A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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Forget the popcorn.Its time for something a lil stronger.Chips and Dip and a cold Dr. Pepper..........LOL!!!!!!Boy it is getting its act together isnt it.Storm if it follows the steering pattern could it then be a threat to Louisiana/Ms?
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Quoting msgambler:
Hey Taz, just forward it to Admin. and ignore him.



thank you
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Quoting StormW:
Forget 95L.
Agree. It basically has a 0% chance of development.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Convection on the increase during the daytime and surface pressures falling when they typically should be rising. Something going on at the surface.

Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30727
Quoting StormW:
I still believe it may go through the channel.


Hi Storm,

I realize it is early but where and how strong do you think this 96L will be? Just from what you are seeing now....
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
Hey Taz, just forward it to Admin. and ignore him.
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
Quoting StormW:
I still believe it may go through the channel.


after looking at those steering currents aloft... If it hits the channel will it make more of a easterly turn after reaching the gulf?
Oh and good 4th of July to you Sir!
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a swirl seems to have formed west/wnw of jamaica

moving NW/NNW at the moment.. it was a mid level spin, but it looks closer to the surface now
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Did the NHC stop putting up floaters?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
96L almost directly over the warm patch of the 110ish kJ cm-2 heat content.


Looks like 96L may be a little slow to develop. Convection is holding its own, she slowly boils away in the Western Caribbean Sea.
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Quoting Drakoen:


It is not over the Yucatan now. Not expected to reach there until Monday evening.
With all that warm water, it could strengthen quickly.jmo
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Quoting ThePlywoodState:


Taz, mail! That outta shut you up for a while, -_-.



that was un call for
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have a great 4th

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635. xcool
"""")
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Quoting ThePlywoodState:


Taz, mail! That outta shut you up for a while, -_-.



re ported



evere one hit re ported
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96L almost directly over the warm patch of the 110ish kJ cm-2 heat content.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Neapolitan:


"Aboslutely drained"? Methinks that's a bit of an overstatement; at best, Alex dropped the SSTs in a swath running along the northern egde of the BOC by a single degree or so. The SSTs in that area could drop several more degrees and still support some nasty stuff.

The TCHP in the BOC area is pretty low because waters a very shallow <500 feet. Athough SST'S have rebounded to 82F. However, IF 96L tracks further northward, then we may have a problem.
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630. xcool
hydrus .yeah very busy August September
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Quoting jlp09550:
GOM disturbance blew up since last night..or at least a little.

This one might surprise all the doomcasters. Lol
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roflmao keeper!
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2351
Decent Weather Channel tropical update:

M. Ressler, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Jul. 4, 2010 12:10 pm ET

The tropics remain quiet around the globe. However, there are a few areas of interest.

The first is in the northern Gulf of Mexico. An area of low pressure has been drifting westward and northwestward along a stalled frontal boundary. This low currently does not have tropical characteristics and is not expected to gain them before it moves ashore. Mid-level dry air is the main inhibitor for this system.

In the western Caribbean, there is a tropical wave that is producing showers and some thunderstorms. In contrast to the system in the northern Gulf, this system in the Caribbean is in an environment that is conducive for development but probably not until it passes across the Yucatan and enters the southern Gulf of Mexico early week.

A westbound tropical wave moving into the Windward and Leeward Islands is producing showers and brief gusty winds. Any chances for development are several days away when it is expected to reach the western Caribbean.

The remnants of the front east of Florida and over the Gulf Stream is in a good position to evolve slowly into a low over the next few days. If the thunderstorms persist, this low could take on tropical characteristics.
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KOTG,

LMFAO... You always have the best smiley graphics...
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Quoting xcool:
old dirty 95L SHOWS LIFE
It looks busy out there now. I cannot imagine what it will be like in August, September and October. If this pattern holds, there will be some really big storms moving into the Gulf. Alex was impressive. Next ones most likely will be more intense.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



hey keep this put him on Ignore
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Looks like Mexico/Texas might have to take another one for the team. I'm not sure if we can do this all season long, though. Where's all the SHEER?
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2351
622. xcool
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and overe loop eddy and overe BP
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If you ask me, Alex just "stirred the pot" of hot water...

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Quoting StormW:
I still believe it may go through the channel.
I agree. Steering forces it towards the channel.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting ThePlywoodState:


Perdon, was that a threat, analfabeto? Ooooooohhhhhhhhh, you are certainly asking for it now, Keeps. Oh, admin................
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Quoting Neapolitan:


"Aboslutely drained"? Methinks that's a bit of an overstatement; at best, Alex dropped the SSTs in a swath running along the northern egde of the BOC by a single degree or so. The SSTs in that area could drop several more degrees and still support some nasty stuff.
No, he literally drained ocean heat content.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting wfyweather:
guys.... Alex absolutely drained the gulf of mexico of warm waters... 96L may develop into a tropical depression or even a tropical storm... but it will not measure up to Alex.... unless it stalls or something and lets the heat content build back up


"Aboslutely drained"? Methinks that's a bit of an overstatement; at best, Alex dropped the SSTs in a swath running along the northern egde of the BOC by a single degree or so. The SSTs in that area could drop several more degrees and still support some nasty stuff.
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Some slow organization is definitely taking place.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting IKE:
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
AND SURFACE PRESSURES ARE BEGINNING TO FALL IN THE AREA.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ..........


How is it suppose to develop if it's heading generally WNW @ 15 mph? That places it over the Yucatan.

Now if they said it was moving NW then I agree it has a shot within 48 hours.


It is not over the Yucatan now. Not expected to reach there until Monday evening.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30727
Quick. Someone hide the red crayon from the NHC...

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70mph-80mph winds in Scotland today - not tropical, but unusual for July in the UK!
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96L 12Z GFDL graphics.
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Quoting extreme236:
Well, I guess no circle east of the Antilles yet.


It isnt needed just yet. Theres no guidance support plus conditions arent that favorable. They know it needs to be watched in 3-5 days... but not in the next 48 hours.
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Quoting extreme236:
Well, I guess no circle east of the Antilles yet.


you can all ways E mail the nhc
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LOL, GFDL kills 96L in 12 hours. It did the same thing with 93L for those who remember.



yeah and it kept alex as a tropical storm in the gulf, too... it was a CAT2
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604. IKE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
AND SURFACE PRESSURES ARE BEGINNING TO FALL IN THE AREA.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...........


How is it suppose to develop if it's heading generally WNW @ 15 mph? That places it over the Yucatan.

Now if they said it was moving NW then I agree it has a shot within 48 hours.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Well, I guess no circle east of the Antilles yet.
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Quoting xcool:
IS JFV HERE



yup he be banned
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The images from the LSU site are creating havoc on my internet connection

Every other page loads fine for me and when there are no LSU images on the page here it loads fine as well

Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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