A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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Quoting xcool:
look out ROB BIG BIG MOM COME FOR YOU .

Send 96L into TX, we can really use the rain :O)! No wind, just bring a soaking rain to SE TX into N TX, thanks :O)!!
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Quoting Orcasystems:


he isn't worth a ban KOG
i know better its just oh if i could get close for just a MINUTE THATS ALL I WANT
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GOM IR Loop


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128240
Quoting extreme236:


That's crazy.



yup


whats see what the rest of it show
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HWRF takes 96L through the northernmost tip of the Yucatan as a strong tropical storm/weak hurricane and then to Texas. On its way to Texas it remains as a weak system in the GOM because of low TCHP.
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Quoting Bordonaro:

Looks like HWRF is pretty quick to develop 96L into a strong TS/weak Hurricane in 30 hrs.



too me thats a little too fast
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
HWRF 12z 30 hours



That's crazy.
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544. xcool
look out ROB BIG BIG MOM COME FOR YOU .
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
HWRF 12z 30 hours


Looks like HWRF is pretty quick to develop 96L into a strong TS/weak Hurricane in 30 hrs.
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Alex aftermath needs update
Link
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
HWRF 12z 30 hours




oh my
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539. xcool
happy 4 july all
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670
Quoting StormW:
Good afternoon!


Good afternoon Elderly Chief... umm I mean Senior Chief :)
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HWRF 12z 30 hours

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536. xcool
ECMWF come in 45min
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


he isn't worth a ban KOG
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Good afternoon Strm.Hope you enjoyed church today.Im sure you did.
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533. IKE
Buoy 42057 @ 16.8N and 81.5W....

Wind Direction (WDIR): ESE ( 110 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 27.2 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 33.0 kts

5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 7.9 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 6 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 5.2 sec
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.87 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.01 in ( Falling )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.2 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.4 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 76.1 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 89.8 °F
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This is the clearest case I have ever seen for when someone says "video games will rot your brain"
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96L 12Z HWRF towards TX


Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11154
LMAO @ KOTG
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
listen up cockroach your about to get stomp on


vote for best post of the week!
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noted
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Quoting extreme236:


I don't know, maybe. ECMWF seems pretty sure it's going to hit Mexico.
I'm thinking that the 12z ECMWF might show a shift to the right.
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Quoting ThePlywoodState:
Good to see you too, Ontario bear!
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
12Z CMC takes 96L to LA in ~60 hours.

I noticed CMC is developing the area of disturbed weather near the Leeward Islands and shooting it up the East Coast of the US, keeping it safely offshore.
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Keep asking the questions, there are plenty of people here that are happy to answer them.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10276
Aussie. Sorry to hear the sad news, man.

Here, it is raining, since 7:00 am without stopping. A constant heavy drizzle. Nothing to worry about. Looks like Tobago is getting it heavier now...

BBL.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
That's basically what forecasted steering currents will yield for. I don't think 96L will go over the Yucatan but rather the Yucatan channel from what I'm seeing.


I don't know, maybe. ECMWF seems pretty sure it's going to hit Mexico.
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No dear you did not offend me nor did anyone else.I just misunderstood what he said.I thank you and KOTG for all your wonderful information.Keep it coming.LOL>>>>>>>
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Sorry to hear of your loss Aussie, condolences. Out for 4th of July festivities. Final thought I think 96l plays for FSU so I am predicting wide right. At least some of these systems are using up some of the heat content of the water. If we can get enough activity maybe this will inhibit the big one this year, I doubt it.Happy safe holiday, remember to think before you light the fuse or point that gun, if you blow off your own arm that's bad, if you blow off someone Else's the pain ain't going away so easily.
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457 mrsalagranny "what is the Herbert Box?"

Drop the 'r' for the Hebert Box.
Now, LightningCharmer, was the above more difficult than displaying rudeness?

blog1533post1453 Skyepony "[ASCAT: 20100704 02:30Z ... lat long: 27.53 -89.11 ...]"

95L's CoC was ~101miles due south of Louisiana's Crowsfoot, and 94miles due ~5degrees south of SSW of DeepwaterHorizon at 28.73667N88.38716W
Has there been a newer ASCAT showing 95L's Center of Circulation?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
My opinion:

95L - Near 0% chance.
96L - 40% chance.
Antilles AOI - 20%.

For the next 48 hours.

Pretty good call Miami. I believe the NHC may increase 96L, maybe to 30%, not 40% yet, they're pretty conservative. I believe 95L is about history & we may see 97L later today or tomorrow.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
12Z CMC takes 96L to LA in ~60 hours.
That's basically what forecasted steering currents will yield for. I don't think 96L will go over the Yucatan but rather the Yucatan channel from what I'm seeing.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
here is your anwser

The Hebert Box was "discovered" in the late 1970s by Paul Hebert (pictured at left). This former NWS & NHC forecaster found many major Hurricanes that hit South Florida had to first pass through these boxes. The first box is located east of Puerto Rico and the second box is located over the Cayman Islands. Every Major Hurricane that passed through Box 2 late in the year, hit the Florida Peninsula prior to 1950. Hebert says that a Hurricane does not have to pass through these boxes to hit, but if they do "you better pay attention". The 1935 Labor day Hurricane that devastated the Florida Keys developed west of this box and Hurricane Andrew passed NE of this box, so there are exceptions to the rule.
This image shows the two Hebert boxes. If Floridians want an indication of a possible hit they need to keep an eye on any hurricane that passes through these boxes. Nearly every major Hurricane that hit S Florida since 1900 passed through these boxes. When major Hurricanes miss these boxes,they virtually always miss South Florida. If a major Hurricane moves into these boxes South Florida really needs to watch out. These boxes approx 335 miles x 335 miles includes the Virgin Islands but not Puerto Rico. The pattern has proven accurate for 9 out of 10 storms storms that developed & hit Dade,Broward & Palm Bch Counties. The following is a list showing Hurricanes that passed through these Boxes,starting with Box #1.


1950 Baker--Alabama....1950 Dog--out to sea....1951 Charlie--Yucatan/Mexico....1952 Baker-- out to sea....1953 Carol--Nova scotia....1954 ALice--Leeward isl out to sea....1955 Connie--N Carolina....1955 Ione--N Carolina....1956 Betsy--N Antilles, PR,Bahamas....1958 Fifi--out to sea....1958 Ilsa--out to sea....1960 DonnaN Antilles,Bahamas,Fla,east seaboard....1963 Edith--windward isl,PR,Hispaniola....1964 Cleo--N Antilles,Hispaniola,Haiti,Cuba,Fla....1966 Faith--N Antilles....1966 Inez--N Antilles,Hispaniola,Haiti,Cuba,Bahamas,Fla,Yucatan,Mex....1967Beulah--Hispaniola,Yucata,S Texas....1975 Eloise--Hispaniola,Fla panhandle....1979 David--Antilles,Hispaniola,Haiti,Fla,Ga,Sc....1984 Klaus--out to sea....1985 Gloria--NE U.S....1989 dean--Bermuda,Newfoundland....1989 Hugo--N Antilles,PR,SC....1990 Klaus-- out to sea....1995 Luis--N Antilles,New foundland....1995 Marilyn--N antilles,VI.PR....1996 Bertha--N antilles,VI,PR,N carolina....1996 Fran--N Carolina....1996 Hortense--PR,Nova scotia....1997 Erika--out to sea....1998 Georges--N antilles,VI,PR,Hispaniola,Haiti,Cuba,Keys,mississippi....1999 Jose--N antilles,VI....1999 Lenny--N antilles....2000 Debby--n antilles,VI,Hispaniola....2004 FrancesBahamas,Treasure coast,Fla....2008 Omar VI.....




BOX #2 (since 1950)
1951 Item Cayman isl,Cuba....1952 FoxCaymans,Cuba,Bahamas....1961 HattieBelize....1981 KatrinaCuba,Bahamas....1988 GilbertYucatan,mexico....1995 RoxanneYucatan....1998 MitchHonduras....2001 irisBelize....2001 MichelleCuba,Bahamas....2004 Charley W cuba,Fla....2005 EmilyYucatan,Mexico....2005 WilmaYucatan,S Fla....2006 Dean Yucatan....


So what does all this mean when a Hurricane passes or develops in the Hebert Box east of Puerto Rico since 1950?
1)N Carolina has as much of a chance to get hit as Florida.
2)20.58% or most go out to sea without hitting land.
3)Only 8.82% make it into the Gulf of Mexico when they pass through the box as a hurricane.
4)Puerto Rico will get hit 20.58% of the time (the highest outside of n Antilles).

What about Box #2,Hurricanes developing or moving through after Oct 1st since 1950?
Cuba & the Bahamas are at highest risk late in the season.

To wrap things up, two significant Hurricanes that hit South Fla did not pass through this box, Andrew 1992, and Betsy 1965!. Data may be slightly off because these boxes were based on data going back to 1900. We chose named storms since 1950 for recognition purposes.

Thank you KOTG.I see now what its all about.
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Hello,

Looks like Atlantic will a week of activity.

96L and new one at Antilles
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12Z CMC takes 96L to LA in ~60 hours.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11154
mrsalagranny,

Reading back, who offended you? (I hope it wasn't me -- I was just trying to be helpful and give you a link to read alot of information about Paul Hebert, even more than the one paragraph that was posted) Rather than me paraphrasing.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10276
Quoting BahaHurican:
Anybody seen the graphic for it recently? That was one of our better forecasting tools.... lol


Umm out of boredom, and with nothing better to do then stir the pot a tad..I put them on my graphics.... I am bad :(

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I knew KOTG, I was responding to Lighting. I took it the same way granny did. ( by mistake )
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
Quoting IKE:
12Z NOGAPS through 180 hours.


I see it's also developing a system well east of the islands in the CATL...interesting.
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Thank you for clearing that up for me.I want to learn the weather just as everyone else does.I know I can ask some silly questions.But if I dont ask then I wont know.But everything is fine.I just didnt want to upset anyone with my questions.
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Quoting ThePlywoodState:


How dare you insult moi that way? :(.
listen up cockroach your about to get stomp on
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Quoting extreme236:
96L will probably be 30% max on the next TWO IMO. Should see a circle east of the Antilles also. Probably a yellow 10% one.
I think they should go more aggressive, although they are probably going with your numbers.
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501. IKE
12Z NOGAPS through 180 hours.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.