a strong TD/weak TS at landfall south of here. He alluded to copius amounts of precipitation end of this week/ beginning of next.

Meanwhile 95L is feeding a large amount of moisture this direction, and we are building some serious cloud lines. Looks like we are next up for a whoopin....

About Press, without his being here, I seriously doubt that Portlight would have ever achieved the level of recognition that it has today. He was and will for ever be associated with Portlight. I understand his position, but did enjoy his presence here as an individual as well. Everyone does not see eye to eye, but it is ones ability to respect differences of opinion that sets them apart. I just wish everyone could understand this, then his need to bow out would not have been as "Pressing".
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The vorticity has really shifted to the north...

Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 152
Quoting hydrus:
A week before your(unpleasantness) we were whacked with Hurricane David on Lake Okeechobee. It was rather nasty for about 15 hours. They sort of blew that forecast. Saying it was suppose to move into the Gulf off the S.W/FL coast. Went up and made landfall at Fort Pierce instead. I am not picking on the NHC. But that is the way it went down.


I know the feeling, overall we were hammered for 10-12 hours, but that eyewall episode was flat out scary (to say the least). Freddie puled a fast one and slowed dramatically upon landfall and just wreaked havoc on Mobile, which hadn't seen a direct hit in 49 years. Had he passed 10 miles further east I would have experinced an eye. wouldn't have mattered at night anyway. I hate hurricanes now but living in hurricane alley I hope to view "the stadium" before I move on.
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
1365. ssmate
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
96L reminds me exactly of how Alex formed. It started off with several mid level circulations, before it finally turned on the engine.

That is exactly what we are seeing here, only further north. It's increasing in size with each attempt, which is how Alex got so big. More and more air is being teased around an eventual center ... if it ever manages to get it's act together.

Realistically though, how hard is it going to be, with water this warm, and an upper level environment conducive>? What's it waiting for? My guess is, the same thing that Alex was .... sufficient accumulated angular momentum.
I agree with your opinion on 96L.
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Whatever happens to 96L it is forecasted to be near South Texas coast Thursday evening.
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Convection is holding together in the eastern part of 96L.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6877
Quoting rmbjoe1954:
Cape Verde season will very soon make itself known; somebody had indicated that GFS grows a CV storm soon?


The parallel GFS has indicated it's first Atlantic storm, but it is way out in time ~11 days. As can be seen with 95L and 96L, forecasting cyclogenesis is difficult. Will be an interesting first test of the long-term parallel GFS.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11163
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
96L reminds me exactly of how Alex formed. It started off with several mid level circulations, before it finally turned on the engine.

That is exactly what we are seeing here, only further north. It's increasing in size with each attempt, which is how Alex got so big. More and more air is being teased around an eventual center ... if it ever manages to get it's act together.

Realistically though, how hard is it going to be, with water this warm, and an upper level environment conducive>? What's it waiting for? My guess is, the same thing that Alex was .... sufficient accumulated angular momentum.


Well said...
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6877
TSR made a July update today increasing the numbers from the June update, 19/10/5.

Link
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Quoting Levi32:
Good morning all.

Tropical Tidbit for Tuesday, July 6th, with Video


Greetings and salutations...
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 152
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
We had 4 circles a couple of days ago. Could have several circles again in a few days?



The moles got whacked!
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 564
Doing well thank you.I hope your son is ok.
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96L reminds me exactly of how Alex formed. It started off with several mid level circulations, before it finally turned on the engine.

That is exactly what we are seeing here, only further north. It's increasing in size with each attempt, which is how Alex got so big. More and more air is being teased around an eventual center ... if it ever manages to get it's act together.

Realistically though, how hard is it going to be, with water this warm, and an upper level environment conducive>? What's it waiting for? My guess is, the same thing that Alex was .... sufficient accumulated angular momentum.

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We had 4 circles a couple of days ago. Could have several circles again in a few days?
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Quoting mcluvincane:
Things have went stone cold in the tropics! Nothing till August IMO. No models predicting any development next 7 days. 96L will amount to just rain and squally weather for se Texas and Mexico.


That kind of forecasting is a major pet peeve of mine.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6877
1351. Levi32
Good morning all.

Tropical Tidbit for Tuesday, July 6th, with Video
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Quoting StormW:
Good afternoon!


Howdy!
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 152
Good afternoon Storm.How are you today?
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Looking at what is left of 95l is moving northwest into Eastern Texas, 96l will also move to the northwest. All because of the giant high pressure in the eastern U.S. There are still waves out in the Atlantic that could develop also.
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Quoting gator23:
why is everyone now saying this will be a normal season? I would say 6 invests and a cat 2 hurricane before July 4th is an active season. And just because 2005 was working on E storm doesnt mean a thing. This season may be late to end. RIP this season in December.
You know how people are. They go back and forth between extremes. It's either "OMG THE WORLD IS ENDING" or "There's absolutely nothing happening and nothing ever will."
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Things have went stone cold in the tropics! Nothing till August IMO. No models predicting any development next 7 days. 96L will amount to just rain and squally weather for se Texas and Mexico.
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Quoting AllStar17:
I do think the wave near 40W needs to be watched.

i agree
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As a newbie, I'm not understanding how, if it has taken 96l this long to go the short distance before the yucatan, why after it crosses it, do they seem to think it will only take one day to cross the whole GOM?
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1341. gator23
why is everyone now saying this will be a normal season? I would say 6 invests and a cat 2 hurricane before July 4th is an active season. And just because 2005 was working on E storm doesnt mean a thing. This season may be late to end. RIP this season in December.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2182
I don't really think 96L is all that healthy. It is becoming somewhat elongated...

Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 152
1339. IKE
Rain moving in at my location...inland Florida panhandle...

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My goodness we are getting heavy downpours here in northern Mobile County (re;Semmes)
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Maybe our next Invest ?

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I do think the wave near 40W needs to be watched.
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1335. hydrus
Quoting StormSurgeon:


Yeah, Frederic is our hurricane barometer around here. Spent 3 hours in the eye wall of that SOB.....at night....very unpleasent.
A week before your(unpleasantness) we were whacked with Hurricane David on Lake Okeechobee. It was rather nasty for about 15 hours. They sort of blew that forecast. Saying it was suppose to move into the Gulf off the S.W/FL coast. Went up and made landfall at Fort Pierce instead. I am not picking on the NHC. But that is the way it went down.
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Quoting washingaway:
The ULL in NW gulf seems to be moving out at a good clip now.


meaning?
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Yes it does on that image.I wonder if 95l will help pull all the convection from the NE side of 96l.I am no meterologist or anything but thats what ut looks like to me.
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I would keep an eye on that system off the NE US
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The ULL in NW gulf seems to be moving out at a good clip now.
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4 circles down to 1...

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Quoting IKE:


*We are gathered here today to honor an invest that put teh WU blog community in fight mode. It deserved the honor of being a TD, even after we were told to forget about it. You gave it your all 95L/TD2/Bonnie?, and we honor you.*

IKE will make a $10 donation to the...designate 95L a TD...fund! Checks in the mail!


Actually, I think we should refer to 95L in the future as "TD*Pat"
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 152
In case it hasn't been posted...

NOAA'S P-3 WILL BEGIN A SERIES OF FOUR RESEARCH
MISSIONS INTO THIS AREA (96L) AT 06/2000Z TODAY AND
THEN DEPARTING EVERY 12 HRS. OPERATING ALTITUDE
12,000 FT.

Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 152
1327. Patrap
Quoting IKE:


*We are gathered here today to honor an invest that put teh WU blog community in fight mode. It deserved the honor of being a TD, even after we were told to forget about it. You gave it your all 95L/TD2/Bonnie?, and we honor you.*

IKE will make a $10 donation to the...designate 95L a TD...fund! Checks in the mail!




I wont "Forget 95L"

95L Showed a few that to turn yer Back and collective breadth of Knowledge on a Coastal Invest,..just may bite ya on da butt.
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Richmond Va. is reporting 106 with a heat index of 112 .... that is HOT!!!
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1325. IKE
Quoting mrsalagranny:
Good afternoon Ike.Is it possible 96l can be picked up by the moisture from 95l and pull it Northward?


Looks to me like it is...Link
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Quoting IKE:


Doesn't look likely in the immediate future...maybe once it gets back over water..but now the NHC is saying it's only "marginally conducive" for development.


ok.. I'm starting to think there is no hope for 96L......kinda surprised though after having Alex....
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1322. hydrus
Quoting rmbjoe1954:
Cape Verde season will very soon make itself known; somebody had indicated that GFS grows a CV storm soon?
It does look like the moisture field out there is gradually increasing....Link ....Cimss...
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1321. IKE
Quoting TexasHurricane:


Does that mean anything as far as developing?


Doesn't look likely in the immediate future...maybe once it gets back over water..but now the NHC is saying it's only "marginally conducive" for development.
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Quoting hydrus:
I am from S.W.Florida. I have been through a few too many myself. I have watched your region get slammed over the years also. The most memorable being Frederick in 1979. And Ivan in 04. Danny in 97 did some damage too.


Yeah, Frederic is our hurricane barometer around here. Spent 3 hours in the eye wall of that SOB.....at night....very unpleasent.
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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