Invest 95L Brushes Louisiana Coastline

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:42 AM GMT on July 06, 2010

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Hi all,

Dr. Rob Carver, filling in for Jeff this week.

Midnight CDT Update
The low known as Invest 95L stopped it's northward progression and is now moving west along the Louisiana coastline. This is the oddest mesoscale convective complex/tropical feature I've seen in awhile. It's still producing a lot of rain, 2+ inches inland and 6+ inches over the ocean.


Base reflectivity from Lake Charles, LA at 11PM July 5 showing a very nice comma head. Animated loop.


Invest 95L is making landfall now in southern Louisiana near Terrebonne Bay. A CMAN station in Terrebonne Bay is currently reporting winds from the SE at 21 mph and the pressure is 1009 mb. Looking at the radar data, Invest 95L never had convection around the center of circulation. Also, it was hard to see a distinct surface circulation in the different analyses available. I believe soaking rains for southern Lousisana are going to be Invest 95L's main legacy. It's already produced 5+ inches of rain in some offshore locations according to radar-derived rainfall estimates.


Fig. 1 Meteogram for TRBL1 in Terrebonne Bay, LA. Tabular data are here.


Fig. 2 Base reflectivity from New Orleans, LA at 706PM, July 5. Animated loop.

Invest 96L
430 AM Update
In sum, the 00Z model runs don't present a different picture. It is curious to note that the Canadian Global model does not intensify 96L at all in the 00Z run, while NOGAPS has shifted towards a SE Louisiana landfall. I think the following discussion is still valid.

96L is going to be an interesting feature to forecast. It's still on the edge of a strong wind shear gradient. 40+ knots of shear are on the NE side of 96L, and <10 knots are on the SW side. The "center" of 96L is under about 15 knots of shear. This is likely inhibiting 96L. Nearly all forecast models take 96L NW through the Yucatan peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico. Near the Yucatan itself, sea-surface temperatures are relatively cool, not the best environment for intensification. However, at 25N, 87W there is a hotspot of SST's, which would promote rapid intensification. However, there's currently 20 knots of shear over the hotspot, so the thunderstorms that do form as a result will be well ventilated, and not cause 96L to intensify.

The dynamical models have different takes on how 96L intensifies in the next 120 hours. The 18Z operational GFS strongly intensifies 96L over the hotspot and takes 96L towards Grand Isle, LA. The parallel (for testing model configuration changes) GFS has a similar track, but does not strengthen 96L as much. This indicates uncertainty on how the models are handling the upper-level winds.

The 18Z HWRF solution is much like the parallel GFS solution. The 12Z Canadian global model has a more westerly track, pushing 96L towards Port Arthur, but it strengthens 96L right before it makes landfall, not when it's over open water. NOGAPS takes the "a little from column A, a little from column B" approach, with a spinup over the hotspot (op. GFS solution), but a westerly landfall (the Canadian solution). More data to initialize the models from synoptic reconnaissance flights will help reduce uncertainty.

The bottom line, 96L will move into the Gulf of Mexico and is then shrouded by the mists of uncertainty. I also think that it's a possibility (>50%) that it will become a tropical cyclone sometime in the next 48-72 hours (leaning towards sometime in day 2-3 based on the model runs.)


Fig. 3 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 GFS model run.Parallel GFS version.


Fig. 4 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 HWRF model run.


Fig. 5 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 12Z July 5 CMC global model run.NOGAPS wind swath.

Next update
I'll probably tweak this blog later tonight as new model runs come in. I'll have a full update tomorrow afternoon (Pacific time).

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Quoting angiest:




C'mon....what is that? A lesson in Climatology?
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
Call the peacock and find out if NBC puts out the circles lol


Unless he renamed the National Hurricane Center the National Blob Center lol
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Afternoon, everyone.

Well, here they are again, those thunderstorms... back like a bad penny...

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22359
Quoting Patrap:


Well posting A FOX new story on NASA here is Like launching a jelly donut with a Nuke.


So pltttttttttttttt
Such a wise man you are Pat....Good afternoon granny.
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Quoting mrsalagranny:
Miami can I put my order in for a High Pressure so I can place it over the entire GOM.LOL!!!!!!!If so ill take 2 plz.
LOL. I wish I could order one.
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1615. angiest
Quoting mcluvincane:


Holy @#@$ does the NBC put out circles that far out


What circles?
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Quoting Patrap:
admin iz a lurking ct.

4 got the boot already today.


push the button.....
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1613. angiest
Quoting cirrocumulus:
It's hard to believe that 96L is forming over land. lol


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1611. Patrap
96L Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop
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1610. JLPR2
Quoting mcluvincane:


Holy @#@$ does the NBC put out circles that far out


Circles over there are normal for August/September but during June/July-October they are pretty rare
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Call the peacock and find out if NBC puts out the circles lol
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Quoting cirrocumulus:
It's hard to believe that 96L is forming over land. lol


yeah, these storms are really going to make us pull our hair out this year....

Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
Miami can I put my order in for a High Pressure so I can place it over the entire GOM.LOL!!!!!!!If so ill take 2 plz.
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1605. angiest
Quoting Levi32:
The pattern that could be setting up later this month is pretty concerning. The GFS has been consistently showing upper ridging becoming very dominant across the entire tropical Atlantic in the long-range, with a straight shot of upper easterlies across the entire MDR south of 20N.

Below is the GFS Parallel 200mb forecast out at Day 15, July 22nd. This is amazing to see. The upper easterlies all the way up to 20N reduce wind shear because they are moving in the same direction as the surface trade winds, and as long as they do not become too strong, they are generally favorable for tropical development and don't shear storms. The ridging up that far north opens the door for Cape Verde storms to develop and take tracks either through the Caribbean or north of the Caribbean without getting sheared, as the TUTT is forced off to the northeast and is weaker than normal, something we will see a lot of this season. This is a nasty pattern being shown by the GFS. For the record, the original GFS has been showing much of the same thing as well, and consistently.



And in between tropical systems, a hot and dry setup for much of the south. At least the high isn't forecast to be centered over me right now. :P
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Going to be in a lull period in the tropics for awhile. The first part of July is mostly always a hostile period. Upper level winds are not favorable for the majority of the Atlantic and all areas of interest are moving into shear. Ten more days or so and things should start picking up.
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What is it with the Yucatan Pen.? I thought land was supposed to disrupt storms...all it seems to be doing now is helping them "pick a center and run with it."
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Quoting Levi32:
The pattern that could be setting up later this month is pretty concerning. The GFS has been consistently showing upper ridging becoming very dominant across the entire tropical Atlantic in the long-range, with a straight shot of upper easterlies across the entire MDR south of 20N.

Below is the GFS Parallel 200mb forecast out at Day 15, July 22nd. This is amazing to see. The upper easterlies all the way up to 20N reduce wind shear because they are moving in the same direction as the surface trade winds, and as long as they do not become too strong, they are generally favorable for tropical development and don't shear storms. The ridging up that far north opens the door for Cape Verde storms to develop and take tracks either through the Caribbean or north of the Caribbean without getting sheared, as the TUTT is forced off to the northeast and is weaker than normal, something we will see a lot of this season. This is a nasty pattern being shown by the GFS. For the record, the original GFS has been showing much of the same thing as well.

Very favorable pattern for cyclogenesis and intensification. Definitely something you don't want to see in July much less in August or even September. Hopefully things will switch up, although it doesn't seem like they will.
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Quoting DestinJeff:


C'mon, there is a partnership between space and tropical weather analysis. That's not a stretch.


We'll we really could use a new QuikSCAT.. and what takes those up?
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Quoting JLPR2:




Loosing steam, but its normal, land to sea is a harsh change


Holy @#@$ does the NBC put out circles that far out
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It's hard to believe that 96L is forming over land. lol
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Quoting Patrap:
We can do the Space thing in Lowercal's entry..or somewhere else.

This isnt the forum for it at all.






It has never ceased to amaze me how many self proclaimed blog police there are here...

If you dont like what someone is talking about there is a handy dandy ignore button that you can push. Other than than that.. this not at all the place for bloggers to tell other bloggers what they can or cant talk about..
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GOM: "Don't bother knocking..just come on in!"
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Right, back on topic...Dr. Phil is on...LOL!!
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Hi. Checkin in between laundry loads. Where is the lower level circulation in the GOM? I guess what I was watching near the Yucatan was the Mid level about to enter the BOC/GOM... Anyone? Thanks!
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Are these new waves really going to do anything? It seems like people get hyped up over everything. This weekend people made it seem like the whole gulf was goig to be destroyed by hurricanes, but now people aren't even saying that 96L will be anything more than a TS.
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1592. Levi32
The pattern that could be setting up later this month is pretty concerning. The GFS has been consistently showing upper ridging becoming very dominant across the entire tropical Atlantic in the long-range, with a straight shot of upper easterlies across the entire MDR south of 20N.

Below is the GFS Parallel 200mb forecast out at Day 15, July 22nd. This is amazing to see. The upper easterlies all the way up to 20N reduce wind shear because they are moving in the same direction as the surface trade winds, and as long as they do not become too strong, they are generally favorable for tropical development and don't shear storms. The ridging up that far north opens the door for Cape Verde storms to develop and take tracks either through the Caribbean or north of the Caribbean without getting sheared, as the TUTT is forced off to the northeast and is weaker than normal, something we will see a lot of this season. This is a nasty pattern being shown by the GFS. For the record, the original GFS has been showing much of the same thing as well, and consistently.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26661
1591. JLPR2
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I am starting not to worry about 96L anymore what I am worred is that wave at 10N 40W and the wave/low that just came off of the african coast they both will end up in the Caribbean it seems and they both have the pottental to develop and someone said earler that the wave at 40W will move into SA well it looks like it is on it way to the WNW so no I don't think SA is the target soeveryone heads up for 97L and 98L soon it should be in the Caribbean in about a weeks time whick make me get the chills and I get them when something bad is going to go down hill

WEEK 2/NEXT WEEK



yeah, yesterday it seemed to be at 8N and today its at 10N
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1590. JLPR2




Loosing steam, but its normal, land to sea is a harsh change
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I am starting not to worry about 96L anymore what I am worred is that wave at 10N 40W and the wave/low that just came off of the african coast they both will end up in the Caribbean it seems and they both have the pottental to develop and someone said earler that the wave at 40W will move into SA well it looks like it is on it way to the WNW so no I don't think SA is the target soeveryone heads up for 97L and 98L soon it should be in the Caribbean in about a weeks time whick make me get the chills and I get them when something bad is going to go down hill

WEEK 2/NEXT WEEK

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Quoting TexasHurricane:


oh ok. Thanks
To add to the comment, latest vorticity product and surface observations suggest that ***possibly*** an area of low pressure has already made it to the surface, albeit broad.
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1586. Patrap
admin iz a lurking ct.

4 got the boot already today.
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That big green hawker off Africa = a tropical low?? 96L what else.......a wait and see.
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Alright Pat. Back on topic.
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Quoting angiest:


This is true, but as many of us who live along the Gulf (areas where NASA is a major presence) know, this is not news. We've known about it for a year. We recently took the girls to JSC so they could see it before NASA is gutted.


We've known for 6 years, heck I knew when Columbia blew up in 2003 that this was the end of America's space program at least for NASA. Also in regards to Admin. Bolden's comments, I have no idea why he said but a 4 time shuttle astronaut and a Marine general would never say something as ridiculous as that. Plus I've met him in person, he's a great guy. Met him in 2004 in San Diego.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Meaning that the mid level center currently nestled within 96L's deepest convection might be trying to work its way down to the surface.


oh ok. Thanks
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
1580. RM706
Up next .. HURRICANE CONSPIRACIES ... Who wants to talk Tunnels?!!

http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.html
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Quoting txalwaysprepared:


Very sad. My son just spent two days at space camp.. loved it!


I have relatives in the space program who are going to loose jobs. GPS, Velcro, Satellites, your computer, and loads more of things would not have been possible without NASA technological revolution with the Apollo program plus pushing for higher goals in space increases loads more jobs, such as sending a man to Mars.
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1578. angiest
Quoting CybrTeddy:
A

I wish it wasn't so, but that's a true statement. We won't have Space Shuttles, won't have a way to really service the ISS, sure we'll have the Russians but personally I'm not a big fan of knowing our main enemy in space flight 40 years ago will take over American space flight.


This is true, but as many of us who live along the Gulf (areas where NASA is a major presence) know, this is not news. We've known about it for a year. We recently took the girls to JSC so they could see it before NASA is gutted.
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1577. Squid28
Quoting Chicklit:
Africa just hawked a big one.
IRLoopEATL


Really ought to get that checked out, it looks horrible.....
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Quoting Floodman:


Historically when he's out for vacation something develops; it's sort of a running joke here that when the tropics are slow, Doc needs to go on vacation


I know Flood, just being facetious (again). I've been here a few years, as you know. Dr. Jeff needs a vacation away from this place a lot more than we do...
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1575. Patrap
96L RGB Loop d' Loop
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Quoting Baybuddy:


Google nasa chief Bolden
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
A

I wish it wasn't so, but that's a true statement. We won't have Space Shuttles, won't have a way to really service the ISS, sure we'll have the Russians but personally I'm not a big fan of knowing our main enemy in space flight 40 years ago will take over American space flight.


Very sad. My son just spent two days at space camp.. loved it!
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1572. Patrap
Hiya ms..watching Dr. Phil with Coach Peyton right now
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Low Cloud Product
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Quoting btwntx08:

?????
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.