Invest 95L Brushes Louisiana Coastline

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:42 AM GMT on July 06, 2010

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Hi all,

Dr. Rob Carver, filling in for Jeff this week.

Midnight CDT Update
The low known as Invest 95L stopped it's northward progression and is now moving west along the Louisiana coastline. This is the oddest mesoscale convective complex/tropical feature I've seen in awhile. It's still producing a lot of rain, 2+ inches inland and 6+ inches over the ocean.


Base reflectivity from Lake Charles, LA at 11PM July 5 showing a very nice comma head. Animated loop.


Invest 95L is making landfall now in southern Louisiana near Terrebonne Bay. A CMAN station in Terrebonne Bay is currently reporting winds from the SE at 21 mph and the pressure is 1009 mb. Looking at the radar data, Invest 95L never had convection around the center of circulation. Also, it was hard to see a distinct surface circulation in the different analyses available. I believe soaking rains for southern Lousisana are going to be Invest 95L's main legacy. It's already produced 5+ inches of rain in some offshore locations according to radar-derived rainfall estimates.


Fig. 1 Meteogram for TRBL1 in Terrebonne Bay, LA. Tabular data are here.


Fig. 2 Base reflectivity from New Orleans, LA at 706PM, July 5. Animated loop.

Invest 96L
430 AM Update
In sum, the 00Z model runs don't present a different picture. It is curious to note that the Canadian Global model does not intensify 96L at all in the 00Z run, while NOGAPS has shifted towards a SE Louisiana landfall. I think the following discussion is still valid.

96L is going to be an interesting feature to forecast. It's still on the edge of a strong wind shear gradient. 40+ knots of shear are on the NE side of 96L, and <10 knots are on the SW side. The "center" of 96L is under about 15 knots of shear. This is likely inhibiting 96L. Nearly all forecast models take 96L NW through the Yucatan peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico. Near the Yucatan itself, sea-surface temperatures are relatively cool, not the best environment for intensification. However, at 25N, 87W there is a hotspot of SST's, which would promote rapid intensification. However, there's currently 20 knots of shear over the hotspot, so the thunderstorms that do form as a result will be well ventilated, and not cause 96L to intensify.

The dynamical models have different takes on how 96L intensifies in the next 120 hours. The 18Z operational GFS strongly intensifies 96L over the hotspot and takes 96L towards Grand Isle, LA. The parallel (for testing model configuration changes) GFS has a similar track, but does not strengthen 96L as much. This indicates uncertainty on how the models are handling the upper-level winds.

The 18Z HWRF solution is much like the parallel GFS solution. The 12Z Canadian global model has a more westerly track, pushing 96L towards Port Arthur, but it strengthens 96L right before it makes landfall, not when it's over open water. NOGAPS takes the "a little from column A, a little from column B" approach, with a spinup over the hotspot (op. GFS solution), but a westerly landfall (the Canadian solution). More data to initialize the models from synoptic reconnaissance flights will help reduce uncertainty.

The bottom line, 96L will move into the Gulf of Mexico and is then shrouded by the mists of uncertainty. I also think that it's a possibility (>50%) that it will become a tropical cyclone sometime in the next 48-72 hours (leaning towards sometime in day 2-3 based on the model runs.)


Fig. 3 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 GFS model run.Parallel GFS version.


Fig. 4 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 HWRF model run.


Fig. 5 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 12Z July 5 CMC global model run.NOGAPS wind swath.

Next update
I'll probably tweak this blog later tonight as new model runs come in. I'll have a full update tomorrow afternoon (Pacific time).

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1420. gator23
Quoting Floodman:


Most here pick on the NHC because they tend to be more conservative in their forecasts...some defend them regardless, as well they should. Now, about TWC...they are attacked here roundly by all, and deservedly so...LOL

the TWC is aweful, just aweful. The NHC does an amazign thing when you think about it. they are able to tell you where a tropical weather system can impact within 186 miles 2 days out. Thats pretty remarkable.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2162
Quoting Dakster:


I can do one on how not to lose money in current market conditions... Put it all in a FDIC savings account. Although you won't make much.


Put it all on red baby!
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Quoting hcubed:


Wait a second - your'e supposed to put COKE in with the rum?

THAT explains why I lost my eyebrows...


who told you to light the rum on fire?
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1417. Levi32
Quoting kmanislander:


Can you do one on how to make money in current market conditions ??


LOL. Hey now I don't want to be giving away my greatest secret do I :P
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Hello StormW. I hope you can shed some light on the action centered near 40W.

Thanks!
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Quoting hcubed:


Wait a second - your'e supposed to put COKE in with the rum?

THAT explains why I lost my eyebrows...


You too? What a surprise that was...LOL
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Patience is a virtue.


and lacking by many lol
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Well I have to head back to the office now. Catch up with you all later.
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Quoting kmanislander:


Hi Levi,

I just watched your video and found it to be both informative and , in some respects, fascinating. The discussion around the MJO and the converging winds in the Caribbean added a dimension to these features that the average blogger ( myself included ) don't often appreciate fully.

You clearly know this topic well and I would like to say that having you on the blog has been a breath of fresh air. Well done.


Ditto!
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 152
Quoting CaneHunter031472:


Poof!! 96L Poof!! Not the best conditions for development sorry guys maybe next one.
Patience is a virtue.
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1410. Dakster
Quoting kmanislander:


Can you do one on how to make money in current market conditions ??


I can do one on how not to lose money in current market conditions... Put it all in a FDIC savings account. Although you won't make much.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10034
1409. hcubed
Quoting LightningCharmer:
1029 I don't understand the outrage. There were glaring typographical errors in an official statement from weather authorities. The weather statement's lack of obvious proof reading led to the discussion with which you objected. It's not like the blog was debating illegal immigration, the Peloponnesian war or the proper proportions of a rum and coke.


Wait a second - your'e supposed to put COKE in with the rum?

THAT explains why I lost my eyebrows...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tkeith:
Each day that goes by without a named system is a blessing this year.

quote of the day...


Agreed...the days are coming when we will be going through a couple of names a week...
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Quoting CaneHunter031472:


Poof!! 96L Poof!! Not the best conditions for development sorry guys maybe next one.


Thought you were "poofing" a blogger. Ice skater......too funny.
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
1406. tkeith
Each day that goes by without a named system is a blessing this year.

quote of the day...
Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8923
Quoting Levi32:


Well thank you very much :) I'm glad you enjoyed it.


Can you do one on how to make money in current market conditions ??
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Quoting pilotguy1:
I still can't figure out why all the bashing of NHC since their guessing seems to be about as good as anyone Else's guessing. We all know that any forecasting more than 24-48 hours is mostly a guess based on historical accuracy. Or is it just recreational fun here to pick on everyone?


Most here pick on the NHC because they tend to be more conservative in their forecasts...some defend them regardless, as well they should. Now, about TWC...they are attacked here roundly by all, and deservedly so...LOL
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Quoting kmanislander:


Hi Levi,

I just watched your video and found it to be both informative and , in some respects, fascinating. The discussion around the MJO and the converging winds in the Caribbean added a dimension to these features that the average blogger ( myself included ) don't often appreciate fully.

You clearly know this topic well and I would like to say that having you on the blog has been a breath of fresh air. Well done.


I couldnt agree more. It is so nice to have information without rude remarks and insinuations.
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Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Whatever happens to 96L it is forecasted to be near South Texas coast Thursday evening.


Give it another model run, itll change. It was forecasted to come right here into Houston yesterday. A better forecast will be along in the next 24-48 hrs. That is when more will be known. One thing for sure, no burn ban or drought here in SE Texas!!! Praise the Lord!
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Quoting StormW:
Hey kman!


Hi there. Just taking a break for lunch.

Looks like a bit of a lull for a day or so. 96L still suffering from split personality problems with its best chance for development now over land.

My attention is further out in the Atl. as there are signs that the CV season is about to take over from the Caribbean type disturbances that have dominated the tropical weather of late.

In particular, the wave near 40 W is exhibitng some fair amount of turning and vorticity that has persisted over time. Coming off the coast is another interesting feature with very high vorticity and that will also need monitoring down the road.

Each day that goes by without a named system is a blessing this year.

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The new Cape Verde wave looks impressive, is it still too soon?
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1399. BA
Quoting itrackstorms:
The vorticity has really shifted to the north...



two diff. now...surface and mid-level, doesn't appear they will be lining up either at this point, JB says surface will head up then watch the mid-level to see if it ends up developing once over the gulf

sorry for the jedi grammar ;)
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Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:
look at this tropical wave.


*face gets red, about to blow its top*
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Quoting StormSurgeon:


??


Poof!! 96L Poof!! Not the best conditions for development sorry guys maybe next one.
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Quoting kmanislander:


Hi Levi,

I just watched your video and found it to be both informative and , in some respects, fascinating. The discussion around the MJO and the converging winds in the Caribbean added a dimension to these features that the average blogger ( myself included ) don't often appreciate fully.

You clearly know this topic well and I would like to say that having you on the blog has been a breath of fresh air. Well done.


I second that
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1393. Levi32
Quoting kmanislander:


Hi Levi,

I just watched your video and found it to be both informative and , in some respects, fascinating. The discussion around the MJO and the converging winds in the Caribbean added a dimension to these features that the average blogger ( myself included ) don't often appreciate fully.

You clearly know this topic well and I would like to say that having you on the blog has been a breath of fresh air. Well done.


Well thank you very much :) I'm glad you enjoyed it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1391. Dakster
Quoting kmanislander:


Hi Levi,

I just watched your video and found it to be both informative and , in some respects, fascinating. The discussion around the MJO and the converging winds in the Caribbean added a dimension to these features that the average blogger ( myself included ) don't often appreciate fully.

You clearly know this topic well and I would like to say that having you on the blog has been a breath of fresh air. Well done.


Now you need to see the hot tower video... (which I don't have, but I am sure someone will post a link to it.)
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10034
Looks like our attention should focus on what's happening off the east coast.
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1389. JRRP
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Quoting Levi32:
Good morning all.

Tropical Tidbit for Tuesday, July 6th, with Video


Hi Levi,

I just watched your video and found it to be both informative and , in some respects, fascinating. The discussion around the MJO and the converging winds in the Caribbean added a dimension to these features that the average blogger ( myself included ) don't often appreciate fully.

You clearly know this topic well and I would like to say that having you on the blog has been a breath of fresh air. Well done.
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Quoting CaneHunter031472:
POOF!!


??
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
We lived in a mobile home at the time.But during the cane we stayed at my grannys house.You could here the wind lashing the big oak trees out back.It sounded horrible I tell ya.
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Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:
watching this storm big time for the east coast.


Ugghhh huge pet peeve, You are typing beside the image, why don't you skip a few lines so every one can see your comment. EX: wow! Do you think anybody will see that if you typed that under the image. Sorry, just a suggestion.
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Great tid bit Levi!
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1383. centex
96L going to get worse before it get's better, so let's wait until tomorrow and see how it like's the environment in the Gulf.
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Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:
watching this storm big time for the east coast.


me too
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1381. Dakster
Afternoon everyone...

Hopefully that last 'mole' will get whacked and not escape!
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10034
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Good golly. It is a fact that republicans are more generous when it comes to donations than Dems. Dems are more generous with other peoples money.


wow. can we keep the partisan attacks out of this blog? I am a Democrat and proud of it and give plenty of money to organizations...this type of stereotyping does not belong here!
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Quoting mrsalagranny:
How well I remember Hurricane Fredrick.My neice was born right in the eye passing.Boy my sister should hae named her Freda.LOL!!!!!But seriously Fredrick devistaed Mobile and its inland counties.I lived in Grand Bay at the time.


Yep, Grand Bay got the eye, West Mobile got the front right hammer.
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
POOF!!
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Looks like about 10-20 kts of sheer...


Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 152
1374. Levi32
Quoting itrackstorms:


Greetings and salutations...


Quoting NttyGrtty:
Afternoon Senior Chief, Levi...


Greetings!
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Afternoon Senior Chief, Levi...
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How well I remember Hurricane Fredrick.My neice was born right in the eye passing.Boy my sister should hae named her Freda.LOL!!!!!But seriously Fredrick devistaed Mobile and its inland counties.I lived in Grand Bay at the time.
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Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 152
Good job StormW like always.
Member Since: July 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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