A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129767
Quoting Levi32:
96L is unlikely to be a problem for Louisiana. This is another northern Mexico or south Texas problem.


I do not think this is the case. The ridge is not as strong as it was during Alex.
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Quoting Bordonaro:

C) Weak Hurricane.


you mean D
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115453
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Station 42057 - Western Caribbean
16.834 N 81.501 W


Conditions at 42057 as of
(1:50 pm EDT)
1750 GMT on 07/04/2010:

Wind Direction (WDIR): ESE ( 120 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 27.2 kts
ind Gust (GST): 33.0 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 8.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.2 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.86 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.03 in ( Falling )
Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.4 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 75.6 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 87.4 °F



And we're back to the same buoy that we were at when Alex was developing. Unbelievable lol.

The fact that we already have a code orange just a couple days after Alex means that we are entering the real season, Alex wasn't a sporadic early storm, he was the beginning of a long consistent onslaught...
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746. xcool
MiamiHurricanes09 yeah .i posting more image
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Quoting cooldayr:
Ok poll time

Do you think invest 96 will

A) fall apart
B) become a tropical depression
C) become a tropical storm
D) become a weak hurricane
E) become a major hurricane
D.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting xcool:
ECMWF trending further north as expected.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting cooldayr:
Ok poll time

Do you think invest 96 will

A) fall apart
B) become a tropical depression
C) become a tropical storm
D) become a weak hurricane
E) become a major hurricane


C and D sound reasonable.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cooldayr:
Ok poll time

Do you think invest 96 will

A) fall apart
B) become a tropical depression
C) become a tropical storm
D) become a weak hurricane
E) become a major hurricane

C) Weak Hurricane.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Gulf Of Mexico - False Color RGB Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129767
081

WHXX01 KWBC 041810

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1810 UTC SUN JUL 4 2010



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952010) 20100704 1800 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

100704 1800 100705 0600 100705 1800 100706 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 27.6N 90.0W 28.8N 91.2W 30.1N 92.1W 31.2N 92.9W

BAMD 27.6N 90.0W 28.2N 91.1W 28.8N 92.2W 29.5N 93.2W

BAMM 27.6N 90.0W 28.4N 91.0W 29.3N 91.9W 30.3N 92.8W

LBAR 27.6N 90.0W 28.4N 90.5W 29.2N 90.9W 30.2N 91.3W

SHIP 20KTS 17KTS 18KTS 21KTS

DSHP 20KTS 17KTS 18KTS 21KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

100706 1800 100707 1800 100708 1800 100709 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 32.3N 93.7W 33.6N 96.0W 34.2N 99.3W 35.0N 102.7W

BAMD 30.4N 94.2W 32.3N 96.7W 34.4N 98.6W 36.6N 97.9W

BAMM 31.4N 93.7W 33.3N 96.1W 34.8N 98.1W 36.0N 99.5W

LBAR 31.2N 91.6W 33.9N 92.7W 36.0N 92.3W 38.4N 89.1W

SHIP 25KTS 34KTS 33KTS 25KTS

DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 27.6N LONCUR = 90.0W DIRCUR = 345DEG SPDCUR = 5KT

LATM12 = 27.3N LONM12 = 89.5W DIRM12 = 258DEG SPDM12 = 7KT

LATM24 = 27.6N LONM24 = 87.6W

WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 70NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I dont think 95L will have enough room/time to do much in the way of development.
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738. xcool
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Ok poll time

Do you think invest 96 will

A) fall apart
B) become a tropical depression
C) become a tropical storm
D) become a weak hurricane
E) become a major hurricane
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


Could be a problem but I'm not nearly as worried about it as the other two features in the deep tropics. I actually really don't think much will come of it.
Although 96L has a chance to become a hurricane (small chance though) I'm much more worried with the high amplitude wave just east of the lesser Antilles.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
NOAA GOM ADDS Viz loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129767
Quoting Levi32:
96L is unlikely to be a problem for Louisiana. This is another northern Mexico or south Texas problem.
I think the Tropical wave by the Antilles will be problem for the U.S. in time. Might be our fist major hurricane to make landfall this season. jmo
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22582
To summarize what most seem to be saying. 95L has too much dry air and shear. Maybe a strong rain and moderate wind event from LA to TX. 96L looks to be following in Alex's footsteps. Probably a little less intense but a little more east of where Alex went. We are also playing dot to dot from GOM to Africa. A few areas to watch in the coming days. Is that basically it?
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Quoting Levi32:
96L is unlikely to be a problem for Louisiana. This is another northern Mexico or south Texas problem.


Probably going to take the same track Alex took last week.
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Back later.
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Station 42057 - Western Caribbean
16.834 N 81.501 W


Conditions at 42057 as of
(1:50 pm EDT)
1750 GMT on 07/04/2010:


Wind Direction (WDIR): ESE ( 120 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 27.2 kts
ind Gust (GST): 33.0 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 8.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.2 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.86 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.03 in ( Falling )
Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.4 F
Dew Point (DEWP): 75.6 F
Heat Index (HEAT): 87.4 F

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
If 96L consolidates a real center, we'll be able to track it better. If a center develops and passes 20N before reaching the Yucatan, then Texas will have to watch this carefully. If it crosses the Yucatan south of that, then Mexico has to worry more, just like with Alex.
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is that the cmc putting 96l off the coast of la in 48 hrs? hard to believe...but it does show the bermuda high backing off.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129767
96L has the oppurtunity to come in further north than Alex did.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30813
good sunny 4th of july from key west current weather:
Key West NAF, Florida (Airport)
Updated: 17 min 16 sec ago

89 °F
Clear
Humidity: 57%
Dew Point: 72 °F
Wind: 8 mph from the SSE

Pressure: 30.01 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 96 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 16 out of 16
Pollen: 2.90 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 3 ft

Everyone celebrate safely
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
I don't like the wave west of 96L.. I'm surprised the NHC hasn't mentioned it yet. Lack of model support?
East.
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Quoting StormW:


As convection flares up like that associated with 95L, being basically surrounded by dry air, when a thunderstorm fires up like such, it sucks in a lot of the air surrounding it. So, as it's growing, it will suck in dry air until it collapses.
Wonder if 96L is moving more North north west going to the weakness in the GOM,and may go thru western Cuba and not the Yucatan channel,the satellite presentation have the clouds moving more NNW? any comments on this obeservation?
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Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Levi, what about this mess to the east of Florida?


Could be a problem but I'm not nearly as worried about it as the other two features in the deep tropics. I actually really don't think much will come of it.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Impressive -80˚C cloud tops can be noted.


Outflow looking VERY GOOD already. Can someone post the MSLP map. Thanks :o)
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Quoting tropicfreak:


Oh ok! Thanks. I live in VA and we have been bone dry, reason? storms move down '-64 to richmond and once they get there they fizzle out, my lawn is burnt to the core been so hot. It would be nice if we had a nice good soaker from a tropical system.


Same thing in Baltimore. We need rain now!
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I don't like the wave west of 96L.. I'm surprised the NHC hasn't mentioned it yet. Lack of model support?
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
96L is unlikely to be a problem for Louisiana. This is another northern Mexico or south Texas problem.
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Levi, what about this mess to the east of Florida?
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96L looks good conditions to developed
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Previously the Jul 3 12Z model cycle developed in that area and moved a system towards the SE coast. Since then the models have backed off and no longer show that, but things could change.


Oh ok! Thanks. I live in VA and we have been bone dry, reason? storms move down I-64 to richmond and once they get there they fizzle out, my lawn is burnt to the core been so hot. It would be nice if we had a nice good soaker from a tropical system.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Cyclonic rotation beginning to become even more evident on MIMIC-TPW as of late. Buoy 42057 around the system is also reporting a decrease in pressure and an increase in winds. Convection also beginning to increase, even some -80˚C cloud tops can be noted.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Afternoon!! Checking in before festivities!
Happy 4th! Don't blow any digits off today!

Looks like 96L has decided to wake up and join the party.
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Quoting ThePlywoodState:
I've updated my blog, folks! Comments are welcome. Thanks, all. Happy reading. Hopefully you all will find it interesting. It took me quite a whiel to complete, :).


Where's this Capital Hill you speak of?
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95L is headed for landfall around Morgan City LA tomorrow and that's where most of the rain should be


Member Since: January 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529
Quoting tropicfreak:


We could see them bump it up to 50% this evening at 8pm advisory based on how well this is organizing, I think this is the one that will become bonnie. what do you all think?


quite possible
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30813
95L is dead. 96L and the wave over Barbados are big problems that have to be watched.
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Quoting tropicfreak:


We could see them bump it up to 50% this evening at 8pm advisory based on how well this is organizing, I think this is the one that will become bonnie. what do you all think?


I think so to....
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
Quoting tropicfreak:


We could see them bump it up to 50% this evening at 8pm advisory based on how well this is organizing, I think this is the one that will become bonnie. what do you all think?

Affirmative.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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