A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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5451. MississippiBoy
1:59 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
Quoting TXStormWatcher2011:


Hi Kristina40, many of us have no more credentials than you have to post here. Don't let the 'spoilers' get you down. I've never felt intimidated here by the PhD's etc... Enjoy! :)

When everybody comes together as one you can learn a lot.
Member Since: April 6, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 283
5450. earthlydragonfly
1:13 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
Evening everyone! Does anyone have a link to a good lightning tracker for Fl.?
Member Since: July 1, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1681
5449. MiamiHurricanes09
12:58 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
5447. TXStormWatcher2011
12:55 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
Quoting Kristina40:
Look all, I'm a newbie here so I sure don't have any "weather creds" but I come here for some good information and to gain knowledge.


Hi Kristina40, many of us have no more credentials than you have to post here. Don't let the 'spoilers' get you down. I've never felt intimidated here by the PhD's etc... Enjoy! :)
Member Since: June 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 14
5446. Chicklit
12:54 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
Accsue me.
That's a new one.

Meanwhile, looks like wind shear is relaxing in the Carib or is this my magination?


shearmap
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11036
5445. RobertM320
12:51 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
New blog, guys!...just a reminder..last one out turn out the lights.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 111
5444. superweatherman
12:51 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
NEW BLOG THIS SHIPS HAS ARRIVED... AND IT IS TIME TO GET TO NEW SHIP.
Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 306
5443. PensacolaDoug
12:48 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
Joe Bastardi re-post. He makes a good point about the TPC and their very arbitrary ways of doing things. The following is from his blog this afternoon.



There is no change to my idea on the system in the northern gulf, it is doing what it was supposed to do, but if anything, we are getting a prime example of what is wrong with TPC and why my two suggested ideas.. 1 on how to classify ( closed rotary circulation, gales in on quad and 2) how to judge the intensity of the storm, incorporating pressure and pressure tendency on a 1-10 scale would be better. In any case a forecaster came in and saw what all saw, that this had a vigorous low to mid level circulation that could cause strong winds in a small area, so he upgraded. What should have been done before could have been handled with special tropical disturbance statements, rather than just blowing it off as a 10% chance. That is not to say it should be named, it is to say that the perception is that there is a sudden jump in intensity, when that is plainly not the case! What happened was a change of the shift and someone looking hard at the data and making a judgement call. Of course you and I have to react, to I have to let all my clients know that its the same as has been described, the weather has not changed, just the forecaster for TPC did and decided to handle it differently

You get what I am talking about. And this person has had several "experiences" where he walked into a hornets nest... a storm that was developing without the previous shift even saying anything. For you Texans.. remember the morning of Allison, the 5 am bulletin, or Humberto?

But like I said, if Alex is any indication, we are in for a long season, and I am talking not only about the actual weather, but the explanations I will have to give. It would be funny if it werent so serious, but it has spread to other matters, non weather related ( I dont know how much more economic recovery I can take over here... I feel guilty the way things have been going so good there too)

I am developing a dark side

Now the most obvious problem in the northwest gulf is still forecasted to not line up the low and mid level centers enough so that it wont be a big storm. But here is the problem and why the area from Corpus Christi to the Louisiana coast should be concerned. These large scale pattern development systems need time to develop. One can plainly see a mid level rotation center east of the northern coast of the Yucatan. Gales are being reported from ships south of the west tip of Cuba where the low and mid level flows are lined up. But the system leans southeast from the low level center near the northeast coast of the Yucatan to the mid level center. If such a system were to line up, look out, another case of rapid feedback development. I dont think this will have the time. However I do think and area of tropical storm conditions, with gales and heavy rains, will pinwheel on the right side of the system, and that means the threat of 6-12 hours of heavy rain... and no matter how its classified ( after what we have been seeing, who knows, right) tropical storm like conditions on the upper Texas or Louisiana coast later Wednesday or Thursday


Now, here is why New England has to sleep with one eye open ( Canadian maritimes too) The upper low that is well east of the coast will back southwest the next several days and entrain the energy from the tropical wave near Puerto Rico. There is plenty of heat around, no doubt about that, the ocean is boiling off the east coast relative to the time of the year. With a major ridge building over the central Atlantic and a trough in the middle of the nation, the area southeast of Hatteras would be a nice place for this wave to get entrained into a falling pressure field caused by the upper low backing, and feedback and develop. A TPC nightmare of course since they tend to ignore things like that, and then its a 50-50 chance if it ever gets classified ( Jersey Devil) anyway. But there is some African influence here and the MJO is locked in octant 2, so one never can be sure if the whack a mole pattern doesnt deliver in cases like this.

Notes and asides: I see the polar temp has been below normal much of the summer
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 519
5442. CosmicEvents
12:47 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
My question to the NHC:

If you are just going to put it right back to 0%, what's the purpose of raising it to 60%.

I've got a feeling that mister "STEWART" is going to get an ear fold by the big honcho.

moved
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5458
5441. floridaT
12:47 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Here's Joey B's take on 95 this afternoon.

There is no change to my idea on the system in the northern gulf, it is doing what it was supposed to do, but if anything, we are getting a prime example of what is wrong with TPC and why my two suggested ideas.. 1 on how to classify ( closed rotary circulation, gales in on quad and 2) how to judge the intensity of the storm, incorporating pressure and pressure tendency on a 1-10 scale would be better. In any case a forecaster came in and saw what all saw, that this had a vigorous low to mid level circulation that could cause strong winds in a small area, so he upgraded. What should have been done before could have been handled with special tropical disturbance statements, rather than just blowing it off as a 10% chance. That is not to say it should be named, it is to say that the perception is that there is a sudden jump in intensity, when that is plainly not the case! What happened was a change of the shift and someone looking hard at the data and making a judgement call. Of course you and I have to react, to I have to let all my clients know that its the same as has been described, the weather has not changed, just the forecaster for TPC did and decided to handle it differently

You get what I am talking about. And this person has had several "experiences" where he walked into a hornets nest... a storm that was developing without the previous shift even saying anything. For you Texans.. remember the morning of Allison, the 5 am bulletin, or Humberto?

But like I said, if Alex is any indication, we are in for a long season, and I am talking not only about the actual weather, but the explanations I will have to give. It would be funny if it werent so serious, but it has spread to other matters, non weather related ( I dont know how much more economic recovery I can take over here... I feel guilty the way things have been going so good there too)

I am developing a dark side

Now the most obvious problem in the northwest gulf is still forecasted to not line up the low and mid level centers enough so that it wont be a big storm. But here is the problem and why the area from Corpus Christi to the Louisiana coast should be concerned. These large scale pattern development systems need time to develop. One can plainly see a mid level rotation center east of the northern coast of the Yucatan. Gales are being reported from ships south of the west tip of Cuba where the low and mid level flows are lined up. But the system leans southeast from the low level center near the northeast coast of the Yucatan to the mid level center. If such a system were to line up, look out, another case of rapid feedback development. I dont think this will have the time. However I do think and area of tropical storm conditions, with gales and heavy rains, will pinwheel on the right side of the system, and that means the threat of 6-12 hours of heavy rain... and no matter how its classified ( after what we have been seeing, who knows, right) tropical storm like conditions on the upper Texas or Louisiana coast later Wednesday or Thursday


Now, here is why New England has to sleep with one eye open ( Canadian maritimes too) The upper low that is well east of the coast will back southwest the next several days and entrain the energy from the tropical wave near Puerto Rico. There is plenty of heat around, no doubt about that, the ocean is boiling off the east coast relative to the time of the year. With a major ridge building over the central Atlantic and a trough in the middle of the nation, the area southeast of Hatteras would be a nice place for this wave to get entrained into a falling pressure field caused by the upper low backing, and feedback and develop. A TPC nightmare of course since they tend to ignore things like that, and then its a 50-50 chance if it ever gets classified ( Jersey Devil) anyway. But there is some African influence here and the MJO is locked in octant 2, so one never can be sure if the whack a mole pattern doesnt deliver in cases like this.

Notes and asides: I see the polar temp has been below normal much of the summer
R U kiddin me?
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 951
5440. PensacolaBuoy
12:46 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
Has everyone given up on 95L? It's moving along the coast and continuing to close off its COC. Sure seems to deserve better than a 0% chance!
Member Since: July 28, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 370
5439. bakers
12:46 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
Quoting txsweetpea:
Can anyone tell me if 96L has made any progress towards developing?
Member Since: June 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 45
5438. bakers
12:45 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
Quoting txsweetpea:
Can anyone tell me if 96L has made any progress towards developing?


96l will not develope at all.
Member Since: June 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 45
5437. AllBoardedUp
12:45 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
You mean this bar, I mean blog is closed!
Member Since: July 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 626
5435. photonchaser
12:44 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
Just reminder...new blog
Member Since: June 3, 2004 Posts: 1 Comments: 134
5434. AlexEmmett
12:44 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
NEW BLOG THANK GOD
5433. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
12:44 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
Quoting aquak9:
Zombie alert- code red


target aguired
lockon confirmed
empty space about to be create
just like whats in there head
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52230
5430. mrsalagranny
12:42 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
Yes Sir,I will stay on however long it takes.
Member Since: June 6, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 851
5427. aquak9
12:42 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
StormW- go enjoy your dinner. Just walk away...you'll sleep better, I promise.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25502
5426. Ossqss
12:42 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
Steps in reads back and heads out >>> :)


Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8183
5425. Kristina40
12:41 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
Look all, I'm a newbie here so I sure don't have any "weather creds" but I come here for some good information and to gain knowledge. Many of us are new here because of the oil slick and the improved conditions for tropical activity this season. We are going to focus on anything in the Gulf, and understandably so. I have no idea why we can't focus on more than one thing and leave the meta nonsense for facebook.
Member Since: June 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 760
5422. hurricanehanna
12:41 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
Quoting skkippboo:


How do they let you know?

they will "nest"...scratch in the same area, pace in a circle, then "settle in"
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3480
5421. Patrap
12:40 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
Were awaiting the 00Z runs batch a rooni's so the 18 Z stuff is 6 hours old.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125537
5419. weathermancer
12:38 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
This place is starting to sound like USENET
nuthin but zombies and crybabies
Member Since: August 29, 2009 Posts: 12 Comments: 482
5418. Kristina40
12:38 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
Quoting IKE:


Best time to be on here is early morning....5-9 am.


I've noticed. Still, ya'll have an awesome blog here and I truly enjoy it.
Member Since: June 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 760
5416. xcool
12:37 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
IKE so true.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
5415. txsweetpea
12:37 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
Can anyone tell me if 96L has made any progress towards developing?
Member Since: June 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 546
5414. mrsalagranny
12:37 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
Good evening Storm.Good to see ya again.What is your thinking on 96l?
Member Since: June 6, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 851
5413. TXStormWatcher2011
12:37 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
Hi there everyone! I posted the last couple of years as stormwatcherTX but cannot seem to login to my account anymore, it just won't recognize my passwords. So here I am again.

Anyway I didn't think much of Alex and felt there was little chance of it coming here to Texas, perhaps Brownsville at best, but I had my doubts since it was crossing pretty far over the Yucatan and there is a general trend of storms like that moving into Mexico. Alex was of course no exception.

Invest 96L, is quite a different matter! This is a serious threat to Galveston amd Houston. It is worth looking at a recent study by Rice University about how a Hurricane right now would cause devastating damage to Houston.

I won't blow my own trumpet, but as a keen weather amateur, I called Ike exactly, when others didn't. Houston TV weathermen shamefully got it wrong right up to the day it struck. OK too early too say, but I think this is a big threat to the city of Galveston.

I note that 5 of the spaghetti tracks take it close to Galveston and the Houston ship channel, which would pose a considerable flooding threat to the city. One other points to about Corpus Christi, and the last into Mexico. If this thing only clips the Yucatan as I suspect, I doubt it will go to Mexico. Watch out Texas!
Member Since: June 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 14
5412. calder
12:37 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
So I'm not a 'ghost' on the blog anymore. I'm Dave, from Scotland UK. I'm 24, have a degree in aeronautical engineering and am currently studying another degree in meteorology. I don't want to offend anyone on the blog so sorry if my rant did. Goodnight, I'll see you all tomorrow
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 416
5411. IKE
12:37 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
Quoting Kristina40:
It seems like this nonsense starts the same time each night. I may have to rethink my ignore list.


Best time to be on here is early morning....5-9 am.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
5410. AllBoardedUp
12:36 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
Quoting IKE:


So does vulgarity.




LOL....nothing on TV this entertaining.
I'm watching Napoleon Dynamite while looking at the blog! Trying to figure out who on this blog best fits his character. I'm thinking 3 letters and its not JFV!
Member Since: July 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 626
5409. Patrap
12:36 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
Quoting SiestaCpl:


Passing you a glass of something strong on the way to dinner....


Ty...phew.

I was a bit pekid..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125537
5406. Kristina40
12:35 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
It seems like this nonsense starts the same time each night. I may have to rethink my ignore list.
Member Since: June 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 760
5403. germemiguel
12:35 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
9N 39W ... interesting ....

Member Since: June 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 74
5402. Tazmanian
12:35 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
Quoting btwntx08:

we know who u r..we can tell by that u spell the(teh)liar



good show
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114049
5401. AllStar17
12:35 AM GMT on July 06, 2010
Where is the new blog?

"My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening."
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5238

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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